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World’s #1 Starting Pitcher: Current Rankings

May 3, 2012

                I’ll start this week by just presenting this week’s Starting Pitcher Rankings, and then I’ll do notes after the charts:

 

Prank1 Prank2 Prank3 Prank4 Prank5

 

Notes:

                1)  The top four pitchers are the same as they were last week; however, this doesn’t seem like it can last much longer.   A week ago Roy Halladay was 36 points ahead of Jered Weaver.  Now it’s 9 points.

                2)  The top ten pitchers are the same as they were at the start of the season, except that Tim Lincecum has dropped out of the top 10, and CJ Wilson has moved in.

                3)  The numbers given under headings like "Apr 4",  "Apr 9", "Apr 14" etc. represent the pitcher’s game score for the start that he made in the five-day start window beginning on that day.  

                4)  A blue background in those columns indicates that this was the best game in the major leagues in that five-day window.   Jered Weaver’s no-hitter scored at 95—the best game in the five-day window beginning April 29—so far.   Games played today will still be in that five-day window.  

                5)  A white number on a black background indicates the ten pitchers who have moved up the furthest in the "score" since the start of the season.   A white number on a red background indicates those who have fallen the furthest. 

                6)  The one pitcher who has moved up the furthest since the start of the season is now Jake Peavy, who has moved up since the start of the season from 133rd place to 91st.   The one who has fallen the furthest is Scott Baker, who is falling because he is inactive.  

                7)  The highest-ranked pitcher who began the season unranked is still Lance Lynn, as it has been the last couple of weeks.   He has pitched well every time out.  Second on that list is Yu (Whirling) Darvish. 

                8)  A week ago with these rankings I posted a note saying that there were 24 pitchers in the major leagues who had made at least 3 starts and had pitched well (game score of 50 or higher) every time.    Now there are exactly half that many (12 pitchers) who have made at least four starts and have posted a game score of 50 or higher every time:  Anthony Bass, Kyle Drabek, Ted Lilly, Colby Lewis, Lance Lynn, Jeff Niemann, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Saunders, Stephen Strasburg, Drew Smyly and C. J. Wilson.    Six of the twelve are rookies or near-rookies, counting Strasburg as a near-rookie.  

                9)  Pitchers who score at 500.00 or higher in these rankings have made 74 starts so far this season and have pitched well (Game Score of 50 or higher) is 57 of them, or 77%.    Pitchers who score at 450 to 500 have pitched well in 70% of their starts; 400 to 450, in 64% of their starts, 350 to 400, in 51% of their starts, and 350 or less, also 51% of their starts. 

                10)  In many seasons there is no game by a starting pitcher that scores at less than zero; I think that is true in MOST seasons, but certainly it is true in many seasons.   It is not uncommon for the worst game of the year to be a "3" or something—but already this year we have had two games with negative scores:  -1, by Rick Porcello on April 21, and -13, by AJ Burnett last night.   We also had a "1" on May 1, by Luke Hochevar.   

 

                Thanks for reading.   Bill James

 
 

COMMENTS (7 Comments, most recent shown first)

jemanji
Ya, could be... was thinking of your "Tommy John Pitcher Family," in which a guy gives up lots of singles but nothing else. Thereby (in my question) seldom shutting anybody out, but also seldom getting KO'ed early.

If I remember right, your observation was that these guys are more sensitive to the teams around them, going maybe 17-10 for pennantwinners but 10-17 for cellar dwellers. Of course your comment was pointed to the defense around him probably more than the run support.

There *is* a lot of noise for something so subtle as "standard deviation of game scores" to assert itself. But, baseball is a game in which subtle things assert themselves...
7:56 PM May 5th
 
bjames
I doubt that there are meaningful and exploitable differences in game to game consistency. It's under the general heading of "baseball is too hard for that to happen."
6:15 PM May 5th
 
jemanji
re: comment 8) above.

I wonder whether a high-scoring team (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers) could add 'invisible' value by signing a free agent pitcher who was unusually consistent in his game scores for a given ERA.

With the idea of winning three of four games by 5-3, 7-3, 1-3, and 8-3 rather than winning two of four games by 5-6, 7-1, 1-5, and 8-0.
3:48 PM May 5th
 
jemanji
In chess, performances that are far above expectations get a few 'bonus points' ... a #140 ranked player who performs for three games at #20 level gets a 20% or 50% add to his points for that particular performance. Like adding 15 points rather than 12, or somesuch.

All players have the same opportunity to grab bonus points, of course...

The idea is that if the best player in the tournament is a fast-rising 14-year-old, but that #1 player is ranked #31 going in, the ranking system is not really beneficial to anybody; the system is there in order to provide us information as to who's good.

So they don't make the 14-year-old the #1 player in one week, but they cut into the time during which his ranking is not indicative. No idea whether tennis or golf have similar adjustments in their formulas; probably they don't -
3:44 PM May 5th
 
bjames
I'll consider the green issue. Green has too many symbolic meanings already. .. .envy, greed, money, environmentalism, spring, the Irish, sickness. .. .. .if you wear a green ribbon it can mean anything.
9:01 AM May 5th
 
jemanji
Oh and how about green for "Go" on the rising pitchers, rather than black ... Black makes me think they're DL'ed :- )
1:21 AM May 5th
 
jemanji
This is such a killer feature. Love it.

Wonder if there isn't some way to accelerate guys like Darvish and Strasburg a little bit. In chess, there are ratings adjustments for juniors who are way underrated and who are 'victimizing' the people they beat on the way up...

If I were dictator of the USA :- ) the All-Star game starter would be decided by this, the Cy Young maybe, and the pre-game shows would emphasize it...

The Vegas oddsmakers are always looking for a new system. You have to wonder whether a system based on this would give an edge. Also rotisserie drafting.

Anyway, this is one of the all-time classic James baseball-for-fun and baseball-for-blood paradigms ... good stuff ...
1:19 AM May 5th
 
 
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