The only secret in the NBA is Rajon Rondo; that’s what I’ve decided.  I’ve been doing a little work on the NBA, trying to get answers to a few questions that I am manifestly unqualified to answer.   Is LeBron actually the best player in the league?   If so, what is his winning percentage?   Could we make Win Shares and Loss Shares for him?   Who is the best point guard in the NBA?  Is Shaq washed up?   Is Kobe overrated?  Are Double Stuff Oreos considered a health food in Bolivia?  

            To answer any of these questions would require a sophisticated understanding both of the NBA and its statistics, which I do not have.   I will suggest some answers here, but I hope everyone understands I’m just trying to work through the problems, not suggesting that I know the answers.  

            OK, how do we rate NBA players?   In the past I have rated players, particularly college players, by the formula

 

            Points Scored

            Minus Field Goals Missed

            Minus Free Throws Missed

            Plus Rebounds

            Plus 2*Assists

            Plus 2*Steals

            Plus Blocks

            Minus 2*Turnovers

            Minus .6*Fouls Committed

 

            Per 48 Minutes

                        (or per 40 minutes in college)

 

            I created a spreadsheet which has all of the relevant stats for all NBA players this year.  In working with this formula over the past few days, I have made two changes to this formula. 

First, I increased the penalty for a missed shot from 1.00 to 1.50.  There were three reasons for doing this.  

1)  When I figured the data for all NBA players this year and created an All-Star team, the first team (and second team, and third team) had far more shots taken than could reasonably be explained if they were an actual team.   This had to mean, it seemed to me, that I was in essence arguing that “taking shots is good.”

2)  Charging players a negative 1 point for a missed shot but +2 when they make a shot is, in effect, establishing a marginal value base of 33% for a two-point shot attempt.   It’s a way of saying that a player is helping his team if he can hit 34% of his shots, or 26% of his three-point attempts.   There is certainly some value in being able to get off a shot in the NBA, but the 1.50 penalty establishes the marginal base at 43% for a two-pointers and 33% for a three-pointer, which seems more reasonable.

3)  When I made this adjustment, the rankings of teams vis a vis their won-lost performance obviously improved.  I didn’t even have to figure it; it’s just obvious.  

 

The other change, reducing the value of an assist from 2 points to 1, is something that people have tried to tell me before that I needed to do.   I used 2 points for an assist based on this logic:  that the point guard, who has the responsibility to handle the ball, inevitably will turn the ball over some of the time.  If you charge him two points for a turnover and only credit him with one for an assist, it causes point guards to be valued lower than other players.

That may be true in college, I don’t know.  I thought it was true, when I ran these kind of numbers before.  It’s not true in the NBA, anyway.   When I figured the league leaders with assists valued at two, I had too many point guards and too many high-assist players rated among the league’s top players.  Although, in truth, when I reduced the value of assists I did wind up with a system which may have some tendency to favor the Bigs.  

 

So I made those changes to the formula, and I figured the best players in the NBA.  I will call these “Ponts”, as opposed to “Points”.   Points in the NBA are the points the player scores; Ponts will be the basis of the value we assign to each player in this analysis, as a result of the formula above. This is step one.  After Step One, the best players in the NBA this season would be:

 

1.	Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets point guard	30.7
2.	LeBron James, you probably know all about him	29.9
3.	Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic center	27.2
4.	Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat shooting guard/small forward	26.2
5.	Paul Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers forward/center	25.4
6.	Marcus Camby, Los Angeles Clippers forward/center	25.3
7.	Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warrions center	25.1
8.	Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics forward	25.0
9.	Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs forward	24.9
10.	David Lee, New York Knicks forward/center	24.5

 

My first observation here is that this is a list of few and small surprises.   The players on this list—LeBron, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Chris Paul—are among the biggest stars in the league, and my accounting appears to be merely endorsing, for the most part, the common opinion.   Yes, it’s a little surprising that Kobe isn’t in the top 10; yes, it’s surprising that Andris Biedrins is.   But it’s not a generally shocking or original list.

The next thing we have to adjust for is the pace of the game.   Some teams have more possessions than others.   I adjusted for this by figuring the Ponts for and against each team, and adjusting this to the league norm (which was 13.81 Ponts per 48.) 

This changes the list above to the following:

           

1	Chris Paul	32.6
2	LeBron James	31.9
3	Dwight Howard	29.5
4	Dwayne Wade	27.1
5	Kevin Garnett	27.1
6	Tim Duncan	25.7
7	Marcus Camby	24.8
8	Yao Ming	24.1
9	Pao Gasol	23.7
10	Al Jefferson	22.7

 

 

            This is an even more conventional list than the last one, with Yao Ming and Al Jefferson replacing David Lee and Andris Biedrins. 

