In addition to our projected Defensive Runs Saved leaders, which we highlighted in a Stat of the Week a few weeks ago and will be expounded upon in The Fielding Bible—Volume IV to be released on March 1, we provide a spring update to the Bill James Projections each year to account for players who have changed teams and gained or lost apparent playing time as teams have put together their rosters. That update will also be released on March 1, so let’s look at which hitters and pitchers are projected to lead baseball in various categories.
First, here are the projected hitting leaders:
A few of the usual suspects like Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt make their way back on to the projected leaderboards, but the 2015 leaders also have some new blood. Jose Abreu was a star in his first season in MLB, smashing 36 home runs and knocking in 107 runners despite a DL stint that held him to 145 games. This year, we like Abreu to exceed those numbers in a full, healthy season.
George Springer hit 20 home runs in his first major league action in 2014 in only 345 plate appearances. We think he’ll come close to doubling his playing time and home run total in 2015. And while Mike Trout has a healthy lead in projected runs scored, we expect Mookie Betts to play well and benefit from hitting atop the powerful Red Sox lineup in route to scoring 112 runs.
| Projected Pitching Stat Leaders, 2015 |
| Stat |
Player |
Projected Total |
| Wins |
Clayton Kershaw |
21 |
| |
Adam Wainwright |
17 |
| |
Felix Hernandez |
16 |
| |
Stephen Strasburg |
16 |
| Saves |
Trevor Rosenthal |
49 |
| |
Craig Kimbrel |
47 |
| |
Fernando Rodney |
47 |
| |
Aroldis Chapman |
47 |
| ERA |
Clayton Kershaw |
2.37 |
| |
Michael Pineda |
2.74 |
| |
Matt Harvey |
2.84 |
| K |
Yu Darvish |
248 |
| |
Clayton Kershaw |
245 |
| |
Stephen Strasburg |
237 |
Clayton Kershaw will lead both leagues in wins and ERA but fall three strikeouts short of the MLB triple crown for pitchers based on our projections. He’s amazing. He’s joined by other elite starters including Adam Wainwright, Yu Darvish, and Stephen Strasburg at the heads of those lists.
The ERA leaders are particularly interesting. Behind Kershaw, both Michael Pineda and Matt Harvey are coming back from injuries. Pineda was outstanding in 76.1 innings last season, maintaining a 1.89 ERA and a miniscule 0.8 walks per nine innings. He’s been great whenever he’s been healthy in his career, but unfortunately, the healthy stints have been few and far between. Harvey is coming back from Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of the 2014 season.