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Does the Home Run Derby Hurt Players?

By Dave Fleming

July 12, 2009

In 2005 Bobby Abreu was selected to be the starting rightfielder for the National League All-Star team. He was having a terrific season: over the first half he had18 home runs and 21 stolen bases, along with a robust .307/.428/.526 batting line.

Abreu was also asked to participate in the Home Run Derby at that year’s All-Star game, to be hosted in the new Comerica Park, in Detroit. Abreu, who had never before participated in an All-Star Home Run Derby, put on a tremendous show. In the first round alone, the Philly outfielder hit 24 home runs, a new record (since eclipsed by Josh Hamilton last year). In the subsequent rounds, Abreu added 17 more bombs, for a record forty-one Derby homers.

It was a remarkable performance which, coupled with his eighteen homers in the season’s first half, suggested that Abreu was going to join the ranks of the very best power hitters in the game.

He did not join those ranks. Over the second half of the season Abreu hit just six more homers, giving him a total of just twenty-four home runs on the season. In fact, everything dropped during the second half: Abreu’s batting line went from .307/.428/.526 to a more pedestrian .260/.376/.411. Even his steals went from 21 to 10.

So what happened?

At the time, more than a few sportswriters linked his performance at the All-Star break to his second-half decline. It makes an intuitive kind of sense: if you’re struck by lightning and then discover that you can play the piano like a maestro, you’d tend to think one caused the other.

As to why participating in the Home Run Derby would hurt Abreu’s performance, two possibilities were suggested. The more charitable ‘why’ suggests that Abreu altered his swing to try to win the Derby, and then found himself out of whack when the season started back up. The less charitable ‘why’ hinted that Abreu was a victim of his own success: in hitting so many homers during the Derby, Abreu came to believe that he was a home run hitter, and tried to adjust his approach to reflect that new belief.

Derby Trends

I’m not interested in whether or not Bobby Abreu became a changed man during the 2005 Derby. What I am interested in is whether there are any trends for players who participate in the event. Do hitters tend to go into a tailspin, as Abreu famously did in 2005?

To start with, I wanted to include only those players who were actual ‘participants’ in the Derby. As you probably know, many of the participants end up hitting one or two home runs, which means they swing a bat eleven or twelve times. To me, that isn’t enough swings to explain a second-half swoon or spike.

So I’ve included only players who hit twelve or more Derby homers, which requires at least thirty-two swings during the event. I’ve also limited the pool to participants in this decade. That gives us thirty seasons to look at:

Name	Year	Derby HR's	Name	Year	Derby HR's
Abreu	2005	41	Rios	2007	19
J. Hamilton	2008	35	Sosa	2002	18
Tejada	2004	27	Guerrero	2007	17
Pujols	2003	26	L. Gonzalez	2001	16
Sosa	2000	26	M. Cabrera	2006	15
Giambi	2002	24	Lee	2005	15
Giambi	2003	23	Berkman	2008	14
R. Howard	2006	23	Braun	2008	14
G. Anderson	2003	22	Palmeiro	2004	14
Wright	2006	22	Holliday	2007	13
Morneau	2008	22	Pujols	2007	13
Berkman	2004	21	Ortiz	2006	13
I. Rodriguez	2005	20	Sosa	2001	13
Ortiz	2005	20	Konerko	2002	12
Giambi	2001	20	Everett	2000	12

Swooners, Spikers, and Stay-Neutrals

I looked at the pre- and post-All-Star break totals for each player. Then I sorted the players into three categories. The Swooners are players who saw their OPS drop by 100 or more points after participating in the All-Star Home Run derby. The Spikers are those players who saw their performance improve by 100 or more points. The Stay-Neutrals are those players whose OPS totals didn’t one hundred points either way.

