Roy Halladay doesn’t remember sleeper cars, flannel uniforms or scheduled doubleheaders. But he sure pitches like he does. - Sean McAdams, Providence Journal, April 30, 2008
I don’t know if this is true, but I suspect that the ‘throwback’ moniker, once it’s stuck, can do some damage to a pitcher. It can start to creep into a pitcher’s thinking, to the point where instead of worrying about the next hitter, he starts thinking about how to get into the ninth. – Me, BJOL website, March 26th, 2009
I wrote that a few months ago, just speck’latin. I read it again recently and I thought that I should go back and check it out. How do the guys who complete a lot of games do in subsequent seasons? Is there any evidence to suggest that going the distance becomes a problem for pitchers? And what about that label: does the throwback label hurt pitchers?
Defining the Throwbacks
First, let’s define the term: by ‘throwback’ we’re talking about pitchers who complete games, like pitchers did in the good old days, before all this hullabaloo about pitch counts and rotator cuffs and steroids. Roy Halladay is the most prominent completer of games in baseball today.
(Okay…quick diversion: from 2006-2008, who completed more games, Halladay or Sabathia?
|
|
Sabathia
|
Halladay
|
|
2006
|
6
|
4
|
|
2007
|
4
|
7
|
|
2008
|
10
|
9
|
|
Total
|
20
|
20
|
It’s dead even. What’s more, the CC Music Factory beat Halladay in two out of three seasons. So how come Halladay gets the ‘throwback’ label? Anyone care to speculate?)
How does one acquire a label like ‘throwback’? For one thing, a player needs to complete a lot of games. For another thing, the baseball writers and fans have to notice. It helps if you lead the league in complete games. It really helps if you can lead the league in complete games in back-to-back seasons. If you do that, you’re a throwback.
Let’s go back to 1990: I think that’s a reasonable benchmark for when sportswriters started to bemoan the death of the complete game. Through the 1980’s, you still had a lot of pitchers notching ten to twenty games in a year. In the 1990’s, that dropped.
Okay….that’s lazy. In the decade of the 1980’s there were 154 seasons where a pitcher notched 10+ complete games, which you can figure out the average of. In the 1990’s there were only 27 seasons of 10+ complete games.
So we have a decent start point: the 1990’s were, generally speaking, the time when pitching a complete game became a rarity. In the eighteen seasons between 1990-2008, nine pitchers have led the league in complete games in consecutive seasons.
(By the way: that’s not rare, having guys who lead the league in complete games in consecutive years. From 1970-1989 it also happened nine times. In 1950-1970 it happened eight times, and that’s counting a seven-year run by Warren Spahn as one streak. Just thought you’d like to know that.)
Let’s start there. Let’s look at those nine players who led their league in complete games for two consecutive years:
Roy Halladay – 2007-2008
Livian Hernandez – 2003-2004
Mark Mulder – 2003-2004
Curt Schilling – 2000-2001
Randy Johnson – 1999-2000
David Wells – 1999-2000
Pat Hentgen – 1996-1997
Greg Maddux – 1993-1995
Jack McDowell – 1991-1992
It’s an impressive list: nine pitchers, twelve Cy Young Awards. Five Cy Young winners, plus the likes of Curt Schilling and David Wells and Livian Hernandez.
You lead the league in complete games in consecutive years, and people start talking about it. Let’s go through the list and check out how they did in their back-to-back years, and how they did afterwards. Leaving Halladay off the list, we’ll go in chronological order.
Livian Hernandez
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
2003
|
8
|
15-10
|
3.20
|
233.1
|
1.209
|
28
|
|
2004
|
9
|
11-15.
|
3.60
|
255.0
|
1.243
|
29
|
|
2005
|
2
|
15-10
|
3.98
|
246.1
|
1.429
|
30
|
|
2006
|
0
|
13-13
|
4.83
|
216.0
|
1.500
|
31
|
Livian, in his age 28-31 seasons, posted remarkably similar W-L numbers. His ERA increased every year since the first year he led the league in complete games, as did his WHIP. A remarkably durable pitcher, Livian had seven straight seasons of 210+ IP. And most of those years were well above 210 innings pitched.
Mark Mulder
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
2003
|
9
|
15-9
|
3.13
|
186.2
|
1.179
|
25
|
|
2004
|
5
|
17-8
|
4.43
|
225.2
|
1.356
|
26
|
|
2005
|
3
|
16-8
|
3.64
|
205.0
|
1.376
|
27
|
|
2006
|
0
|
6-7.
|
7.14
|
93.1
|
1.704
|
28
|
Like Hernandez, Mulder’s WHIP increased every year since the first year he led the league in complete games. Mulder was sent from Oakland to the Cardinals in 2005, and in 2006 he was diagnosed with rotator cuff problems.
