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14 Players

By Dave Fleming
May 25, 2009
 
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees - We have the suggestion, floated in a new book, that Alex Rodriguez tipped pitches to opposing hitters. There are two possibilities:
 
  1. Alex Rodriguez did, in fact, tip pitches to opposing hitters, or
  2. Alex Rodriguez didn’t tip pitches to opposing hitters.
 
Let’s take the first one. For A-Rod to have actually tipped pitches, we must assume the following:
 
1. That A-Rod talked to a few players on opposing teams, asking them to collude in a plan that any eight year-old would recognize as ethically compromised. This would require a near-ludicrious line of conversation.
 
2. That all of the players asked agreed to go along with A-Rod’s plan. Otherwise, we would already know about it. Someone would have come out by now to announce, “Yeah, A-Rod approached me about cheating, but I turned him down.” In fact, it is extremely likely that any player approached by A-Rod about cheating would go directly to his team and/or the media as soon as it happened.  
 
3. That A-Rod had some degree of trust with the other players, enough so that he knew they wouldn’t rat him out to the press or his team. And as far as I can tell, making friends and influencing others isn’t one of A-Rod’s great strengths.
 
4. That the catcher, pitcher, manager, second basemen, and third-basemen didn’t know about the plan, and failed to notice Alex signaling to the opposing hitter.
 
5. That the 10,000-50,000 casual observers who watched the games didn’t notice anything, either.
 
6. That the press, generally negligent in their coverage of all things A-Rod, needed six years to unearth this story.
 
7. That A-Rod is a man without any kind of ethical compass, even in regards to the game he desperately wants affection from. 
 
That’s a lot of assumptions. Too many, I think.
 
The whole thing about steroids makes sense: I can understand why A-Rod would want to use steroids. I get it. It fits his personality. But do I think he’d involve other players in a plan to cheat. I don’t. It’s too much of a stretch.
 
Breaking it down further: consider just the first one: the moment when Alex Rodriguez discussed this plan with an opposing player. Imagine you’re Alex. How the hell would you have that conversation? Over drinks at a nice restaurant? At the batting cage, out of earshot from your teammates? In the tunnel between clubhouses? Where the hell do you start to discuss something like that?
 
And how would you start the conversation? Would you casually hint about it, to see if the other player is receptive? Or try the direct approach? (“I’d like to cheat on tonight’s game. Interested?”)
 
The other scenario requires no leaps in logic. It requires us to assume only that Alex Rodriguez has the same ethical barriers that 97% of us have.
 
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – Here’s a weird tidbit: over his career, Wandy Rodriguez has been the embodiment of the center of pitchers. He’s the exact average.
 
Comparing his career to all pitchers in 2007 (the middle of Wandy’s career, and the year he pitched a career-high 182 innings):
 
In his career, Wandy has gone 42-42 with a 4.52 ERA. Per nine innings pitched, he has averaged 9.1 hits, 3.3 walks, 7.3 strikeouts, and 1.0 homeruns allowed.
 
In 2007 all pitchers went 2431-2431 with a 4.47 ERA. Per nine innings pitched, they averaged 9.3 hits, 3.3 walks, 6.7 strikeouts, and 1.0 homeruns allowed.  
 
Manny Ramirez, Dodgers – Who’s left? Ken Griffey Jr. is the big one, I suppose, him or Pujols. The last clean superstars.
 
The Dodgers must be thrilled: they save $7 million bucks in these Tough Economic Times, and they get a rested, eager-to-prove-something Manny for the autumn stretch. Meanwhile Juan Pierre gets a little playing time. Everyone wins.
 
Joe Mauer, Twins – Last year, Mauer didn’t hit his first homerun of the season until June 2nd, the 51st game he played in. He finished the year with nine homeruns in 536 at-bats, which works out to one bomb per 60 at-bats.
 
Oh, how the times have changed. Mauer hit a homerun during his first at-bat of the season, and has 10 homeruns in just 80 at-bats, a Ruthian rate of homerun hitting.
 
Such a dramatic turnaround is rare but not unprecedented. Most of you probably remember when Kirby Puckett went from four homeruns in 691 at-bats in 1985 (a ratio of 1:172) to 31 homeruns in 680 at bats in 1986 (1:22).
 
