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Monday Morning Blog, Part Two

May 22, 2009

1.  Spliced Careers

            I would hate to know how many hours I have spent in my life creating mythical careers for baseball players.   I am certain that it comes to work-years, although whether I invested more time in this than Jack Kerouac did, I do not know.  I have hundreds of ways of creating mythical careers, and I am deeply ashamed of the time that I waste doing this, but I have to explain it to get to something I wanted to say, so. . .

            One simple way to create a mythical career is to splice together the careers of two actual players.   The trick here is to find two players whose abilities are so nearly identical that one may simply take the first part of one career and the second part of the other, and when you put them together it makes sense.   For example, Alex Johnson and Hal McRae:

 

AGE

 G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

21

43

109

18

33

7

1

4

18

6

26

1

2

.303

.495

.345

.840

22

97

262

27

77

9

3

8

28

15

60

4

4

.294

.443

.337

.780

23

25

86

7

16

0

1

2

6

5

18

1

1

.186

.279

.231

.510

24

81

175

20

39

9

2

1

12

9

26

6

3

.223

.314

.271

.586

25

149

603

79

188

32

6

2

58

26

71

16

6

.312

.395

.342

.737

26

139

523

86

165

18

4

17

88

25

69

11

8

.315

.463

.350

.813

27

156

614

85

202

26

6

14

86

35

68

17

2

.329

.459

.370

.830

28

148

539

71

167

36

4

15

88

54

68

11

8

.310

.475

.375

.850

29

126

480

58

147

38

6

5

71

47

47

11

8

.306

.442

.366

.808

30

149

527

75

175

34

5

8

73

64

43

22

12

.332

.461

.407

.868

31

162

641

104

191

54

11

21

92

59

43

18

14

.298

.515

.366

.881

32

156

623

90

170

39

5

16

72

51

62

17

8

.273

.429

.329

.757

33

101

393

55

113

32

4

10

74

38

46

5

4

.288

.466

.351

.816

34

124

489

73

145

39

5

14

83

29

56

10

2

.297

.483

.342

.825

35

101

389

38

106

23

2

7

36

34

33

3

4

.272

.396

.330

.726

36

159

613

91

189

46

8

27

133

55

61

4

4

.308

.542

.369

.910

37

157

589

84

183

41

6

12

82

50

68

2

3

.311

.462

.372

.833

38

106

317

30

96

13

4

3

42

34

47

0

3

.303

.397

.363

.760

39

112

320

41

83

19

0

14

70

44

45

0

1

.259

.450

.349

.799

40

112

278

22

70

14

0

7

37

18

39

0

0

.252

.378

.298

.675

41

18

32

5

10

3

0

1

9

5

1

0

0

.313

.500

.405

.905

 

2421

8602

1159

2565

532

83

208

1258

703

997

159

97

.298

.452

.356

.808

 

 

            That’s actually Alex Johnson’s career up to the age of 27, and Hal McRae from age 28 on, but their skills were so nearly the same that, when you splice them together, you get what looks like it could be one player.   McRae and Johnson were teammates with the Reds in 1968.   Either or both of them could have or should have been regulars on the Big Red Machine, but it didn’t work out for either of them.   Johnson hit .315 with 17 homers for the Reds in 1969, was traded to the Angels and won the American League batting title in 1970, hitting .329 with 14 homers, 86 RBI.   

            He lost most of the rest of his career, however, with what could charitably be called mental health issues.  I guess it would be uncharitable to call them anything else.  He couldn’t handle the stresses of being a major league player, and needed some serious psychiatric care in 1971, due to incidents involving not merely bringing a gun into the locker room, but threatening to use it on a teammate.   And he liked the teammate; it was one of his best friends.  He lost all of his good years from age 27 on.

            McRae, on the other hand, got a late start in his career due a very serious broken ankle.   He should have been a major league regular from 1970 on, but, due to the injury, didn’t really get his career started until 1974, when he was 28 years old.  The Reds traded them both to the American League for pitchers.   These are the consecutive seasons which form the splice:

 

AGE

 G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

27

156

614

85

202

26

6

14

86

35

68

17

2

.329

.459

.370

.830

28

148

539

71

167

36

4

15

88

54

68

11

8

.310

.475

.375

.850

 

            Can’t tell, can you?   That’s what’s called a “simple splice”.    Another simple splice is Rocky Colavito up to age 31 and Hank Sauer from ages 32 on:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

