Let’s start with last year.
Last year, I picked the Detroit Tigers as the team most likely to surprise us.
This didn’t happen. The Tigers actually lost ground, dropping from 77 wins to 66 wins in 2022.
Detroit had a snake-bite season, or a season with multiple snakebites:
- Riley Green, touted as one of the top-ten prospects in baseball, broke his foot in spring training. He didn’t play until June.
- Spencer Torkelson, the team’s other vaunted prospect, was given a long leash, but he couldn’t stay above the Mendoza line, and was eventually demoted to Triple-A.
- Javier Baez, the team’s big offseason acquisition, was a complete bust. Baez is a player who has stretches where he looks like one of the best players on the planet, and longer stretches where he looks like a blind man trying to hit by hearing the hiss of a fastball. Last year, it was all blind-man-swinging-at-sounds.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, the other big acquisition, sprained his ribcage in May and then left the team due to personal matters.
- Casey Mize, the number two starter on the team, blew out his arm in early April, necessitating Tommy John surgery.
- Tarik Skubal - the remaining starting pitcher with any previous success in the majors – made some terrific strides forward as a pitcher. Skubal was the only good story that came out of Detroit last year, so of course he went on the IL in August for arm fatigue. So it goes.
I think of last year’s Tigers, and I think of probabilities. If you started in March and ran that team through a whole-universe simulation, I don’t think there’d be many outcomes worse than last year. Almost everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Things went wrong right from the outset, and then the wrong just kept piling on. It was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season.
I won’t pick the Tigers again, because a) they don’t light up any of the indicators I typically look at to consider a ‘surprise’ team, and b) it’s no fun to go back to the same well every year.
But I am rooting for Detroit: I think they unlucky last year, not foolish. I remain bullish on the careers of Riley Green and Spencer Torkelson, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the turn around I imagined last year happens in 2023.
* * *
Here are the losing teams from 2022, AL and NL. I’m going to list them according to their chances of reaching the playoffs, according to FanGraphs:
|
A.L.
|
2022 W-L
|
2023 FG Playoff %
|
|
Twins
|
78--84
|
46.5%
|
|
Angels
|
73-89
|
40.4%
|
|
Rangers
|
68-94
|
36.9%
|
|
Red Sox
|
78-84
|
29.5%
|
|
Athletics
|
60-102
|
6.0%
|
|
Royals
|
65-97
|
4.8%
|
|
Tigers
|
66-96
|
2.7%
|
According to the good folks at FanGraphs, four losing teams in the American League have a decent-to-good shot of reaching the playoffs in 2023. The Twins are a coin-flip to return to the playoffs, and have a 34.9% chance of winning their division, trailing the Guardians but ahead of the White Sox. The Angels have longer odds to win their division, but they still have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for a season, which is better than any other team in baseball can boast.
The Rangers went out and purchased a rotation headed by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. The Red Sox, stuck in a strong division, are hoping for a rebound campaign from Chris Sale, and an impact season from Japanese star Masataka Yoshida.
The A’s, Royals, and Tigers are longer shots in the league.
The senior circuit:
|
N.L
|
2022 W-L
|
2023 FG Playoff %
|
|
Marlins
|
69-93
|
19.0%
|
|
D'Backs
|
74-88
|
11.9%
|
|
Cubs
|
74-88
|
8.7%
|
|
Pirates
|
62-100
|
4.6%
|
|
Reds
|
62-100
|
0.6%
|
|
Nationals
|
55-107
|
0.2%
|
|
Rockies
|
68-94
|
0.1%
|
No losing team from the National League shows as being nearly as strong a contender for the playoffs as the Twins, Angels, or Rangers. From the lot, the Marlins have the best chance according to FanGraphs, though like the Red Sox, a lot will have to go wrong in other organizations for Miami’s contact-and-pitching approach to net them a playoff slot.
Arizona improved a lot last year, and they have some talented prospects about to hit the majors in the next few years. But they’re in the same position as Miami and Boston: a tough division with big-spending teams.
The NL Central is softer, so the predictions market gives the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds each a puncher’s chances. The Nationals are rebuilding. I’m not convinced the Rockies organization understands what sport they’re trying to win.
So give the list a look, and then feel free to comment below. Which team will surprise us in 2023?
* * *
I had my answer almost immediately.
Typically, when I’ve done this exercise in the past, I look at a number of variables – or indicators – of future success. I check minor league team records, prospect rankings, a team’s record in the previous August and September, and over the second half. I check how old the hitters and pitchers of a team are, how the team performed in the season before last year. I even check their Pythagorean record, to check if there is some ‘luck’ element to their future forecast.
This year, I didn’t have to go very far along in the process. This year, there was an easy choice, right at the outset.
The team that will surprise us in 2023 are the Chicago Cubs.
Let’s look, first, at the second-half performances of the teams from our losing list:
|
Team
|
W-L
|
Win%
|
|
CHC
|
39-31
|
.557
|
|
LAA
|
34-36
|
.486
|
|
ARI
|
34-36
|
.486
|
|
BOS
|
30-39
|
.435
|
|
DET
|
29-41
|
.414
|
|
KCR
|
29-41
|
.414
|
|
MIN
|
28-40
|
.412
|
|
OAK
|
28-41
|
.406
|
|
CIN
|
28-43
|
.394
|
|
TEX
|
27-45
|
.375
|
|
MIA
|
26-45
|
.366
|
|
WSN
|
24-44
|
.353
|
|
COL
|
24-44
|
.353
|
|
PIT
|
23-46
|
.333
|
The Cubs were terrible during the first half of 2022…they were 35-57 at the All-Star break, a half-game out of the cellar in the division.