            At this point I spent two days trying to figure a “winning percentage” for each player, based on points per possession, ponts per possession used, points per shot, etc.  I made up elaborate systems to estimate what share of the responsibility for his team’s offense that each player bears.   I figured “possessions consumed” by each player, and worked to jiggle the formula so that possessions consumed tended to balance for and against each team, as logically they must.  

            All of that was pretty much a waste of time.   You may know that the Pythagorean exponent in the NBA is 14. . .that is, an NBA team’s expected winning percentage is:

 

            Points Scored ^ 14

            --------------------------------------------------

            Points Scored ^14 + Points Allowed ^14

 

 

            I think Darryl Morey discovered this; it’s pretty well known, and it works amazingly well.   The data is stable.   These are the actual and predicted Won-Lost records for all NBA teams by this formula for 2008-2009:

 

		Predicted	Actual
1.	Cleveland Cavaliers	65-17	66-16
2.	LA Lakers	61-21	65-17
3.	Boston Celtics	61-21	62-20
4.	Orlando Magic	59-23	59-23
5.	Portland Trail Blazers	56-26	54-28
6.	Houston Rockets	53-29	53-29
7.	San Antonio Spurs	52-30	54-28
8.	Denver Nuggets	50-32	54-28
9.	Utah Jazz	48-34	48-34
10.	Dallas Mavericks	47-35	50-32
11.	New Orleans Hornets	46-36	49-33
12.	Atlanta Hawks	46-36	47-35
13.	Phoenix Suns	46-36	46-36
14.	Miami Heat	42-40	43-39
15.	Philadelphia 76ers	41-41	41-41
16.	Chicago Bulls	40-42	41-41
17.	Detroit Pistons	40-42	39-43
18.	Indiana Pacers	38-44	36-46
19.	Milwaukee Bucks	38-44	34-48
20.	Charlotte Bobcats	37-45	35-47
21.	New Jersey Nets	34-48	34-48
22.	New York Knicks	34-48	32-50
23.	Toronto Raptors	33-49	33-49
24.	Golden State Warriors	31-51	29-53
25.	Minnesota Timberwolves	27-55	24-58
26.	Memphis Grizzlies	26-56	24-58
27.	Oklahoma City Thunder	24-58	23-59
28.	Washington Wizards	21-61	19-63
29.	Sacramento Kings	19-63	17-65
30.	LA Clippers	18-64	19-63

           

 

            As you can see, there is a very close relationship between actual and predicted won-lost records, but 14 actually is not the most accurate Pythagorean exponent for the NBA this year.   The most accurate exponent this year is 15.78.

            That’s for Points.   For Ponts, on the other hand, the most accurate exponent is 3.86.   One cannot predict wins and losses in the NBA as accurately based on Ponts as on Points, of course, and this may cause some people to wonder, “Why not simply base your evaluations on actual Points Scored, since this is the most accurate way to predict wins?”

            Because Points Scored in some cases don’t accurately represent Points Created for the team.   Basing an NBA evaluation entirely on Points Scored would be like basing a baseball evaluation entirely on Runs Scored.   Sometimes the guy who scores the run is not the player who is most responsible for the run being scored.   In fact, we could compare our analysis in baseball to basketball in this way:

 

In Basketball	In Baseball
Points	Runs
Individual Points	Individual Runs Scored
Ponts	Runs Created
Wins	Wins
Possessions	Outs
Made Shots	Hits
Field Goal Attempts	At Bats
Shooting Percentage	Batting Average
Points Per Shot	On Base Percentage
Rebounds	RBI
Three-point shots	Home Runs
Missed 3-pointers	Strikeouts
Turnovers	GIDP
Free Throws Made	Walks
FGA + FTA	Plate Appearances
Blocked Shots	Fielding Percentage
Steals	Range Factor
Oreos	Twinkies

 

            We’re trying to create a basketball analysis similar to what we can do in baseball.  As we can predict wins in baseball based on hits, walks, strikeouts, etc., we should be able to predict wins in basketball based on shooting percentages, steals, etc, at least to some extent.

            Anyway, as one can predict wins in basketball by Points ^ 14, one can also predict wins by Ponts ^ 3.86.   I’m going to use 4 here (instead of 3.86), because it’s easier and it makes more sense.   The NBA average this year was 13.81 Ponts Per 48 minutes.   We can thus establish a “Winning Percentage” for each player by:

 

            (Ponts Per 48) divided by 13.81

            To the fourth power

            Divided by the same, plus one. 

