Remember me

The Strike Zone Won-Lost Record Pt II

March 31, 2009

            Dazzy Vance did not win a major league game until he was 31 years old.    Throughout the teens, the 19-teens, he was a minor league pitcher who had several looks from major league teams, but couldn’t stay healthy and couldn’t find the strike zone.  

            I’m on the road and away from my library, so I’m going to tell this story from memory and hope I have most of it right.  In the winter of 1919-1920, playing poker with some buddies in a small city in the South, Dazzy pounded the table in frustration when a hand went against him.  His arm exploded in unbearable pain.   This was before emergency rooms, and they had to rustle up a doctor the way it was done then, by asking around and trying to make a phone call to get somebody to come.   Dazzy was operated on two or three hours later, in a private home in the middle of the night, by a doctor whose name he never knew.   Whatever the doctor did, however, it ended twelve years of arm trouble.   The best guess is that Dazzy had floating bone chips in the elbow, and the doctor removed them.   Dazzy, who typically would pitch 150 innings a season before then with control troubles, was able to pitch 250 innings a year after that, at a Hall of Fame level.

            Dazzy led the National League in strikeouts every year from 1922 to 1928, which doesn’t capture what he was really doing.   It was an era of very few strikeouts.  The National League average in all of those years was less than three strikeouts per nine innings.   Dazzy was striking out seven to eight.   No other National League pitcher in those years struck out more than 155 batters in a season.   Dazzy struck out 262, 221, 200, 197 and 184.   His strikeout totals, relative to the league norms, are higher than Bob Feller’s, higher than Koufax, higher than Nolan Ryan, higher than anybody.  These are the top ten “Strike Zone Win Totals” since 1900:

 

First

Last

Team

Year

KZW

 

Dazzy

Vance

Brooklyn Dodgers

1924

47

 

Rube

Waddell

Philadelphia Athletics

1904

43

 

Rube

Waddell

Philadelphia Athletics

1902

41

 

Bob

Feller

Cleveland Indians

1946

41

 

Dazzy

Vance

Brooklyn Dodgers

1925

40

 

Rube

Waddell

Philadelphia Athletics

1903

39

 

Christy

Mathewson

New York Giants

1903

39

 

Christy

Mathewson

New York Giants

1908

38

 

Nolan

Ryan

Los Angeles Angels

1973

38

 

Nolan

Ryan

Los Angeles Angels

1974

37

 

            Vance in 1924 struck out 262 batters when the league average was 2.77 strikeouts per nine innings.   That computes to 47 Stike Zone Wins—a modern record.  Dazzy also walked some people, but not like Nolan Ryan did; we’ll talk about Nolan later. 

            Is the 47 wins a realistic number?   Sure it is.   What’s the record for “natural wins?” in the 20th century.  It’s 41.   Two pitchers in the 20th century were credited with 40 wins; five are credited with 40 strike zone wins.    His impact was huge.   He won the MVP Award.   He went 28-6, lifting a team that was 64-56 otherwise within one game of the National League title.  It’s just a massive season.   This is Vance year by year:

Pitcher

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

Vance

1915

0

4

.000

18

21

2

4

.372

1.863

Vance

1918

0

0

.000

0

2

0

0

.000

1.232

Vance

1922

18

12

.600

134

94

24

17

.593

1.510

Vance

1923

18

15

.545

197

100

36

18

.669

1.709

Vance

1924

28

6

.824

262

77

47

15

.763

1.809

Vance

1925

22

9

.710

221

66

40

12

.775

1.735

Vance

1926

9

10

.474

140

58

25

10

.713

1.893

Vance

1927

16

15

.516

184

69

32

12

.722

1.467

Vance

1928

22

10

.688

200

72

36

11

.758

1.528

Vance

1929

14

13

.519

126

47

22

7

.754

1.137

Vance

1930

17

15

.531

173

55

27

9

.750

1.265

Vance

1931

11

13

.458

150

53

24

9

.720

1.353

Vance

1932

12

11

.522

103

57

17

11

.596

1.423

Vance

1933

6

2

.750

67

28

12

6

.668

1.577

Vance

1934

1

3

.250

42

25

6

5

.568

1.253

Vance

1935

3

2

.600

28

16

4

3

.585

1.264

Career

 

197

140

.585

 

 

354

149

.704

1.527

 

            In the interests of accuracy, though, it was an era in which there were very few power pitchers.   Nolan Ryan pitched in an era in which there were more power pitchers—not like now, where everybody throws 90, but more than the 1920s.   This perhaps exaggerates Vance’s impact. 

            Vance introduces us to the reality that there are some pitchers whose Strike Zone Wins and Losses just really do not resemble anyone’s official wins and losses.   Dazzy lost a lot of games with walks, but he won so many that his percentage is the highest of all time. 

