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The fifteen most recent questions are listed here and will change almost every day.

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Being a fan of the other league, I don't have many personal recollections about watching Gary Carter. But since he was the #1 rated catcher in the first Ballantine Abstract, he's the first player I ever read one of your rating comments about. Since he was the #1 player at the most difficult position to design ratings for (I presume), do you have any personal recollections about him influencing the way you rate players?
Asked by: Trailbzr
Answered: 2/21/2012
Well, you know, the moment of a man's death is not always the best time to talk about him, from an analytical standpoint.    Maybe that's a moment to let the emotional people rule the day?  
Apropos your article about Don Larsen's performance in late 1956... I just bought the DVD box set of telecasts of Yankee no-hitters/perfect games, including the recently-found kinescope of Game 5 of the 1956 Series. Around the third inning, Mel Allen notes that the giant black canvas curtain typically hanging in Yankee Stadium's center field -- serving as the neutral visual background for batters -- had been removed that afternoon to accommodate more fans. I wonder to what extent, if any, that might have played in Larsen pitching a perfect game.
Asked by: ajmilner
Answered: 2/21/2012
You'd have to think it would help, wouldn't you?
In light of ajmilner's question and your response, is it as likely that steroids were the main cause of the increase in strikeouts by pitchers, due to batters swinging for fences, or a similar, parallel physical effect on pitchers' performance?
Asked by: strikethree
Answered: 2/21/2012
But the end of the steroid era, which has resulted in hitter's numbers going back to normal, has been accompanied by another sudden INCREASE in strikeouts.    Pitchers certainly used sturroyds; in fact, I have been told that in the minor leagues it was MOSTLY pitchers who used steroids.    I don't know if that's true, but I've heard that.    I think we have to believe that some of the unusual pitching performances of the 1996-2003 era were steroid-aided.   But I don't think steroids were GENERALLY responsible for any of the increase in strikeout rates; in fact, I would suspect that they probably held DOWN the rate of increase in strikeouts, since a stronger hitter has less need to sell out early to get the bat speed that he needs.   
About 300 lbers: is there a (legitimate) aversion to signing a player you know will never do anything but DH, because teams expect that sometime in the future they'll need to move a current bat there?
Asked by: Trailbzr
Answered: 2/21/2012
It's just a very high standard.     Yes, we're reluctant to sign players who are only going to DH, and frankly, sometimes we're wrong to worry about it.   But players move leftward on the defensive spectrum as they age, so you always have lots of candidates for DH, 1B, LF, therefore what you're looking for is candidates for shortstop and center field.   If a guy starts out at the left end of the defensive spectrum, he's going to have to hit a ton to have value.  
Aaron Crow, Chris Sale, and Neftali Feliz are all attempting to move from the bullpen to the starting rotation this spring. All three pitched well in the majors last year, but their minor league track records are quite different. Crow did not pitch well in the minors as a starter, Sale only pitched 10 innings in the minors, while Feliz pitched well in the minors as a starter. Which of these three is most likely to successfully convert to the rotation? What are the factors you look for in pitchers that make successful transition from the pen to the rotation?
Asked by: Mike
Answered: 2/21/2012
Daniel Bard.   Bard is trying to make the same transition, with the same background.    I doubt that there are enough pitchers who have successfully made this transition in the last 20 years to generalize about them.   You'd need at least 15-20 successful cases to study; I kind of doubt that there are that many.  
Looking at the last 25 seasons, the BAbip-BA disparity has grown from .026 in 1987 to .040 in 2011. Why might this be? I can understand why BAbip is higher now than '96-'04 (more HR hit then, making denominator smaller for BAbip), but in an era with relatively similar power numbers to those of the present, what accounts for the uptick in disparity? Larger fields? Worse fielding?
Asked by: dmack4
Answered: 2/21/2012
The bats account for a lot of it.   The bats we use now have harder surfaces and thinner handles.  The general theme of the last 100 years is that we constantly increase bat speeds at the expense of bat control.   Bat control reduces strikeouts, but bat speed increases the batting average when the ball is in play. 
How many players can you recall who were stuck in the minors for years because of their weight? You mentioned Prince's dad, but my favorite was Calvin Pickering. Easily 300 lbs, but OPS'd 1.000 in the minors six times, and had a career mark of .958. Even in the Royals' and Orioles' systems he could never get any kind of a real chance to play major league ball. He contended for the AA Eastern League triple crown at 21, and the O's immediate response was to sign 35-year-old Will Clark to a multi-year deal. The Royals made him their opening day DH in '05, and it took all of seven games to reconsider and send him down.
Asked by: Jon Wilt
Answered: 2/21/2012
Calvin's only 35 now; maybe he'll make it work yet.    He's a good example: I dunno how many others there are.
