A reader tells me that I have taken so many positions on the issue of clutch hitting that he has given up hope of following me.   Well, for the sake of clarity, I have had only two positions on this issue.   First, in following the lead of other researchers, I thought that there was no such thing as an ability to hit in clutch situations.   Second, thinking more about the issue, I decided that we had jumped the gun in reaching that conclusion—thereby introducing bias into our research--and that we should haved waited and studied the issue more carefully.

            Whether any hitter has an ability to hit in clutch situations is a debatable issue on which I have no position.   In any season, however, it is clear that some players come through more often in clutch situations, if only because of luck.   Last year we introduced an “Award”—one of our mythical awards with no trophy, but you can bring it up in an arbitration case if you want to—for the major league Clutch Hitter of the Year.    The winner was Brad Hawpe. 

            Hawpe had another good year in the clutch, by the way; he hit .290 with 4 homers and 22 RBI in clutch situations.  No other Rockies’ hitter had more than 13 clutch RBI. 

            What, exactly, is a clutch situation?  

            A general definition of a clutch at bat is “any at bat which occurs in a situation in which one can see, as the at bat starts, that a hit in this situation would likely have a much greater-than-normal impact on the success of the team.”   We consider six factors in determining whether or not an at bat is a clutch at bat:

            The Score.

            The Inning.

            The Runners on Base.

            The Outs.

            The Opponent.

            The Standings.

            I have explained this much about the system before, but I don’t think I have ever actually explained, up to now, the exact process by which we decide what is and what is not a clutch at bat.  

            We start with a series of simple rules that always work in the sense that they are always true, but which don’t cover every situation. 

            1)  If the hitter can win the game (and end the game) with a home run, it is always a clutch at bat.

            2)  If the hitter can virtually win the game with a home run, it is a clutch at bat.  That is, if the hitter could, by hitting a home run, give his team the lead in the bottom of the eighth or later, then it is a clutch at bat.

            3)  It is a clutch at bat when, because of runners on base, the batter could potentially, with a home run, take his team from behind to ahead in the sixth inning or later.

            4)   It is never a clutch at bat when the batter’s team is ahead by three runs or more.

            5)  It is never a clutch at bat when the batter’s team is behind by six runs or more. 

            In at bats other than these, a clutch at bat can be defined as any at bat which has a total score of 10 points or more when the “clutch” score for the inning, the game and the season are added together.     The charts below explain the clutch scores for different situations:

            Clutch scores for innings:

            None on, none out                    2

            None on, one out                      1

            None on, two out                     0

            Man on first, none out               2

            Man on first, one out                 3

            Man on first, two out                4

            Man on second, none out          3

            Man on second, one out           4

            Man on second, two out           5

            Man on third, none out            4

            Man on third, out out                5

            Man on third, two out               5

            Two on, none out                     5

            Two on, one out                       6

            Two on, two out                       7

            Bases loaded, no one out          6

            Bases loaded, one out               8

Bases loaded, two out              10

Clutch scores for Inning and Score of Game

Clutch Score for Season

            This is the most complicated part of the discussion.  In our system:

            All games in April and May have a clutch value of 1 if playing a divisional opponent, 0 if playing any other opponent.

            All games in June and July have a clutch value of 0 if the batter’s team is more than 5 games behind, more than 5 games ahead, and playing an out-of-division opponent.

            Games in June and July have a clutch value of 1 if the batter’s team is within 5 games of first place OR playing a divisional opponent.

            Games in June and July have a clutch value of 2 if the batter’s team is within 5 games of first place AND playing a divisional opponent.

            For games in August:

1) All games have a clutch value of zero if the square of your games behind (or ahead), minus one, is larger than the number of games remaining after this game.   In other words, if there are 50 games left and you are ten games behind, the game has a clutch value of zero, since (10 – 1) squared is larger than 50.

2) If the team is not covered by the rule above but IS more than five games behind or ahead, the game has a clutch value of 2 if playing a divisional opponent, 1 if playing an out-of-division opponent.

3)  If the team is in the pennant race (that is, not covered by rules 1 or 2 above), all games have a clutch value of 3 if playing a divisional opponent, 2 if playing an out-of-division opponent.

            For games in September:

1) All games have a clutch value of -9 if the team has been eliminated.

2) All games have a clutch value of -12 if the team has already clinched the pennant.

3)  Games played with more than ten games remaining in the season (after this game) have a clutch value of 1 if the team is more than five games ahead or behind, but has not been eliminated.

4)  Games played by teams within five games of first place with more than ten games remaining in the season have a clutch value of 4 if played against a divisional opponent which also has not been eliminated, and a clutch value of 3 otherwise.