            We looked in Part I of this article at the top ten career winning percentages.   Let’s extend that now to the top 50.   I’ll use Bold Face for the Hall of Famers:

Rank

First

Last

W

L

WPct

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

1

Dazzy

Vance

197

140

.585

354

149

.704

1.527

2

Cy

Young

511

316

.618

464

203

.696

.816

3

Christy

Mathewson

373

188

.665

347

154

.693

.942

4

Walter

Johnson

417

279

.599

499

222

.692

1.096

5

Curt

Schilling

216

146

.597

237

106

.690

.947

6

Pedro

Martinez

214

99

.684

242

112

.683

1.145

7

Lefty

Grove

300

141

.680

356

166

.682

1.192

8

Dizzy

Dean

150

83

.644

177

84

.678

1.195

9

Deacon

Phillippe

189

109

.634

140

67

.677

.713

10

Carl

Hubbell

253

154

.622

257

123

.676

.952

11

Bret

Saberhagen

167

117

.588

148

71

.676

.768

12

Dennis

Eckersley

197

171

.535

232

112

.675

.943

13

Noodles

Hahn

130

94

.580

148

72

.672

.979

14

Babe

Adams

194

140

.581

153

75

.670

.684

15

Mike

Mussina

270

153

.638

226

114

.665

.858

16

Jim

Whitney

191

204

.484

210

107

.662

.816

17

Tommy

Bond

193

115

.627

176

90

.662

.862

18

Pete

Alexander

373

208

.642

326

169

.658

.858

19

Rube

Waddell

193

143

.574

324

169

.657

1.498

20

Ferguson

Jenkins

284

226

.557

301

158

.655

.918

21

Robin

Roberts

286

245

.539

252

133

.655

.740

22

Jon

Lieber

129

121

.516

114

60

.653

.727

23

Ron

Guidry

170

91

.651

181

97

.651

1.046

24

Larry

Jansen

122

89

.578

106

58

.649

.836

25

Ed

Walsh

195

126

.607

215

117

.648

1.009

26

Brad

Radke

148

139

.516

116

64

.646

.661

27

Syl

Johnson

112

117

.489

148

81

.646

.953

28

Don

Newcombe

149

90

.623

129

71

.646

.837

29

Toad

Ramsey

114

124

.479

203

113

.644

1.353

30

Rick

Reed

93

76

.550

74

41

.643

.675

31

Preacher

Roe

127

84

.602

128

72

.641

.941

32

Randy

Johnson

295

160

.648

379

212

.641

1.316

33

Harvey

Haddix

136

113

.546

161

90

.641

1.011

34

Schoolboy

Rowe

158

101

.610

132

75

.638

.837

35

Bert

Blyleven

287

250

.534

355

202

.638

1.008

36

Juan

Marichal

243

142

.631

201

114

.637

.809

37

Paul

Derringer

223

212

.513

226

130

.635

.879

38

Greg

Maddux

355

227

.610

263

151

.635

.744

39

David

Wells

239

157

.604

180

104

.634

.743

40

Don

Mossi

101

80

.558

93

54

.632

.857

41

Greg

Swindell

123

122

.502

129

75

.632

.822

42

Shane

Reynolds

114

96

.543

104

61

.632

.829

43

Jim

Bunning

224

184

.549

263

154

.630

1.000

44

John

Candelaria

177

122

.592

155

91

.630

.878

45

Javier

Vazquez

127

129

.496

150

88

.630

.947

46

Rollie

Fingers

114

118

.491

127

74

.630

1.064

47

Roger

Clemens

354

184

.658

389

229

.630

1.131

48

Ken

Raffensberger

119

154

.436

108

65

.626

.724

49

Kid

Nichols

361

208

.634

332

200

.624

.948

50

Sandy

Koufax

165

87

.655

215

131

.622

1.340

 

            Even at the bottom of the top 50, we’re dealing mostly with Hall of Famers.  I decided to put Don Mossi in the Hall of Fame.   I figured I owed it to him.    Also, from drawing up this list, we get a trivia question:  Can you name the only Hall of Fame pitcher ever with a below-average strikeout to walk ratio?   It’s Mickey Welch, 19th century 300-game winner.    But again, most pitchers, as you can see, have similarities between their actual and strike zone wins and losses.   Let’s break out Jim Bunning, just because he is very interesting:

Pitcher

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

Bunning

1955

3

5

.375

37

32

4

4

.507

1.461

Bunning

1956

5

1

.833

34

28

4

3

.512

1.190

Bunning

1957

20

8

.714

182

72

19

10

.652

1.000

Bunning

1958

14

12

.538

177

79

18

12

.601

1.221

Bunning

1959

17

13

.567

201

75

20

11

.650

1.124

Bunning

1960

11

14

.440

201

64

21

9

.700

1.054

Bunning

1961

17

11

.607

194

71

19

10

.659

.950

Bunning

1962

19

10

.655

184

74

17

11

.623

.973

Bunning

1963

12

13

.480

196

69

17

11

.607

1.025

Bunning

1964

19

8

.704

219

46

19

8

.693

.872

Bunning

1965

19

9

.679

268

62

23

11

.679

1.029

Bunning

1966

19

14

.576

252

55

22

10

.684

.916

Bunning

1967

17

15

.531

253

73

22

13

.631

1.023

Bunning

1968

4

14

.222

95

48

8

9

.471

.974

Bunning

1969

13

10

.565

157

59

13

9

.594

.930

Bunning

1970

10

15

.400

147

56

12

8

.614

.834

Bunning

1971

5

12

.294

58

37

5

6

.474

.922

Career

 