Anyway, Mauer is playing about as well as anyone in the game today, posting a .429/.516/.844 line in 21 games. What is remarkable is that might not even be Mauer’s best 21-game stretch. Between May 19th and June 13, 2006 he posted a .489/.541/.705 line.
 
So will Joe Mauer hit .400 this year?
 
It’s not out of the realm of possibility. He has two batting titles and is entering his prime. And like Brett and Gwynn, Mauer has missed part of the season, which certainly helps.
 
Not surprisingly, Mauer has shown a tendency in the past to decline as the season progresses. In 2006, when he won his first batting title, there was a noticeable drop-off when he entered the dog days of summer:
 
 
2006
April
0.319
May
0.386
June
0.452
July
0.293
August
0.276
Sept/Oct
0.337
Total
0.347
 
However, when he won his second batting title last year, Mauer’s summer decline was far less dramatic:
 
 
2006
2008
April
0.319
0.295
May
0.386
0.333
June
0.452
0.341
July
0.293
0.307
August
0.276
0.323
Sept/Oct
0.337
0.365
Total
0.347
0.328
 
This is all wildly speculative. Hitting .400 is hard to do. Doing it while playing catcher is ever tougher. I’ll say this, though: if Mauer’s over .400 come mid-August, I wouldn’t bet against him.
 
Adam Dunn, Nationals – Here’s an interesting fact: Dunn has played on exactly one All-Star team. That was in 2002, when he finished with 26 homeruns and a .249 batting average.
 
In the years since, Dunn’s put together five straight 40-homer, 100-walk seasons. He’s been weirdly consistent over that span:
 
 
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
BA
.266
.247
.234
.264
.236
HR
46
40
40
40
40
RBI
102
101
92
106
100
Runs
105
107
99
101
79
SO
195
168
194
165
164
Walks
108
114
112
101
122
OBP
.388
.387
.365
.386
.386
 
Look at just his OBP: in four of the five seasons here, it varies by just two one-thousandths of a point.
 
What’s weird is no one has taken any notice.
 
Think about it: don’t most baseball players who do the same thing over and over again tend to get rewarded? I mean, Boggs and Gwynn used to hit .330 like clockwork, and they always made the All-Star team. Same thing with Killebrew or Strawberry.
 
I’m not saying Dunn deserves to go to All-Star games. That’s not really my point. What’s weird is that he hasn’t gone to any games, despite the fact that he put up a lot of gaudy numbers for a team that never had a real ‘superstar’ presence.
 
Alright, one more comment: the players who did represent the Reds for the All-Star game, in all those years that Dunn was hitting 40 homers:
 
2008 – Edison Volquez
2007 – Ken Griffey, Jr., Francisco Cordero
2006 – Bronson Arroyo
2005 – Felipe Lopez
2004 – Sean Casey, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin, Danny Graves
 
And here’s who led the Reds in Win Shares each year:
 
2008 – Votto (though Dunn had more cumulative Win Shares than Votto).
2007 – Dunn
2006 – Arroyo (one more WS than Dunn)
2005 – Dunn
2004 – Dunn
 
I get Arroyo. I sort of get Larkin and Griffey. But Sean Casey? Danny Graves? Felipe Lopez? C’mon.
 
Rickie Weeks, Brewers – Maybe it’s just me, but I’ve always sort linked Weeks with Juan Samuel: two second basemen with tremendous talent who are a challenge to put to any kind of real use.
 
As a hitter he’s like Juan Samuel: low batting average, good power, high strikeout totals. Weeks has slightly less power than Samuel did, but he’s better at drawing walks. Like Samuel, Weeks is fast: Weeks doesn’t steal 50-70 bases like Samuel did, but he doesn’t get caught nearly as often, either. Despite their speed, neither Weeks nor Samuel were terrific fielders. 
 
So what do you do with a player like that? You can’t lead him off, because the strikeouts and the low batting average will kill you, and you can’t hit him in the 5-spot because he don’t have quite enough power. He can’t quite play second, but where else can you use the speed? Center?
 
Players like Weeks are interesting in that they force us to confront the weird preconceptions we have about the game. Gene Tenace was this kind of player, as is Jack Cust and Joe Mauer. They don’t fit any kind of mold.
 
Anyway, I’m sad that Weeks is out for the season. He’s one of my favorites.
 
