DaveFleming
Sorry I haven't chimed in on the discussion: I've been on vacation in Nepal and India for the last three weeks, so I haven't had much of a chance to add anything. I'm back in the States now, and should start cranking more articles out this week.
8:31 PM Jun 29th

ventboys
My AL Central 2 cents-

First of all, Dave I agree that you pretty much nailed this one. I had to dig into the stats to find anything worth posting, and even that is of dubious worth, as bunting would say. That never stopped me before, though. Why would it now?

Detroit… Their catcher, Gerald Laird, is hitting. .217-.321-.312. That stinks, but his backups aren’t exactly hidden gems. They are a combined 3-44 with 1 double, 1 walk, and 20 strikeouts. Their pitching staff is a mix of young studs and (still young, for the most part) pitchers that could be the subject of one of those “behind the music” shows, something like “behind the rotator cuff” or something. Dontrell, Bonderman, Zumaya, Seay (remember him when he was drafted, the fight over his contract?), this team would look a lot better if they were anything close to their former potential.

There might be a bit more upside here than you say, Dave, but not much. Mags is slugging .348, Migs .525. I assume that they will do better, but there is no bench here to speak of and most of their eggs are in the basket of a trio of pitchers that carry a LOT of risk.

Twinkies… I love their talent base. They have the stars, and the good young pitching and some staff depth, but they have huge, gaping holes at several positions. This would be the perfect team for someone like, say, Bill to take a shot at. Fill in those holes and this team could compete with anyone. My first impulse was that Brendan Harris should be playing every day in the middle infield, but his defensive numbers stink across the board, and they have stunk for his entire career.

I really like that kid Mijares, but I don’t like how they are using him. He’s way underused, and it’s keeping him from holding onto his command. He is 24 now, and I predict some nice things from him down the road, when he gets a chance to pitch more often. I get why they are babying him, as he broke his arm last spring. Watch him, though. He’s got terrific stuff.

White Sox… I’ve never been able to get warm with this team, for some reason. I love Ozzie, but they don’t have anyone hitting .300 other than Podsednik, who is under .400 in ob and slg. It’s all slow pitch softball hitters, speed guys that don’t do anything else, and Alexie Ramirez who is confused about what he is supposed to be, since he isn’t slow and he can’t get on base. Alex, my man, just gain about a hundred pounds and start taking pitches. You will fit right in.

It’s a weird juxtaposition. The manager is as fiery as they come, but for the most part this is a very methodical team. Their ace is the epitome of the professional pitcher. I can respect them, but it’s hard to get into them. They are just so vanilla….

KC…. Coco Crisp is the only player on this team that has even 20 walks so far. Jacobs is the only one with 10 homers, and he has exactly 10. The only player on the entire roster with an .800 ops is Alberto Callaspo, who came into the season with 399 atbats in his career, and zero homers. They are scoring 4 runs a game in one of the best hitters’ parks in the league. Their star began the season 2-21 and then went on the DL for the rest of the first half of the season, at least. Take Greinke off of this team and they are 19-32, and I am not sure that they are even that good. 2009, at least so far, has been a disaster for the Royals.

Indians….. Cliff Lee: Lessee, 97 innings, 20 walks, 69 k’s, 5 homers allowed. What would be the expected hits allowed? I looked around, I can’t find his babip, but with 109 hits allowed it has to be pretty high. Lee’s era is now below 3 anyway. Is he for real? If you ask me, I would say that he is. How he does it, I dunno, but he does it.

That’s it, though. There is not one single other pitcher on their roster that anyone can count on. They are scoring 5 runs a game despite some injury and underperformance problems, but they just can’t pitch. It’s too bad. This is the only team in the division with a real bench.

2:31 AM Jun 15th

clayyearsley
Another good article, Dave.
I'm a Rangers homer, so view these comments with an appropriate level of skepticism...
You pointed out that Texas has an ERA close to the AL average, when last year it was a full run over the average. Your point, that they won't keep that up, seems logical. However, I disagree with it, even with a couple of their starters on the shelf. As John Dewan discussed in the Stat of the Week a while back, the Rangers are MUCH improved defensively. I believe that has as much to do with the drop in ERA as the new mental state enforced on the pitching staff by Mike Maddux and Nolan Ryan - they challenged the pitchers' toughness and have pushed them to gut it up and face more hitters. In the end, that mentality may wear on the staff, but it's helped the bullpen to this point.
Anyway, moving Michael Young to 3B, making way for Elvis Andrus at SS, and sticking with Chris Davis at 1B in spite of his meager batting average has made the infield defense solid, whereas last year it was horrible.
8:42 AM Jun 14th

evanecurb
Ventboys:

Gee whiz, give us a minute, will you? I just saw this today.