We’ll start with the Stay-Neutrals:

	Pre-AS			Post-AS
Name	BA	HR	OPS	BA	HR	OPS	OPS Diff.
Morneau, '08	.323	14	.903	.267	9	.831	-72
Giambi, '03	.267	26	.966	.226	15	.898	-68
Hamilton, '08	.310	21	.919	.296	11	.874	-45
Rios, '07	.294	17	.870	.300	7	.831	-39
Pujols, '03	.368	27	1.121	.348	16	1.084	-37
Guerrero, '07	.325	14	.962	.323	13	.935	-27
Cabrera, '06	.334	15	.998	.343	11	.998	0
Giambi, '02	.318	22	1.032	.309	19	1.035	3
Berkman '04	.299	16	1.008	.335	14	1.024	16
Braun, '08	.286	23	.873	.282	14	.911	38
Ortiz, '05	.314	21	.982	.282	26	1.024	42
Palmeiro, 04	.247	13	.771	.271	10	.825	54
Tejada, '04	.311	15	.863	.311	19	.929	66

Thirteen of the thirty players fall into the Stay-Neutral camp. Incredibly, exactly six of the Stay-Neutrals saw a slight uptick in OPS, while six saw a slight drop. Miguel Cabrera had the exact same OPS during both halves of his 2006 campaign.

Interestingly, while the OPS of these players did not change markedly, eleven of the thirteen players listed here had fewer home runs during the second half. In total, the Stay-Neutrals had 244 first-half homers, but only 184 during the second-half.

Part of that stems from the fact that the All-Star game doesn’t take place at the exact midpoint in the season, but a few games after the midpoint. Still: there is a 25% decrease in homeruns during the second half, for the Stay-Neutrals.

How about the Spikers? How do they look?

	Pre-AS			Post-AS
Name	BA	HR	OPS	BA	HR	OPS	OPS Diff.
Howard ' 06	.278	28	.923	.355	30	1.259	336
Sosa, '00	.305	23	.962	.338	27	1.138	176
Pujols, '07	.310	16	.927	.349	16	1.081	154
Ortiz, '06	.278	31	.996	.299	23	1.121	125
Giambi, '01	.322	19	1.082	.367	19	1.202	120
Holliday, '07	.341	15	.964	.338	21	1.073	109
Sosa, '01	.312	29	1.125	.344	35	1.225	100

Seven players. Or, six players, with Sosa showing up twice. Boy, that Sosa was some hitter: in the two years that qualify as spike years, his pre-All-Star OPS, the total he improved upon by at least 100 points, was .962 and 1.125.

Ryan Howard, in 2006, showed the most dramatic swing of any player who participated (for more than thirty swings) in the All-Star Home Run Derby. His OPS improved by a stunning 336 points.

Of the seven Spikers, four improved their home run totals after playing in the Derby. As a group, they improved by ten homers during the second-half, 161 to 171.

Onto the Swooners:

	Pre-AS			Post-AS
Name	BA	HR	OPS	BA	HR	OPS	OPS Diff.
Berkman, '08	.347	22	1.069	.259	7	.821	-248
Everett, '00	.329	24	1.050	.261	10	.831	-219
Konerko, '02	.328	20	.949	.270	7	.734	-215
I. Rodrgz, '05	.369	12	.975	.284	7	.774	-201
Abreu, '05	.307	18	.955	.260	6	.787	-168
L. Gonzlz, '01	.355	35	1.189	.290	22	1.032	-157
Sosa, '02	.307	28	1.059	.264	21	.911	-148
G. Andrsn, '03	.316	22	.943	.313	7	.807	-136
Wright, '06	.316	20	.961	.305	6	.844	-117
Lee, '05	.268	22	.864	.262	10	.747	-117

Ten of the thirty players involved suffered a second-half swoon. Interestingly, Abreu’s 2005 collapse wasn’t close to being the worst. That honor goes to Lance Berkman, who lost nearly two-hundred and fifty points in OPS during the second half of last season.

These guys lost a lot of home runs over the second-half of the season, going from 223 during the first half to 103 over the second half. Let’s table those numbers:

	Pre-AS Homers	Post-AS Homers
Spikers	161	171
Swooners	223	103
Stay-Neutrals	244	184
Totals	628	458

Even taking into account the greater number of games played in the season’s first-half, it’s clear that Derby participants, as a whole, tend to hit fewer home runs during the second half of the season.