21

5

9

3

4

2

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

.444

.667

.444

1.111

22

101

322

55

89

11

4

21

65

49

46

0

1

.276

.531

.372

.903

23

134

461

66

116

26

0

25

84

71

80

1

6

.252

.471

.348

.819

24

143

489

80

148

26

3

41

113

84

89

0

2

.303

.620

.405

1.024

25

154

588

90

151

24

0

42

111

71

86

3

3

.257

.512

.337

.849

26

145

555

67

138

18

1

35

87

53

80

3

6

.249

.474

.317

.791

27

163

583

129

169

30

2

45

140

113

75

1

2

.290

.580

.402

.982

28

161

601

90

164

30

2

37

112

96

68

2

0

.273

.514

.371

.885

29

160

597

91

162

29

2

22

91

84

78

0

0

.271

.437

.358

.795

30

160

588

89

161

31

2

34

102

83

56

3

1

.274

.507

.366

.873

31

162

592

92

170

25

2

26

108

93

63

1

1

.287

.468

.383

.851

32

138

509

81

140

23

1

31

99

55

66

0

0

.275

.507

.349

.856

33

145

540

85

148

32

2

32

103

60

67

1

0

.274

.519

.350

.868

34

141

525

77

138

19

4

30

89

45

77

2

1

.263

.486

.325

.810

35

151

567

89

153

31

3

37

121

77

92

1

2

.270

.531

.361

.892

36

108

395

61

104

16

5

19

60

50

56

0

0

.263

.473

.349

.822

37

142

520

98

150

18

1

41

103

70

68

2

1

.288

.563

.375

.938

38

79

261

29

55

8

1

12

28

26

47

0

0

.211

.387

.286

.673

39

75

151

11

45

4

0

5

24

25

31

0

0

.298

.424

.403

.827

40

127

378

46

98

14

1

26

76

49

59

1

0

.259

.508

.343

.851

41

88

236

27

59

8

0

12

46

35

37

0

0

.250

.436

.354

.790

42

13

15

1

1

0

0

1

1

0

7

0

0

.067

.267

.067

.333

 

2695

9482

1457

2563

425

36

574

1763

1289

1330

21

26

.270

.504

.362

.866

 

            Rocky Colavito is not a Hall of Famer and Hank Sauer is not a Hall of Famer, but Rocky Sauer, he’s a Hall of Famer.  Alex McRae might be a Hall of Famer; not sure.   Sandy Vance, on the other hand, is two Hall of Famers:

 

AGE

W

L

PCT

G

GS

CG

 

IP

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

19

2

2

.500

12

5

2

 

42

33

15

14

30

28

3.00

20

2

4

.333

16

10

0

 

59

66

37

32

30

29

4.88

21

5

4

.556

34

13

2

 

104

83

49

45

122

51

3.89

22

11

11

.500

40

26

5

 

159

132

89

79

131

105

4.47

23

8

6

.571

35

23

6

 

153

136

74

69

173

92

4.06

24

8

13

.381

37

26

7

 

175

133

83

76

197

100

3.91

25

18

13

.581

42

35

15

 

256

212

117

100

269

96

3.52

26

14

7

.667

28

26

11

 

184

134

61

52

216

57

2.54

27

25

5

.833

40

40

20

 

311

214

68

65

306

58

1.88

28

19

5

.792

29

28

15

 

223

154

49

43

223

53

1.74

29

26

8

.765

43

41

27

 

336

216

90

76

382

71

2.04

30

27

9

.750

41

41

27

 

323

241

74

62

317

77

1.73

31

18

12

.600

36

30

16

 

245.2

259

122

101

134

94

3.70

32

18

15

.545

37

35

21

 

280

263

127

109

197

100

3.50

33

28

6

.824

35

34

30

 

308.1

238

89

74

262

77

2.16

34

22

9

.710

31

31

26

 

265.1

247

115

104

221

66

3.53

35

9

10

.474

24

22

12

 

169

172

80

73

140

58

3.89

36

16

15

.516

34

32

25

 

273.1

242

98

82

184

69

2.70

37

22

10

.688

38

32

24

 

280.1

226

79

65

200

72

2.09

38

14

13

.519

31

26

17

 

231.1

244

110

100

126

47

3.89

39

17

15

.531

35

31

20

 

258.2

241

97

75

173

55

2.61

40

11

13

.458

30

29

12

 

218.2

221

99

82

150

53

3.38

41

12

11

.522

27

24

9

 

175.2

171

90

82

103

57

4.20

42

6

2

.750

28

11

2

 

99

105

42

39

67

28

3.55

43

1

3

.250

25

6

1

 

77

90

47

39

42

25

4.56

44

3

2

.600

20

0

0

 

51

55

29

25

28

16

4.41

 

362

223

.619

828

657

352

 

5258

4528

2030

1763

4423

1634

3.02

 

            I think it was Sandy Vance who suggested this nonsense, actually.   Dazzy Vance and Sandy Koufax were both Dodgers, and are both Hall of Famers.   In 1970 the Dodgers came up with a good-looking rookie pitcher whose name was Sandy Vance.   After his first six starts he was 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA, a bit of a sensation.  Somebody—I think it was Jim Murray—pointed out that his name was put together from the Dodgers’ two greatest pitchers, and it occurred to me that, since Koufax retired at age 30 and Vance’ career didn’t really begin until he was 31, one could put together the two careers into one—and Vance’s 1924 MVP season (age 33) looks for all the world like a Koufax season.

