So far we have:
C- Jorge Posada
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Jeff Kent
3B – Alex Rodriguez
SS – Derek Jeter
With the second team being Mauer, Helton, Utley, Chipper Jones, and Tejada.
For the outfield, I decided I wanted a center fielder, right fielder, and left fielder. None of that ‘pick the three best outfielders’ silliness. Same holds for the designated hitter: if I were designing a team, I might want the decade’s fourth-best outfielder as my designated hitter, but for this exercise a player had to actually be a designated hitter to get consideration as DH of the Decade.
Leftfield
Let’s get this over with, huh?
|
OPS+
|
G
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Barry Bonds
|
221
|
986
|
317
|
.322
|
.517
|
.724
|
Manny Ramirez
|
160
|
1325
|
342
|
.318
|
.419
|
.602
|
Adam Dunn
|
133
|
1253
|
310
|
.251
|
.385
|
.524
|
Matt Holliday
|
133
|
818
|
145
|
.319
|
.388
|
.547
|
Jason Bay
|
130
|
886
|
176
|
.279
|
.376
|
.517
|
I went down to the top-five in OPS just to get Jason Bay some love. It’s really a two-horse race.
In The Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill observed that the further you go down the defensive spectrum, the more jerks you get. Certainly, the two contenders for best Left Fielder of the Decade have done little to dispel that notion.
Had Manny not gotten suspended for using steroids this year, this might be an interesting debate. But here’s the thing: if anything, Manny’s crime is worse than what Barry did. Barry admitted to using steroids when baseball had no rules against using steroids. But Manny tested positive when steroids were against the rules. Manny’s the bigger cheater.
And, obviously, Barry’s had a tremendous decade. That’s a .517 on-base percentage folks: Barry reached base more often than he got out, for an entire decade. Even with three fewer seasons than Manny, he’s ahead on Win Shares:
|
Bonds
|
Manny
|
2000
|
32
|
27
|
2001
|
54
|
25
|
2002
|
49
|
29
|
2003
|
38
|
28
|
2004
|
48
|
25
|
2005
|
2
|
33
|
2006
|
25
|
27
|
2007
|
19
|
14
|
2008
|
-
|
31
|
2009
|
-
|
13
|
Total
|
267
|
252
|
In fact, Barry Bonds is probably the best argument against Pujols for Player of the Decade. Win Shares:
|
Pujols
|
Bonds
|
2000
|
-
|
32
|
2001
|
29
|
54
|
2002
|
32
|
49
|
2003
|
41
|
38
|
2004
|
37
|
48
|
2005
|
34
|
2
|
2006
|
37
|
25
|
2007
|
32
|
19
|
2008
|
34
|
-
|
2009
|
30
|
-
|
Total
|
306
|
267
|
Pujols is ahead, but it’s close. It would be closer if any team had signed Barry in 2008 or 2009. Who would you take? Pujols for ten years, or Barry for seven, plus a replacement-level corner outfielder for three years? It’d be close.
Bill wrote a great article on this site speculating that Bonds was likely to enter a steep decline in 2008. And while I think Bill was certainly correct on that point, I’m curious why no team in baseball bothered to find out. Typically, some team always ends up taking a flier on aging 40-something Hall-of-Famer. So how come no one thought Bonds and his .480 on-base percentage weren’t worth the risk?
Anyway, Barry, with his four MVP Awards, is the Left Fielder of the Decade.
Centerfield
Who are you thinking? What names pops into your head?
Beltran, Williams, Griffey, Sizemore...I thought about all of those guys. I didn’t think about Jim Edmonds. Forgot all about him, to be honest:
|
OPS+
|
G
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Jim Edmonds
|
140
|
1216
|
261
|
.280
|
.389
|
.548
|
Carlos Beltran
|
122
|
1373
|
249
|
.282
|
.363
|
.503
|
Grady Sizemore
|
122
|
778
|
128
|
.275
|
.366
|
.484
|
Bernie Williams
|
119
|
980
|
136
|
.288
|
.372
|
.466
|
Ken Griffey, Jr.
|
118
|
1077
|
225
|
.265
|
.359
|
.500
|
Milton Bradley
|
116
|
919
|
112
|
.277
|
.371
|
.450
|
Curtis Granderson
|
116
|
633
|
95
|
.275
|
.347
|
.487
|
Andruw Jones
|
112
|
1404
|
308
|
.257
|
.339
|
.493
|
Mike Cameron
|
111
|
1353
|
215
|
.254
|
.344
|
.458
|
Torii Hunter
|
110
|
1319
|
221
|
.275
|
.331
|
.481
|
Perhaps the most interesting player on the list is Andruw Jones. Through 2006, Jones had 262 homeruns during the decade, and had won seven consecutive Gold Glove awards. Then he fell off a cliff. Over the last three years of the decade, Jones has posted a .208/.305/.397 line, with just 46 homeruns. He still leads all center fielders in homeruns over the decade.