Curt Schilling
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
2000
|
8
|
11-12.
|
3.81
|
210.1
|
1.184
|
33
|
|
2001
|
6
|
22-6
|
2.98
|
256.2
|
1.075
|
34
|
|
2002
|
5
|
23-7
|
3.23
|
259.1
|
0.986
|
35
|
|
2003
|
3
|
8-9.
|
2.95
|
168.0
|
1.048
|
36
|
Schilling was already established as a guy who finished what he started, having led the league in 1996 and 1998. Bucking the trend, Schilling’s WHIP went down in the years following his complete game runs, and he would have a few more memorable seasons after 2003. Schilling is the first great player on the list; the first Hall-of-Fame caliber player. He won’t be the last.
Randy Johnson
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
1999
|
12
|
17-9
|
2.48
|
271.2
|
1.020
|
35
|
|
2000
|
8
|
19-7
|
2.64
|
248.2
|
1.118
|
36
|
|
2001
|
3
|
21-6
|
2.49
|
249.2
|
1.009
|
37
|
|
2002
|
8
|
24-5
|
2.32
|
260.0
|
1.031
|
38
|
|
2003
|
1
|
6-8.
|
4.26
|
114.0
|
1.333
|
39
|
These years cover Johnson’s astonishing four-year Cy Young run with Arizona, which overlaps some with Schilling’s seasons listed above. Like Schilling, Johnson was astonishingly good at a pretty advanced age. It’s funny that people talk about Sandy Koufax’s prime, but no one has suggested that Randy's stretch might've been a few ticks better. Like Schilling, Johnson has a shortened 2003 season: considering his age, I’d hesitate to draw any conclusions that the off-year had anything to do with complete games.
David Wells
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
1999
|
7
|
17-10
|
4.82
|
231.2
|
1.329
|
36
|
|
2000
|
9
|
20-8
|
4.11
|
229.2
|
1.293
|
37
|
|
2001
|
1
|
5-7.
|
4.47
|
100.2
|
1.401
|
38
|
|
2002
|
2
|
19-7
|
3.75
|
206.1
|
1.236
|
39
|
Same age as Randy Johnson, threw from the same side, that’s about where the similarities end. Wells certainly wasn’t short, but he wasn’t six-ten, either, and they have different builds. Johnson has always been a quiet, intense kind of player; soft-spoken when he isn’t pitching. Wells, of course, was completely different: he has always been very comfortable in the limelight. Wells two fine stints in New York; four years of great pitching. Johnson’s time in the Bronx was a bust: seventeen wins each year, but high peripheral numbers and a postseason ERA over 6.00.
Wells has scattered numbers: there is a slight down-tick after his two years of leading the league in complete games, but he bounced back in 2002, at the age of 39, and had the best year of the four listed above.
Pat Hentgen
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
1996
|
10
|
20-10
|
3.22
|
265.2
|
1.250
|
27
|
|
1997
|
9
|
15-10
|
3.64
|
264.0
|
1.227
|
28
|
|
1998
|
0
|
12-11.
|
5.17
|
177.2
|
1.559
|
29
|
|
1999
|
1
|
11-12.
|
4.79
|
199.0
|
1.457
|
30
|
Same pattern as Hernandez and Mulder: ERA and WHIP increased after he led the league in complete games. You can split the six players into two age groups: young and old. The young’uns struggle some after establishing themselves as finishers. The old guys don’t seem to notice any: they pitch just as good, or they get better.
Hentgen won a Cy Young award as a Blue Jay, and his career has mirrored Halladay’s. Or: Halladay's career is mirroring Hentgen, Hentgen being the first.
Hentgen won 19 games as a twenty-four year old; Halladay won 19 as a twenty-five year old. At twenty-seven Hentgen won 20 and the Cy Young. At twenty-six, Halladay won twenty-two and his Cy Young. They both had a stretch of lackluster years after their Cy Young awards, wasteland years where they’d notch 12-15 wins each season, doing nothing else of note. They both completed games for the Canadian Jays. Of course, Hentgen was done at thirty-two, whereas Halladay has turned it on in his thirties.
Just saying: I get ‘em confused sometimes.
Who’s the best Blue jay pitcher of all-time? Steib is still number one, probably, but Hallatgen has to be gaining on him.
Greg Maddux
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
1993
|
8
|
20-10
|
2.36
|
267.0
|
1.049
|
27
|
|
1994
|
10
|
16-6
|
1.56
|
202.0
|
0.896
|
28
|
|
1995
|
10
|
19-2
|
1.63
|
209.2
|
0.811
|
29
|
|
1996
|
5
|
15-11
|
2.72
|
245.0
|
1.033
|
30
|
|
1997
|
5
|
19-4
|
2.20
|
232.2
|
0.946
|
31
|
Same age as Hentgen, but obviously Maddux didn’t have any problems later on down the road. Another way to sort it is to divide the great pitchers from the merely good pitchers. Which means we take Johnson and Maddux, two of the twelve greatest pitchers of all-time, out of the discussion.
