There was a discussion over in Readers Post land about Roy Halladay’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame. In the discussion, two interesting player comparisons came up.
The first was brought to us via izzy24, who I presume is former Red Sox farmhand and sometimes-judo-expert Izzy Alcantara. Izzy24 writes:
"I see Halladay as a better version of Drysdale. That sure sounds like a Hall of Famer to me."
What’s funny about Izzy’s comparison is that Don Drysdale is frequently referecenced as someone who lowers the Hall-of-Fame standards, someone who maybe shouldn’t be in Cooperstown.
A little while later we got this one, from Evanecurb:
"I’d say Mussina was the Don Sutton of his era. Never the best in the game, but a consistent 30 start, 15 win guy for a long time."
Evan quickly recanted this statement, and I don’t want to seem like I’m mocking either of these posts. Judged by their Triple Crown lines, these comparisons make some sense:
Name
|
Wins
|
ERA
|
K
|
Drysdale
|
209
|
2.95
|
2486
|
Halladay
|
203
|
3.38
|
2117
|
Not dissimiliar. Hallady has the higher ERA, but him and Drysdale pitched in different eras. Doc and Big-D share a few other parallels: both are tall right-handers (Drysdale was 6’5", Halladay 6’6"); both were famous pitchers in their primes; both lost their effectiveness in their early thirties.
Mussina and Sutton are a bit alike, too:
Name
|
Wins
|
ERA
|
K
|
Sutton
|
324
|
3.26
|
3534
|
Mussina
|
270
|
3.68
|
2813
|
Sutton has the longer career, but both pitchers won an impressive amount of games. Neither won a Cy Young Award, or came particularly close (Mussina finished second in 1999, but it wasn’t exactly a close vote). They share the same ‘knock’ from baseball traditionalists: they each won 20 games just once in their careers.
But these comparable aren’t that convincing….using wins, strikeouts, and ERA misses an important bit:
Name
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Win %
|
Drysdale
|
209
|
166
|
.557
|
Halladay
|
203
|
105
|
.659
|
Name
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Win %
|
Sutton
|
324
|
256
|
.559
|
Mussina
|
270
|
153
|
.638
|
Don Drysdale, pitching on generally good teams in a tough division, won 56% of his starts. Halladay, pitching on slightly less good teams, won 66% of his starts. That’s a significant difference. The same holds true for Sutton and Mussina: while they won an equivalent number of games each year, Mussina was losing fewer games each year than Sutton.
Winning percentage and WAR are in agreement about Mussina versus Sutton…both measures show a sizeable gap in their talent level:
Name
|
W-L
|
Win %
|
rWAR
|
Mussina
|
270-153
|
.638
|
82.7
|
Sutton
|
324-256
|
.559
|
68.7
|
But in the case of Don Drysdale and Roy Halladay, their winning percentage actually does a better job of communicating a difference between the two players than their cumulative WAR does. Which seems a more accurate comparison of Drysdale and Halladay?
This:
Name
|
rWAR
|
Drysdale
|
61.2
|
Halladay
|
65.6
|
Or this:
Name
|
W-L
|
Win %
|
Drysdale
|
209-166
|
.557
|
Halladay
|
203-205
|
.659
|
When I think about these two pitchers, I expect Halladay to rate ahead of Drysdale. That’s not a knock against Drysdale: in his prime, Big D was a fine pitcher. But I don’t know that anyone was rating him ahead of Koufax, Marichal, or Gibson.
I remember all of Halladay career. For a long time, he was in the conversation as the best pitcher in the game. His winning percentage communicates this better than his cumulative WAR.
We’ll come back to these four…
* * *
Okay…down the rabbit hole. Did you know Baseball-Reference lists a split for pitcher’s statistics, based on whether their opponent was better or worse than .500?
This split is really interesting. Let’s start with Jack Morris.
The case for Jack Morris getting elected to Cooperstown is that he won a lot of games. The case against him is that he wasn’t all that good: he was just lucky to have good teammates.
Let’s check the splits:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Jack Morris
|
254-186
|
158-66
|
.705
|
96-120
|
.444
|
Jack Morris was extremely good against bad teams. And he couldn’t beat good teams. He had a losing record against good teams, and it wasn’t too close to .500.
I think, incidentally, that this is a really good way to make your case against Morris. If you’re arguing this in a bar, citing his career WAR isn’t going to convince too many people loyal to older metrics. This split might: most of the time Morris faced a good opponent, he lost that game.
But we’re not trying to win bar arguments here. Morris’s winning percentages against winning teams is .444. I’m not sure what that means, exactly….I don’t know whether that’s a really bad tally or somewhat expected. We need a bit of context to understand the split.