This one comes down to Carlos Beltran and Jim Edmonds, two supremely underrated players. Edmonds has a slight edge in on-base percentage, while Beltran has a significant edge on the base paths: we rate Beltran as having notched +290 extra bases since 2002, while Jim Edmond clocks in at -12.
Who’s a better fielder?
John Dewan’s fielding stats only go back to 2004, so there is a strong biased towards Beltran. We get 487 games of Edmonds in centerfield, 802 games for Beltran.
|
Beltran
|
|
Edmonds
|
|
|
Enhanced +/-
|
Runs Saved
|
Enhanced +/-
|
Runs Saved
|
2004
|
+10
|
6
|
-25
|
-14
|
2005
|
+4
|
2
|
-6
|
-3
|
2006
|
+11
|
6
|
+2
|
1
|
2007
|
+24
|
13
|
-11
|
-6
|
2008
|
+25
|
14
|
-25
|
-14
|
2009
|
+7
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
Total
|
+81
|
+45
|
-65
|
-36
|
We get the tail end of Edmond’s career set against the peak of Beltran’s career, which isn’t quite fair to Jim Edmonds. That said, Edmonds did win a Gold Glove in 2004 and 2005, a two year stretch over which Beltran made 46 more plays and saved his team twenty more runs.
I don’t know if Beltran was a bettercenter fielder than Jim Edmonds, but I’m confident that he was a better fielder over this decade that Jim Edmonds was.
Edmonds has a slight edge as a hitter. But Beltran is the better defensive player, and a far better player on the bases. Is it enough?
Win Shares says it is:
|
Beltran
|
Edmonds
|
2000
|
5
|
29
|
2001
|
27
|
30
|
2002
|
20
|
29
|
2003
|
28
|
21
|
2004
|
29
|
33
|
2005
|
21
|
25
|
2006
|
34
|
11
|
2007
|
25
|
9
|
2008
|
29
|
11
|
2009
|
12
|
-
|
Total
|
230
|
198
|
It’s a close call. Forced to choose, I’ll take the five-tool guy. Carlos Beltran is the Center Fielder of the decade, by a hair over Jim Edmonds.
Right Field
A lot of right fielders have had terrific decades. The top dozen of the decade, by the quick n’ dirty measure of OPS+:
|
OPS+
|
G
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
147
|
1395
|
311
|
.324
|
.393
|
.573
|
Sammy Sosa
|
142
|
945
|
273
|
.282
|
.372
|
.570
|
Larry Walker
|
139
|
690
|
121
|
.315
|
.421
|
.562
|
Brian Giles
|
136
|
1407
|
209
|
.289
|
.400
|
.494
|
Bobby Abreu
|
132
|
1537
|
212
|
.298
|
.403
|
.493
|
Magglio Ordonez
|
132
|
1315
|
227
|
.314
|
.377
|
.522
|
J.D. Drew
|
130
|
1196
|
189
|
.284
|
.394
|
.502
|
Shawn Green
|
121
|
1235
|
209
|
.281
|
.361
|
.489
|
Andre Ethier
|
120
|
542
|
69
|
.295
|
.366
|
.493
|
Nick Markakis
|
120
|
588
|
74
|
.301
|
.371
|
.478
|
Brad Hawpe
|
119
|
696
|
105
|
.286
|
.377
|
.500
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
118
|
1395
|
81
|
.333
|
.378
|
.434
|
A couple quick comments:
-Larry Walker, like Todd Helton, has a huge home/road split during his career: .348/.431/.637 at home, .278/.370/.495 on the road. Putting that in context with historical right fielders, Larry Walker was Babe Ruth in Coors, Dwight Evans away from it.
It will be interesting to see how history judges Larry Walker. There are two strikes against him: one that he compiled his numbers in the best offensive environment in baseball history; and two, he did this during the so-called ‘steroid era.’ He was a heckuva player, though: a great outfielder and some kind of hitter. I always thought he was a Hall-of-Fame player.