 

            If a baseball player creates runs at a rate twice the league norm, this creates an offensive winning percentage of .800 (by some methods. . .there are others.)  If a basketball player scores ponts at a rate of twice the league norm, this creates a winning percentage of .938 (16 to 1.)

            Thus, we can state the winning percentages of the players listed above as follows:

 

		Points	Winning Percentage
1.	Chris Paul	32.6	.966
2.	LeBron James	31.9	.964
3.	Dwight Howard	29.5	.954
4.	Dwayne Wade	27.1	.937
5.	Kevin Garnett	27.1	.937
6.	Tim Duncan	25.7	.923
7.	Marcus Camby	24.8	.913
8.	Yao Ming	24.1	.903
9.	Pao Gasol	23.7	.896
10.	Al Jefferson	22.7	.880

 

            I must say that I am not thrilled to reach this point in my analysis.  I tried very hard to find some other way to figure a winning percentage for each player, based in part on the number of shots taken or the number of possessions used (in other words, expanding a player’s responsibility for the success of his team as he takes more shots.)   I tried figuring winning percentages based on the number of points above or below average that the player moved the team.  I learned from this that it takes about 13 points to move an NBA team one half-game away from .500 (in other words, to win 42 games, 42-40, a team needs to outscore their opponents by about 25 points.)   I looked at 50 different ways of doing that, but nothing worked.  Nothing delivered consistently reasonable results.   I concluded that I just don’t understand the data well enough to do that at this time. 

            So I wound up with a winning percentage that is, in reality, merely the Ponts Per 48, re-stated in a different form.   We can, however, predict the league’s MVP voting with reasonable accuracy by the formula:

 

            Player Winning Percentage * .6

            Plus

            Team’s Winning Percentage * .4 * Games Played/82

 

            Kevin Garnett thus ranks at .773:

 

            His Individual Winning Percentage (.937)

            Times .600 = .5622

 

            Plus Team Winning Percentage (.756)

            Times .400 = .3024

            Times 57 (Games Played) =  17.239

            Divided by 82 =  .2102

 

            Total of   .7724  (.5622 + .2102).

 

            His “MVP voting percentage” would be .7724.   These would be the top ten in the NBA:

 

1.	LeBron	.898
2.	Pao Gasol	.851
3.	Dwight Howard	.850
4.	Rajon Rondo	.821
5.	Chris Paul	.809
6.	Kobe Bryant	.807
7.	Tim Duncan	.795
8.	Joel Przybilla	.795
9.	Yao Ming	.784
10.	Kevin Garnett	.772

           

            Whereas the actual MVP voting was:

 

1.	LeBron	1172
2.	Kobe	698
3.	Dwayne Wade	680
4.	Dwight Howard	328
5.	Chris Paul	192
6.	Chauncey Billups	33
7.	Paul Pierce	21
8.	Tony Parker	9
9.	Brandon Roy	7
10.	Dirk Nowitski	3
11.	Tim Duncan	2
11.	Yao Ming	1

 

 

            Probably as close as we would come to matching the MVP voting in baseball in most seasons.    I’m not here to argue that Pao Gasol is “actually” better than Kobe or anything like that.  As I’ve said, I don’t know enough about basketball to be making those kind of arguments.   Pao rates higher in my analysis.  

            One of the key things I was looking for was “overrated stars”, or players who are stars but don’t deserve to be.   I didn’t really find them.    Shaquille O’Neal still rates among the top 30 players in the league.   Chauncey Billups, Grant Hill, Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash. . .they’re all effective players.   The only true big name player who I rate in the bottom half of the league is Allen Iverson, and I don’t imagine that’s a big surprise to most people; I think most people know that Iverson’s pretty much done.   Tracy McGrady doesn’t rate well, I guess, but McGrady’s reputation by now has taken more hits than Cheech and Chong. 

            On the other end there are more “discoveries”.   Let’s start with Rajon Rondo.

            I saw Rondo play, live at the Garden, about five times in his rookie season.  In all honesty, I didn’t think he was going to be much of a player.   He doesn’t have the size and power of Jason Kidd or Chris Paul, or the penetrate-and-take-charge aggressiveness of Nash or Iverson, nor the uncanny command of the floor of John Stockton or Jason Kidd.   He’s thin and looks a little deferential, he’s not a great shooter, and for much of that season he was backing up Sebastian Telfair, and you know, nobody looks great backing up Sebastian Telfair.  