Checking, first, on the recent 300-game winners:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Clemens
|
354-184
|
216-73
|
.747
|
138-111
|
.554
|
R. Johnson
|
303-166
|
180-75
|
.706
|
123-91
|
.575
|
Maddux
|
355-227
|
193-94
|
.672
|
162-133
|
.549
|
Glavine
|
305-203
|
159-87
|
.646
|
146-116
|
.557
|
These four are surprisingly consistent. Jack Morris’s winning percentage against losing teams falls in the middle of this group. But unlike Morris, all four of the 300-game winners posted a positive winning percentage against winning teams.
A couple more recent guys:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Smoltz
|
213-155
|
116-69
|
.627
|
97-86
|
.530
|
Schilling
|
216-146
|
122-61
|
.667
|
94-85
|
.525
|
An obvious pair, and we’re starting to see some ranges. Schilling and Smoltz weren’t quite up to the standards of Clemens, Johnson, and Maddux, against winning or losing teams. They’re closer to Glavine.
Getting older:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Carlton
|
329-244
|
175-109
|
.616
|
154-135
|
.533
|
Seaver
|
311-205
|
164-80
|
.672
|
147-125
|
.540
|
Here’s an early hypothesis about this split: a player’s win-loss record against losing teams tells us a lot about the quality of their team. A player’s win-loss record against winning teams tells us a lot about their ability.
Steve Carlton played on some bad teams…so his winning percentage against losing teams isn’t as impressive as Seaver’s. They were equally effective against good teams.
I have no idea why that would turn out to be true, but it seems to fit. Seaver and Carlton had similar winning percentages against +.500 teams, but different winning percentages against losing teams.
Here’s another one:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Palmer
|
268-152
|
159-62
|
.719
|
109-90
|
.548
|
Jenkins
|
284-226
|
123-97
|
.559
|
161-129
|
.555
|
Palmer played on better teams than Jenkins. Gentleman Jim crushed the losing teams, but his winning percentage against tough competition is dead-even with Fergie Jenkins.
We can calculate, easily enough, the percentage of decisions each pitcher got against winning and losing competition. Palmer had 420 career decisions…199 of those came against winning teams. That’s 47%...most of Palmer’s decisions came against losers.
Fergie Jenkins flips it: 57% of his decisions came against winning teams.
Another theory…pitchers on bad teams tend to have less of a split in their winning percentages than players on good teams.
Two more big-win pitchers:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Niekro
|
318-274
|
144-114
|
.558
|
174-160
|
.521
|
Perry
|
314-265
|
150-93
|
.617
|
164-172
|
.488
|
Niekro and Perry, like Jenkins, got most of their decisions against .500+ teams…56% for Niekro, 58% for Perry. This supports the second theory: Niekro, like Jenkins, has comparable winning percentages against winning and losing teams…just a 37-point difference.
Gaylord Perry is our first ‘surprise’…a ‘great’ pitcher who doesn’t have a .500 winning percentage against winning teams. Bill rated Perry as the 18th best pitcher in baseball history the last time he crunched numbers, so this is a bit surprising.
Finishing up this generation:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Ryan
|
324-292
|
149-104
|
.589
|
175-188
|
.482
|
Blyleven
|
287-250
|
157-101
|
.609
|
130-149
|
.466
|
Another logical pair, Blyleven and Ryan have very close winning percentage splits. Ryan faced tougher competition: 59% of his decision came against winning teams, compared to 52% for Blyleven. We now have three Hall-of-Famers who have losing records against winning teams.
 
Alright…two more.
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Tommy John
|
288-231
|
149-105
|
.587
|
139-126
|
.525
|
Jim Kaat
|
283-237
|
161-109
|
.596
|
122-128
|
.488
|
Tommy John, rated higher by rWAR, has a better winning percentage against winning teams than Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, and Jim Kaat. That’s interesting, right?
Going further back:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Marichal
|
243-142
|
113-65
|
.669
|
130-86
|
.602
|
Gibson
|
251-174
|
129-63
|
.672
|
122-111
|
.524
|
Another surprise: Juan Marichal had a better record against steep competition than Bob Gibson.
Actually, the Dominican Dandy is ahead of everyone I’ve listed, when it comes to beating winners. Randy Johnson (.575) had the best mark, but Marichal is ahead of him.
Bob Gibson’s splits (.672/.524) are a lot like Curt Schilling’s splits (.667/.525). Two of the most famous postseason pitchers in baseball history show a strong similarity in their winning percentage splits.