-Brian Giles has had a quietly terrific decade. Sort of the antithesis of Larry Walker: Giles has spent the better part of the decade playing in a lousy park for hitters, and his numbers don’t do justice to how good of a hitter he he’s been. Of course, a few off-the-field lowlights make it tough to root for the guy.
-Bobby Abreu does very well on the list. He’s played more games than any other right fielder, and ranks fifth in OPS+. He’s second in stolen bases, second in on-base percentage, first in walks, first in runs, fifth in homeruns, and third in hits. That’s impressive: he might not be the best right fielder of the decade, but he’s been pretty good.
-J.D. Drew has been a fine, under-rated player, but it’ll be neck-and-neck as to whether or not he passes Shawn Green in games played this decade. Ethier, Markakis, and Hawpe are early candidates for the next decade.
Some great candidates, but the race for Right Fielder of the Decade comes down to Ichiro or Vlad, two of the most wonderfully unique and memorable players of the last ten years. I love Albert Pujols, but he isn’t anywhere near as fun to watch as Vlad and Ichiro.
Vlad and Ichiro have some similarities:
-They were both born in foreign countries.
-They are both right-handed throws, and both have terrific arms.
-Both have won MVP awards this decade.
-As of this writing, they have each played 1395 games this decade.
-They both have unique approaches to hitting, and
-They are both known by their first name.
They have differences, too. Obviously.
Vlad is a power-hitter, and one of those rare hitters (Berra, Clemente) who will hit anything a pitcher throws, and hit it hard. He walks maybe 55 times a year, and half of those walks are intentional. As a younger player, he tried to steal bases, but he got caught stealing a fair bit. He’s never won a Gold Glove, but he has 127 career assists from the outfield.
(Here’s a quick question: do you think, when the opposition decides to intentionally walk Vlad, that the catcher has to make it a point to tell Guerrero that they’re going outside? I mean, if I were a catcher, I’d mention it to him. “Hey Vlad, we’re giving up. We’re going way outside on the next four. Just thought I’d mention that.”)
Ichiro’s approach to hitting baseballs was something utterly unique in the game: when he swings, his front leg comes back almost over his back leg and then sweeps it out, and he drags his back leg forward as the bat comes over the plate. It’s a contact/speed swing: he makes solid contact and his body is already in motion towards first base when the bat makes contact.
Back in his first years in the Japanese league, Ichiro’s swing was, if you can believe it, far more exaggerated than it is now: there is a clip on youtube from 1995, where Ichiro swings his front leg back to where it is almost over his back kneecap, before he swings it forward again. It’s amazing to see.
As a base runner, Ichiro has been remarkable: since turning 30, he has stolen 218 bases in 259 attempts, an 84% success rate. He was 45-for-47 in stolen base attempts in 2006, and 43-for-47 in 2008. He is almost certainly the best base runner of the decade: according to our site, Ichiro is +297 bases as a base runner since 2002, netting his team an average of 37 extra bases a year. He’s a hair ahead of Carlos Beltran, who clocks in at +290 bases. As an outfielder, Ichiro has won a Gold Glove every year he has been in the major leagues.
|
1B
|
2B+3B
|
HR
|
BB
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vlad
|
1053
|
348
|
311
|
561
|
147
|
.324
|
.393
|
.573
|
Ichiro
|
1617
|
290
|
81
|
404
|
339
|
.333
|
.378
|
.434
|
The difference is obvious: Ichiro gets more singles and stolen bases, but Vlad rates an edge in extra-base hits and walks.
Here are their singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns, translated as a percentage of their plate appearances:
|
1B
|
2B+3B
|
HR
|
BB
|
Vlad
|
17%
|
5.4%
|
4.8%
|
8.7%
|
Ichiro
|
27%
|
4.9%
|
1.4%
|
6.8%
|
Ichiro hits a single in 10% more plate appearances than Ichiro. But Vlad gains a half-percentage point in doubles and triples, three and a half points in homeruns, and another two percentage points in walks.
As base runners, Ichiro is way ahead of Vlad: since 2002, Ichiro is +297 bases, Vlad is -89. That’s a difference of 386 bases in eight years, or almost 45 extra bases in favor of Ichiro.