            But when people talk about the best point guards in the NBA now they talk about Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, and even Baron Davis.  I don’t see the evidence that those guys (other than Paul) are better than Rondo.   Rondo takes good shots, hits them, takes care of the basketball and finds the open man.  He is also, despite his size, one of the best rebounding point guards in the NBA.  Although his size may be a problem in defending some players, he was fourth among the league’s point guards in steals.   

            If you compare Rondo to Deron Williams, Rondo rates ahead in field goal percentage, three point percentage, rebounds and steals.   Williams rates ahead in free throw percentage, assists, and assist-to-turnover ratio, but that’s 3.18 to one vs. 3.15 to one; Rondo’s ratio is the fifth best in the league.

            If you compare Rondo to Steve Nash, 2008-2009, Nash has 58 more assists, which is certainly nice, but Rondo has 94 more steals (149-55), 193 more rebounds (416-223), and 39 fewer turnovers.  Do you trade 94 steals and 193 rebounds for 58 assists with 39 turnovers?  I don’t think so.  

            For years, Paul Pierce was dragging the Boston Celtics into the early rounds of the NBA playoffs without a lot of help, and, as good as Pierce is, he was never quite good enough to make that work.   In 2007 the Celtics added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, which gave them three superstars and, for one season, a great team. 

            This year Garnett was hurt and Ray Allen much of the time couldn’t hit a bathtub with a bar of soap, so it was back to Paul Pierce dragging the team behind him—and yet, they won one round of playoff games and almost won the second round.   How’d that happen?

            Rajon Rondo; that’s how it happened.  The Celtics have a really good player who just hasn’t been recognized yet as a really good player, perhaps because he’s hidden behind the three amigos.   This is how I rate the NBA’s true point guards this season; I’m sure my decisions about who is a “true” point guard are sometimes wrong:

 

 

	First	Last	Team	Adjusted PP48	Winning Pct
	Chris	Paul	New Orleans Hornets	32.6	.969
	Rajon	Rondo	Boston Celtics	22.5	.876
	Jason	Kidd	Dallas Mavericks	19.8	.809
	Tony	Parker	San Antonio Spurs	19.8	.810
	Deron	Williams	Utah Jazz	19.2	.790
	Jose	Calderon	Toronto Raptors	19.5	.799
	Chauncey	Billups	Denver Nuggets	16.9	.692
	Steve	Nash	Phoenix Suns	16.9	.692
	Mike	Bibby	Atlanta Hawks	14.7	.563
	Mo	Williams	Cleveland Cavaliers	14.3	.536
	Raymond	Felton	Charlotte Bobcats	12.7	.416
	Mike	Conley	Memphis Grizzlies	14.3	.536
	Nate	Robinson	New Yorks Knicks	14.8	.569
	Jameer	Nelson	Orlando Magic	21.1	.845
	Mario	Chalmers	Miami Heat	12.9	.433
	T.J.	Ford	Indiana Pacers	13.9	.505
	Steve	Blake	Portland Trail Blazers	12.9	.431
	Kevin	Martin	Sacramento Kings	13.5	.480
	Chris	Duhon	New Yorks Knicks	10.7	.264
	Luke	Ridnour	Milwaukee Bucks	12.9	.436
	D.J.	Augustin	Charlotte Bobcats	12.5	.404
	Keyon	Dooling	New Jersey Nets	11.6	.331
	Allen	Iverson	Detroit Pistons	11.8	.349
	Baron	Davis	Los Angeles Clippers	10.5	.247
	Jamal	Crawford	Golden State Warriors	10.2	.233
	Louis	Williams	Philadelphia 76ers	10.7	.264
	Bobby	Jackson	Sacramento Kings	11.2	.301
	Jose	Barea	Dallas Mavericks	10.5	.250
	Steve	Novak	Los Angeles Clippers	11.4	.318
	Fred	Jones	Los Angeles Clippers	9.8	.206
	Anthony	Johnson	Orlando Magic	9.6	.191
	Sergio	Rodriguez	Portland Trail Blazers	10.2	.227
	Aaron	Brooks	Houston Rockets	8.1	.108
	George	Hill	San Antonio Spurs	9.3	.174
	Earl	Watson	Oklahoma City Thunder	8.0	.101
	Charlie	Bell	Milwaukee Bucks	7.7	.087
	Sebastian	Telfair	Minnesota Timberwolves	6.6	.049
	Mike	James	Washington Wizards	6.2	.040

 

            Kidd rates ahead of Parker, and Deron Williams ahead of Jose Calderon, based on minutes played.   I have to say something also about Baron Davis, who at least as recently as a year ago was sometimes listed among the top point guards in the league.  Among all NBA players playing 1,000 minutes this year, Baron Davis ranked dead last in field goal percentage, .370.   I know that you don’t judge a point guard by his shooting, but you do evaluate him by his judgment.   If you’re shooting 37% from the floor, that’s a problem, rather you’re a point guard, a cheerleader or Paul Blart, Mall Cop.  