We forgot about someone….Sandy. We’ll pair Koufax with another Dominican:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Koufax
|
165-87
|
81-42
|
.659
|
84-45
|
.651
|
Pedro
|
219-100
|
124-38
|
.765
|
95-62
|
.605
|
Joe Posnanski recently wrote that if the Devil gave him one pitcher to play for his soul, he’d take Pedro. If the Devil puts together a .500+ team, I might take Sandy instead. His winning percentage against winning teams is the best of any pitcher I could find.
Koufax might lend credence to my theory about winning percentages against losing teams reflecting a pitcher’s team, whereas winning percentages against winning teams reflects a pitcher’s talent:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Drysdale
|
209-166
|
100-55
|
.645
|
109-111
|
.495
|
Koufax
|
165-87
|
81-42
|
.659
|
84-45
|
.651
|
Drysdale and Koufax won at the same pace against losing teams, but Koufax kept pace against the winning teams. Drysdale didn’t.
Going further back:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Feller
|
266-162
|
139-52
|
.728
|
127-110
|
.536
|
Spahn
|
363-245
|
205-97
|
.679
|
158-148
|
.516
|
Roberts
|
286-245
|
158-99
|
.615
|
128-146
|
.467
|
There’s an iceberg of data to play with in this split, and I’ve only approached the tip of it. Looking at Feller and Roberts, you’d conclude that Bob Feller is a ‘great’ pitcher, while Roberts is the lesser pitcher. Feller’s percentages parallel Jim Palmer’s (.719/.548)…Roberts looks a lot like Blyleven (.609/.466).
But here’s a weird extension of those splits:
Name
|
ERA <.500
|
ERA .500+
|
Feller
|
2.72
|
3.75
|
Roberts
|
3.30
|
3.50
|
Feller gave up more runs to good opponents…an additional run for every nine innings pitched. Roberts had less variance against his opponents. I don’t know which is better, frankly…whether it’s more impressive to give up 3.4 runs to everyone, or to beat the tar out of the lesser teams.
Going back further:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Grove
|
300-141
|
162-59
|
.733
|
138-82
|
.627
|
Hubbell
|
253-154
|
126-49
|
.720
|
127-105
|
.547
|
Grove’s winning percentage against sub-.500 teams rates behind just four pitchers that I found (Pedro, Clemens, and two others I haven’t mentioned. His winning percentage against winning teams is second behind Koufax.
If we wanted to group players by families according to their winning percentages split against winning and losing teams, Hubbell belongs with Palmer and Feller:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Hubbell
|
253-154
|
126-49
|
.720
|
127-105
|
.547
|
Palmer
|
268-152
|
159-62
|
.719
|
109-90
|
.548
|
Feller
|
266-162
|
139-52
|
.728
|
127-110
|
.536
|
All three pitchers share a good taste in teammates…Feller’s Indians are perhaps the least known good team, but they were excellent from 1948 to 1956 (Feller’s last season), and missed the pennant by a single game in 1940.
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
W. Johnson
|
417-279
|
126-73
|
.633
|
140-109
|
.562
|
G. Alexander
|
373-208
|
171-64
|
.728
|
133-106
|
.556
|
We only get partial splits for Walter Johnson and Grover Cleveland Alexander, and it’s Old Pete who comes out a hair ahead. Christy and Cy didn’t have enough games to warrant a listing.
* * *
Some special cases now…
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Rick Reuschel
|
214-191
|
109-73
|
.599
|
105-118
|
.471
|
Nolan Ryan
|
324-292
|
149-104
|
.589
|
175-188
|
.482
|
Bert Blyleven
|
287-250
|
157-101
|
.609
|
130-149
|
.466
|
Jim Kaat
|
283-237
|
161-109
|
.596
|
122-128
|
.488
|
WAR-darling Rick Reuschel rates comparably to Nolan Ryan, Blyleven, and Kaat. Not sure it helps his case, really....he doesn’t have the longevity of those other players.
On the other hand, the thinking man’s favorite pitcher of the 1980’s, Dave Stieb, finds a surprising ally:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Jenkins
|
284-226
|
123-97
|
.559
|
161-129
|
.555
|
Stieb
|
176-137
|
86-60
|
.589
|
90-77
|
.539
|
One pitched in Canada, one was Canadian.
Fergie Jenkins has the narrowest ‘gap’ between his winning percentage against sub-.500 teams, and his winning percentage against .500+ teams....here are the top-five:
Name
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
Difference
|
Jenkins
|
0.559
|
0.555
|
4
|
Koufax
|
0.659
|
0.651
|
8
|
Niekro
|
0.558
|
0.521
|
37
|
Stieb
|
0.589
|
0.539
|
60
|
Kaat
|
0.596
|
0.488
|
62
|
And the biggest gaps:
Name
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
Difference
|
J. Morris
|
0.770
|
0.500
|
261
|
Clemens
|
0.705
|
0.444
|
193
|
Feller
|
0.747
|
0.554
|
192
|
Hubbell
|
0.720
|
0.547
|
173
|
Palmer
|
0.720
|
0.547
|
171
|
Alexander
|
0.719
|
0.548
|
171
|
Jack Morris has the biggest discrepancy in winning percentage between sub-.500 teams and .500+ teams of any retired player I’ve found. There’s one active player ahead of him.