224

184

.549

 

 

263

154

.630

1.000

 

            Bunning in ’61 and ’62 went 17-11 and 19-10, whether you look at actual wins and losses or Strike Zone Wins and Losses, although the order is reversed.  He was 19-8 both ways in ’64, the year he pitched his perfect game.  Like Warren Spahn, he posted the worst actual won-lost record of his prime years in a season in which he posted his best strikeout-walk ratio (relative to the league), but just had abysmal offensive support.   Speaking of which, let’s do Bert Blyleven, because 40% of my audience is obsessed with Bert Blyleven:

Pitcher

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

Blyleven

1970

10

9

.526

135

47

12

7

.641

1.023

Blyleven

1971

16

15

.516

224

59

21

9

.702

.951

Blyleven

1972

17

17

.500

228

69

21

11

.651

.998

Blyleven

1973

20

17

.541

258

67

25

10

.722

.970

Blyleven

1974

17

17

.500

249

77

25

12

.675

1.202

Blyleven

1975

15

10

.600

233

84

24

12

.661

1.164

Blyleven

1976

13

16

.448

219

81

23

13

.645

1.090

Blyleven

1977

14

12

.538

182

69

18

11

.631

1.106

Blyleven

1978

14

10

.583

182

66

18

10

.636

1.028

Blyleven

1979

12

5

.706

172

92

17

14

.539

1.183

Blyleven

1980

8

13

.381

168

59

17

10

.633

1.089

Blyleven

1981

11

7

.611

107

40

12

6

.648

1.009

Blyleven

1982

2

2

.500

19

11

2

2

.538

1.620

Blyleven

1983

7

10

.412

123

44

13

7

.644

1.129

Blyleven

1984

19

7

.731

170

74

17

12

.587

1.035

Blyleven

1985

17

16

.515

206

75

20

11

.635

.946

Blyleven

1986

17

14

.548

215

58

18

8

.685

.893

Blyleven

1987

15

12

.556

196

101

16

15

.530

1.041

Blyleven

1988

10

17

.370

145

51

13

8

.624

.918

Blyleven

1989

17

5

.773

131

44

12

7

.638

.699

Blyleven

1990

8

7

.533

69

25

6

4

.624

.656

Blyleven

1992

8

12

.400

70

29

6

4

.604

.726

Career

 

287

250

.534

 

 

355

202

.638

1.008

 

            Like Bunning and Schilling, Blyleven’s Strike Zone Winning Percentage is much better than his actual winning percentage.   Schilling’s Strike Zone Winning Percentage is 103 points better than his actual winning percentage; Blyleven’s is 104 points better.  Returning to the analogy of the structure, if this is Blyleven’s foundation and framework, he must have the worst carpet and drapes in the history of textiles.

            Those are rare things, where a pitcher has a strike zone winning percentage 100 points better or worse than his actual winning percentage.   89% of pitchers with 200 or more career decisions had strike zone winning percentages within 100 points of their actual winning percentages.   (As a control, I took the same two sets of winning percentages, actual and strike zone, and matched them at random.   73% were within 100 points.)   The largest discrepancy, actually, belongs to a 1940s/1950s left-hander Ken Raffensberger, most famous for his ability to get out Stan Musial.   Raffensberger, who pitched mostly for bad teams, had an actual won-lost record of 119-154 (.436), but a Strike Zone Winning Percentage of .626.  

            Raffensberger had a very low Power Index, and is symptomatic of what seems like an obvious conclusion.   A low Power Index on a good team works great, because you’re turning over the fate of the team to the defense.    A low Power Index on a bad team sucks.   These are the two lowest Power Indexes of all time, for pitchers pitching 100 or more innings in a season:

First

Last

Team

Year

W

L

WPct

IP

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

Slim

Sallee

Cincinnati Reds

1919

21

7

.750

228

24

20

4

4

.487

.329

Bill

Fischer

Kansas City A's

1962

4

12

.250

128

38

8

4

1

.760

.332

 

            Bill Fischer in 1962 was part of my childhood.   Christy Mathewson held the record for consecutive innings without issuing a walk, 65 or something like that.  It was a fairly well-known record, and Fischer broke it, pitching (as I recall) 86 consecutive innings without a walk.  I listened to every inning on the radio.  I died every time he got to 3 balls on a batter.

            But the ’62 A’s were a bad team, and, by not walking anybody and rarely striking anybody out, Fischer was putting the outcome in the hands of the defenders.  It was not a good defensive team, and the results were not pretty.   