 

1-2 Combo Guards

 

Order		First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Pct
498		Devin	Harris	New Jersey Nets	17.5	.723
84		Derrick	Rose	Chicago Bulls	13.4	.469
348		Jason	Terry	Dallas Mavericks	14.5	.552
109		Delonte	West	Cleveland Cavaliers	14.2	.528
267		Leandro	Barbosa	Phoenix Suns	15.6	.619
293		Rudy	Fernandez	Portland Trail Blazers	13.2	.459
614		Russell	Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	10.8	.271
411		C.J.	Watson	Golden State Warriors	13.0	.438
168		Derek	Fisher	Los Angeles Lakers	10.8	.273
26		Eddie	House	Boston Celtics	14.6	.553
453		Michael	Redd	Milwaukee Bucks	15.0	.583
471		Randy	Foye	Minnesota Timberwolves	9.4	.175
75		Kirk	Hinrich	Chicago Bulls	12.3	.389
45		Raja	Bell	Charlotte Bobcats	10.9	.278
96		Daniel	Gibson	Cleveland Cavaliers	7.3	.073
205		Daequan	Cook	Miami Heat	7.1	.067
167		Jordan	Farmar	Los Angeles Lakers	6.3	.041

 

            Derrick Rose, number two on this list, won the Rookie of the Year Award in an overwhelming vote, finishing first on 111 of 120 ballots.   Again, not claiming to know more about this than the people who voted, but my ranking system does not coincide with the Rookie of the Year voting.   These are the top 20 rookies in the NBA, and as I would have seen them:

 

Vote	First	Last		My Ranking	Team	First	Last
1	Derrick	Rose		1	New Jersey Nets	Brook	Lopez
2	O.J.	Mayo		2	Memphis Grizzlies	Marc	Gasol
3	Brook	Lopez		3	Minnesota Timberwolves	Kevin	Love
4	Russell	Westbrook		4	Chicago Bulls	Derrick	Rose
5	Eric	Gordon		5	Miami Heat	Mario	Chalmers
6	Kevin	Love		6	Milwaukee Bucks	Luc	Mbah a Moute
7	Michael	Beasley		7	Miami Heat	Michael	Beasley
8	Marc	Gasol		8	Sacramento Kings	Jason	Thompson
9	Robin	Lopez		9	Los Angeles Clippers	Eric	Gordon
10	Rudy	Fernandez		10	Portland Trail Blazers	Rudy	Fernandez
11	Mario	Chalmers		11	Philadelphia 76ers	Marreese	Speights
12	Courtney	Lee		12	Oklahoma City Thunder	Russell	Westbrook
13	Nicolas	Batum		13	Memphis Grizzlies	O.J.	Mayo
				14	Charlotte Bobcats	D.J.	Augustin
				15	Golden State Warriors	Anthony	Randolph
				16	Washington Wizards	JaVale	McGee
				17	Memphis Grizzlies	Darrell	Arthur
				18	Portland Trail Blazers	Nicolas	Batum
				19	Orlando Magic	Courtney	Lee
				20	Indiana Pacers	Roy	Hibbert

 

            But Lopez is a center and Gasol and Kevin Love are big guys of some kind, and our system may be too kind to Bigs.    It’s very possible that if we had some better sort of positional adjustment, Rose might actually rank first.  