These lists seem…scattered. There’s no obvious pattern that I can see. Moving on.
Toughest competition:
Name
|
% of Decisions, .500+
|
Ryan
|
59%
|
Drysdale
|
59%
|
Perry
|
58%
|
Hubbell
|
57%
|
Jenkins
|
57%
|
Niekro
|
56%
|
W. Johnson
|
56%
|
The obvious pattern is that these pitchers played on sub-par teams. Drysdale and Hubbell are the exceptions…maybe the Dodgers saved Drysdale for tougher opponents. I expect the Giants did that with ‘Meal Ticket’ Hubbell.
Name
|
% of Decisions, .500+
|
R. Johnson
|
46%
|
Clemens
|
46%
|
Palmer
|
47%
|
Mussina
|
48%
|
Jim Kaat
|
48%
|
Morris
|
49%
|
P. Martinez
|
49%
|
Schilling
|
49%
|
A lot of modern players…the variance between pitching to good/bad teams has declined significantly as baseball schedules have expanded, and the five-man rotation has taken hold. Teams are no longer juggling the rotation to get their best pitchers up against the best teams.
* * *
Looking at two active players approaching 200 wins:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Bartolo Colon
|
192-133
|
110-60
|
.647
|
82-73
|
.529
|
Bob Gibson
|
251-174
|
129-63
|
.672
|
122-111
|
.524
|
Mark Buehrle
|
193-143
|
104-57
|
.646
|
89-86
|
.509
|
No one really talks about Colon or Mark Buehrle as Hall-of-Fame bound. It’s interesting that, at least by this split, they’re not dissimiliar to Bob Gibson.
And the two active players with 200+ victories:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Sabathia
|
208-119
|
127-38
|
0.770
|
81-81
|
0.500
|
Hudson
|
209-113
|
121-48
|
0.716
|
88-65
|
0.575
|
Sabathia, surprisingly, is the active pitcher making a charge at Jack Morris….he has the biggest difference in split winning percentages of any pitcher I looked at.
As for Tim Hudson....his kin is surprising:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Hudson
|
209-113
|
121-48
|
0.716
|
88-65
|
0.575
|
R. Johnson
|
303-166
|
180-75
|
0.706
|
123-91
|
0.575
|
Fun to come at the end of an exercise with Tim Hudson and Randy Johnson looking practically identical.
* * *
We started with two comparables…coming back to them one at a time:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
%
|
W-L .500+
|
%
|
Drysdale
|
209-166
|
100-55
|
.645
|
109-111
|
.495
|
Halladay
|
203-105
|
108-37
|
.745
|
95-68
|
.583
|
Halladay has an 100 point edge in winning percentage in both splits, setting him out of Drysdale’s company. Halladay’s closest compatriot is actually Pedro Martinez ( .765/.605)….Pedro is ahead on both counts, but it’s close.
Sutton and Mussina doesn’t fit, either:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Sutton
|
324-256
|
172-105
|
.621
|
152-151
|
.502
|
Mussina
|
270-153
|
151-71
|
.680
|
119-82
|
.592
|
Don Sutton’s closest compatriot is Gaylord Perry. He beat the bad teams, but was about 50-50 against the good ones.
And Mike Mussina, apitcher almost never mentions as a big-game pitcher, turns out to have the fifth best winning percentage against winning teams of all the pitchers listed. Against tough competition, only Koufax, Grove, Pedro and Juan Marichal won games at a better clip than Mike Mussina.
So our readers made the wrong comparables. Don Sutton isn’t comparable to Mike Mussina…Don Sutton’s better comparable is his one-time teammate Don Drysdale:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Drysdale
|
209-166
|
100-55
|
.645
|
109-111
|
.495
|
Sutton
|
324-256
|
172-105
|
.621
|
152-151
|
.502
|
And Roy Halladay can reasonably be compared to Mike Mussina:
Pitcher
|
Career W-L
|
W-L <.500
|
Win %
|
W-L .500+
|
Win %
|
Mussina
|
270-153
|
151-71
|
.680
|
119-82
|
.592
|
Halladay
|
203-105
|
108-37
|
.745
|
95-68
|
.583
|
Alright…out of that rabbit hole.
David Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.