            Simple splices are hard to do, because there aren’t that many combinations of players who

            1) Have essentially identical skill sets, and

            2) Have careers that fit together like a tongue and groove. 

            Easier to do, as a rule, are mixed-year splices, or what I call “Best Ball” careers.  Like Boog Powell and Norm Cash:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

Avg

OBA

SPct

OPS

19

4

13

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

2

0

0

.077

.077

.077

.154

20

124

400

44

97

13

2

15

53

38

79

1

1

.242

.304

.387

.691

21

140

491

67

130

22

2

25

82

49

87

1

2

.265

.317

.433

.750

22

134

424

74

123

17

0

39

99

76

91

0

0

.290

.345

.488

.833

23

144

472

54

117

20

2

17

72

71

93

1

1

.248

.345

.467

.812

24

140

491

78

141

18

0

34

109

67

125

0

4

.287

.351

.481

.832

25

121

353

64

101

16

3

18

63

65

58

4

2

.286

.393

.469

.862

26

159

535

119

193

22

8

41

132

124

85

11

5

.361

.444

.572

1.016

27

152

533

83

162

25

0

37

121

72

76

1

1

.304

.351

.469

.820

28

154

526

82

156

28

0

35

114

104

80

1

1

.297

.358

.479

.837

29

128

418

59

107

19

0

22

92

82

64

1

0

.256

.360

.477

.837

30

142

467

79

124

23

1

30

82

77

62

6

6

.266

.397

.516

.913

31

160

603

98

168

18

3

32

93

66

91

2

1

.279

.390

.509

.899

32

152

488

64

118

16

5

22

72

81

100

3

2

.242

.385

.500

.885

33

134

435

64

129

18

0

27

86

59

72

1

3

.297

.363

.469

.832

34

142

483

81

135

15

4

22

74

63

80

2

1

.280

.379

.495

.875

35

130

370

58

96

18

2

15

53

72

58

0

1

.259

.380

.491

.871

36

135

452

72

128

10

3

32

91

59

86

1

0

.283

.379

.495

.874

37

137

440

51

114

16

0

22

61

50

64

0

2

.259

.376

.491

.867

38

121

363

51

95

19

0

19

40

47

73

1

0

.262

.375

.490

.865

39

53

149

17

34

3

2

7

12

19

30

1

1

.228

.374

.488

.862

 

2706

8906

1359

2469

356

37

511

1602

1341

1556

38

34

.277

.376

.498

.874

 

            Ten of those are Boog Powell seasons, the other eleven are Norm Cash seasons, but, because Cash and Powell’s skills were the same, you can mix and match.   Claude Osteen and Curt Simmons:

 

Age

W

L

WPct

G

GS

CG

IP

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

17

0

0

.000

3

0

0

4

4

1

1

3

3

2.25

18

1

0

1.000

1

1

1

9

5

1

1

9

6

1.00

19

7

13

.350

31

22

7

170

169

110

92

86

108

4.87

20

4

10

.286

38

14

2

131

133

72

67

83

55

4.60

21

17

8

.680

31

27

11

215

178

93

81

146

88

3.39

22

8

13

.381

28

22

7

150

140

62

61

59

47

3.66

23

14

8

.636

28

28

15

201

170

72

63

141

70

2.82

24

15

13

.536

37

36

13

257

256

107

95

133

64

3.33

25

15

15

.500

40

40

9

287

253

95

89

162

78

2.79

26

17

14

.548

39

38

8

240

238

92

76

137

65

2.85

27

17

17

.500

39

39

14

288

298

116

103

152

52

3.22

28

12

11

.522

32

29

9

212

214

92

81

92

50

3.44

29

20

15

.571

41

41

16

321

293

103

95

183

74

2.66

30

16

14

.533

37

37

11

259

280

121

110

114

52

3.82

31

14

11

.560

38

38

11

259

262

108

101

109

63

3.51

32

20

11

.645

33

33

14

252

232

82

74

100

69

2.64

33

16

11

.593

33

33

12

237

227

97

87

86

61

3.30

34

15

9

.625

32

32

11

233

209

82

64

127

48

2.47

35

18

9

.667

34

34

12

244

233

106

93

104

49

3.43

36

9

15

.375

34

32

5

203

229

104

92

96

54

4.08

37

5

8

.385

29

15

4

111

114

56

52

38

35

4.23

38

5

8

.385

31

18

4

117

144

65

55

44

32

4.23

 

265

233

.532

689

609

196

4400

4281

1837

1633

2204

1223

3.34

 

            About half of those are Claude Osteen seasons and about half are Curt Simmons seasons, but they all look the same, so you can’t tell.   Part of what I like about that one is that that’s Osteen at age 17, and Simmons at age 18.   I have a million of those, but I’d better move on.