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays – It’s sure shapping up to be a two-pony race for the AL Cy Young. At this writing, Halladay is 8-1, 2.52 ERA, while Greinke is a 7-1, with a mind-boggling 0.82 ERA.
 
It will be interesting to see if team standingstarts to influence the Cy Young race. As you are all probably aware, a team’s standing has a dramatic impact on how the MVP vote goes: it is very hard to win an MVP on a losing team. For the Cy Young, it’s different: right now it doesn’t matter how your team does, so long as the pitcher’s individual W-L record is strong.
 
That might start to change. Certainly, Halladay and Greinke are big reasons why their teams are doing so well right now. If the Royals fall out of contention, or if the Red Sox or Yankees slip past the Jays, the success of a pitcher’s team might start to enter the debate.
 
Jake Peavy, White Sox Padres – Last week the Padres and white Sox agreed to terms of a trade that would send Peavy to Chi-Towne in exchange for four prospects. After thinking about it for a day, Peavy used his no-trade clause to eschew the deal.
 
Made sense to me. If I was a pitcher who had to be traded, I’d want to a) go to a winner, a playoff-bound team, or b) go to a team that would make me look like a good pitcher.
 
The Padres are 21-22 right now, while the White Sox are 19-23. The White Sox might have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Padres, but they’re in a five-team battle of mediocrity in the AL Central, and they’re not great candidates to win that battle even with Peavy.
 
As far as making Peavy look like a good pitcher: there probably isn’t a worse team than the White Sox for him to go to. Chicago has an anemic offense, the second worst in the league at scoring runs. They have the worst defensive efficiency in the AL, and they play in a hitter’s park.
 
San Diego might have a useless offense (apart from the brilliant Adrian Gonzalez), but they turns balls-in-play into outs and play in a spacious stadium. If I were Peavy I’d hold out for the Dodgers or Mets to call.
 
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals – The NL East has a lot of talent on the left side of the infield. At third they’re represented by Wright, Chipper, and Zimmerman, while at short they have Reyes, HanRam, and Rollins. Not a bad bunch.
 
Zimmerman had a 30-game hit streak snapped last week, and is one of a bunch of National players who are having terrific years at the plate. Only the Phillies, Rockies, and Dodgers have scored more runs than the Nationals have this season.
 
For all that hitting, the Nationals have a 12-30 record on the season.
 
This is a little detour: do you think you could do a good job as a General Manager of an expansion baseball team? If you were given the reigns of the Iowa City Intolerables or the Missoula Mimeographs, do you think you could create a decent team?
 
From what I gather, Manny Acta is the most sabermetrically knowledgeable manager in baseball. He’s the only manager I’ve heard use terms like VORP.
 
I mention this because it occured to me: don't the Nationals seem like a team that one of us would design? Meaning no disrespect to Manny Acta and the GM in Washington, but isn't this the team that a lot of us would cobble together if given the chance?
 
Think about it: Adam Dunn is sort of an icon to those of us who recognize that a strikeout is no worse of an out than a grounder, those of us who like low-BA, high OBP hitters. Nick Johnson is an underachiever, someone who I’d be eager to take a risk on. Dukes is a basket-case, but he’s really talented. Lastings Milledge could be great. And I’ve been waiting for Zimmerman to break out for three years now.
 
Same thing holds true with the rotation: Scott Olsen has some issues, but if I’m trying to create a team I’d take a flier on him. Daniel Cabrera? Sure, he walks a batter an inning, but he has that good K-rate and he’s young. All of their pitchers are young.
 
If I were trying to create a team, I’d focus on the hitting first. That’s what I’d worry about: scoring runs. Because I think that hitting is the most important aspect of the game,  I’d do exactly what the Nats have done: go after the underappreciated hitters and give some young pitchers a chance.
 
What’s my point? Well, the Nationals make sense to me. There is a logic at play that I understand.
 
But it isn’t working. They’re a lousy team
 
Which means I probably know even less about baseball than I think I know. Which wasn’t much to begin with.
 
Justin Verlander, Tigers – Has 77 strikeouts in 56 innings this year, the best total in the major leagues right now. Just saying.
 
Nomar Garciaparra, A’s – Is Nomar a Hall-of-Fame player?
 