Spikers and Swooners

Let’s ignore the Stay-Neutrals, and look at just the Spikers and Swooners. A side-by-side list:

Swooners	Spikers
Lance Berkman	Ryan Howard
David Wright	Sammy Sosa
Bobby Abreu	Albert Pujols
Carl Everett	David Ortiz
Paul Konerko	Jason Giambi
Ivan Rodriguez	Matt Holliday
Luis Gonzalez
Garrett Anderson
Carlos Lee

(I should note that Sammy Sosa actually appears on both lists: he’s a Spiker twice and a Swooner once. For that I gave him to the Spikers.)

What do you notice about the two groups? Look at them for a minute. What jumps out at you?

Exactly: the Spikers are comprised almost entirely of slow 1B/DH/Corner OF types. They are your traditional sluggers: the big boppers of the league. The only Spiker with any kind of speed is Matt Holliday. The only great defensive player is Pujols, a first baseman.

Meanwhile, the Swooners, as a group, have much broader skill sets. You have a catcher, a third baseman, and three centerfielders. You have six players who can run fast.

And to be frank, some of the Swooners don’t belong here. What the heck was Ivan Rodriguez doing in a Homerun Derby? Or Abreu? Or Everett? Or Garrett Anderson? Even David Wright is suspect: he’s a fine hitter, but he’s no masher.

But all of the Spikers belong: all of them are big home run hitters.

Some (Thinly Drawn) Conclusions

Take two players from this year’s All-Star game. Let’s go with two of my favorite players: Joe Mauer and Carlos Pena.

The belief that the Home Run Derby negatively effect players stems from the notion that a player’s ordinary routine is disrupted. A player participating in the Derby changes his approach, tries to swing for the fences, and suffers as a result.

Between Carlos Pena and Joe Mauer, which player is more out of his element in a Home Run Derby? Which player’s approach is changed more dramatically by participating in the event?

Joe Mauer, of course. Mauer is far more out of his element. Carlos Pena, who is a terrific hitter, probably treats most rounds of batting practice as a home run hitting contests. That isn’t a criticism of Pena: it’s just an statement about the kind of hitter he is.

Before writing this essay, I thought I'd find little evidence that the Home Run Derby affected players, negatively or positively. Just my hunch, but I figured most of the worry about the Derby was a bunch of hogwash.

I’m still not convinced of anything. But I think it’s very revealing that the players who tend to swoon after participating in the Home Run Derby are the guys who probably don’t belong in the Derby to begin with. Meanwhile, the guys who have terrific seasons after the Derby are guys who make a living jacking baseballs to the stratosphere: those sluggardly sluggers.

Intuitively that makes a whole lot of sense. A player like Ryan Howard or Carlos Pena isn’t doing anything markedly different in participating in the Derby. But guys like Mauer and Ivan Rodriguez and David Wright: they are doing something out of their routine. And in recent years those kinds of players have often suffered for it.

We have eight players in the Derby this year. I think it’s safe to say that Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, and Adrian Gonzalez will do just fine.

But I’d worry about Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Brandon Inge. None of those three players are traditional sluggers. All three of them are having uncharacteristic years, seasons that seem out of line with their normal levels. In participating in the Derby, they could very well be risking their seasons for a silly exhibition.

I wouldn’t.

(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and plans that outline ways to make sure Joe Mauer can’t participate in the Homerun Derby here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com).

COMMENTS (11 Comments, most recent shown first)

jollydodger
I think maybe the HR derby has a small effect, and added with players being less explosive as the year goes on AND these players playing over their heads for the first half of the season, you get the disparity. As in all things, I doubt it's one culprit, but several combined.
5:44 PM Jul 18th

josheehan
Dave, I'd be a bit more hesitant to toss Cruz out of the slugger category. I think he could be a decent candidate for a slugger, or at least be considered a 'tweener. The man is 6'3" and 230 lbs for starters. I think he will hit 40 HR this year. He's a late-bloomer, and only two years ago, at age 26/27 did he play more than half a season. Last year he only played 31 games, with 7 homers. Of course it's always dangerous to extrapolate small sample sizes, but I figure about 37 homers if he played a full season. That's not too far off from what he figures for this year. Do I think this is repeatable? Probably not for more than another year. His 13 SB on the year aren't too shabby, either. His low hitting average is most telling about his future, which again, I think will taper pretty fast. But I don't think that the Home Run Derby will be any reason for that. In any event, he's a bit of an anomaly.
5:02 PM Jul 17th