 

            Much more challenging than that is to take two players who basically have nothing in common, and splice them together by finding seasons to bridge the gap.    Let’s take Alex Cora and Stan Musial.   You would probably imagine that it is totally impossible to splice together Alex Cora and Stan Musial and make something that looks like a real career, but actually, it can be done.   What you do is, you take Alex Cora up to some point of his career when he has a pretty good season—let’s say age 26:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

 

            Then you take Stan Musial’s career from, let’s say, age 30 onward:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

30

152

578

124

205

30

12

32

108

98

40

4

5

.355

.614

.449

1.063

31

154

578

105

194

42

6

21

91

96

29

7

7

.336

.538

.432

0.97

32

157

593

127

200

53

9

30

113

105

32

3

4

.337

.609

.437

1.046

33

153

591

120

195

41

9

35

126

103

39

1

7

.330

.607

.428

1.036

34

154

562

97

179

30

5

33

108

80

39

5

4

.319

.566

.408

0.974

35

156

594

87

184

33

6

27

109

75

39

2

0

.310

.522

.386

0.908

36

134

502

82

176

38

3

29

102

66

34

1

1

.351

.612

.422

1.034

37

135

472

64

159

35

2

17

62

72

26

0

0

.337

.528

.423

0.95

38

115

341

37

87

13

2

14

44

60

25

0

2

.255

.428

.364

0.792

39

116

331

49

91

17

1

17

63

41

34

1

1

.275

.486

.354

0.841

40

123

372

46

107

22

4

15

70

52

35

0

0

.288

.489

.371

0.86

41

135

433

57

143

18

1

19

82

64

46

3

0

.330

.508

.416

0.924

42

124

337

34

86

10

2

12

58

35

43

2

0

.255

.404

.325

0.728

 

            Now we just have to find seasons that will make a transition between Cora at age 26--.291 with 5 homers, 28 RBI—and Musial at age 30--.355 with 32 homers, 108 RBI.   The first step is a quarter-step, so we need to find somebody who, at age 27, hit about .307 with about 12 homers, 48 RBI, a .390 on-base percentage and .479 slugging percentage—75% “Cora at age 26”, and 25% “Musial at age 30”.   The season that seems to fit the bill is John Valentin in 1994; Valentin, aged 27, hit .316 with 9 homers, 49 RBI.  Let’s append that to Cora’s career up to that point:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

27

84

301

53

95

26

2

9

49

42

38

3

1

.316

.505

.400

.905

 

            That’s not unreasonable, is it?   Cora, who hit .291 with 5 homers in 258 at bats at age 26, could have hit .316 with 9 homers in 301 at bats at age 27.    Or how about George Shuba in 1952:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

27

94

256

40

78

12

1

9

40

38

29

1

3

.305

.465

.395

.860

 

            I think I like that better.  OK, we’ll use George Shuba, 1952, as Stan Cora’s age-27 season.   A few other 27-year-olds who could fit in there nicely are Curtis Pride in 1996, Hank Edwards in 1946, Tommy Henrich in 1940, Ryan Spilborghs in 2007, and Randy Ready in 1987.

            Anyway, our alternate-reality Alex Cora has, at age 27, consolidated his progress of age 26, proving that that’s a real level of ability.  Now we have to go from .305 with 9 homers, 40 RBI to .355 with 32 homers, 108 RBI in three steps.   The first step should be somewhere around .322 with 17 homers, 63 RBI.  

            We start by identifying all 28-year-olds in baseball history who hit between .312 and .332.   By my count there are exactly 200 of them.   Next we focus on those who hit between 13 and 21 homers; by my count that leaves us with 27 players.   We’ll look for 53 to 73 RBI; that will leave us with nine players. 

            Those 9 players, chronologically, are Ron Northey, 1948, Cleon Jones, 1971, Bake McBride, 1977, Cecil Cooper, 1978, David Justice, 1994, Reggie Jefferson, 1997, Jeff Cirillo, 1998, Alex Ochoa, 2000, and Mark Kotsay, 2004.  These are their stats:

 