Among players who played at least 50% of their games at shortstops, Garciaparra has the fourth-best adjusted OPS:
 
Rank
Name
OPS+
PA
1
Honus Wagner
152
9640
2
Alex Rodriguez
147
9144
3
Arky Vaughn
136
7721
4
Nomar Garciaparra
124
5989
5
Derek Jeter
120
9221
6
Lou Boudreau
120
7023
7
Vern Stephens
119
7240
8
Joe Cronin
119
8838
9
Barry Larkin
116
9057
10
Robin Yount
115
12249
 
In his peak years, Garciaparra was one of the finest hitting shortstops ever, winning consecutive batting titles in 1999 and 2000. At his peak, there is no question Garciaparra was a HOF-level player.
 
The question is where or not he will play long enough to warrant serious consideration. Right now, he is about 3-4 years away from having the same career length as Boudreau, Vern Stephens, Joe Tinker, and Phil Rizzuto.
 
Zack Duke, Pirates – Not really a comment about Zack Duke.
 
The Pirates sort of the polar opposites of the Washington Nationals. Their offensive is anemic, ranking 12th out of the 16 National League teams in runs scored. But they have the fourth-best team ERA in the NL, and the best defensive efficiency in the league.
 
Chase Utley, Phillies – The new Craig Biggio, Chase Utley has been hit by nine pitches this year, after leading the majors in 2007 (25 HBP) and 2008 (27 HBP).
 
Utley has 97 career HBP’s, which is about a third of the way to the major league record (either Craig Biggio’s 285 or Hughie Jennings’ 287, depending on which record you prefer).
 
If we allow that 20-25 HBP per year is Utley’s established rate per season, then he’s 8-10 years from the record. Utley is thirty this year, and could very well play another ten years.
 
Utley is ahead of Biggio, who had 85 HBP. Utley is drawing close to Baylor (108), but is a mile behind Ron Hunt (177 HBP at the end of his Age-30 season). He could do it.
 
David Ortiz, Red Sox – No baseball player has ever given me more joy than David Ortiz has.
 
It has been Boston’s practice, in recent years, to not allow affection to color management decisions. The Sox were quick to move Nomar and Manny, and they didn’t offer wild extensions to Damon or Pedro. As a Red Sox fan, I have been happy that the team has been willing to make such hard decisions.
 
Ortiz is going to be an interesting test. If the bat doesn’t come back, it will be interesting to see how the Red Sox respond; how they will address the situation. I hope he comes back: baseball is richer with guys like Big Papi in it. If he doesn’t, well, I hope whatever ending comes is fitting to all that he’s given us.
 
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and any advice for how to turn around his woeful BJOL fantasy team here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.
 
 

COMMENTS (17 Comments, most recent shown first)

oldehippy
I'm a lifelong Yankee fan who cringes everytime I hear about Jeter and his terrible fielding. Point being, I love hearing negative things about Red Sox players. But I'd have to think hard whether to put Nomar on my Hall of Fame ballot. He's been primarily a shortstop during his career. He has a .313 career batting average, a .523 career slg pct with 226 career homers. Nomar has a ROY Award and 5 top 10 finishes in the MVP voting including a 2nd in 1998. If he gets another full season of playing time, he'll have both 1000 runs scored and 1000 RBI. During his eight season with the Red Sox, Nomar was hitter I almost always wanted to see least coming to the plate. Nomar is certainly not a first ballot HOFer, but in years 9, 10 or later, he'd have to be worth considering; at least in the estimation of this Yankee fan.
10:25 PM Jun 11th
 
Hisownfool
As a Nationals partial-season ticket owner for the past five years, they don't make sense to me, either. They are a lot worse than the sum of their parts would suggest. You're spot-on about Zimmerman and Dunn abd Nick Johnson is a terrific player. Their young pitchers show promise. But they are absolutely terrible defensively and they cannot put the pieces together for more than a game or two at a time. I have to blame Acta for that, at least in part.
6:28 PM Jun 10th
 
ventboys
Sean, I wonder if Nomar was actually a pretty good shortstop when he came up, but lost some range early on? He was pretty good in his rookie year (113 dp, slightly above average range, though his fpct was a bit below average. You quoted his 1996 callup numbers.

