On September 4th, 1995, a sunny Monday afternoon in the Bronx, the latest incarnation of the Yankee dynasty arrived.
In the top of the 9th inning, with the Bronx Bombers beating Seattle 13-3, two defensive changes were made. Twenty-one year-old Derek Jeter, called up from Columbus when the rosters expanded, came in to replace Tony Fernandez. And Jorge Posada, making his first appearance in a major league game, took over catching duties from Jim Leyritz, settling in to take throws from Joe Ausiano. Neither player had a chance to bat, and for Posada the quick inning was the only playing time he’d see in 1995.
The next night, with the Yankees playing the Orioles at Camden Yards, a young Panamanian recently demoted to the bullpen after a series of disappointing starts came in to relieve starter Sterling Hitchcock. With the score 4-1 in favor of the Orioles, the right-hander walked Cal Ripken to load the bases, before giving up a grand slam to Bobby Bonilla.
Auspicious starts, perhaps, but fourteen seasons later, the three men remain in pinstripes, integral members of a team that has gone 1317-877. Together, they have been to fourteen postseasons, played in six World Series, and won four Championships. Two of the men, Rivera and Jeter, are certain Hall-of-Famers, while Posada has built an excellent case for enshrinement.
So: barroom debate time. Which players has been the most important player to the Yankees? Who has been the key to the Yankees success? Who is the MVP of the dynasty?
The Arguments For And Against
Before I get to the numbers, a few quick arguments for the three players, should you ever find yourself in a bar full of Yankee fans, and want to start trouble:
Derek Jeter
Arguments for Jeter: #2 is the most ‘Yankee’, meaning he fits nicely with the line of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, and Mantle. He has calm eyes and a preternatural ability to elevate his game when it counts. He has played more games than the other two, and plays the most important defensive position on the field. He is the team captain and the face (and possible scent) of the franchise. He will be the first Yankee to reach 3000 hits.
Arguments against Jeter: There is little empirical evidence to suggest that Jeter is any different a player in clutch situations than he is in more pedestrian times. He’s a shortstop, sure, but it would help if he wasn’t the worst defensive shortstop of all-time. Plus: Mr. November? That’s the third variation of a Yankee nickname. Shouldn’t he have something more original?
Who argues for Jeter in a bar room debate? Anyone from New York, New Jersey, or western Connecticut. People who love the grace of a wild spin-throw from deep shortstop. Joe Buck. Jeremy Giambi.
Who argues against Jeter in a bar room debate? Anyone who typically drops their ‘r’s when talking. Bill James. Alex Rodriguez.
Mariano Rivera
Arguments for Rivera: The greatest relief pitcher of all-time. The greatest postseason pitcher of all-time (117 IP, 0.76 ERA). Pitch-for-pitch, perhaps the greatest pitcher of all-time. Almost certainly the greatest Yankee pitcher of all-time. The rock-steady force closing things down at the end of the game.
Arguments against Rivera: Doesn’t possess that same sense of ‘leader-ness’ that Jeter has in spades. The blown save in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. And he’s a closer: it is probably easier to find a replacement closer than it is to find a shortstop or catcher.
Who argues for Rivera in a bar room debate? Outside the box thinkers. People who believe that protecting a three-run lead in the 9th inning is ‘saving’ a game. Bostonians who begrudgingly respect Rivera. People who just want to piss off Jeter fans.
Who argues against Rivera in a bar room debate? George King, the sportswriter who left Pedro Martinez off his 1999 MVP ballot. Because only everyday players should be considered.
Jorge Posada
Arguments for Posada: Part of a long line of great Yankee catchers: just about every time the Yankees have a dynasty, they have a great catcher calling the games. In the team’s history they have Dickey, Berra, Elston Howard, Thurman Munson, and Posada. You wanna win games; it sure helps to have a catcher.
Arguments against Posada: Well, you don’t hear it often. He’s flying under the radar, which is tough to do if you play for the Yankees. If he was the most important player on the 1996-2009 Yankees, how come no one has made that argument? I think he’s a Hall-of-Famer, but he’s not the lock that Jeter and Rivera are.
Who argues for Posada in a bar room debate? People who grew up during the 1950’s, when people actually valued catchers enough to give them MVP awards. People who think really outside the box. My grandfather.
Who argues against Posada in a bar room debate? Philistines. Heathens. Most everyone, actually. C’mon: Posada? Over Jeter? Over Mariano? You’re crazy.
Alright, enough messing around. Let’s look at some advanced metrics. Who is more valuable? Which player has been the key cog to the Yankee machine?
Win Shares
I compared the three players using three metrics. The first is Win Shares, created by Bill James. For anyone new to this site, Win Shares measure offensive and defensive/pitching contributions. A Win Share represents a third of a win: that is, a team that wins 100 games has 300 Win Shares divided among its players. A season of 30 or more Win Shares is, generally, an MVP-type season. A player who contributes 0 Win Shares has done nothing to help their team.
|
|
Jeter
|
Posada
|
Rivera
|
|
1995
|
1
|
--
|
2
|
|
1996
|
18
|
0
|
18
|
|
1997
|
19
|
6
|
15
|
|
1998
|
27
|
15
|
14
|
|
1999
|
35
|
10
|
17
|
|
2000
|
23
|
29
|
16
|
|
2001
|
28
|
23
|
19
|
|
2002
|
24
|
22
|
9
|
|
2003
|
19
|
28
|
17
|
|
2004
|
26
|
21
|
18
|
|
2005
|
26
|
19
|
19
|
|
2006
|
32
|
24
|
16
|
|
2007
|
24.2
|
24.5
|
12
|
|
2008
|
18
|
5
|
20
|
|
2009
|
15
|
9
|
8
|
|
Total
|
335.2
|
235.5
|
220
|
|
MVP's
|
9.5
|
3
|
1.5
|
As much as this will probably hurt him to hear this, Jeter comes out ahead by Bill’s metric, winning nine of the fourteen possible seasons (Note: I didn’t count 1995 as a season, as none of the players had significant playing time during that season). Posada has three years where he was the most valuable of the three (including 2007, where he edges Jeter by a razor-thin margin). Rivera has just one season when he eclipsed his teammates, plus another year where he and Jeter tied with 18 Win Shares (I don’t have the full count for their 1996 Win Shares).