Player

YEAR

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

Avg

OBA

SPct

OPS

Ron Northey

1948

96

246

40

79

10

1

13

64

38

25

0

0

.321

.420

.528

.949

Cleon Jones

1971

136

505

63

161

24

6

14

69

53

87

6

5

.319

.382

.473

.856

Bake McBride

1977

128

402

76

127

25

6

15

61

32

44

36

7

.316

.364

.520

.884

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cecil Cooper

1978

107

407

60

127

23

2

13

54

32

72

3

4

.312

.359

.474

.833

David Justice

1994

104

352

61

110

16

2

19

59

69

45

2

4

.312

.427

.531

.958

Reggie Jefferson

1997

136

489

74

156

33

1

13

67

24

93

1

2

.319

.358

.470

.828

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Cirillo

1998

156

604

97

194

31

1

14

68

79

88

10

4

.321

.402

.445

.847

Alex Ochoa

2000

118

244

50

77

21

3

13

58

24

27

8

4

.316

.378

.586

.964

Mark Kotsay

2004

148

606

78

190

37

3

15

63

55

70

8

5

.314

.370

.459

.829

 

            Reggie Jefferson is obviously out, because his strikeout/walk ratio is totally wrong.   Cecil Cooper’s strikeout/walk data isn’t as out-of-line as Jefferson’s, but it’s not right, either.  Cleon Jones, Jeff Cirillo and Mark Kotsay all have more strikeouts and more playing time than we’re looking for, so we’ll get rid of them.  That leaves us with Northey, McBride, Justice and Ochoa:

 

Player

YEAR

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

Avg

OBA

SPct

OPS

Ron Northey

1948

96

246

40

79

10

1

13

64

38

25

0

0

.321

.420

.528

.949

Bake McBride

1977

128

402

76

127

25

6

15

61

32

44

36

7

.316

.364

.520

.884

David Justice

1994

104

352

61

110

16

2

19

59

69

45

2

4

.312

.427

.531

.958

Alex Ochoa

2000

118

244

50

77

21

3

13

58

24

27

8

4

.316

.378

.586

.964

 

            McBride would be perfect except for the stolen bases, but 36 steals would stick out like a sore thumb between Cora and Musial, so we’ll have to dismiss him.   Of the other three, I think the best match is Ochoa. 

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

27

94

256

40

78

12

1

9

40

38

29

1

3

.305

.465

.395

.860

28

118

244

50

77

21

3

13

58

24

27

8

4

.316

.586

.378

.964

 

            So now we are creating a narrative.  Our utility player, after having a surprisingly solid year with the bat at age 26 (.291 with an .805 OPS), stays in the same role for the next two years—but continues to make progress with the bat.   Nothing remarkable; from .291 to .305 to .316, some gains in power, but essentially the same player.   At age 29, of course, he needs to increase his playing time.

            At age 29 we’ll look for someone who hits about .335 with 23 homers, 83 RBI, and also, we’ll need someone who is in the 400s in at bats.  

            By my count there are 542 29-year-olds in history who had 400 to 499 at bats, so we’ll start with those guys.  (My count is through 2007, as I never have gotten around to updating the data base I am using to include 2008.)  Anyway, of those 542 players, there are 30 who had batting averages between .320 and .350.   Of those 30, there are five who hit between 18 and 28 homers.  Those five are Bob Watson, 1975, Bernie Williams, 1998, Carl Everett, 1999, Jeffrey Hammonds, 2000, and Paul LoDuca, 2001:

 

Player

YEAR

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

Avg

OBA

SPct

OPS

Bob Watson

1975

132

485

67

157

27

1

18

85

40

50

3

5

.324

.375

.495

.870

Bernie Williams

1998

128

499

101

169

30

5

26

97

74

81

15

9

.339

.422

.575

.997

Carl Everett

1999

123

464

86

151

33

3

25

108

50

94

27

7

.325

.398

.571

.969

Jeffrey Hammonds

2000

122

454

94

152

24

2

20

106

44

83

14

7

.335

.395

.529

.924

Paul Lo Duca

2001

125

460

71

147

28

0

25

90

39

30

2

4

.320

.374

.543

.917

 

            Williams, Everett and Hammonds all strike out too much, so that leaves us with Watson and LoDuca.   Either of those will work, but LoDuca had a better year, which leaves us with less distance to go to get to Musial, so let’s use LoDuca:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

27

94

256

40

78

12

1

9

40

38

29

1

3

.305

.465

.395

.860

28

118

244

50

77

21

3

13

58

24

27

8

4

.316

.586

.378

.964

29

125

460

71

147

28

0

25

90

39

30

2

4

.320

.543

.374

.917

 

            The performance at age 29 is essentially the same as at age 28; it’s just that the playing time that has increased—which is reasonable; he’s entitled to increase his playing time after three outstanding years off the bench.   Now we put Musial back on there, and we have a career:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