 

Shooting Guards

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Kobe	Bryant	Los Angeles Lakers	20.0	.816
	Andre	Miller	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	17.9	.739
	Ray	Allen	Boston Celtics	16.2	.655
	Vince	Carter	New Jersey Nets	15.8	.630
	Joe	Johnson	Atlanta Hawks	14.4	.541
	Ronnie	Brewer	Utah Jazz	15.8	.633
	Ramon	Sessions	Milwaukee Bucks	17.6	.726
	Ben	Gordon	Chicago Bulls	12.3	.386
	Manu	Ginobili	San Antonio Spurs	22.1	.868
	J.R.	Smith	Denver Nuggets	13.7	.496
	Anthony	Parker	Toronto Raptors	11.7	.341
	Jason	Richardson	Phoenix Suns	14.2	.527
	Rodney	Stuckey	Detroit Pistons	11.9	.355
	Eric	Gordon	Los Angeles Clippers	11.3	.309
	Jarrett	Jack	Indiana Pacers	11.0	.289
	Richard	Hamilton	Detroit Pistons	12.0	.365
	O.J.	Mayo	Memphis Grizzlies	9.8	.203
	Beno	Udrih	Sacramento Kings	10.5	.252
	Anthony	Carter	Denver Nuggets	11.6	.333
	Tracy	McGrady	Houston Rockets	14.3	.534
	Roger	Mason	San Antonio Spurs	9.2	.168
	Ronald	Murray	Atlanta Hawks	10.3	.240
	Courtney	Lee	Orlando Magic	10.4	.243
	Marquis	Daniels	Indiana Pacers	10.1	.223
	Sasha	Vujacic	Los Angeles Lakers	11.5	.327
	Von	Wafer	Houston Rockets	11.0	.286
	Kyle	Weaver	Oklahoma City Thunder	10.2	.227
	Mickael	Pietrus	Orlando Magic	9.5	.182
	Willie	Green	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	7.9	.096
	Javaris	Crittenton	Washington Wizards	8.9	.150
	Brandon	Rush	Indiana Pacers	6.9	.059
	J.J.	Redick	Orlando Magic	8.0	.101
	Arron	Afflalo	Detroit Pistons	7.1	.065

 

 

Guard/Forward Combos

            Most of these guys are bench players:

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Brandon	Roy	Portland Trail Blazers	21.4	.852
	Andre	Iguodala	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	17.8	.734
	Mike	Miller	Minnesota Timberwolves	15.8	.634
	John	Salmons	Chicago Bulls	13.9	.505
	Ron	Artest	Houston Rockets	13.0	.437
	Kelenna	Azubuike	Golden State Warriors	12.3	.390
	Josh	Howard	Dallas Mavericks	12.8	.426
	Rasual	Butler	New Orleans Hornets	9.9	.212
	Francisco	Garcia	Sacramento Kings	11.5	.326
	Michael	Finley	San Antonio Spurs	10.5	.249
	Kyle	Korver	Utah Jazz	11.3	.311
	Wally	Szczerbiak	Cleveland Cavaliers	12.2	.382
	Anthony	Morrow	Golden State Warriors	11.9	.359
	Maurice	Evans	Atlanta Hawks	9.9	.212
	Joey	Graham	Toronto Raptors	10.6	.259
	Quentin	Richardson	New Yorks Knicks	9.5	.182
	Dahntay	Jones	Denver Nuggets	7.3	.074
	Bruce	Bowen	San Antonio Spurs	6.1	.037
	Aleksandar	Pavlovic	Cleveland Cavaliers	6.2	.039
	Jason	Kapono	Toronto Raptors	5.5	.025
	Antoine	Wright	Dallas Mavericks	5.6	.027
	Quinton	Ross	Memphis Grizzlies	5.7	.028

 

 

Small Forwards

 

            LeBron’s not really a “small” forward, of course, but he plays out front on offense.  He’s almost playing point guard half the time.   Here we have another discrepancy from the common rankings.  My system is not hugely impressed with Carmelo Anthony, although it does see him as an above-average NBA player:

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	LeBron	James	Cleveland Cavaliers	31.9	.966
	Dwyane	Wade	Miami Heat	27.1	.937
	Kevin	Durant	Oklahoma City Thunder	18.5	.764
	Paul	Pierce	Celtics	16.4	.665
	Rashard	Lewis	Orlando Magic	16.0	.643
	Tayshaun	Prince	Detroit Pistons	14.6	.553
	Caron	Butler	Washington Wizards	15.3	.599
	Carmelo	Anthony	Denver Nuggets	15.1	.586
	Trevor	Ariza	Los Angeles Lakers	16.1	.649
	Richard	Jefferson	Milwaukee Bucks	12.4	.392
	Jeff	Green	Oklahoma City Thunder	12.4	.396
	Al	Harrington	New Yorks Knicks	12.4	.393
	Dominic	McGuire	Washington Wizards	13.3	.462
	Shane	Battier	Houston Rockets	12.8	.422
	Wilson	Chandler	New Yorks Knicks	10.4	.244
	James	Posey	New Orleans Hornets	11.3	.306
	Ryan	Gomes	Minnesota Timberwolves	9.8	.200
	Corey	Maggette	Golden State Warriors	12.8	.425
	Matt	Barnes	Phoenix Suns	10.9	.281
	Peja	Stojakovic	New Orleans Hornets	10.6	.260
	Bobby	Simmons	New Jersey Nets	11.7	.338
	Linas	Kleiza	Denver Nuggets	11.1	.296
	Nicolas	Batum	Portland Trail Blazers	12.6	.414
	Ryan	Anderson	New Jersey Nets	12.8	.425
	Jarvis	Hayes	New Jersey Nets	10.1	.222
	C.J.	Miles	Utah Jazz	9.5	.184
	Luke	Walton	Los Angeles Lakers	10.8	.271
	Nick	Young	Washington Wizards	7.7	.088
	Rodney	Carney	Minnesota Timberwolves	8.9	.146
	Desmond	Mason	Oklahoma City Thunder	4.8	.015