Ron
Nice Work!
5:41 PM Jul 14th

Richie
Oh, and thanks for the article. Another good one!
12:01 PM Jul 13th

Richie
I believe Scott has nailed it, and Vent has touched on where the proof of that would lie. The pertinent control group would be 'over their homer head' guys that didn't take part in the Derby. You might have to go to pre-Derby days to get enough instances.

I'd wager my subscription (yes, I'm a high roller) you find dropoffs near-identical to what you have in this study.
12:00 PM Jul 13th

DaveFleming
Also: sorry for the ugly tables...I always forget that I have to go in and change batting averages from Excel's 0.32 to the more familiar .320. They should be fixed now.
11:20 AM Jul 13th

DaveFleming
In general, most player's home run rates and OPS totals stay the same throughout the season.

In 2008, major league hitters homered once every 34.9 at-bats during the first half, and once every 33.2 at-bats during the second half. Their OPS numbers were roughly the same; there was a slight uptick (from .740 to .762) in OPS during the second half.

As for the first-half/second-half differences: the second half of the baseball season is typically about 15% shorter than the first half. The Red Sox played 88 games prior to this year's All-Star break; they'll play 74 after the break.

Taking that into account, one would expect a group of thirty players who hit 628 homers in the first half to hit about 534 homers during the second half. This group hit just 458, almost half-again the difference.

(And it's worth noting that none of the 30 players listed missed any significant time during the second half of their seasons.)

Scott makes the most convincing argument against the theory that that Derby hurts players: Brandon Inge, who is playing way over his head (twenty-one homers, counting his two yesterday), is likely to swoon with or without the Derby. That's a terrific point.

Like I said, I'm still not convinced of anything. I was surprised, though, that the small sample size I looked at had such a strong correlation to the logic of the arguement.
11:11 AM Jul 13th

ScottSegrin
I think an important point here is that there is a selection bias in who is chosen to *participate* in the Home Run Derby. Because of that, as a group the participants are probably coming into the event having outperformed their norms in the first half and are therefore, as a group, likely to decline in the second half.

Brandon Inge is not going to hit 19 home runs (his current total) in the second half of this year. He will show up in the study as a swooner. And it's only because his first half was so far above his norm - not because participating in the Derby did anything to his style of play.
9:33 AM Jul 13th

mikeclaw
Here's my question, Dave: In general, do most players hit fewer home runs in the second half than the first half? You conclude that players who participate in the derby hit fewer home runs in the second half, but is it also true of players who DON'T participate in the home run derby? I don't know the answer to this, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a general trend for all players. Certainly you see a lot of players who are "on pace" to do things at midseason who come up short, and I wouldn't be surprised if the long season and the hot summer weather causes hitters to hit fewer home runs in July/Aug/Sept than they do in Apr/May/June. If that is the case - if there are, say 5% fewer home runs hit in the second half than in the first half, this would make it less significant that players who participate in Home Run Derby hit fewer home runs in the second half.
8:21 AM Jul 13th

ventboys
10 of your 30 lost 100 or more ops points. To understand this, you should have a control group of allstars in general. It might be normal for mid season allstars to lose 100 points or more at this pace. The morass of mid level allstars are guys playing somewhat over their heads, right? It would stand to reason that they would regress some.
3:17 AM Jul 13th

ventboys
I am with you in most of it. I think that the derby is set up horribly. The guys hat succeed early are punished for doing well, and the better they do the worse it is for them. A guy hits a ton of first round homers is worn out by the 37th round (ok, it's 3, but it seems like that).

Why don't they have them bat in an order, one atbat at a time? Baseball is not cricket. It's one atbat at a time. This might not be right, but why not think about it?
3:10 AM Jul 13th

Does the Home Run Derby Hurt Players?

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