22

29

33

1

4

0

1

0

0

2

8

0

0

.121

.182

.194

.376

23

11

30

2

5

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

0

.167

.200

.194

.394

24

109

353

39

84

18

6

4

32

26

53

4

1

.238

.357

.302

.658

25

134

405

38

88

18

3

4

29

31

58

0

2

.217

.306

.285

.591

26

115

258

37

75

14

4

5

28

26

38

7

2

.291

.434

.371

.805

27

94

256

40

78

12

1

9

40

38

29

1

3

.305

.465

.395

.860

28

118

244

50

77

21

3

13

58

24

27

8

4

.316

.586

.378

.964

29

125

460

71

147

28

0

25

90

39

30

2

4

.320

.543

.374

.917

30

152

578

124

205

30

12

32

108

98

40

4

5

.355

.614

.449

1.063

31

154

578

105

194

42

6

21

91

96

29

7

7

.336

.538

.432

.970

32

157

593

127

200

53

9

30

113

105

32

3

4

.337

.609

.437

1.046

33

153

591

120

195

41

9

35

126

103

39

1

7

.330

.607

.428

1.036

34

154

562

97

179

30

5

33

108

80

39

5

4

.319

.566

.408

.974

35

156

594

87

184

33

6

27

109

75

39

2

0

.310

.522

.386

.908

36

134

502

82

176

38

3

29

102

66

34

1

1

.351

.612

.422

1.034

37

135

472

64

159

35

2

17

62

72

26

0

0

.337

.528

.423

.950

38

115

341

37

87

13

2

14

44

60

25

0

2

.255

.428

.364

.792

39

116

331

49

91

17

1

17

63

41

34

1

1

.275

.486

.354

.841

40

123

372

46

107

22

4

15

70

52

35

0

0

.288

.489

.371

.860

41

135

433

57

143

18

1

19

82

64

46

3

0

.330

.508

.416

.924

42

124

337

34

86

10

2

12

58

35

43

2

0

.255

.404

.325

.728

 

2543

8323

1307

2564

494

80

361

1416

1133

708

51

47

.308

.517

.395

.912

 

            Want to see me splice together Chicken Stanley and Barry Bonds?  No?  OK, we’ll move on.

            Of course, you don’t have to find a 27-year-old, a 28-year-old and a 29-year old to bridge the gap; that’s just one of my rules.   You can put any season in there that fits.  For that matter, you can just make up numbers that fit the requirements you’re looking for.  It’s cheating, and J. Henry Waugh will never respect you, but you’re not going to publish it anyway, right?

 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

 

2.  Making Bob Feller Whole

 

            The reason I had to explain all that was that I wanted to say this.  Bob Feller went 24-9 in 1939, 27-11 in 1940, 25-13 in 1941 and 26-15 in 1946.   He struck out 246 to 348 batters a season, and also walked 118 to 194 every year.  The four years between, he lost to the war, except for the tag end of the 1945 season.   He had a fantastic career anyway, but I got wondering:  what would Bob Feller’s numbers look like if hadn’t lost those four years?

            I thought I would make Bob Feller whole by filling in his missing seasons with comparable seasons by other pitchers, in the same way that I spliced together Alex Cora and Stan Musial.  Only you know what?

            It can’t be done.   Feller was 23, 24, 25 and 26 in his missing seasons, but throw that out; we’ll use any seasons we can find, regardless of age.   There just aren’t any such seasons.   There is no other season, by any pitcher in baseball history, at any age, in any era, that fits in even reasonably well with Bob Feller’s 1939-1946 numbers.

            You can still do it, of course.  There are millions of ways to create mythical careers; I can certainly create records to represent the missing Bob Feller seasons.  Maybe I’ll show you how to do that next week, depending on how much people complain about my wasting time with this stuff.  

            For now, I just wanted to pause and reflect on the remarkable fact that it can’t be done this way.  How many players are so unique that no one else’s records can be used to fill in a gap in their career?   Even Sandy Koufax has “matches”—Vance in 1924, Steve Carlton in 1972.  Even Barry Bonds has matches, up to a point.   Bob Feller has none.  Nobody fits.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

 

3.  The Greatest Bench Players Ever

 

            Who are the greatest bench players of all time?   I was thinking of Alex Cora, who has been a really good player for several years off the bench, and Stan Javier, who I thought was a fine outfielder but spent most of his career coming off the bench, and Rance Mulliniks, who was a platoon third baseman who could actually contribute to the other team losing, and I got to wondering. . .who are the best bench players ever?

            Nothing official about it, but I did some research, and here’s my roster of the best bench players of all time:

 

C—Smoky Burgess

            It’s a little debatable whether he is eligible, because “regular” catchers don’t normally bat 600 times anyway.  Four hundred at bats as a catcher, you’re pretty close to being a regular.

            If eligible, I would argue that Smoky Burgess is clearly the best bench player of all time.   Burgess had only one season in his career of more than 377 at bats (442 in 1955), and, since he didn’t walk a lot, it wasn’t that his walks were keeping his at bats low.