Win Shares has it at an even draw. Dead-even.
|
Vlad
|
Ichiro
|
2000
|
29
|
-
|
2001
|
23
|
36
|
2002
|
28
|
26
|
2003
|
18
|
23
|
2004
|
27
|
27
|
2005
|
27
|
22
|
2006
|
24
|
24
|
2007
|
29
|
33
|
2008
|
22
|
19
|
2009
|
5
|
22
|
Total
|
232
|
232
|
And that’s with Ichiro missing the 2000 season. During the nine seasons when they went head-to-head, Ichiro leads in four seasons, Vlad in three, with two draws.
Clutch hitting, again from our site, since 2002:
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vlad
|
341
|
441
|
655
|
Ichiro
|
311
|
388
|
407
|
Who you want? The big power hitter or the singles hitter with speed and defense?
One way to answer this question is to consider this All-Decade team as a team: which kind of player do you need more?
You have Posada, Pujols, Kent, A-Rod, Jeter, Bonds, and Beltran, and whoever ends up as the DH.
None of those players are obvious leadoff hitters: if you went with Vlad, you’d have to slot Jeter in the leadoff spot.
As a defensive team, you have strong positives at first and center, but only neutral players at third, and catcher. In left you have the bobble-headed version of a good left fielder, plus two huge liabilities at second and shortstop. This is a team that is going to be terrible at turning the double play. It might help to have a right fielder cutting down balls on the line.
Is it a fast team? Well, Beltran is a terrific runner, and Rodriguez and Jeter run a fair bit. But Bonds was slowing down, and Posada and Kent aren’t anyone’s idea of ‘fast.’ Pujols might be a good base runner, but he’s not a fast runner.
It’s tough to ignore the fact that Vlad has fifteen points in on-base average and one-hundred and forty points in slugging percentage. Were I drafting just one player, I’d stick with the big bopper. But for this team, I’ll take Ichiro.
Designated Hitter
|
G
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
Jim Thome
|
1345
|
368
|
272
|
400
|
565
|
148
|
Travis Hafner
|
798
|
160
|
282
|
388
|
531
|
140
|
Ellis Burks
|
450
|
91
|
299
|
376
|
536
|
139
|
Edgar Martinez
|
668
|
111
|
295
|
401
|
499
|
138
|
David Ortiz
|
1305
|
299
|
283
|
378
|
554
|
136
|
Frank Thomas
|
951
|
220
|
273
|
387
|
528
|
136
|
Jack Cust
|
459
|
83
|
240
|
376
|
458
|
125
|
Mike Sweeney
|
996
|
163
|
301
|
371
|
499
|
122
|
A little confession: Jim Thome should probably be listed among the first basemen. He played 728 games at first, 575 as a designated. By years end it will probably be 728 at first, 625 as a designated hitter. At decade’s end, Jim Thome will have been a DH for 46% of the decade, a first basemen for 54%. I should’ve listed him as a first basemen, where he’d rank behind Pujols and probably Helton, and neck-and-neck with Jason Giambi.
So why didn’t I?
A few reasons: first, I think of Thome as a designated hitter. It’s just what pops into my head. Second, I wanted some competition for David Ortiz. It’d be a boring section, otherwise. Third: I didn’t want anyone to gripe that I was showing any kind of Red Sox bias by leaving Thome out of the discussion, all because of four lousy percentage points.
With due respect to Thomas, Martinez, and Hafner, the debate is between Ortiz and Thome. By the metrics above, Thome is ahead: he has played more games, and he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and adjusted OPS than Ortiz.
That said, Ortiz has a few advantages. Let’s go ahead through them:
-Better finishes in the MVP vote.The writers of this decade have routinely thought of David Ortiz as one of the most valuable players in the game. He finished in the top-five in the MVP vote for five consecutive seasons, finishing 5th, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, between 2003 to 2007. Thome, too, has appeared on five MVP ballots, but he hasn’t done as well, finishing 4th, 7th, 7th, 12th, and 19th.
-More appearances on the All-Star team. Ortiz had played in five All-Star games this decade, starting on three of those teams. Thome has played in two All-Star games, neither time as a starter.
-More Silver Slugger Awards.The Silver Slugger, voted on by managers and coaches, has been awarded to Ortiz four times this decade. Jim Thome won zero Silver Sluggers over the decade.
Those three are subjective measures. I mention them because it is telling, I think, that the fans, writers, managers, and coaches have routinely selected Ortiz as the better player this decade.
