Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks improved by a staggering 29 games, going from 65 wins in 2010 to 94 wins (and a playoff spot) in 2011.
This was the fourth significant improvement that the Diamondbacks have experienced in their fourteen year history as a franchise:
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1998
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65 wins
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|
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1999
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100 wins
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+35
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2004
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51 wins
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|
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2005
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77 wins
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+26
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2006
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76 wins
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|
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2007
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90 wins
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+14
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2010
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65 wins
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|
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2011
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94 wins
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+29
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Improving by fourteen wins is not exceedingly rare…it’s a significant accomplishment, but nothing shocking. But an improvement of 25 wins is quite dramatic…it’s amazing that the Diamondbacks have accomplished this three times in their very brief history as a franchise.
So: which team will surprise us in 2012?
The Criteria
(Just to catch up new readers: this is the third year I’ve written this article. You’re welcome to go back and see how I did in
2011 or
2009.)
Back in 1990, Bill listed a few indicators for teams that might improve in the following year. Borrowing heavily from that list, here’s a list of fourteen questions to ask, to help determine if a team will improve on the coming season:
-Are the hitters young or old? Are their best years to come, or are their best years behind them?
-Are the pitchers young or old? Are their best years to come?
-Did the team improve during the second half of the season?
-Did the team do well during August/September?
-Assuming that the team posted a losing record: did the team do well the year before that?
-Did the team’s AAA organization do well?
-Did the team’s AA organization do well?
-Did the team underperform their Pythagorean W-L record?
-Does the team have good management? Do they utilize talent well?
-Is the team’s division open for challengers?
-Did the team acquire new talent in the off-season?
-Is the team getting significant players back from injuries?
-Does this team have clear and present talent?
-Does this team have a story for how it will be successful?
You can use this list on any team that you’d like: if you’re a Pirates fan or a Cubs fan, you can access most of this information in about the time it takes to toast bread.
Some of these measures are objective: a team is either young or old. A team either has a strong September or a weak one. A team underperforms their Pythagorean W-L record, or a team matches that record, or they over-perform that record.
But…some of the metrics are subjective: how do you decide if a team has good or bad management? What constitutes clear and present talent? Is Brett Lawrie clear and present talent? How about Chris Davis? And what’s this business about a ‘story’ for success?
A Quick Disclaimer
We’re looking for a surprise team here. Last year, the Brewers jumped from 77 wins to 96 wins (and a spot in the playoffs). I did not pick them as the team most likely to surprise because most people thought they’d be contenders: they had added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their rotation, and they were expected to be strong contenders in the Central Division. They improved significantly last year, but almost no one was surprised by their improvement.
For similar reasons, I won’t be picking the Miami Marlins as ‘surprise’ candidates for 2012. The Marlins added Jose Reyes (the best signing of the offseason), Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They hired Ozzie Guillen to manage their team (possibly the second-best signing of the offseason). The Marlins have Josh Johnson coming back from injury, and they’ve taken fliers on two pitchers I really like: Zambrano and LeBlanc. They have Mike Stanton, who is one of my three or four favorite players in baseball. They have Hanley Ramirez. They have the artist formerly known as Leo Nunez. The Marlins are a good team.
I don’t know that they would be a surprise team. Considering all their additions and the talent they already had, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins are strong contenders in 2012.
The Surprise Team For 2012
Last year, I predicted that the Cleveland Indians would surprise the baseball world. They did surprise us: through mid-July, the Cardiac Clevelanders had a hold on first-place in the American League Central. They didn’t stay in first, but it was a fun ride.
Well, I’m pleased to announce that we’re staying in the American League Central: the Kansas City Royals will be the surprise team of 2012.
Let’s run through the criteria:
Are the hitters young or old? Are their best years to come, or are their best years behind them?
Very young. The Royals have the youngest hitters in the American League, by a significant margin. According to baseballreference.com, the average age of Royals hitters last season was 25.8, which was almost two years younger than the next youngest team, the Minnesota Twins (27.5). Every other team in the league was at least two years older than the Royals hitters.