The problem is that his next three seasons as a regular shortstop were nowhere near as good. He turned less than one dp per 2 full games, his range was below league average, and his fielding percent was also below average. After an injury year his numbers were a bit better in 2002-2003, but Derek Lowe might have had something to do with that and they were still below average. He only played 95 more games at short after he was traded by the Sox, who explained the trade by saying that they couldn't live with his defense at short any more.

The numbers can be twisted in a million directions. My take is that the written record won't paint him as a plus shortstop, and his numbers (.968 fpct, not .988, and the low dp numbers and range factors) will be hard to spin in a positive direction purely from the record, after the fact.

He could sure hit, though. Was he Hall worthy? Me, I say yes, but I am the inclusive type. I want Maury Wills and Hank Sauer in the Hall, too. I don't think that his record, barring something remarkable yet to come, will get him in.
11:43 PM Jun 4th
 
ventboys
Would Tony Oliva be considered a "Nomar" guy? In a weird way I would suggest Harold Baines as well. He was a good outfielder when he was young, and although he played forever and played well, he was one dimemsional. Had he not seriously hurt his knee, I would guess that he would have been a no brainer Hall candidate.
11:03 PM Jun 4th
 
Kev
Evan,

Before he shattered his ankle, Tommy Davis was as good as it gets for a RH hitter. He was better than Frank Thomas, and as good as Manny and Pujols, but without the extra power. Before his injury he was 60 for 88 in SB, and never struck out more than 69 times. He was a solid RBI man (153 on 27 HR in 1962), and a two-time NL batting champion. Even after his career-altering injury in 1965, he played for 9 teams, retiring in 1976. Despite missing significant time because of the lingering effects of his ankle woes, he still drove in over 80 runs three times. He was a true stud, but with so familiar a name has gotten lost as the years have rolled by. Had he not been injured, a HOF career, and a good one, would certainly have honored his name on a plaque in Cooperstown.

Kev
2:55 AM Jun 2nd
 
SeanKates
http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1010103/index.htm. From May 19, 1997

The next to last line of the section on Nomar reads as: "Though he has hit well so far, Garciaparra is renowned more for his glovework. His range is among the best in baseball, and at week's end he owned the second-best fielding percentage (.988) among American League shortstops."
7:15 AM May 28th
 
SeanKates
Re: Nomar being a hitter, not a fielder.

When I go home to my parent's house to visit, I sometimes go to their basement, where they haven't changed the magazines in the bathroom for what seems like 15 years....and is actually 15 years. Sometimes this means I get the 1994 SI Swimsuit edition, but quite frequently it means a different SI from around that period. In their baseball "Out of the Box" or whatever it was called, it was rehashing Nomar's first season, and it more than once mentioned that he was originally signed and developed as a good fielding SS, and the Red Sox were simply surprised by his hitting ability. I will try to find it in SI's vault.

Still, until he got injured for good in 2004, Nomar was a good fielding SS, above average by most metrics. His full season fielding EQRs from BP are 107, 108, 103, 103, 101, and 103, with an 11 somehow thrown in for his shortened 2001. Sadly, I can't get the Dewan numbers from before 2004, but I would guess they probably say the same thing: before he was hurt (and moved off the position mostly), Nomar was above average at SS.
7:12 AM May 28th
 
ventboys
nts…..

- First of all, Dave, I love these things, as I’ve said many times before.

- Arod….. I’m on your side on this one. I don’t believe that whatever he did is uncommon, but Arod has always been singled out for things that are done by at least a good portion of the league, and in some cases by most or all of the league. He is the poster boy for being a choker in the postseason, yet he hit .320-.414-.600 in 58 plate appearances in the 2004 postseason. He was even better with the M’s, hitting over .400 and slugging over .700 in the 2000 ALCS against the Yankees. I’ll give you the 2005 and 2006 debacles, but you have to give him his successes as well. His career ALCS numbers are .315-.413- .611, close to but somewhat better than his career numbers for the regular season.

- Wandy- Interesting, Dave. I wouldn’t have imagined him as being average. I wonder what the deviation ratios are for Wandy, who has been like the little girl with the curl for most of his career; mixing Cy Young type performances with batting practice level disasters. It reminds me of this saying: If you have one foot in a bucket of icewater and the other in a campfire, statistically you are comfortable.

- Manny- His outing is, in my opinion, the most important one yet, for one main reason: He was caught NOW, not several years ago, and unlike Palmiero his test isn’t tainted by some doubt surrounding an injection. I am not a Dodger fan, so I only personally worry that the baby will be born healthy.