 

            I rated the players, by the way, on “adjusted Ponts per 48 minutes, minus 5.0, times minutes played.”   I think Desmond Mason was the only player in the league to get a negative ranking in 1,000 minutes played.   I tried to rate everybody who played 1,000 minutes, although I may have missed somebody who was traded in mid-season and had 1,000 minutes combined, but not 1,000 with one team.

 

Swing Forwards

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Antawn	Jamison	Washington Wizards	18.5	.763
	Danny	Granger	Indiana Pacers	17.0	.698
	Thaddeus	Young	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	14.0	.515
	Marvin	Williams	Atlanta Hawks	16.1	.647
	Boris	Diaw	Charlotte Bobcats	15.0	.583
	Rudy	Gay	Memphis Grizzlies	11.7	.342
	Luol	Deng	Chicago Bulls	14.1	.521
	Yi	Jianlian	New Jersey Nets	9.4	.180
	Trenton	Hassell	New Jersey Nets	7.5	.081

 

 

Power Forwards

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Tim	Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	25.7	.923
	Chris	Bosh	Toronto Raptors	21.6	.857
	Gerald	Wallace	Charlotte Bobcats	22.1	.868
	Kevin	Garnett	Boston Celtics	27.1	.937
	David	West	New Orleans Hornets	18.0	.744
	LaMarcus	Aldridge	Portland Trail Blazers	17.7	.731
	Paul	Millsap	Utah Jazz	20.3	.824
	Lamar	Odom	Los Angeles Lakers	18.0	.742
	Josh	Smith	Atlanta Hawks	16.4	.668
	Charlie	Villanueva	Milwaukee Bucks	17.1	.702
	Grant	Hill	Phoenix Suns	14.8	.572
	Hedo	Turkoglu	Orlando Magic	13.1	.448
	Hakim	Warrick	Memphis Grizzlies	15.9	.637
	Andrei	Kirilenko	Utah Jazz	16.7	.683
	Carl	Landry	Houston Rockets	19.3	.793
	Luc	Mbah a Moute	Milwaukee Bucks	14.8	.569
	Kenyon	Martin	Denver Nuggets	14.7	.562
	Michael	Beasley	Miami Heat	14.8	.570
	Brandon	Bass	Dallas Mavericks	15.5	.612
	Carlos	Boozer	Utah Jazz	18.6	.767
	Travis	Outlaw	Portland Trail Blazers	12.2	.378
	Jason	Maxiell	Detroit Pistons	16.4	.664
	Leon	Powe	Boston Celtics	17.9	.741
	Craig	Smith	Minnesota Timberwolves	14.8	.567
	Anthony	Randolph	Golden State Warriors	16.4	.666
	Al	Thornton	Los Angeles Clippers	8.8	.144
	Reggie	Evans	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	12.6	.406
	Big Baby	Davis	Boston Celtics	10.2	.229
	Louis	Amundson	Phoenix Suns	12.0	.367
	Jared	Jeffries	New Yorks Knicks	8.3	.117

 

 

Forward/Centers

 

            And here we have another hidden star, another player who appears by our method to be highly effective although he doesn’t have a big reputation. Chris Anderson of Denver is a 6-10, tattoo-covered Scott Pollard type from a small college in Texas who doesn’t start for the Nuggets, but hits 55% of his shots from the field and is one of the league’s best shot blockers.    He was with the Nuggets years ago but wasn’t nearly so effective then.   Apparently George Karl is bringing out the best in him. 