Are the pitchers young or old? Are their best years to come?
Again, very young. The Royals pitchers are the youngest in the league (26.4), tied with Cleveland, and a hair ahead of Seattle.
Did the team improve during the second half of the season?
Yes. The Royals were 37-54 prior to the All-Star break (.407). After the break, they played .500 baseball (35-35).
Did the team do well during August/September?
No/Yes. The Royals had a poor August (10-19). But they were one of the best teams in baseball in September (15-10). They rattled off a nice seven-game win streak late in the season.
Assuming that the team posted a losing record: did the team do well the year before that?
No, obviously. The Royals haven’t had a winning season since 2003. They haven’t been over 90 wins since George Brett left the team. They have no track record of recent success.
Did the team’s AAA organization do well?
Yes. The Omaha Storm Chasers finished first in their division of the Pacific Coast League. Also: ‘Storm Chasers’ is a great name for a minor league team located in Omaha.
Did the team’s AA organization do well?
Yes. The Northwestern Arkansas Naturals finished second in their division of the Texas League, a game back. The team name is a play on Arkansas as the ‘Natural’ state…this is probably a case of doubling down on a terrible idea. The other AA franchise in Arkansas is the equally bold ‘Arkansas Travels.’
The name ‘Naturals’ was the winner in a fan poll. The second-place name was the ‘Thunder Chickens.’ Just me: I’d rather root for a Thunder Chicken than a Traveler or a Natural.
Did the team underperform their Pythagorean W-L record?
Oh yes, they did. The Royals went 71-91…but their expected W-L record was seven games better: 78-84. According to Pythagoras, the Royals were the unluckiest team in the American League last year.
This is particularly important in considering the Royals chances in 2012. If they were actually a 72-win club – if that was their real level of talent – then they’d have to make an improvement of 20-25 games to contend in the AL Central. That’s a steep climb.
But…climbing from a 78-win team to a contending isn’t nearly as difficult: lots of teams improve by fifteen games in a year. It’s not that rare.
Does the team have good management? Do they utilize talent well?
Well…I think there’s some evidence that the management is getting smart. For one thing, they let the kids play. Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, and Eric Hosmer each got real shots to stay on the team, and each one performed capably. Alex Gordon was more than capable: he was an All-Star caliber player. They gave their young players a chance to play, and the kids didn’t disappoint.
The second positive is the trade of Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. This is a sell-high/buy-low move: Cabrera was very good in 2012, but it was a career-year across the board. And Cabrera is exactly the kind of player the Royals have too much of: a solid hitter who doesn’t walk. That’s the entire lineup in Kansas City: Hosmer walked 34 times in 563 plate appearances. Getz was at 30/429. Escobar was at 25/598. Francouer was 37/601. Moustakas was 22/365. About the only guys who walk a bit are Butler and Gordon.
(This is an aside: I wonder if the key to the Royals season is figuring out a way to get Kila Ka’aihue into the lineup. Ka’aihue has a career on-base percentage of .412 in AAA, with 271 walks in 353 games. I don’t know how the Royals could get his bat into their lineup, but if I were running the team, I’d make an effort to do so).
Melky walked 35 times in 658 plate appearances…his walk rate was one of the worst in the game. I don’t mean that he’s a bad player, but he is a player who possesses an obvious weakness. The Royals have too many guys with the same weakness…he was expendable.
Jonathan Sanchez, too, has a glaring problem: he walks far too many batters. But Sanchez has an exceptional ability to strike out hitters: his career rate is 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. That rate is exceeded by just two starting pitcher in the major leagues: Tim Lincecum and Stephen Strasburg. (Clayton Kershaw is also at 9.4).
I don’t know that Jonathan Sanchez will figure out how to throw enough strikes to be an effective major league pitcher…but I think he’s exactly the kind of player the Royals needed to take a gamble on. The KC rotation is thin….if Sanchez can have a season similar to 2010 (193 IP, 205 strikeouts, 3.07 ERA), the Royals will have at least one spot on the rotation sorted out.