            Slim Sallee, on the other hand, pitched for a World Championship team—the 1919 Reds—and a very good defensive team.   His strikeout and walk totals were absurdly low, but his defense took good care of him.   But in these pitchers, with extremely low (or extremely high) Power Indexes, the strike zone won-lost records no longer resemble the actual won-lost record.  We can see these patterns throughout the bottom ten:

Pitcher

Team

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Sallee

Cin

1919

21

7

.750

24

20

4

4

.487

.329

Fischer

KC

1962

4

12

.250

38

8

4

1

.760

.332

Silva

Minn

2005

9

8

.529

71

9

6

1

.795

.347

Zoldak

Phi A's

1951

6

10

.375

18

24

2

3

.444

.381

Sallee

2 Teams

1920

6

6

.500

15

16

3

3

.438

.398

Phillippe

Pitt

1910

14

2

.875

30

9

4

1

.748

.404

Quisenberry

KC

1984

6

3

.667

41

12

4

2

.679

.409

Tewksbury

StL

1990

10

9

.526

50

15

4

2

.650

.412

Mathewson

NY-N

1914

24

13

.649

80

23

11

4

.727

.419

Burdette

Mil

1960

19

13

.594

83

35

8

5

.578

.424

 

            Phillippe, Quisenberry, Mathewson and Burdette, who pitched for good teams, got good results with the no walks/few strikeouts approach.  Quisenberry joked about it.   “You know my record,” he said.   “30 strikeouts, 30 Saves, 30 great plays by Frank White.”   Carlos Silva and Bob Tewksbury, who pitched for OK teams, got OK results.   Fischer and Zoldak, pitching for bad teams, got ugly results. 

            Those are the lowest power indexes of all time, and these are the highest:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPCT

Power Index

Bobby

Witt

1987

8

10

.444

160

140

13

20

.399

2.107

Johnny

VanderMeer

1939

5

9

.357

102

95

15

15

.494

2.087

Bob

Feller

1937

9

7

.563

150

106

20

13

.603

2.052

Bobby

Witt

1986

11

9

.550

174

143

15

21

.417

2.047

Jakie

May

1919

3

12

.200

58

87

10

19

.346

2.031

Nolan

Ryan

1976

17

18

.486

327

183

35

29

.545

2.015

Mitch

Williams

1987

8

6

.571

129

94

11

14

.444

2.010

George

Earnshaw

1928

7

7

.500

117

100

19

16

.547

2.003

Nolan

Ryan

1977

19

16

.543

341

204

34

31

.520

1.974

Nolan

Ryan

1978

10

13

.435

260

148

29

23

.558

1.974

Bill

Bailey

1914

7

9

.438

131

68

16

12

.577

1.913

Bob

Feller

1938

17

11

.607

240

208

34

25

.572

1.903

Dazzy

Vance

1926

9

10

.474

140

58

25

10

.713

1.893

Randy

Johnson

1991

13

10

.565

228

152

20

22

.472

1.887

Ryne

Duren

1961

6

13

.316

115

79

11

11

.507

1.886

Herb

Score

1955

16

10

.615

245

154

28

20

.586

1.880

Nolan

Ryan

1974

22

16

.579

367

202

37

32

.539

1.876

Johnny

VanderMeer

1941

16

13

.552

202

126

28

19

.601

1.873

Joe

Krakauskas

1938

7

5

.583

104

88

15

11

.578

1.871

Randy

Johnson

1992

12

14

.462

241

144

22

21

.514

1.858

Mickey

McDermott

1950

7

3

.700

96

124

13

14

.479

1.853

Ralph

Branca

1945

5

6

.455

69

79

11

12

.484

1.851

Wild Bill

Hallahan

1930

15

9

.625

177

126

28

21

.573

1.850

Nolan

Ryan

1971

10

14

.417

137

116

13

19

.404

1.848

Mark

Littell

1978

4

8

.333

130

59

13

9

.583

1.836

                         

 

            I included more power pitchers than finesse pitchers because power pitchers are just inherently more interesting.   These are the guys who take over the game.   When Nolan Ryan pitches, it’s all about Nolan Ryan:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Nolan

