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Yu Darvish

December 9, 2011
According to his agent, Don Nomura, Yu Darvish was posted yesterday (Thursday, December 8) for a move to MLB from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), the top Japanese professional baseball league.  This is a process whereby major-league teams bid in a silent auction for the exclusive rights to negotiate with Darvish. The auction is four days long.

Darvish is the latest superstar Japanese player to make the move across the Pacific, and MLB teams have been waiting for him to become available ever since he recorded the final out of the 2009 World Baseball Classic to clinch Japan's second WBC title. And now that the big names like Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson are off the board, Darvish becomes one of the best remaining free-agent starting pitchers available.

Each year in The Bill James Handbook we include the career stats of players that are most likely to leave the Japanese leagues to come over and play in the United States. This year, Darvish is obviously the most high-profile such player.

Here are Darvish's career numbers from Japan, playing for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. 
 
Season Age Wins Losses ERA IP SO
2005 18 5 5 3.53 94.1 52
2006 19 12 5 2.89
149.2 115
2007 20 15 5 1.82 207.2 210
2008 21 16 4 1.88 200.2 208
2009 22 15 5 1.73 182.0 167
2010 23 12 8 1.78 202.0 222
2011 24 18 6
1.44 232.0 276
Career - 93 38 1.99 1268.1 1250
 
If you are curious how that compares to the last highly-touted young pitcher that helped Japan win a World Baseball Classic title (MVP of the 2006 tournament) before deciding to join MLB the following year, here are Daisuke Matsuzaka's career numbers playing for the Seibu Lions. 
 
Season Age Wins Losses ERA IP SO
1999 18 16 5 2.60 180.0 151
2000 19 14 7 3.97
167.2 144
2001 20 15 15 3.60 240.1 214
2002 21 6 2 3.68 73.1 78
2003 22 16 7 2.83 194.0 215
2004 23 10 6
2.90 146.0 127
2005 24 14 13
2.30 215.0 226
2006 25 17 5
2.13 186.1 200
Career - 108 60 2.95 1402.2
1355
 
It will be interesting to see what kind of posting fee and contract Darvish gets. Dice-K pitched a bit more at a young age, but Darvish has been more consistently dominant than Dice-K was. Darvish has had an ERA under 2.00 for five years running, and threw more than 200 innings in four of those five years. Will that lead to a similar $100 million outlay, like Dice-K got ($51 million posting fee plus $52 million 6-year contract), or will teams spend more cautiously after seeing the up-and-down performance of Dice-K since he entered MLB?
 
You can find more statistics on Japanese players that are likely to sign MLB contracts this year in The Bill James Handbook 2012.
 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

tigerlily
Thanks Sansho 1. Sounds like a reasonable explanation to me.
4:38 PM Dec 10th
 
glkanter
Dice-K has 49 wins in 5 years. At a pro-rated cost of about $82 million. 18 of them in his 2nd year. 16 in the last 3. Lousy eras the last 3.

***The above ends the documented data aspect of this post.***

It seems to me that the 'great' Japanese pitchers have been way over-valued relative to their contributions.

Bouton wrote about a similar affect in Ball Four. The further a minor leaguer was from the parent club, the more they valued whatever he was accomplishing.

I think our brains are by nature 'optimistic', and we tend to fill any doubts with too-favorable expectations.
9:32 AM Dec 10th
 
sansho1
Native Japanese have trouble with "f" and "v" sounds, as these sounds are not utilized in the Japanese language, so a long name with two of these sounds probably proved to be too much of a tongue-twister.​
7:02 AM Dec 10th
 
hotstatrat
No, but it isn't unusual for a long name to be shortened when someone moves to another country and culture.​
1:22 PM Dec 9th
 
tigerlily
I'd never heard of Darvish until this article, and since his surname is obviously not japanese, went to wikipedia to check him out. Turns out his father is Iranian and his mother japanese. His father's surname is Darvishsefat, not Darvish. Does anyone know why Yu Darvish has a different surname than his father?
11:31 AM Dec 9th
 
 
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