Is the team’s division open for challengers?
Yes. The Tigers are the clear favorites going into the season. They won 95 games last year, but they had luck on their side: their Pythagorean W-L record was 89-73. The official standings had the Royals 24 games behind Detroit….objectively, the difference between the two clubs is half that, about 12 games.
The Tigers had two MVP-level players last year: Cabrera and Verlander. They’ve added a third in Prince Fielder, whom the Tigers signed to replace the injured Victor Martinez.
Among the rest of the teams in the Central, there are a few reasons for optimism, and plenty of flaws. The Twins should bounce back from an ‘everything-in-the-world-went-wrong’ season, but a lot rests on whether Mauer, Morneau, and Liriano can return to some level of productivity. Cleveland should feel confident about their excellent 2011 season, but it is difficult for any team to take great strides forward in consecutive seasons. And the South Siders quietly managed a .500 second-half, despite some historically bad seasons from their middle-order hitters.
But the Tigers are the frontrunners: they’re the ones the Royals should be targeting. I think Detroit is a weaker favorite than they look at first glance. With the rest of the division in flux, I think there’s a space.
Did the team acquire new talent in the off-season?
Not really. The only acquisition that has any chance of swinging the Royals towards the playoffs is Jonathan Sanchez….while I’m optimistic about him, he does not compare with Reyes or Wilson or Fielder. The Royals also acquired Jonathan Broxton and Yuniesky Betancourt.
Is the team getting significant players back from injuries?
Again, no.
Does this team have clear and present talent?
Yes. They have scads of talent. Hosmer and Moustakas are dynamic, exciting young players. Butler can hit. And Alex Gordon had an excellent, MVP-level season in the outfield.
Does this team have a story for how it will be successful?
Sure. The young hitters need to take their natural strides forward. And the pitching staff needs to find some stability.
The offense is there: last year the Royals scored 730 runs, which put them behind Boston, New York, Texas, Detroit and Toronto. The Royals hitters are young: they should gain ground on the teams that are ahead of them. If the Royals are to contend, they are going to have to outscore the Tigers.
The pitching is the giant question mark for 2012: the Royals led the American League in walks allowed, and had one of the worst starting rotations and bullpens in the league. There is not a savior on the staff, or in the minor leagues. The best the Royals can hope is that their pitchers keep them in games long enough for the bats to come alive.
So that’s it: I think the Royals will surprise us this year.
Extra Bonus Surprise Teams
There are two other teams whose fans should be optimistic about 2012….two teams who have strong indicators, and could surprise us.
One is Oakland. The Oakland Athletics were a .500 team during the second half. They went 14-12 in September. Their expected W-L record was three games better than their actual W-L record. They have young pitchers. Their Triple-A team went a staggering 88-56 last year, and their Single-A squads were all winners.
Of course, they are in direct competition with the Rangers and Angels, two of the strongest teams in the American League West. But….if one of those teams falters (think: Angels), and an extra playoff team is added, there is a shot for the Athletics to reach playoff baseball again.
The other team is San Diego, just down the coast.
The Padres record last year was 71-91. But…their expected W-L record was 79-83. The underperformed their expectations by eight games, the most in baseball last year. They were a .500 club.
And: they were a contending club in 2010: one of the best indicators of a ‘surprise’ team is whether or not they did well two years earlier. The Padres almost won the NL West in 2009…that is a strong positive in their books.
The Padres are a young team…they are not as young as the Royals, but they have youth on their side. Their Triple-A team finished below .500, but their Double-A team finished an excellent 94-46.
Most importantly: the Padres have a lot of good players whom no one has heard of. Nick Hundley posted an OPS+ of 132 for the Padres…he is their catcher. Jesus Guzman hit .312 over half a season in that ballpark, tallying an OPS+ of 139. Chase Headley and Cameron Maybin were good, solid contributors.
Like the A’s, the Padres will have some tough competition: there are no weak teams in the NL West. But…the Padres could surprise us.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments and questions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.