Hey, Bill, I have read about Rabbi Neulander's case in your Popular Crime and like you, I do believe that evidence against the Rabbi is weak and relies a lot in the Len Janoff's testimony. Not saying that he's innocent, but is my belief that he was declared guilty, more because of the perception that he betrayed the faith of his parishioners than because of the evidence against him. And there are fictional elements here... For example, I read an excerpt of Magida's book, telling the story about a friend of Neulander, which told him that he was a sociopath, in the living room of his friend's house and in front of his friend's wife!!! Is that the way people are supossed to go with an individual they believe is a sociopath? Then the question would be: how many guilty-veredicts do you think rely more in public perception than in evidence? do you think that happens very often? is one of the quirks of your judicial system?
Asked by: jbdominicano
Answered: 2/21/2012
It is very, very difficult to guess how often the Justice system misfires, and then more difficult to guess how often it misfires due to Cause A, Cause B, etc.    I wouldn't use the term "public" perception; it is the perception of the jury that counts, not the perception of the public.    But if you behave badly in other aspects of your life, this will tend to jump up and bite you in the ankle when you are on trial for murder.  
Hey, Bill, I don't know if you could answer this question, but I'll make it anyway. Has Carl Crawford "the Juan Samuel problem", I mean, obvious skills which don't fit any place?
Asked by: jbdominicano
Answered: 2/21/2012
Crawford has very little in common with Juan Samuel. 
Bill- Praising the Yankees' signing of Raul Ibanez, a local paper said: "Last season Ibanez drove in 22 of his 83 RBI with singles, according to Elias." The columnist cited that as proof of Ibanez' skill at situational hitting, something he said the Yankees lacked, since Texiera and ARod tggether totalled 22 RBI on singles. Would you agree that the number cited is evidence of situational hitting skill, or instead a result of getting more opportunities to hit with runners on 2nd and/or 3rd (or something else I'm not thinking of)?
Asked by: mekl77
Answered: 2/21/2012
It doesn't mean anything to me one way or the other without more context.   
Hi Bill. Sorry if this is a stupid question, but if we were to add every player's win and loss shares for a specific team would it add up to 3 times the won-loss record for a team the way team win shares= team wins * 3?
Asked by: izzy24
Answered: 2/21/2012
Generally but not precisely.    In Win Shares I made after-the-calculation adjustments to FORCE the totals to add up to three times the teams wins.   In Win Shares/Loss Shares I don't make those after-the-fact adjustments, so they don't add up to precisely the team total.
Any truth to the rumor that Jeremy Lin is in reality a middle-aged real estate salesman who lent his soul to a certain Mr. Applegate?
Asked by: ajmilner
Answered: 2/19/2012
He hasn't used the name "Applegate" since 1962.  
Have you seen the website http://steroids-and-baseball.com/? The author challenges the conventional wisdom about steroids. He disputes that there was a huge steroid-fueled increase in homeruns (he claims that changes in the manufacturing and composition of the baseballs is a much bigger factor), that steroid pose a serious danger to health, and that other players were "coerced" into using. I can't verify the validity of his arguments, but he seems to have considerable evidence to back up his claims.
Asked by: Hank Gillette
Answered: 2/19/2012
Yeah, and people who believe those things shouldn't be criticized for challenging conventional wisdom.   But I think it's very unlikely that steroids were not the main cause of the explosion in home run numbers. 
Hi Bill. If a player doesn't meet either Win Shares threshold (300 win shares or 100 more win shares than loss shares) but reaches a particular milestone (e.g. 3000 hits) would you consider him a worthy Hall of Famer?
Asked by: izzy24
Answered: 2/19/2012
I don't believe there has ever been such a player.   But the presumption of Hall of Fame status for a 3,000-hit player is not immutable.   If there was a player who played 3200 games and had 3,000 hits but a .280 average and not really good other numbers, he wouldn't be elected, and he shouldn't be.  
I am re reading Moneyball and know hindsight is 20/20 but am curious what the Athletics did not like about Prince Fielder for the draft other than Fielder being heavy. There is a comment about his size in the book but at the same time they draft Jeremy Brown who admittedly does not have a great body. Unless they just thought Prince Fielder was out of their price range for signing bonus. And Billy Beane had also indicated that oftentimes son's of former major leaguers are successful. Hence Cecil Fielder and Prince Fielder. Seems like it ended up being a pretty good draft pick for "dumb" Milwaukee.
Asked by: dyourg
Answered: 2/19/2012
Don't know anything about it.   I never read "Moneyball", for one thing.   A player with the Fielder-type body style has to overcome a lot of resistance.   Cecil Fielder was a 31st-round draft pick who refused to sign, was taken by the Royals in the old secondary draft.     He hit .322 with 20 homers in 69 games in the low minors, and the Royals traded him to Toronto.  He crushed the ball for four years in the Toronto system, and they sold him to Japan.   People just didn't believe he could play, based on his build.   There's a high skepticism attached to that type of a body.   
 
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