In The Baseball Book 1990, Bill James came up with a list of indicators for teams that might improve in the following season. Briefly, those indicators are:
-Younger teams tend to improve. Older teams tend to decline.
-Teams that tend to decline one year will improve the next year.
-Teams that finish a year strongly tend to carry that success over.
-Losing teams tend to improve. Winning teams tend to decline.
-Teams whose minor league affiliates do well tend to improve.
-Bad luck doesn’t carry over: teams that underperform their Pythagorean W-L will seem to improve when their luck improves.
Predicting Surprise Teams
One way to predict which teams are likely to surprise in 2009 would be to apply the six indicators above. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates:
-They are a young team. Their pitchers are particularly young.
-They are a losing team, finishing last year at 67-95.
On the other hand:
-They did not decline from 2007 to 2008. Rather, they were mediocre both years.
-They did not finish strong. They were 44-50 during the first half, but 23-45 during the second half.
-Their minor league affiliates did as poorly as the parent club did in 2008.
-They did not underperform their Pythagorean W-L record, meaning their record is a real reflection of talent.
There are a few indicators that the Pirates will surprise in 2009. And there are a few indictors that suggest more of the same ineptitude from the 2009 Pirates.
Weighting the Indicators
One could take the indicators further, by measuring them on a scale of importance.
Say you have two teams who both finished at 72-90 last year. One team underperformed its Pythagorean W-L record by three games. Another team was dead-on with its Pythagorean W-L record, but played .500 baseball over the second half of the season. Which team is more likely to have a successful 2009?
Obviously, the team that played .500 baseball is more likely to succeed. They have shown an ability to play .500 baseball over a sustained period. At best, the -3 Pythagorean team has shown an ability to play 75-87 (.463) baseball.
So we should to weigh the different indicators. Using a twenty-point scale, one could distribute points thusly:
5 points – Teams that finished strong during the previous season
4 points - Overall youth of the team.
3 points – Lost ground last year from previous season.
1-3 points - Success of AAA team (1st place gets 4 points, 2nd gets 2 points, etc.)
2 points –A losing record (All teams in this study had losing records, hence the low point value).
1-2 points – Underperforming Pythagorean W-L. (3-4 wins gets one pt., 5 or greater gets 2 pts).
1 point – Successful AA team (1st or 2nd place gets one point).
This is intended as a fun exercise, and the weighting I applied is casual. The points assigned to each indicator are quick guesstimates as to how the various indicators should be weighted, and should not be taken all that seriously.
Of the twelve losing teams which ones are most likely to improve next year? Which teams are our leading turn-around candidates?
Let’s run ‘em down, in reverse order.
The Leading Turn-Around Candidates for 2009
#6 – Texas Rangers
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Young Team
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Did Not Finish Strong in 2008
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Good AAA Team
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Did Not Lose Ground From 2007
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Losing Record in 2008
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W-L Record matched Pythagorean
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Good AA Team
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Total: 10 Turnaround Points
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Few teams in baseball can boast three young offensive players as talented as Kinsler, Hamilton, and Chris Davis. Of course, finding offense isn’t the problem in Arlington, and the Rangers rotation can’t compare to the plethora of west coast arms in Oakland and LAA. That said, it is extremely unlikely that the Angels will win 100 games again. If the A's don’t step into the breach, perhaps the Rangers will.
#5 – San Diego Padres
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Young Team
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Did Not Finish Strong in 2008
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Lost Ground From 2007
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Poor AAA Team
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Losing Record in 2008
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W-L Record did not match Pythagorean
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Good AA Team
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Total: 12 Turnaround Points
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The Padres minor league system might not be great, but this is a young and talented team playing in a division without any obvious champions. And remember: San Diego won 89 games in 2007, and underperformed their expected W-L record by 5 games in 2008.
#2 (Tied) – Kansas City Royals
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Finished Strong in 2008
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Did Not Lose Ground from 2007
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Young Team
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W-L Record matched Pythagorean
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Good AAA Team
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Losing Record in 2008
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Good AA Team
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Total: 13 points
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Three teams tied as the second-most likely turn-around teams in 2008. Of those three teams, the Royals were the only team to finish the 2008 season on a high note. During last year’s second half, the Royals posted a 32-34 record, including a blistering 18-8 run over the last month. They have talented young players in Greinke, Soria, and Gordon . Their AA-affiliate finished 2nd and their AAA-affiliate finished 3rd last year. That said, the Royals were not plagued by bad luck last year, nor did they decline from 2007 to 2008. The Royals have a great deal of competition in the AL Central, particularly from the Indians and Twins. That said, there are reasons to be optimistic about KC this year.
#2 (Tied) – Oakland A’s
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Young Team
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Did Not Finish Strong in 2008
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Lost Ground From 2007
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W-L Record matched Pythagorean
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Good AAA Team
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Losing Record in 2008
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Good AA Team
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Total: 13 points
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It makes sense that the A’s will rebound in 2009. They are a young, talented team, who had an off year in 2008 after a successful 2007. Their minor league teams are excellent, and they acquired big-name free agents (Holliday, Giambi) during the offseason. Lastly, the best team in their division last year, the Angels, lost key players.
The A’s are the favorites in the AL West. One way to see test this system is to see if it confirms reasonable expectations. It is reasonable, I think, to expect that the A’s will do well in 2009. That the system confirms this is encouraging.
#2 (Tied) – Atlanta Braves
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Young Team
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Did Not Finish Strong in 2008
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Lost Ground From 2007
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Good AAA Team
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W-L Record Did Not Match Pythagorean
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Good AA Team
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Total: 13 points
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No team does better in more indicators than the Atlanta Braves, whose only failing was to suffer an abysmal second-half in 2009.
That said, I am not as high on the Braves as I am on the A’s. The NL East is a tough division, and I don’t expect the Braves to slip past the Mets and Phillies. If they had resigned John Smoltz, maybe, but they signed Glavine instead. To me, that isn’t a move that’s going to get you past the Mets or Phillies. It’s a tough division, and the Braves can’t go around hoping a 43-year old Glavine remembers how to strike out hitters.
#1 – Colorado Rockies
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Positive Indicators
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Negative Indicators
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Finished Strong in 2008
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W-L Record Matched Pythagorean
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Young Team
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Lousy AA Team
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Lost Ground From 2007
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Okay AAA Team
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Losing Record in 2008
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Total: 15 points
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Again, this makes sense. In 2007 the Rockies had enough talent to get to the World Series. They had an abysmal first half of the 2008 season, but recovered to go 35-31 after the All-Star break. They play in a balanced division and have a lot of young talent. They are the most likely team to go from losing in 2008 to winning in 2009.
(Dave Fleming is a writing living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com)