            Smoky was a short, fat left-handed hitter who had Dustin Pedroia’s hand-eye co-ordination, that spooky ability to fling the bat head at the ball and hit line drives on pitches that any normal human being could never reach.  He hit .368 in 1954, hit .301 with 21 homers in his one season as a near-regular, hit 12 homers in just 229 at bats in 1956 and then hit 14 homers in 205 at bats in 1957.  

            In those years he was clearly a backup, backing up Ed Bailey.   Traded to Pittsburgh in ’59, he became a platoon player, and hit .297 and .294 his first two years, helping the Pirates in 1960 to their first World Championship in decades.   In 1961, now 34 years old and packing on about ten pounds every off-season, he upped the ante to .301 with 12 homers, and, in 1962, to .328 with 13.   He wasn’t that bad a catcher, either; despite the weight he had quick feet, and the data from Retrosheet suggests that he threw a lot better than I thought he did.  In 1960 he threw out 21 of 41 would-be base stealers.   

            By 1963 the speed was coming back into the game, and Smoky was old and roly-poly, but he was traded to the White Sox, and was the American League’s best pinch-hitter in ’65 and ’66.   At the time he retired he held the record for career pinch hits, since broken by several other players.

            Honorable Mention:  Oil Smith, Babe Phelps, Duke Sims, Greg Zaun and John Wockenfuss. 

 

1B—Dave Bergman

            Dave Bergman (1975-1992) was a Gold Glove quality first baseman who got a reputation, early in his career, as a non-hitter, and never did get a regular job.   But he wasn’t actually all that bad a hitter, either.  From 1982 to 1984 he had a total of 532 at bats, but he hit 17 homers, drove in 82 runs, drew 75 walks and averaged .276.   His career OPS was better than Willie Wilson, Paul Blair, Terry Pendleton or Phil Garner, and that probably understates his ability as a hitter because about half of his career at bats came when he was 35 years old or more, because it took that long for people to realize that he could actually play.

            Honorable Mention:  Mike Jorgensen, Dave Magadan, Tom McGraw, Joe Collins and Ken Phelps.

 

2B—Geronimo Pena

            Cardinals of the 1990s.

            Honorable Mention:  Derrel Thomas, but Thomas had several years as a regular.  Rich Amaral.  Rex Hudler.  Alex Cora.

 

3B—Rance Mulliniks

            After he struggled for the first half of his career as a too-slow shortstop Bobby Cox made him a platoon player, and he was an outstanding platoon third baseman for six years.   He was a consistent .300 hitter with 10-12 homers a year in 300-350 at bats, plus he was an OK third baseman and hit a ton of doubles.  Four times he hit 25 to 34 doubles in 366 or fewer at bats.  

            Honorable Mention:  Lenny Harris.  Dave Hansen.  Art Howe.

 

SS—Dick Schofield Sr.

            Couldn’t hit a lick, but had a 19-year career as a backup shortstop, 1953-1971.

Honorable Mention:  Bill Almon.

 

LF (tie)—Jerry Lynch and Wes Covington

            These two are guys that I remember vividly and have written about several times, but until I did this research I never put them together, and thus never realized that they’re basically identical players.  

            Covington:  11-year career, 1956 to 1966, all in the National League except part of 1961.

            Lynch:  13-year career, 1954 to 1966, all in the National League

            Covington:  6-1, 205 pounds, left-handed hitting, right-handed throwing left fielder.

            Lynch:  6-1, 185 pounds, left-handed hitting, right-handed throwing left fielder.

            Covington:  Really good hitter, brutal outfielder.

            Lynch:  Really good hitter, brutal outfielder.

            Covington:  1075 career games, 2,978 at bats.

            Lynch:  1184 career games, 2,879 at bats.

            Covington:  131 homers, 499 RBI, .279 average.

            Lynch:  115 homers, 470 RBI, .277 average.

            Covington:  .337 career on base percentage, .466 slugging, .803 OPS

            Lynch:  .329 career on base percentage, .463 slugging, .792 OPS

            Covington:  had monster year off the bench in 1958, helped Braves to the NL title.

            Lynch:  had monster year off the bench in 1961, helped Reds to the NL title.

            Covington:  mentioned in MVP voting in 1958, despite batting only 294 times.

            Lynch:  mentioned in MVP voting in 1961, despite batting only 181 times.

            I always suspect that a sophisticated analysis will eventually show that Lynch in 1961 deserved to rate higher in the MVP vote than he did, because his at bats had an extremely high leverage index.

            Honorable Mention:  Fatty Fothergill, Bob Cerv, John Lowenstein, Gary Roenicke, Gates Brown and Manny Mota.  

 

CF—Stan Javier.

            Outstanding percentage player.

            Honorable Mention:  Bob Dernier, Vic Davalillo, Sammy Byrd and John Cangelosi.  Also, one can make a really strong argument that Merv Rettenmund was better than Javier.    