By this metric, Jeter comes out well ahead of Posada and Rivera: over their careers, Jeter has totaled 100 more Win Shares than his Yankee teammates.
Win Probability Added (WPA)
A stat developed by Tom Tango and available on the baseballfangraphs site, WPA measures how much a player’s actions have contributed to (or decreased) the possibility of their team winning the game. Of note: a WPA of 0 means the player has contributed an average amount to their team’s success. This stat gives more weight to situational factors: hitting a homerun in the bottom of the 9th has more value than hitting a homerun in the top of the first.
|
|
Jeter
|
Posada
|
Rivera
|
|
1995
|
-0.14
|
--
|
-0.86
|
|
1996
|
-0.29
|
-0.23
|
5.26
|
|
1997
|
1.83
|
-0.11
|
1.99
|
|
1998
|
4.33
|
0.16
|
4.65
|
|
1999
|
6.86
|
-0.91
|
3.38
|
|
2000
|
2.25
|
2.88
|
2.53
|
|
2001
|
2.19
|
2.17
|
3.23
|
|
2002
|
1.24
|
1.02
|
1.41
|
|
2003
|
1.39
|
3.02
|
3.66
|
|
2004
|
1.98
|
1.70
|
5.22
|
|
2005
|
1.41
|
-1.77
|
3.85
|
|
2006
|
5.92
|
2.15
|
3.45
|
|
2007
|
1.91
|
2.36
|
2.64
|
|
2008
|
-0.03
|
-0.19
|
4.47
|
|
2009
|
1.00
|
1.26
|
2.33
|
|
Total
|
31.87
|
13.50
|
47.19
|
|
MVP's
|
2
|
1
|
11
|
Here we have a complete reversal, with Mariano Rivera winning eleven of the fourteen seasons. Jeter wins two seasons, while Posada wins just one season, 2000.
This isn’t surprising: Mariano Rivera, by virtue of being a closer, is almost certain to make an appearance in high-leverage situations. For Posada and Jeter, it is far less likely that their turn in the batting order will come up when the game is on the line.
When trying to decide between Jeter, Rivera, and Posada, should we take into account the situation? Or does that bias things unfairly towards Rivera, to the determent of Jeter and Posada?
Wins Above Replacement Player 3
WARP-3 is a metric invented by the good folks at baseballprospectus, as the name suggests WARP-3 measures the number of wins a player contributes over a scrub replacement player. WARP-3 is adjusted to add contextual elements, like the quality of the league, into the measurements.
|
|
Jeter
|
Posada
|
Rivera
|
|
1995
|
-0.3
|
--
|
0.3
|
|
1996
|
3.0
|
-0.3
|
6.0
|
|
1997
|
3.0
|
1.7
|
7.4
|
|
1998
|
9.9
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
|
1999
|
9.0
|
1.9
|
8.1
|
|
2000
|
5.6
|
8.4
|
6.9
|
|
2001
|
4.9
|
4.6
|
7.7
|
|
2002
|
3.5
|
6.5
|
3.7
|
|
2003
|
2.0
|
7.8
|
7.1
|
|
2004
|
5.4
|
6.5
|
8.5
|
|
2005
|
8.8
|
5.1
|
9.2
|
|
2006
|
8.9
|
7.9
|
8.1
|
|
2007
|
6.1
|
8.5
|
4.5
|
|
2008
|
4.7
|
0.7
|
10.4
|
|
2009
|
6.0
|
3.8
|
5.4
|
|
Total
|
80.5
|
68.3
|
98.3
|
|
MVP's
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
This is more like it: WARP-3 gives us a thoroughly unsatisfying split: 6 MVP’s for Mariano, with four each for Posada and Jeter. In terms of their careers, Rivera comes out 18 wins ahead of Jeter, while Jeter is a dozen wins ahead of Posada.
So Who You Gonna Take?
It’s interesting that there is such a stark difference between the Win Share totals, which give a sizeable lead to Jeter, and the WPA and WARP-3 totals, which both give Rivera an edge.
My gut-response was that I’d take Posada over both Jeter and Rivera, and I don’t think my opinion has changed any. Mariano Rivera is a truly great pitcher, but used strictly as a closer, I don’t know if I believe that his value is drastically higher than Jeter’s or Posada’s. As for the Captain: according to John Dewan’s excellent research, Jeter’s defense has costs the Yankees between 12-26 runs a year since 2004 (and those are the years where his defense has improved). To be frank: I’m not sure how many games it has cost the Yankees to let Derek Jeter play shortstop. And I don’t much care for unknowns.
The most important cog in the Yankee machine? I’ll take the guy with the mask.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, Iowa. He welcomes comments, questions, and video montages of Derek Jeter making throws from deep short played to the song “Superman (It’s Not Easy)”, both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.