- Mauer- At what point does his hitting ability trump his defensive ability, and compel his team to move him to a less demanding position? I think that Mauer, who is very tall and has had injury issues, would be a good test case. He’s better than Ted Simmons, probably, but how much better? At Mauer’s age Simmons was still a decent catcher with a good throwing arm, but he lost the arm pretty quickly after that. I do believe that he can hit .400, but it’s a long shot. One factor that isn’t talked about much is that defenses are much better now than they were in 1941. BABIP, I imagine, is a good bit lower on average now. I don’t know that, though. Anyone?

- Dunn- Dunn hit WAY over .300 in the minor leagues despite being young for his leagues all the way up, which seems weird given his major league production. Hell, Jason Larue hit .365 in AA one year, so who knows? I checked Dunn for show-starter-itus, but that doesn’t hold water. His batting and onbase averages have been slightly lower pre all star break, but he has hit more homers, by a good bit, in the first half in his career so far.


- Weeks- I have never compared him to Samuel in my own mind, but the idea does hold some water. My quibble with the comparison is that Weeks is so obviously a bottom of the order hitter (possibly the perfect AL nine spot hitter), while Samuel was always sooooo tempting, and he had that monster counting stats year in 1987. Weeks is very comparable, in my mind, in another way: he was highly touted, and his established talents and his age make for some projectability yet to come. My 2003 BP has him listed as a top 5 prospect, and he was drafted second overall. How old is he, 27? I looked it up, he’s 26, 27 in September. I can hope that the pedigree eventually shows up as production, but at that age I wouldn’t be betting on it at short odds. He is intriguing, though. He seems to always score more runs than his production would lead us to expect. Being out for the year probably won’t help, but in a way it might. He might need to clear his head and get back to what made him such a terrific prospect in the first place.

- Halladay- I don’t buy your premise, but guys like Mike Wilbon do. I have always been against the tyranny of the team record over the individual performance, when it comes to individual ratings and awards. The Blue Jays, by the way, were a complete mirage, building that record up early in the season by playing the first month in the AL West. I don’t think that they are as bad as they have been lately, but they are not a true contender, in my opinion. The Rays, if they can get their pitching sorted out, have a move in them. Look out for Wade Davis, who will be up soon. He is a stud. It’s possible that Madden is smart enough to just make him their closer, but it’s more likely that he won’t. One more: Greinke’s peripherals are those of a 2.50-3.00 pitcher, not 0.84. He is coming back towards Halladay’s numbers eventually. He looks, to me, like this year’s Cliff Lee. Lee started out like this last year. Don’t assume that he won’t go 22-3, but 21-7 seems reasonable. Halladay is probably the best right hander in the game now, and in the mix for the best overall. Does this make him a legit Hall candidate?

- Peavy…. The Dodgers are the obvious best fit, but I doubt that the Pads are willing to trade him to their main rivals. Isn’t Peavy from Texas? No, Mobile, Alabama. He was a fifteenth round draft pick. Imagine that. I have 5-1 odds with 100 bucks on the bet that the Cubbies don’t make the playoffs. I am really, really hoping that Peavy doesn’t go there

- Zimmerman… I like the thinking there, Dave. We all have our own ideas about how to build a team, which would make it fun as hell to do our fantasy league as a deep roster keeper league eventually. It would be bloody as hell, and even more fun. My local league is set up in the middle, with 10 keepers and 30 man rosters. The best that we can do with current technology would be 40 man rosters and, say, 25 keepers. Rules would have to be made about guys like the Aztec pitcher, what’s his name? Strasberg? Hell, in 10 years we would be just like the NBA, looking at players in little league. Man, that would be fun…

- Verlander- The ultimate upside/downside pitcher. In our league he is borderline unplayable, because our scoring system sets average production as pretty much zero and has an inning limit, but un-droppable because of his upside. The question that I have been asking, not very gracefully, is whether a guy like Verlander should have more or less value than someone like, say, Jose Mijares. I would hope that asking that question is not akin to heresy, as I have been led to believe. I don’t want to go off on a rant about it, but is it reasonable to ask if we got it right the first time? Nobody ever does, I sure as heck didn’t when I had my first league.