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Pau	Gasol	Los Angeles Lakers	23.7	.896
	David	Lee	New Yorks Knicks	22.2	.869
	Troy	Murphy	Indiana Pacers	22.2	.869
	Marcus	Camby	Los Angeles Clippers	24.8	.913
	Luis	Scola	Houston Rockets	20.3	.825
	Al	Horford	Atlanta Hawks	21.0	.843
	Antonio	McDyess	Detroit Pistons	21.6	.858
	Anderson	Varejao	Cleveland Cavaliers	18.3	.754
	Kevin	Love	Minnesota Timberwolves	19.8	.808
	Joakim	Noah	Chicago Bulls	20.4	.827
	Udonis	Haslem	Miami Heat	15.8	.632
	Amar'e	Stoudemire	Phoenix Suns	18.0	.743
	Rasheed	Wallace	Detroit Pistons	16.8	.689
	Chris	Andersen	Denver Nuggets	22.2	.870
	Tyrus	Thomas	Chicago Bulls	16.3	.660
	Nick	Collison	Oklahoma City Thunder	18.1	.746
	Matt	Bonner	San Antonio Spurs	16.8	.689
	Ronny	Turiaf	Golden State Warriors	16.3	.659
	Kurt	Thomas	San Antonio Spurs	18.3	.756
	Jason	Thompson	Sacramento Kings	13.1	.447
	Zach	Randolph	Los Angeles Clippers	17.8	.736
	Ben	Wallace	Cleveland Cavaliers	17.9	.739
	Andrea	Bargnani	Toronto Raptors	11.8	.346
	Spencer	Hawes	Sacramento Kings	12.3	.386
	Marreese	Speights	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	17.3	.712
	Zaza	Pachulia	Atlanta Hawks	15.1	.590
	Stephen	Jackson	Golden State Warriors	11.4	.315
	Darius	Songaila	Washington Wizards	13.1	.451
	JaVale	McGee	Washington Wizards	15.4	.606
	Darrell	Arthur	Memphis Grizzlies	12.8	.425
	Tony	Battie	Orlando Magic	14.0	.513
	Ime	Udoka	San Antonio Spurs	9.7	.196
	Hilton	Armstrong	New Orleans Hornets	9.0	.151

 

 

True Centers

 

	First	Last	Team	Adj PP48	Winning Percentage
	Dwight	Howard	Orlando Magic	29.5	.954
	Yao	Ming	Houston Rockets	24.1	.903
	Dirk	Nowitzki	Dallas Mavericks	21.0	.843
	Emeka	Okafor	Charlotte Bobcats	22.2	.870
		Nenê	Denver Nuggets	21.3	.849
	Shaquille	O'Neal	Phoenix Suns	20.4	.827
	Brook	Lopez	New Jersey Nets	18.6	.769
	Joel	Przybilla	Portland Trail Blazers	22.2	.870
	Marc	Gasol	Memphis Grizzlies	18.2	.751
	Al	Jefferson	Minnesota Timberwolves	22.7	.880
	Andris	Biedrins	Golden State Warriors	22.2	.870
	Mehmet	Okur	Utah Jazz	17.8	.736
	Erick	Dampier	Dallas Mavericks	19.2	.790
	Kendrick	Perkins	Boston Celtics	16.4	.664
	Samuel	Dalembert	Philadelphia Seventy Sixers	17.5	.723
	Zydrunas	Ilgauskas	Cleveland Cavaliers	18.4	.761
	Andrew	Bynum	Los Angeles Lakers	20.1	.820
	Jeff	Foster	Indiana Pacers	15.2	.595
	Greg	Oden	Portland Trail Blazers	18.5	.765
	Andrew	Bogut	Milwaukee Bucks	20.4	.828
	Tyson	Chandler	New Orleans Hornets	15.2	.594
	Andray	Blatche	Washington Wizards	12.9	.436
	Darko	Milicic	Memphis Grizzlies	15.5	.616
	Rasho	Nesterovic	Indiana Pacers	13.5	.479
	Nenad	Krstic	Oklahoma City Thunder	13.5	.479
	Roy	Hibbert	Indiana Pacers	12.5	.404
	Joel	Anthony	Miami Heat	10.8	.273

 

So here’s my NBA All-Star team, entirely un-influenced by media hype, although strangely congruent with its recommendations:

 

            Point Guard                  Chris Paul

            Off Guard                     Kobe

            Small Forward              LeBron

            Power Forward            Tim Duncan

            Center                          Dwight Howard

            Bench:  Devin Harris, Brandon Roy, Antawn Jamison and Pao Gasol.  

 

If anyone knows a rational way to improve the rankings of guards versus Bigs, speak up.