 

RF—Jim Eisenreich.

            Hit .293 or better seven times and was the best defensive outfielder on whatever team he played on.   Illness robbed him of a Hall of Fame career.

            Oscar Gamble was a better hitter than Eisenreich, and a better hitter than a lot of guys who were regulars.     

            Honorable Mention:  John Vander Wal,  Jim Dwyer, Bernie Carbo, Denny Walling, Lee Lacy.   Sherriff Dave Harris.  

 

 

            One other note:   the greatest utility player of all time has to be Tony Phillips (1982-1999).   Phillips was the only player I ever saw who could play second base, third base, right field or left field and dominate the game defensively from every position.  He was OK at shortstop, where he played almost 300 games in his career, or in center, where he played almost 100.   In addition to that he walked 100 times in a season five times, stole 15 bases every year and hit as many as 27 homers.   He wasn’t a bench player, because he was a regular-without-a-position, but he was an amazing player.

            Well.  .Junior Gilliam.   Gilliam may have been as good as Phillips, and he also could play everywhere.  And, they say, Gil McDougald. 

 

            Here’s a best-ball splice for Jerry Lynch and Wes Covington:

 

AGE

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

Avg

OBA

SPct

OPS

23

98

284

27

68

4

5

8

36

20

43

2

.239

.290

.373

.663

24

88

282

43

80

18

6

5

28

22

33

2

.284

.331

.443

.774

25

96

328

51

93

4

8

21

65

29

44

4

.284

.339

.537

.875

26

90

294

43

97

12

1

24

74

20

35

0

.330

.380

.622

1.003

27

122

420

58

131

20

5

16

68

18

54

1

.312

.338

.498

.835

28

117

379

49

102

16

3

17

58

29

50

2

.269

.320

.462

.782

29

105

289

34

78

11

0

12

47

25

33

0

.270

.329

.433

.762

30

96

181

33

57

13

2

13

50

27

25

2

.315

.407

.624

1.031

31

119

353

46

107

24

1

17

64

26

56

1

.303

.354

.521

.876

32

129

339

37

95

18

0

13

58

38

50

0

.280

.355

.448

.803

33

114

297

35

81

14

2

16

66

26

57

0

.273

.328

.495

.823

34

73

121

7

34

1

0

5

16

8

26

0

.281

.328

.413

.741

35

64

56

5

12

1

0

1

6

4

10

0

.214

.267

.286

.552

 

1311

3623

468

1035

156

33

168

636

292

516

14

.286

.339

.486

.825

 

            Eight years of Lynch, five of Covington.

 
 

COMMENTS (6 Comments, most recent shown first)

alljoeteam
rcberlo,

Just check out the reader post section. Actually it would be best to do it with the site search function. The thread is called Service Adjustments. Check it out.
1:13 AM May 27th
 
Kev
Bill,

Billy Goodman could rank with Tony Phillips. Goodman was probably the least mentioned member of the Red Sox monster teams of the late '40's and early '50's. In his 16-yr. career he played 624 games at 2b, 406 at 1b, 330 at 3b, 111 at all 3 OF positions, and 7 at ss. From 1948 through 1954 he hit over .300 five times, .297, and .298. He won the AL batting title in 1950, hitting .354. He finshed with a .300 b. avg. and a .386 OBA. He was never on the DL.
I think Phillips is so highly regarded in part because of his Cobbish (?) intensity. Any photo of Goodman that I've ever seen showed him smiling.
12:49 PM May 26th
 
price499
On spliced careers...try splicing Garry Templeton and Ozzie Smith at the times of their trade; that is keep San Diego shortstop years together and St. Louis shortstop years together. I always thought they were similar that way:


10:33 AM May 26th
 
rcberlo
Your attempt to splice someone into Feller's war years renews my wonder about what the career totals of people like Feller, Williams, etc. would have been if they could have played during the war(s). I doubt you could find splice years for Williams either, but you could use some of each player's own years (perhaps modified somewhat) to fill the gap. I'd love to see the results.
1:08 PM May 25th
 
evanecurb
A new drinking game for us baseball stat nerds: Six degrees of Stan Musial. Start with any player and splice him into Stan Musial at age thirty in five moves or less.
11:16 AM May 25th
 
alljoeteam
How about Russell Branyan? Maybe he was just always hurt, but he's never had 400 AB in a season and he's played 1B, 3B, LF, and RF. He's got about four seasons worth of playing time in his career with 2137 AB. Dividing his career stats by four to get a "season" yields:

AB 534
R 77
H 126
2B 27
3B 2
HR 36
RBI 85
BB 75
SB 3
CS 1

That's not that bad really. Why didn't he get more playing time? Low BA?
3:33 AM May 25th
 
 
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