But they were terrific in the second half: they roared back, winning at a pace that would put them at 90 or 91 wins over a full season.
No one else comes close.
The Angels and Diamondbacks were decent teams during the second half: they each flirted with a .500 record, though they fell short. All the other loser teams were crummy. The Cubs were a strong team.
Moving along: I put a lot of value in how a team performs in August. Why?
Because teams are still trying in August. Come September, a lot of baseball teams have turned their attention towards the next season: they are trading off middle relievers and dragging up prospects. Some good teams have the fortune of spending September preparing for the playoff rush. September is a month of divergent goals. August is still baseball being played straight.
|
Team
|
Aug. W-L
|
|
ARI
|
16-12
|
|
CHC
|
15-15
|
|
MIN
|
14-14
|
|
LAA
|
14-15
|
|
KCR
|
13-16
|
|
BOS
|
12-16
|
|
TEX
|
12-16
|
|
CIN
|
11-17
|
|
OAK
|
10-17
|
|
COL
|
10-18
|
|
DET
|
9-18
|
|
WSN
|
9-18
|
|
PIT
|
9-19
|
|
MIA
|
8-20
|
This chart removes Miami as a contender, at least for me.
I am rooting for Miami, who are being picked by a lot of people as a surprise team. I like the squad: I want a team of single-hitting speedsters to win in 2023.
But the Marlins were absolutely abysmal in August of last year, a month when they should’ve been showing that they could hang with the bigger boys in their division. Their August record is a big strike for me: I do not think the Marlins will be a strong team in 2023.
On the flip-side, this list gives a strong nod to Arizona as a legitimate contender to continue to surprise us. I wrote about Arizona’s chances to surprise us a little
bit in this article, and I think they’re a compelling team to watch. I’m not picking them, but if you’re a fan of the Diamondbacks, you certainly have to like how they performed in August.
How about those mercurial September/October records?
|
Team
|
Sept/Oct W-L
|
|
CHC
|
18-13
|
|
LAA
|
16-15
|
|
DET
|
16-16
|
|
BOS
|
15-16
|
|
MIA
|
14-18
|
|
PIT
|
13-19
|
|
ARI
|
13-20
|
|
COL
|
12-19
|
|
KCR
|
12-19
|
|
OAK
|
11-20
|
|
MIN
|
11-22
|
|
CIN
|
11-22
|
|
WSN
|
11-24
|
|
TEX
|
10-23
|
If their August W-L record removed Miami from consideration, this list makes me very skeptical of Minnesota (11-22) and Texas (10-23) as serious contenders to improve significantly.
Minnesota and Texas ARE being considered as contenders, or at least fringe contenders. I think most people who aren’t picking the Guardians to win the AL Central are picking Minnesota, and I think that a lot of people are expecting the Rangers to leap forward.
I’m a skeptic of the Rangers, and I am more bear-ish on the Twins than most of the projections and prognosticators are. If you have the same record as Washington and Oakland and Cincinnati had in a month – if you close out the year with those teams – you’re going in the wrong direction.
The Angels do well in both months, finishing .500 down the stretch. I think the Angels are a good selection for a surprise team: they have two demigods on their roster, and it is not hard to imagine a successful run if they can surround Ohtani and Trout with competent performers. They should be extra motivated, as another losing year will likely see Ohtani find a home somewhere else along the Pacific coastline.
I have no idea what to make of the Red Sox. I liked their offseason a great deal, and I think that they’ll be better than one or two teams in the AL East, but I don’t think they’ll be better than all of the teams in the division.
Lastly, the Tigers also had a fine close to the season. This bolsters my faith in them a little bit. I’m still a believer in their young players, still a believer that this is a franchise going in the right direction.
But the Cubbies laps everyone else: they were so strong through the second-half of last season, that they are the clear favorites to show a big improvement in 2023.
* * *
Getting under the hood of our surprise team a little:
The Cubs farm system is very much not like the Cubs farm system of the Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber era. That version was a farm system marked by elite prospects; the current Cubs system doesn’t have any high-ceiling prospects coming down the pike, but they have a lot ofgoodprospects who should be able to contribute to the major league team.
The team in the majors was similar: there is no ace pitcher or MVP-level bat on this roster, but the Cubs have competent performers across the positions, depth on the bench and in the rotation, and a strong bullpen. They lost Wilson Contreras to the Cardinals, but they have Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart as a platoon. The big acquisitions over the off-season were Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon: Swanson feels like a strong add, as he moves Nico Hoerner to second base. They also added Cody Bellinger to play centerfield, and Eric Hosmer to platoon at first. If nothing else, this should be a strong defensive team.
The Cubs are playing in a division that just doesn’t have a lot of competitive teams. The Cardinals are very good: they’re almost certainly going to win the NL Central this year. But there isn’t a lot of daylight between the Brewers and Cubs, and the Pirates and Reds aren’t likely to rise significantly in 2023.
The Cubs were a young hitting team: they were the fourth-youngest batting team in the NL last year, trailing Pittsburg, Arizona, and Atlanta. Their pitchers were older. I think it’s better to have young hitters and older pitchers than vice-versa, though that is only a personal prejudice, not a statement of anything more definitive.
And they are a good organization. The team, under manager David Ross and President Jed Hoyer, is led by people who have a decent grasp on the fundamentals of success. Their offseason moves were deliberate and reasoned, and you get the sense that this team will make appropriate adjustments as the season reveals where they stand.
So that’s it. I’d rate my surprise teams as:
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Los Angeles Ohtanis of Troutville
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Detroit Tigers
Who ya got?
David Fleming is a writer living in southwestern Virginia. Not south-southwestern Virginia or southwest-western Virginia, but far enough from D.C. to make it a pain to get there. He welcomes comments and questions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.