Ryan

1966

0

1

.000

6

3

1

1

.486

3.215

Nolan

Ryan

1968

6

9

.400

133

75

11

14

.444

1.729

Nolan

Ryan

1969

6

3

.667

92

53

8

8

.488

1.576

Nolan

Ryan

1970

7

11

.389

125

97

11

14

.439

1.651

Nolan

Ryan

1971

10

14

.417

137

116

13

19

.404

1.848

Nolan

Ryan

1972

19

16

.543

329

157

30

25

.542

1.750

Nolan

Ryan

1973

21

16

.568

383

162

38

24

.615

1.687

Nolan

Ryan

1974

22

16

.579

367

202

37

32

.539

1.876

Nolan

Ryan

1975

14

12

.538

186

132

19

19

.498

1.718

Nolan

Ryan

1976

17

18

.486

327

183

35

29

.545

2.015

Nolan

Ryan

1977

19

16

.543

341

204

34

31

.520

1.974

Nolan

Ryan

1978

10

13

.435

260

148

29

23

.558

1.974

Nolan

Ryan

1979

16

14

.533

223

114

25

17

.589

1.685

Nolan

Ryan

1980

11

10

.524

200

98

20

16

.553

1.377

Nolan

Ryan

1981

11

5

.688

140

68

14

11

.572

1.509

Nolan

Ryan

1982

16

12

.571

245

109

23

18

.566

1.475

Nolan

Ryan

1983

14

9

.609

183

101

17

15

.520

1.456

Nolan

Ryan

1984

12

11

.522

197

69

17

11

.617

1.388

Nolan

Ryan

1985

10

12

.455

209

95

19

14

.568

1.298

Nolan

Ryan

1986

12

8

.600

194

82

16

12

.571

1.431

Nolan

Ryan

1987

8

16

.333

270

87

22

13

.636

1.493

Nolan

Ryan

1988

12

11

.522

228

87

20

15

.579

1.418

Nolan

Ryan

1989

16

10

.615

301

98

27

15

.646

1.600

Nolan

Ryan

1990

13

9

.591

232

74

20

11

.653

1.384

Nolan

Ryan

1991

12

6

.667

203

72

18

11

.627

1.472

Nolan

Ryan

1992

5

9

.357

157

69

15

10

.590

1.410

Nolan

Ryan

1993

5

5

.500

46

40

4

6

.415

1.304

Career

 

 

324

292

.526

 

 

542

432

.556

1.627

 

            A strike zone won-lost record of 542-432—truly one of the most amazing careers in the history of baseball.    Ryan has the highest career Power Index of any pitcher pitching 1,000 or more innings since 1900.   Cy Seymour (more famous as a hitter) had a higher Power Index at the very end of the 19th century, and Herb Score had a higher career power index is a career just short of 1,000 innings. Sam McDowell:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Sam

McDowell

1961

0

0

.000

5

5

0

1

.414

1.740

Sam

McDowell

1962

3

7

.300

70

70

7

10

.400

1.694

Sam

McDowell

1963

3

5

.375

63

44

6

7

.438

1.743

Sam

McDowell

1964

11

6

.647

177

100

14

16

.482

1.559

Sam

McDowell

1965

17

11

.607

325

132

27

20

.576

1.559

Sam

McDowell

1966

9

8

.529

225

102

19

17

.534

1.658

Sam

McDowell

1967

13

15

.464

236

123

19

20

.491

1.496

Sam

McDowell

1968

15

14

.517

283

110

24

18

.566

1.404

Sam

McDowell

1969

18

14

.563

279

102

25

14

.639

1.236

Sam

McDowell

1970

20

12

.625

304

131

27

19

.590

1.345

Sam

McDowell

1971

13

17

.433

192

153

18

23

.438

1.692

Sam

McDowell

1972

10

8

.556

122

86

11

13

.446

1.328

Sam

McDowell

1973

6

10

.375

110

93

10

14

.421

1.599

Sam

McDowell

1974

1

6

.143

33

41

3

6

.341

1.846

Sam

McDowell

1975

2

1

.667

29

20

3

3

.499

1.479

Career

 

 

141

134

.513

 

 

213

200

.515

1.494

 

            A mediocre pitcher, yes, but an unforgettable one.   Sudden Sam dances around .500, but note that, with the exceptions of 1964 and 1972, when his strike zone winning percentage is over .500, so is his actual winning percentage, and when his strike zone winning percentage is under .500, so is his actual winning percentage.  J. R. Richard:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

J.R.

Richard

1971

2

1

.667

29

16

3

3

.510

2.243

J.R.

Richard

1972

1

0

1.000

8

8

1

1

.362

2.933

J.R.

Richard

1973

6

2

.750

75

38

7

6

.548

1.581

J.R.

Richard

1974

2

3

.400

42

36

4

5

.444

1.283

J.R.

Richard

1975

12

10

.545

176

138

17

20

.467

1.654

J.R.

Richard

1976

20

15

.571

214

151

22

23

.480

1.392

J.R.

Richard

1977

18

12

.600

214

104

20

16

.560

1.195

J.R.

Richard

1978

18

11

.621

303

141

29

22

.577

1.670

J.R.

Richard

1979

18

13

.581

313

98

31

15

.666

1.413

J.R.