Jack McDowell
|
Year
|
CG
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
WHIP
|
Age
|
|
1991
|
15
|
17-10
|
3.41
|
253.2
|
1.159
|
25
|
|
1992
|
13
|
20-10
|
3.18
|
260.2
|
1.235
|
26
|
|
1993
|
10
|
22-10
|
3.37
|
256.2
|
1.286
|
27
|
|
1994
|
6
|
10-9
|
3.73
|
181.0
|
1.260
|
28
|
The guy who, I think, was first called a ‘throwback.’ I used to follow McDowell closely - I collected a lot of his cards and even landed an autographed Fleer– and the blub on the back of his cards always talked about his complete games. Blackjack had three terrific years for the White Sox, winning a Cy Young and coming in second another year. He petered out after that: like Hentgen and Mulder, Jack McDowell was done by the time he crossed into his thirties.
Does Finishing Games Do Damage?
I doubt it: I don’t think it’s trying to complete games that create a problem. Pitching a lot of innings at a young age is certainly a problem, and the further a pitcher goes in each game, the more danger they’re in. Having a lot of innings and a lot of long starts might have hurt Mark Mulder, but I doubt that any part of that was him feeling any pressure to complete his own games.
The question that starts this essay, does a reputation for finishing games hurt a pitcher, is just about impossible to prove. Even if there is a record of decline (as there is with Hernandez, Mulder, and, eventually, McDowell), it is impossible to say whether that decline has anything to do with that pitcher trying to finish games. So it’s a straw-man argument: nothing to prove, really, but a fun thing to look at.
Another thing, which is going to turn into a long digression: not many pitchers actually get that throwback label. Halladay has it, for sure, but Sabathia’s thrown just as many, and no one talks about it with him. Clemens threw a lot of complete games, as did Randy Johnson. No one ever called those guys throwbacks.
Why does it happen? Near as I can tell, calling someone a ‘throwback’ is a way to give that player a kind of narrative, a story for them. It puts a face to the numbers, so to speak, makes a player memorable.
Thinking about the list of nine, most of those guys had other narratives going. Livian Hernandez, the brother of El Duque and an exile from Cuba, he had another narrative: no one was going to talk about his complete games. That wasn’t going to stick. Mark Mulder was the future ace, the bright young talent. Randy Johnson was the wild flamethrower, the tall talent who’s arm needed to be harnessed. Maddux had the narrative of “Is This the Greatest Pitcher Ever?” When you post consecutive years of ERA’s in the one-point-something range, that’s what people talk about. They aren’t too interested in the complete games.
For a few pitchers, I think the idea of ‘going the distance’ does get meshed into the narrative we create about them. For Halladay, this is glaringly true: that he completes a lot of games is the first thing most of us think about Halladay. I think the same was true for Jack McDowell, for a time, and I think it was true for Curt Schilling, too.
But it’s a fragile detail: it gets overshadowed when other details come in. When Jack McDowell won his Cy Young award, people did talk about the complete games. But after he won it, people talked about the award instead.
Same thing holds for Schilling: for a while the fact that he completed his starts was the most memorable part of his pitching, that or his 300 strikeout seasons. Then when he went to Arizona and Boston and started winning twenty games and World Series trophies, and suddenly the complete games weren’t an important part of his narrative anymore. Other things have replaced it.
Halladay has the throwback label because, well, he’s boring. He doesn’t get a huge number of strikeouts, doesn’t have electric, unbelievable stuff. He plays in Canada, which is as boring as boring can be, and he hasn’t even seen the postseason. He’s a Mormon, which means he probably doesn’t make too many appearances on page 6, or whatever they call the gossip section up in that frozen tundra. He’s the best pitcher in the American League, but that’s not really an angle. How many times are you gonna write that column?
So they write about complete games. And that will change: eventually another narrative will take over. It will happen because the number of games he completes is bound to decline. For one thing, Halladay completes so many games in part because Toronto’s bullpen has been so shaky in recent years. If he pitched for the Yankees, or any team that has a bona-fide closer, he wouldn’t have those same kinds of chances. Sabathia has only two complete games this year. And as Halladay ages, there will be less expectation that he should finish his games: increasingly, leads will be turned over the bullpens, and Halladay will be another six-seven inning starter.
It’ll happen quicker than we think. If he gets traded to a contender or wins another Cy Young or becomes a likely candidate for the Hall of Fame, we’ll find a new narrative for him. And all this talk of sleeper cars and flannel uniforms, of throwbacks and going-the-distance; we’ll forget all about it.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, Iowa. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggests here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com. He wants his neighbors up north to know that he respects Canada very much, and he’s sure it’s not as boring as everyone says it is.