5) Games played by all teams not yet eliminated with five to ten games left in the season have a clutch value of 5 if played against a divisional opponent which also has not been eliminated, and a clutch value of 4 otherwise. 

6)  Games played on the last day of the season by teams not yet eliminated have a clutch value of 10.

7) Games not yet covered by any of these rules have a clutch value of 9 if the team is tied for first place, or if the team is one game ahead or one game behind and facing a divisional rival not yet eliminated.   

8) Games not yet covered by any of these rules have a clutch value of 8 if the team is one game behind or one game ahead, or if the team is two games behind or two games ahead and playing a divisional rival which is also in the race.

9)  Games not yet covered by any of these rules have a clutch value of 7 if the team is two games behind or two games ahead, or if they are three games behind but playing a divisional rival which is ahead of them. 

10)  Games not yet covered by any of these rules have a clutch value of 6.

            We add all of these points together, for each at bat of the season—the values for the outs and runners on base, the values for the inning and the score of the game, and the values for the pennant race.   It the total is 10 or more, it’s a clutch at bat.   If the total is 9 or less, it’s not a clutch at bat. 

            In the first game of the 2008 season, with Oakland playing the Red Sox in Tokyo on March 25, the Red Sox trailed 2-0 in the sixth inning.   Manny Ramirez hit a two-run double, tying the score.  The game went into the eleventh inning, now tied 4-4.  Ramirez hit another two-run double, putting the Red Sox ahead.

            On April 12 at Fenway Park, the Red Sox trailed the Yankees 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth (Ramirez had homered earlier for the one Red Sox run.)   Ramirez hit another two-run double, tying the score.  Moments later he scored what proved to be the game winning run.

            Two days later in Cleveland, the Red Sox were tied 4-4 with two out in the ninth inning.  Boom.  Two-run homer.   Red Sox win, 6-4.

            On April 17 at Yankee Stadium, Ramirez homered twice and drove in three runs, leading the Red Sox to a 7-5 win.

            Two days later, playing the Rangers in Fenway Park, the game was tied 3-3 in the bottom of the 8^th, Ramirez at bat, man on first.   Home Run.   5-3. 

            After that incredible run of clutch hits early in the season, Ramirez did not have another really big hit until July.   On July 7 at Fenway, the Sox and Twins played scoreless ball into the bottom of the 8^th.    Ramirez singled, driving in Pedroia, and the Sox won 1-0.

            The next day the Red Sox trailed the Twins 5-4 in the bottom of the eighth, bases empty.  Ramirez homered, tying the game.   The Sox won, 6-5.

            Manny was injured shortly after that, or something, and that was the last big hit he would get as a member of the Red Sox.  

            Ramirez’ heroics with the Dodgers are so well-chronicled that we may not need to recount them here but briefly:  a .396 average with 17 homers, 53 RBI in 53 games.   The Dodgers, 54-54 before Manny arrived, won their division, with Ramirez hitting .500 and .533 in two rounds of playoff games, adding four more homers and 10 more RBI in eight post-season games.  

            For the season (and not including the playoffs), Manny hit .405 in the season’s most important at bats, 34 for 77, with half of the hits being for extra bases (10 doubles, 7 homers.)   He drove in 40 runs in clutch situations, tying Carlos Pena for the major league lead.   His OPS in clutch situations was 1.279 (.505 on base percentage, .774 slugging.) 

            Diverging into Pena. . .in 2007, when Pena had a career year, he hit very poorly in clutch situations, just .167 with 10 RBI in 42 clutch at bats.  Last year, although he was not as devastating overall, he hit 8 clutch homers, averaged .293, and drove in 40 clutch runs, same as Manny and more than anybody else. 

            Another guy who had a really good year in the clutch is a player who had a similar winter, Adam Dunn.   Dunn had just 59 clutch at bats and hit just .288 in clutch situations—but 14 of 17 clutch hits were for extra bases, including a major-league leading 9 bombs.   Think about it this way:  The Atlanta Braves didn’t have anyone on their team with more than one clutch homer, and the team total was 5.   Adam Dunn had 9.   That’s a bunch. 

            Back to our award winner.  Manny is an unusual person and an unusual player, and, as has been well-documented, you can love him or you can loathe him.   Sometimes Manny pursues his self-interest to the point of self-destruction.   I have been a little too close to the situation to speak wistfully of Manny, but this is a factual, nuts-and-bolts analysis.   The fact is, nobody had more big hits in 2008 than Manny Ramirez.