- Nomar- I have been reading the thread, and I wish that I had something to add. You guys hit it on the head, I think. I really liked the comps, and I was thinking about Maris as I saw his name pop up. Playing at the same time as Jeter and Arod won’t help him, but maybe in 75 years when everyone forgets, he might be a serious candidate. I am not an advocate. He was really a hitter, not a fielder, so I don’t think that it’s fair to judge him as a shortstop. At any other position he is nowhere near Hall worthy, or even in the argument. Was he going to play second base? Hell, those guys get hurt way more than shortstops. He was hitting in a great hitter’s park, which is well known now and should be well known in 75 years when they have splits that we can only dream of now. We already have graphics on every hitter according to the count. What will they have in 2080?

- Duke- Do NOT buy into the Pirates defense, they are a horrible defensive team. Hell, Russell Branyon is hitting .300. It’s early. I do like what Kerrigan is doing with their pitchers. Since this is the Pirates, they will fire Kerrigan or, even worse, make him their manager. I love the idea that a terrible organization can get better (I live in Mariner country), but I see nothing other than stupid luck in getting Kerrigan to make me believe in the Pirates. They will screw it up, they always do. They are baseball’s Clippers. I am stunned that they are leading in defensive efficiency. I watch them. They are one of the worst defensive teams that I have ever seen. This is like finding out that Jose Silva is leading the league in ERA.

- Utley…. See Carlos Quentin. I am on the record here, guys. Quentin is going to get hit 300 times, if he has a full career. Maybe 400. He was getting hit 30 times a year in the minors, too, 69 times in well under 1000 atbats in AAA in just over 2 years. Utley is going to be a humdinger of a Hall of Fame candidate. He is obviously better than the majority of Hall second baseman, he has already established that level of production. Is he going to last long enough to make it easy? He is 30, and still under 3000 atbats. He would be the first player in history to make the Hall of Fame without being a regular before his twenty sixth birthday. My money is on him to make it. I have him in my local fantasy league, and I tried to get him in the BJOL league. I am a monstrous fan.

- Papi- Word for word I agree with you, and well said. Papi is not Nomar or Manny. He is, to the Sox, what Edgar was to the M’s. The man made history. I hope that he has a second act, and I think that he will. Boog Powell, who I have always compared him to, took three years to compensate for his lack of batspeed and have a nice comeback season. Willie McCovey also had one nice comeback season. Papi is probably done as a middle of the order hitter, which is sad. His run wasn’t as long as I hoped it would be. One more thing: Ortiz was traded in 1997, straight up, for Dave Hollins. He was 18 years old, and a Mariner. I am not crying. I have no more tears for the Mariners. Monte Hall would send Bavasi and Woody away naked, wearing a barrel. I don’t blame those guys, they are just guys that were hired and sucked at their job. I blame whoever hired them. The scary thing? The guys that hired them still run the Mariners. Ok, now I am crying……

12:56 AM May 28th
 
evanecurb
More Class of Nomar Nominees:

George Foster, Boog Powell, Roger Maris.

On second thought, we probably shouldn't include the guys like Score, Richard, and others who suffered career ending injuries, and no player should be mentioned in the same classe as Denny McLain. Not the same thing.
3:06 PM May 27th
 
evanecurb
Trailblzr: Thanks for the compliment but I actually heard a TV or radio commentator say that his bat is slow now.

Perhaps we can come up with a "Nomar Garciaparra Class of Players" These would be players who had more than two Hall of Fame caliber seasons but were mediocre in their other seasons. Not sure who to include but I'm thinking Denny McLain, Tommy Davis, Ted Kluczewski, Dean Chance, Herb Score, Darren Daulton, JR Richard, and Greg Vaughan are candidates.
3:01 PM May 27th
 
jollydodger
Nomar is nowhere near HOF-caliber. Yes, his best years were great...but he doesn't have the large number of "solid" years among the lesser seasons usually at the beginning and end of a career. He has no "good" seasons of acquiring counting stats...his career has been all or nothing.
11:26 PM May 26th
 
Trailbzr
Evan, thanks for the tip about Ortiz. It's real obvious if you look at his MLB.com hit chart. For the unfamiliar:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=120074&statType=1
If you pull up 2007 (Avg .335 Slg .621) at Fenway, you see singles in front of each outfielder, and some XBH to all fields. You pull up 2008, and there are no singles to left and hardly any doubles to right. Then in 2009 (admittedly a small sample so far) and there's almost nothing to right.
8:23 PM May 26th
 
DaveFleming
Just a quick add-on about Joe Mauer:

Mauer's BABIP is .424 this year, an unsustainable pace.

