As Spring Training nears, every one from dormant beat writers to baseball annualists to casual fans start gearing up for a seven month trek through mountains of data, happenings, failures and successes. Because man feigns control over his destiny, most will prognosticate what the coming months will look like. For some, largely Pirates fans, this is the height of excitement and the pinnacle of the season, with everything after tumbling downhill, sometimes in avalanche-form.* For others, it’s a reiteration of what they have always believed, and sets a framework for the rest of the season. For still others, the predictions help to differentiate seemingly identical middle infielders for that last imaginary roster spot.
Most of these predictions will be forgotten as soon as the real season starts, unless they are proven correct. In such a case, at least one person will remember them and attempt to spread the memory to as many people as will listen. A single brilliant prediction will last far longer than the season, while it’s far more numerous bogus selections will fade off into the silent infinitude of space. Bloggers will resurrect the predictions come November, make several jokes and move on to something that people really care about: Week 10 of the NFL season. Those are my predictions for how baseball predictions will be treated. I have a pretty strong feeling about them.
More importantly, I have a strong feeling about the following predictions, so much so that I have written an article challenging you to out-presage me. The rules are simple:
Five total predictions
1.) Playoff teams, including WC designation (+1 for each team correct, and an additional point for correctly identifying the means of getting in)
Example: Last year, a selection of Boston, Angels, Tigers, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers with Yankees and Brewers WCs would have netted 9 points. 2 each for Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Brewers, and one point for Boston
2.) Major Award Winners -RoY, MVP, Cy Young and MoY selections (+2 for each correctly chosen). A selection of a player ineligible for the award will count as a wrong answer (even if he receives votes for said award).
3-5.) Any three predictions that readers agree are unlikely based on the knowledge assumed for this site. This means that predicting the Royals to finish better than Buster Olney predicts does not count. Predicting them to finish +/- 10 games from BP’s projections would. These will, no doubt, be like pornography; we will know them when we see them. (Possibility of 10 points per prediction; judging will be arbitrary but predetermined)
Example: Someone predicts that the Tigers will win 92 games. Acceptable prediction given what projections seem to be for the team. Prior to the season, I will set a point value for each outcome. In this case, it would look like:
Tigers win 92 games: 10 points
Tigers win 93+ games: 9 points
Tigers win 89-91 games: 7 Points
Tigers win 84-88 games: 4 points
Tigers win <84 games: 0 points
I struggled with punishing people for terrible predictions, but decided that I am way too lazy to be assigning negative points on top of everything else.
Hopefully this makes sense, and I also would like to keep track of this throughout the season. The point scale for my three wild card predictions will be listed below, but I will be amenable to suggested changes from readers. Other than that, here are my predictions:
1.) Yankees, Indians, A’s, Red Sox WC. Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies WC.
2.) AL RoY: Matt Wieters
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (just over Miggy thanks to Indians winning sad division)
AL Cy Young: Francisco Liriano (wanted to pick Ervin Santana so badly…)
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington, Texas Rangers
NL RoY: Cameron Maybin
NL MVP: David Wright
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, SF Giants
3.) Both the Rangers and the Giants will finish in second place in their divisions, within 4 games of the division winner.
Scale:
Both Teams finish second place, within 4 games: 10 points
Both teams finish at LEAST second place, no game limit: 9 points
Both teams finish within 4 games, but one or both teams finish outside second: 7 points
One team finishes within 4 games and in second place, other team does not: 4 points
None of the above: 0 points
4.) A-Rod comes back in May, destroys AL pitching and wins the MVP award.
Scale (harsher because it’s also a hedge on an above prediction):
A-Rod returns in May, wins MVP: 10 points
A-Rod is top 5 in MVP, or returns in April and wins MVP: 5 points
A-Rod returns in May and receives an MVP vote: 2 points
All others: 0 Points
5.) There following players all go at least 20-30: Grady Sizemore, Matt Kemp, Ian Kinsler, Jose Reyes, BJ Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rios.
Scale (happened twice last year, as a baseline):
All seven go 20-30, no one else does: 10 points
All seven go 20-30, but so does someone else: 9 points
Six of the Seven: 7 points
Five of the Seven: 4 points
Four of the Seven: 1 point
Three or fewer: 0 points
* Talk about blowing through your allotment of "mountain trek" words, phrases and allusions in no time.