Richard

1980

10

4

.714

119

40

12

7

.643

1.448

Career

 

 

107

71

.601

 

 

145

117

.554

1.469

 

            J. R. in 1979 was the last pitcher to post 30 Strike Zone Wins in a season.   Herb Score:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Herb

Score

1955

16

10

.615

245

154

28

20

.586

1.880

Herb

Score

1956

20

9

.690

263

129

28

16

.638

1.573

Herb

Score

1957

2

1

.667

39

26

4

4

.527

1.968

Herb

Score

1958

2

3

.400

48

34

5

5

.487

2.193

Herb

Score

1959

9

11

.450

147

115

15

17

.470

1.767

Herb

Score

1960

5

10

.333

78

87

8

12

.399

1.584

Herb

Score

1961

1

2

.333

14

24

1

3

.292

1.728

Herb

Score

1962

0

0

.000

3

4

0

1

.333

1.278

Career

 

 

55

46

.545

 

 

89

77

.537

1.740

 

            Bob Feller:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Bob

Feller

1936

5

3

.625

76

47

12

6

.666

2.550

Bob

Feller

1937

9

7

.563

150

106

20

13

.603

2.052

Bob

Feller

1938

17

11

.607

240

208

34

25

.572

1.903

Bob

Feller

1939

24

9

.727

246

142

34

18

.652

1.601

Bob

Feller

1940

27

11

.711

261

118

34

16

.678

1.396

Bob

Feller

1941

25

13

.658

260

194

36

25

.590

1.611

Bob

Feller

1945

5

3

.625

59

35

9

5

.626

1.713

Bob

Feller

1946

26

15

.634

348

153

41

21

.657

1.512

Bob

Feller

1947

20

11

.645

196

127

26

16

.612

1.281

Bob

Feller

1948

19

15

.559

164

116

23

14

.632

1.181

Bob

Feller

1949

15

14

.517

108

84

15

9

.624

1.029

Bob

Feller

1950

16

11

.593

119

103

16

12

.579

1.001

Bob

Feller

1951

22

8

.733

111

95

15

12

.554

.964

Bob

Feller

1952

9

13

.409

81

83

10

11

.467

.979

Bob

Feller

1953

10

7

.588

60

60

8

8

.476

.805

Bob

Feller

1954

13

3

.813

59

39

7

5

.576

.791

Bob

Feller

1955

4

4

.500

25

31

3

4

.418

.736

Bob

Feller

1956

0

4

.000

18

23

2

3

.403

.731

Career

 

 

266

162

.621

 

 

344

225

.605

1.336

 

            And Feller was the last pitcher to post 40 Strike Zone Wins in a season.  Lefty Grove, who I sometimes think was the greatest pitcher of all time:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Lefty

Grove

1925

10

12

.455

116

131

21

19

.535

1.819

Lefty

Grove

1926

13

13

.500

194

101

34

15

.701

1.701

Lefty

Grove

1927

20

13

.606

174

79

31

12

.723

1.491

Lefty

Grove

1928

24

8

.750

183

64

30

10

.747

1.384

Lefty

Grove

1929

20

6

.769

170

81

29

12

.705

1.342

Lefty

Grove

1930

28

5

.848

209

60

31

9

.772

1.247

Lefty

Grove

1931

31

4

.886

175

62

27

9

.744

1.110

Lefty

Grove

1932

25

10

.714

188

79

29

11

.723

1.221

Lefty

Grove

1933

24

8

.750

114

83

18

11

.606

.954

Lefty

Grove

1934

8

8

.500

43

32

6

4

.591

.848

Lefty

Grove

1935

20

12

.625

121

65

19

9

.682

.899

Lefty

Grove

1936

17

12

.586

130

65

20

8

.711

1.000

Lefty

Grove

1937

17

9

.654

153

83

21

11

.664

1.081

Lefty

Grove

1938

14

4

.778

99

52

14

6

.688

1.106

Lefty

Grove

1939

15

4

.789

81

58

11

8

.602

.889

Lefty

Grove

1940

7

6

.538

62

50

8

7

.541

.869

Lefty

Grove

1941

7

7

.500

54

42

8

5

.580

.871

Career

 

 

300

141

.680

 

 

356

166

.682

1.192

 

