Here’s a test: take a piece of paper and write down the ten best non-pitchers in baseball. Go ahead. Take a few seconds. I’ll wait.
(waiting…)
Got a list? Okay. Now start cutting players. Using their 2008 stats:
-Cross out anyone who has a poor batting average. Lower than .275, say.
-Draw a line through anyone who doesn’t hit for power. Less than 25 homers a year.
-Same for anyone who can’t draw at least sixty or seventy walks a year.
-Cut anyone who can’t steal at least 20 bases a year. And they should be good baserunners: they should be successful stealing at least 75% of the time.
-And since defense is important, keep the guys who play important defensive positions. Shortstop, second, center, catcher. I’ll throw you a bone: keep the third-basemen.
-While we’re on defense, cross out the guys who play a difficult defensive position poorly. Use whatever metric you want: Fielding Bible +/-, Gold Gloves, etc. If they play an important defensive position badly, they get a line.
-How many are good clutch hitters? This site has a great clutch hitting section. Check whoever is left on your list, and see how good they were in clutch situations last year. If they were bad in key situations, cut ‘em.
-What else? Health is important. Did your guy play 150 games last year? If not, cut him.
-Finally: cut the losers. Drop anyone whose team did poorly. Finished under .500, say.
Who’s left from your list? Did anyone make it through?
The Most Complete Player in Baseball
I asked a few friends to do the above exercise. They gave me names you would expect: A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Pujols, Sizemore, Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Dustin Pedroia.
None of those players pass. Utley didn’t steal enough bases or draw enough walks and was lousy in the clutch. Hanley Ramirez clipped the bar on stolen base %, and is a mediocre defender. A-Rod was lousy in the clutch last year. Wright misses the steals cut-off.
It’s a tough test: you have to be a perfect hitter, able to hit for average and power, while getting on-base. On top of that, you have to play an important defensive position and you have to play it well. You have to be fast, and be an efficient base-stealer. You have to stay healthy. And you have to have a good track record as a clutch hitter, as well as a good record of playing with winning teams. You have to do everything, and you have to do it well.
It’s a damn hard test. Because it’s hard, you would think that anyone who might pass that test would get a lot of attention. But none of the people I asked named the only player who actually passes those measures.
That player is Carlos Beltran. And not only did Beltran pass the test for this year, he has passed that test for his entire career. Consider:
- Beltran hits for a good batting average. In 2008 he hit .284, while playing in a pitcher’s park. His career batting average is .281.
-He hits for power and draws walks. Last year he hit 28 homeruns and drew 92 walks. He has hit as many as 41 homeruns in a season, and drawn as many as 95 walks.
-He plays an important defensive position, and he plays it extremely well. He won the Gold Glove in 2008. In his career he has won three Gold Gloves, and does well in most standard and advanced defensive measures.
-He is a prolific base-stealer. He is also an efficient base-stealer. In fact, he is the most efficient base-stealer of all-time, having stolen 275 bases in 312 attempts (an 88% success rate).
-He hits well in the clutch. He was an excellent clutch hitter last year, posting a .333/.390/.528 line. He has been remarkable in playoff baseball: in 22 postseason games, he has a .364/.485/.817 line. His postseason OPS of 1.302 is the best of all-time.
He played 161 games last year. In the last ten years he has played in 140 or more games nine times.
-And good teams follow him. The Mets have had winning records every year he’s been with them. The Royals were 35-60 (.368) when they traded him in 2004. They went 23-44 (.343) after he left. The Astros had been 48-49 (.495) before he arrived, but with Beltran in center they improved to 44-21 (.677). Most remarkably, Beltran led the 2003 Royals to an 83-win season in 2003, despite hitting between Desi Reliford and Raul Ibanez though most of the year.
He does everything extraordinarily well. He is the most complete player in baseball today.
The 2008 NL MVP: A Correction
Last year, Beltran had a remarkable season. He hit .284 with 27 homeruns. He scored 116 runs and drove in 112 RBI’s. He walked 92 times and hit 40 doubles. He stole 25 bases and was caught just three times. He was one of the two best defensive centerfielders in baseball last year, and was awarded the Gold Glove. He hit .333/.390/.528 in clutch situations and .344/.440/.645 during the September stretch. His team won 89 games. His season was as rich and complete a year as anyone could ever have in baseball, a grand, epic season.
And no one noticed. Not a soul.
Thirty-two writers voted for the NL MVP. None of them thought Beltran was the best player in the National League. Only three of the writers thought Beltran was one of the top ten players in the league. By the writers’ consensus, he was the 21st best player in the NL last year.
Ryan Howard came in second in the MVP vote. Beltran beat him in every single statistical category except homeruns. On top of that, Beltran was a Gold Glove centerfielder, and an elite base-stealer, and Beltran was a better clutch hitter.
The same sportswriters cast more votes for Betran’s teammate, Carlos Delgado, than they did for Beltran. Carlos Delgado hit eleven more homeruns than Carlos Beltran, but, once again, Carlos Beltran did everything else better. Beltran had more hits, walks, doubles, triples, steals. He played a more important defensive position, played his position better, and hit better in the clutch.
And lest I be accused of favoritism, it’s worth noting that no one in the sabermetric field argued for Beltran, either. I Googled “Carlos Beltran, 2008, MVP” and found a bunch of articles about Carlos Delgado. Rob Neyer argued for Berkman. I went with Pujols. Others went for Wright or Utley or Hanley. No one made any arguments for Beltran as the NL MVP.
In retrospect, I should have. Carlos Beltran was the Most Valuable Player in the National League last year.
Collective Blindness
How’d we miss him? All of us, I mean: the baseball watchers of America. Carlos Beltran is the modern incarnation of Willie Mays, a guy who excels at every facet of the game, and we aren’t paying a lick of attention to him.
Here are his Win Share totals, and where he ranked among all major league players:
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Win Shares
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ML Rank
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2008
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33
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3rd
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2007
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27
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17th
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2006
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38
|
2nd
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He’s damned good: one of the best players in the game right now. So start appreciating him.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and long, awkward pauses from apologetic baseball players here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com).