All:

When I see the Red Sox of the past three years play, I feel that I am watching one of the most solid teams of the past thirty years. While the decline of Big Papi hurts and needs to be addressed, the fact remains that Pedroia, Drew, Bay, and Youklis are all high OBP guys with good power. The rest of the lineup is above average as well.

Their starting pitching is deep, and their bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Okajima's performance in Wednesday night's game vs. New York was brilliant, and he does this consistently.

But Tampa could be the equal of Boston. So much youth, so much talent. We'll see if their careers follow a normal trajectory and if they can retain their core players long term.

The Yankees' approach is only sustainable if they are willing to release declining players before their contracts. Because talent evaluation is always imperfect, some portion of the big signings will be money wasted. What is done with those players will make or break the team that adopts the Yankees' strategy. What happens is this:

The team has three needs to fill, so goes into the free agent market and signs three top notch players to long term deals at the veteran free agent going rate. The cost of these three signings is much greater than their base salaries. There is a luxury tax cost, of course, but even that doesn't cover the entire cost.

In year two, the team realizes that one of the three veterans who were signed is not working out. So they decide to sign another high priced free agent to replace the person who is only one year into his deal. They are now double paying for that roster spot, and paying additional luxury tax.

The Yankees strategy will work, but it sure is expensive.

The O's are doing lots of good things with young players. They should continue their recent strategy of trading top players for prospects. It is working. If I were running the team, I would shop Roberts, Mora, and Huff and see what's out there. Wouldn't trade them for less than their full value in prospects, but would love to see a replay of the Tejada and Bedard deals. I personally believe that Roberts would be a great addition to the Cubs, Mets, Rays, or Angels, so worth a shot.

Gutsy calls on the Twins and A's. I follow the reasoning, especially with the Twins. The A's won't make it, though. They simply won't score enough runs and I think this could be the year that Texas finally returns to the postseason.
11:03 AM Jun 12th

sdbunting
@vent: I've run sites/blogs for a while now, and in my experience -- which may or may not be indicative -- when you write something that's solid, that's interesting and correct and dovetails with what readers believe et cetera and so forth, people are less likely to comment. Challenge a widely-held belief, make what's perceived as an error, and people are lining up to say their pieces. Do the job adequately, nobody's got boo to say.

I'm a Yanks fan who agrees with Fleming's points about the team, and who has said every year for the last five, this is the year we finish fourth. I hated the Burnett signing at the time, and I'm not happy to be proven right. Matsui looks like my great-aunt out there, but now that he's hitting at last, A-Rod and Cano have gone cold. Why didn't I post these mutterings unprompted? Because they don't really add anything *new* to the discussion, and derailing it with a complaint about the Joba/bullpen debate is something I can annoy people with on my own blog.

But if you want to talk Yanks up in this joint, let's do it.

And while I'm up: Mr. Fleming, solid article, and I liked the "mad scientist" image. Thanks for the good work.
10:32 AM Jun 12th

ventboys
Sorry, but this really bothers me. Do you guys really care more about Manny, Barry, and all of that crap than real baseball, real pennant races? This is some terrific stuff here. This is what we should be talking about, isn't it?

Pennant races, breakthrough players, hot pitchers, deep staffs, injury risks, manager blunders, post hype under the radar players like Any LaRoche, former overrated but now overrated for a week or two until God sorts it out
(Pierre), guys that we love (Aaron Hill, Wandy Rodriguez), and guys that we hate (any Yankee that I don't own in my fantasy league, Fat Elvis), and guys that we cross our fingers for (Wang, Oswalt, Carp, Joba, Dontrell)....

I am just asking. Isn't this why we love baseball? This thread should be 400 posts, not 3. This is talking baseball, not meaningless off the field crap. I love it, and I am somewhat surprised that you don't agree with me. Should be just wait for Manny's baby? Not me, I am not interested. I am tracking Buckholz in AAA, I am way too busy for the latest update on Farve. You go ahead....
3:56 AM Jun 12th

ventboys
Healthy, regarding the Yankees, is a relative term. Healthier than I expected would be the better phrase.
1:00 PM Jun 11th

azhitnik
The Yanks run differential is skewed by that 22 - 4 loss they suffered at the hands of Cleveland back in April. If that's even a 10 - 4 loss they're at +38.
12:22 PM Jun 11th