Mike Trout returns to the Angels tomorrow.
I‘ve tried to think of any player that I’ve been more excited to see hit the major leagues than Trout, and I can’t think of anyone. No one comes close.
Why?
I’ve followed baseball since the late 1980’s, which means that I’ve enjoyed the full careers of four of the top, what, ten pitchers who have ever pitched (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro). I’ve watched six out of the ten all-time home run leaders (Bonds, A-Rod, Griffey, Sosa, Thome, Mac) slug baseballs into various parts of the stratosphere (or more accurately, the upper levels of the troposphere).
So how come I’ll be getting up at 5:00 a.m. on a Sunday, just to watch the Angels play Cleveland?
I think there are three reasons:
1) The players most like Mike Trout are players I saw at the ends of their careers: Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson.
Tim Raines, as a twenty-year old player in AAA Denver in 1980, posted the following batting line:
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
108
|
429
|
105
|
152
|
23
|
11
|
6
|
64
|
0.354
|
0.439
|
0.501
|
This is an impressive live, but I have no idea what the hype surrounding Raines was like in 1980. This is because I was one-year old in 1980, and the Triple-A happenings in Denver weren’t covered in the newspapers I had access to.
Rickey Henderson posted a similar line in Ogden a year earlier:
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
71
|
259
|
66
|
80
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
44
|
0.309
|
0.43
|
0.448
|
This is similar. Henderson was a year younger than Raines (nineteen), and perhaps a little less developed as a hitter. Again, I can only assume that a lot of people talking about Rickey Henderson back then. Like
Rickey Henderson, for instance.
The third would be Eric Davis: I remember the Eric Davis hype, but I don’t think that Davis is quite comparable to Rickey and Raines. For one thing, Davis’ big Triple-A season occurred when he was twenty-three, which is quite a bit different than being nineteen or twenty. For one thing, Davis had legal access to beer.
Also: Davis wasn’t quite like Henderson or Raines. He was a bopper:
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
64
|
206
|
48
|
57
|
10
|
2
|
15
|
38
|
.277
|
.364
|
.563
|
That’s fifteen homers…in 64 games. The thin air of Denver was probably a contributing factor: we should be grateful that no one’s tried to put a major league park in that city. That would be silly.
So that’s one factor: Trout is the first speedy player in a long time, who also projects to be insanely good at hitting a baseball. He’s has a shot to be the first Raines since Raines; the first Rickey since Rickey. I missed the prime years of those players: I get to enjoy the full career of Mike Trout.
2. Trout can help turn the page.
Sorry…but the last couple decades have been skewed a bit too much towards hitting. Just one player stole more than forty bases last year…one player (Brett Gardner). The year before had three players steal more 50 bags. Same for 2010. No one’s come close to the century mark. No one’s taken a swing at it since Rickey in 1988 (93 steals).
And…the big stolen base guys are mostly marginal players: Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras, Chone Figgins, Luis Castillo, Tony Womack...all of them are fun to watch on the bases, but none are particularly exceptional hitters.
The closest we’ve had, in recent decades, might be Lofton and Beltran. Except Beltran wasn’t the runner that Trout projects to be. And Lofton wasn’t the hitter that Trout projects to be. Take Beltran’s bat and Lofton’s legs…that’s Mike Trout.
We’re in a period of ‘turning the page’ on the steroid era…one reason I’m excited about Trout is that he’s a player that didn’t really exist in the previous era. (Or it did exist, right up until Barry Bonds decided that he wasn’t getting enough attention.)
Trout is going to be one of the big stars of the post-steroid era…I think that part of his ‘star’ will come from the fact that he isn’t a brawny power-first talent.
3. Trout might be better than Henderson and Raines.
Here are Raines and Henderson’s numbers in the year before they reached the majors:
|
Name
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
Raines
|
108
|
429
|
105
|
152
|
23
|
11
|
6
|
64
|
.354
|
.439
|
.501
|
|
Henderson
|
71
|
259
|
66
|
80
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
44
|
.309
|
.430
|
.448
|
And here are Trout’s cumulative numbers, from 2011 and 2012:
|
Name
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
Trout
|
111
|
430
|
103
|
146
|
22
|
18
|
12
|
39
|
.340
|
.426
|
.558
|
Mike Trout has slightly better numbers than Henderson or Raines…at least a bit more pop than either of the other two. And while Trout’s numbers a) are a combination of AA and AAA statistics, and b) sandwiched around a less-than-stellar stint in the majors, I think the upside for Trout has no recent parallel.
* * *
The big debut tomorrow is the first game of Bryce Harper, who has had a less-than-impressive stint in AAA (.250 batting average, a .708 OPS). A couple of thoughts about Harper:
1) Harper will struggle. I have no doubt about that.
2) I think it’s smart for the Nationals to bring him up. They’re contending now, and the team isn’t getting a lot of production out of Xavier Nady. With Zimmerman making his annual trip to the DL, and with the team ERA bound to go up (it’s at 2.20 right now), the Nationals are going to need offense. There’s a reasonable argument that Harper is their best solution right now.
3)Off track a bit…what are the odds that Harper turns out to be the villain of the current generation, in the same way that A-Rod and Bonds played the villain role in the last era. The same way that Ted Williams was. Ty Cobb.
I’d put the odds at better than 50%.
That’s just a hunch, of course…Bryce Harper might be the sweetest guy in the world. But it sure seems that every time I hear about Harper, it’s because he’s done something mildly dislikeable. There was that time he was ejected from the 2010 Junior College World Series, for drawing a line in the sand so that the ump knew where he missed. There was the famous incident where he blew a kiss to a pitcher after hitting a homerun. He’s been tossed from minor league games for bitching about called strikes….he just seems to do a lot to draw negative attention to himself. Which leads me to…
4) I think that Harper should just embrace the villain role. He should go full-on with it. He should come in tomorrow and tell Matt Kemp, ‘Wait ‘til you see Harper hit.’ He should taunt the second-place Braves on Twitter. He can pile on fines from the Commish’s office for criticizing umps. Just be the asshole, Bryce…embrace your inner bad guy. It’d be great fun for baseball.
* * *
Lost in the hype of Trout and Harper is the tremendous start that Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is having.
Altuve, still just twenty-one, is hitting .377 on the season, with good power (5 doubles, two triples, and a homer). He’s a perfect 4-for-4 on the base paths. Quite a start. There are a few reasons to watch the Astros.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes questions, comments, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.