-More playoff experience, and better numbers in the playoffs.David Ortiz has played in 63 postseason games this decade, and has posted a .293/.401/.543 line in those games. His teams have played in thirteen postseason series and have won nine of those contests. He has played in two World Series, posting a .321/.444/.571 line, and his team won both of those contests.
Jim Thome has played in exactly two postseasons this decade, ALDS loses in 2001 and 2008. He hit .143 over those contests, with a correspondently low on-base and slugging percentage.
-Better clutch numbers in the regular season.Our clutch stats (going back to 2002) show that David Ortiz has been a far better hitter in clutch situations than Jim Thome:
|
AB
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Thome
|
419
|
26
|
.239
|
.386
|
.477
|
Ortiz
|
551
|
45
|
.299
|
.397
|
.624
|
Over their careers, Ortiz has been better than Thome in situations where there are 2-outs and runners in scoring positions, and in ‘late and close’ situations, which are situations when ‘the batting team is tied, ahead by one, or with the tying run at least on deck, in the 7th inning or later’ (from baseball-reference.com):
2 outs, RISP
|
PA
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Thome
|
935
|
59
|
.256
|
.435
|
.504
|
Ortiz
|
752
|
37
|
.282
|
.408
|
.550
|
Late & Close
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thome
|
1146
|
70
|
.253
|
.388
|
.491
|
Ortiz
|
834
|
44
|
.271
|
.376
|
.542
|
There is one final element that I am hesitant to mention, but I think it deserves some attention. Jim Thome, by all accounts, is a nice, well-liked guy.
But David Ortiz...his contributions to the Red Sox go beyond just thenumbers. I can’t really explain it, and conviction probably isn’t enough to sway this audience, but if any player can actually contribute positively to the spirit or psyche of a baseball team, then David Ortiz has done that for Boston.
I was watching the Sunday night game, Sox versus Yankees. Ortiz was on the bench. At one point in the ninth inning, Joe Morgan or Steve Phillips, whoever was filling the role of talking jackass for that minute of the broadcast, started griping that Ortiz should be pinch-hitting. As they said it, the camera panned over to the Sox dugout, where Ortiz was leaning over the railing.
You might have seen that and thought, “Isn’t that great, how Ortiz is watching the pitcher.” You might have thought he was stretching his legs, getting ready to come to bat if a few more runners got on.
Here’s the thing: that’s where Ortiz spends most games. Make it a point to watch it some time: he is almost always leaning on the railing or moving around in the dugout making small-talk with the other guys on the team.
Years ago, I was gifted a few seats directly behind the Red Sox dugout. Front row seats, just astonishing seats. It was a game against Texas, and Ortiz was benched because there was a lefty, and he had some nagging injury. It was a meaningless summer game, a make-up of a rain-out against a crummy club, and Ortiz, who wasn’t in the lineup, spent the better part of the last six innings leaning on the railing, or popping in and out of the dugout.
I watched him, in part because how do you not watch David Ortiz, especially when he’s ten feet away; a great, disembodied head peeking over the concrete dugout. He looked like he was having the goddamned time of his life, like the most he wanted in the world was to be sitting there chatting it up with whoever was waiting to go out to hit. When the game got close, he got serious, acted like the fate of the season rested on Wily Mo Pena’s ability to get a crucial hit. And when Pena delivered that hit, Ortiz cheered as loud as the rest of us.
When people talk about Derek Jeter being a leader, I sort of shut it out. If he was such a leader, I wonder why the hell he didn’t he shift over to third when the Yankees acquired a better shortstop? Isn’t that a ‘leadership’ thing, sacrificing your ego for the good of the team?
And sometimes it seems that all it takes to be a leader in New York is to keep your mouth shut most of the time and stay off the back pages. DiMaggio was the same way; people rave about Joe DiMaggio being some mythic ‘quiet leader,’ but the guy sounded like hell to be around. I’d rather have Mantle.
David Ortiz, I don’t know if he is a ‘leader.’ But he is, I think, a man whose personality is so expansive that it fosters a sense of unity on a team. It’s something that can’t be measured, but if I had to guess, I’d guess that David Ortiz has added more to the Red Sox than just his statistics suggest.
Am I going to take Ortiz over Thome? I am. Jim Thome is a great player. But this has been some decade for Big Papi. I’ll take Ortiz as my designated hitter.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, IA. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.