However, his line drive rate is actually pretty low: 16.7%, which is well below his career rate of 22.7%. His fly ball rate is much higher: 37.4%, which is ten points higher than his career average.
7:03 PM May 26th
 
chuck
I agree with Richie that it wouldn't be hard for ARod to give a subtle signal as to pitch or location. In your premise, it's him doing the asking, whereas my guess would be for the other guy to do the asking. I can easily imagine a pre-game conversation where he's talking with another infielder he's on friendly terms with, and the guy says how he's been in a bad stretch lately: "If the game gets out of hand, you think you can you help me out?... Great. Let me know when I can do the same for you." ARod's got nothing to gain by exposing a guy asking this; and given such a choice, how sure are you he'd decline it?
In the moments between when the pitch is signaled and the ball is pitched, where's everyone's attention? On the pitcher. The only people likely to notice a signal from ARod might be the catcher and left fielder (if ARod signaled location), and perhaps guys on the bench who were looking for it, once the catcher or LF told them their suspicions.
Anyone who asked ARod to cooperate isn't going to come forward to rat him out, because 1) if a player came out and said he'd done this with ARod, he'd be in hot water with his own teammates, especially pitchers, and 2) likely a player doing this would be doing it with guys on other teams and not want to bust up his network of friendly help.
Once ARod had done this quid pro quo with one guy, I could see the guy mentioning it to another player he'd been doing likewise with- "you going to New York next week? Talk to ARod- he can help you out." ARod wouldn't have to be the guy asking at all.

I'm not saying I believe he did it- there's no smoking gun- but I think it's not really that improbable or difficult to imagine.



12:55 PM May 26th
 
evanecurb
Dave:

Big Papi is done. His bat is very slow now. The Sox need to deal with this before the all star break. Sure, they have lots of other strong bats in the lineup, but no one can afford a DH who doesn't hit. The right thing for the team to do is talk with him honestly about what they need to do, and offer to give him a nice send-off. No reason to wait. The rest of the non-Baltimore teams in their division are too tough and the last thing the Sox can afford is to miss the playoffs by one game.
11:26 AM May 26th
 
Richie
Guessing here, but I suspect if you compare Weeks' OBP with Samuel's, you'll find a whole lotta difference. And that's the most important single stat.

As to tipping pitches. You and a bud could agree on it easily, could do so easily, could get away with it with little problem. 'Glove on knee' for fast ball, 'hand in glove' for offspeed. You don't have to do a 'chicken dance' out there to signal a pitch. Not saying ARod did, and if at all I'm sure he did it very, very, very rarely. But you're badly overstating how difficult it would be.
11:16 AM May 26th
 
SeanKates
As a man who has the "pleasure" of nightly access to Nats "baseball," I can't help but rain on your saberparade. Manny Acta is probably a very smart man, and might even be a very good manager. He knows that he's not the guy who is taking this team to the playoffs.

He also knows that there are an increasing number of front offices who will (a) have managing positions open in the future and (b) are moving to a stats-inclined focus. So he reads the right material and uses the right buzzwords.

But he's still a National League manager. He lets Cristian Guzman get the most ABs for his team (which looks great when he's hitting .390, but not so much when he's hitting anything less than .335). He routinely trots out defensive alignments that can't help but extend innings for his terrible pitching. He is incredibly fickle and hook happy with that young talented lineup, and if there's one thing you probably don't want to be with Milledge and Dukes, it's that.

He has TERRIBLE starting pitching, easily the worst in the league, and his bullpen may actually (without any hyperbole) be the worst bullpen ever constructed. Kip Wells might be the second best pitcher. Hell, he might be THE best. Still, Acta hasn't exactly distinguished himself in handling it.

The Nationals are actually hit-lucky right now, with Dunn, Zimmerman and Guzman hitting well above expectations, and probability. It's going to be an exceptionally ugly DC summer. The 8000 people who show up every game will be disappointed.

P.S. I also think it was Edinson Volquez.
10:23 AM May 26th
 
 
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