            The Big Unit:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Randy

Johnson

1988

3

0

1.000

25

7

2

1

.652

1.168

Randy

Johnson

1989

7

13

.350

130

96

11

15

.427

1.463

Randy

Johnson

1990

14

11

.560

194

120

17

18

.493

1.425

Randy

Johnson

1991

13

10

.565

228

152

20

22

.472

1.887

Randy

Johnson

1992

12

14

.462

241

144

22

21

.514

1.858

Randy

Johnson

1993

19

8

.704

308

99

27

14

.658

1.433

Randy

Johnson

1994

13

6

.684

204

72

17

10

.637

1.379

Randy

Johnson

1995

18

2

.900

294

65

24

9

.739

1.377

Randy

Johnson

1996

5

0

1.000

85

25

7

3

.675

1.481

Randy

Johnson

1997

20

4

.833

291

77

23

11

.673

1.421

Randy

Johnson

1998

19

11

.633

329

86

26

13

.673

1.410

Randy

Johnson

1999

17

9

.654

364

70

27

9

.744

1.212

Randy

Johnson

2000

19

7

.731

347

76

26

10

.722

1.289

Randy

Johnson

2001

21

6

.778

372

71

27

11

.714

1.344

Randy

Johnson

2002

24

5

.828

334

71

25

10

.708

1.206

Randy

Johnson

2003

6

8

.429

125

27

9

4

.698

1.032

Randy

Johnson

2004

16

14

.533

290

44

22

7

.768

1.026

Randy

Johnson

2005

17

8

.680

211

47

17

8

.688

.993

Randy

Johnson

2006

17

11

.607

172

60

13

9

.587

.999

Randy

Johnson

2007

4

3

.571

72

13

5

2

.734

1.162

Randy

Johnson

2008

11

10

.524

173

44

12

6

.660

.918

Career

 

 

295

160

.648

 

 

379

212

.641

1.316

 

            And Walter:

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

Walter

Johnson

1907

5

9

.357

71

20

10

4

.696

1.137

Walter

Johnson

1908

14

14

.500

160

53

20

11

.640

1.103

Walter

Johnson

1909

13

25

.342

164

84

20

17

.547

1.132

Walter

Johnson

1910

25

17

.595

313

76

37

14

.730

1.239

Walter

Johnson

1911

25

13

.658

207

70

25

12

.678

1.015

Walter

Johnson

1912

33

12

.733

303

76

36

12

.745

1.170

Walter

Johnson

1913

36

7

.837

243

38

30

6

.833

.949

Walter

Johnson

1914

28

18

.609

225

74

27

12

.699

.948

Walter

Johnson

1915

27

13

.675

203

56

26

8

.759

.910

Walter

Johnson

1916

25

20

.556

228

82

30

13

.707

1.047

Walter

Johnson

1917

23

16

.590

188

68

28

11

.719

1.087

Walter

Johnson

1918

23

13

.639

162

70

28

11

.713

1.077

Walter

Johnson

1919

20

14

.588

147

51

23

8

.731

.975

Walter

Johnson

1920

8

10

.444

78

27

13

4

.752

1.097

Walter

Johnson

1921

17

14

.548

143

92

24

14

.630

1.316

Walter

Johnson

1922

15

16

.484

105

99

18

16

.529

1.096

Walter

Johnson

1923

17

12

.586

130

73

22

11

.670

1.133

Walter

Johnson

1924

23

7

.767

158

77

30

11

.724

1.325

Walter

Johnson

1925

20

7

.741

108

78

20

11

.643

1.213

Walter

Johnson

1926

15

16

.484

125

73

22

11

.676

1.124

Walter

Johnson

1927

5

6

.455

48

26

9

4

.687

1.055

Career

 

 

417

279

.599

 

 

499

222

.692

1.096

 

            The Big Train actually has power rates near 1.00 and strike zone won-lost records that resemble his actual won-lost records for much of his career, particularly 1911-1915.   Let us notice again that many of these pitchers have “victory margins” in the strike zone won-lost record that are similar to their actual margins, although the wins and losses are both higher.   Sam McDowell is +7 (141-134) and +13.   J. R. Richard is +36 and +28.   Herb Score is +9 and +12.    Bob Feller is +104 and +119.    Lefty Grove is +159 and +190.  Randy Johnson is +135 and +167.  

 

            OK, I’ve finished my to-do list now, except for the top 100 single-season Strike Zone Winning Percentages of all time.    The number one single-season Strike Zone Winning Percentage of all time, minimum 100 innings pitched or 150 innings pitched, is (drum roll, please). .. …Bret Saberhagen, 1994.    Saberhagen in fact was 14-4, with 143 strikeouts, 13 walks in 177 innings, a strike zone winning percentage of .849.    These are the top 25 seasons of all time, 150 innings minimum, with others noted for Curt Schilling:

Rank

First

Last

Year

W

L

WPct

SO

BB

KZW

KZL

KZWPct

Power Index

1

Bret

Saberhagen

1994

14

4

.778

143

13

11

2

.849

.672

2

Pedro

Martinez

2000

18

6

.750

284

32

23

4

.841

1.116

3

Pedro

Martinez

1999

23

4

.852

313

37

25

5

.835

1.268

4

Walter

Johnson

1913

36

7

.837

243

38

30

6

.833

.949

5

Curt

Schilling

2002

23

7

.767

316

33

23

5

.831

.974

6

Christy

Mathewson

1908

37

11

.771

259

42

38

8

.826

1.072

7

Greg

Maddux

1997

19

4

.826

177

20

13

3

.817

.608

8

Cy

Young

1901

33

10

.767

158

37

31

7

.813

.916

9

Jim

Whitney

1884

23

14

.622

270

27

28

7

.808

.923

10

Ben

Sheets

2004

12

14

.462

264

32

20

5

.806

.923

11

Cy

Young

1905

18

19

.486

210

30

25

6

.805

.874

12

Ray

Prim

1945

13

8

.619

88

23

14

3

.804

.947

13

Ferguson

Jenkins

1971

24

13

.649

263

37

24

6

.803

.835

14

Greg

Maddux

1995

19

2

.905

181

23

14

3

.798

.734

15

Babe

Adams

1920

17

13

.567

84

18

14

4

.795

.621

16

Carlos

Silva

2005

9

8

.529

71

9

6

1

.795

.347

17

Tommy

Bond

1876

31

13

.705

88

13

39

10

.794

1.091

18

Jim

Whitney

1883

37

21

.638

345

35

46

12

.794

1.023

19

Dennis

Eckersley

1985

11

7

.611

117

19

11

3

.786

.719

20

Cy

Young

1900

19

19

.500

115

36

23

7

.782

.840

21

Cy

Young

1904

26

16

.619

200

29

25

7

.782

.742

22

Curt

Schilling

2001

22

6

.786

293

39

21

6

.782

.940

23

Deacon

Phillippe

1903

25

9

.735

123

29

18

5

.782

.712

24

Cy

Young

1906

13

21

.382

140

25

19

5

.777

.746

25

Preacher

Roe

1945

14

13

.519

148

46

23

7

.776

1.160

43

Curt

Schilling

2006

15

7

.682

183

28

14

4

.764

.821

62

Curt

Schilling

2003

8

9

.471

194

32

14

5

.752

1.009

66

Curt

Schilling

2004

21

6

.778

203

35

16

5

.750

.833

96

Curt

Schilling

1997

17

11

.607

319

58

23

8

.735

1.115

 

            Among the top 100 seasons of all time Schilling has 6.   Only one other pitcher has as many:  Cy Young.  Cy Young has 9 of the top 100 seasons.  Christy Mathewson has 5, Dazzy Vance has 5, Greg Maddux has 4,  Babe Adams has 3, Lefty Grove has 3, Carl Hubbell has 3, Fergie Jenkins has 3, Randy Johnson has 3, Walter Johnson has 3, Pedro Martinez has 3, Grasshopper Jim Whitney has 3, Tommy Bond has 2, Dizzy Dean has 2, Bobby Mathews has 2, Deacon Phillippe has 2, Ben Sheets has 2, Ed Walsh has 2, David Wells has 2, and 33 other pitchers have one apiece. 

            Well, the article’s too long; my apologies for that.   This line of thought was provoked by an off-hand comment by Alex Speier, so thank Alex for that.   I got interested in this approach; I thought it was worth reporting, and I hope I brought a few of you with me.    Thanks for reading.

 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

ventboys
I've heard of "Stuff" scores, so this might already be one that people use, but here goes:

K/w+hbp+(4 x hr)

I am not a researcher or a formula guy, so I have nothing other than this to offer. It's probably already in use, since it's so simple. I can also see that it would have to be adjusted in several ways; for team/park context, league context and era context at the very least. It does ecompass the 3 true outcomes.
11:39 PM Apr 3rd
 
ventboys
There aren't enough examples in this particular article, but I wonder how the power index can be used to figure some kind of "stuff" score. I'm thinking that, adding the rate of gopher balls to the mix and figuring out how to marry the ratios, something might pop up.

Lemme think, and mess around with some numbers...

11:23 PM Apr 3rd
 
tbell
This is wonderful work. It powerfully recontextualizes truths we’ve come to know about pitching in a general way (the primacy of strikeouts and walks in a pitcher’s impact on the game, and the pitcher’s minimal control over BABIP), organizing them into a valid, systematic, compelling statistic. I’ve always thought it crazy to say, as so many have, that Mathewson was the equal of Johnson, or Maddux the equal of Clemens, for precisely this consideration. Johnson and Clemens did so much more, on their own, to win games than the other two.

Which your new method beautifully illuminates. Johnson and Mathewson have basically the same KZW%, but Johnson has almost exactly as many KZ WINS as Mathewson has KZ decisions. Similarly for Clemens vs. Maddux.

This new method seems to do much of what component ERA was intended to do, but simpler and more powerfully, it seems to me.
11:14 AM Apr 1st
 
papahans5
- Totally worth it, Bill. Thanks a bunch. Delightful, meaningful, and even colorful information. Puts the accomplishments of talents like Schilling and Pedro in very meaningful perspective. Thanks, too, for finding a great way to revive our appreciation of Dazzy Vance.
- I wasn't around for Bill Fischer. But I know what it means to live or die w/ the 3 ball count. I've done it before. Last season even, w/ Jacoby Ellsbury's consecutive steals w/out being caught (to open a career) streak.
9:35 AM Apr 1st
 
Trailbzr
Kind of makes you wonder if there were a bunch of guys back then who might have thrown 90, except they had chips in their elbow and didn't know it.
However, this would appear to be a variation on the Gavvy Cravath problem: 10 home runs a year in a league where regulars average one, is not superior to hitting 40 in a league that averages ten.
5:23 PM Mar 31st
 
 
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