Zack Greinke is getting most of the positive press about the Kansas City Royals. That’s fine: he’s turning in a great season and, if there is justice in the world, he should walk away with the AL Cy Young Award this year.
Greinke isn’t the only Royal player turning in a season worthy of attention. Billy Butler, Kansas City’s erstwhile first baseman, is also having a fine year.
Here: pick Billy Butler’s 2009 season from the seasons listed below.
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
22
|
134
|
47
|
27
|
58
|
97
|
|
23
|
98
|
53
|
28
|
78
|
153
|
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
23
|
117
|
50
|
26
|
86
|
108
|
|
22
|
111
|
46
|
17
|
56
|
128
|
|
23
|
129
|
48
|
29
|
52
|
95
|
|
24
|
113
|
48
|
20
|
99
|
113
|
|
24
|
103
|
48
|
14
|
47
|
94
|
|
23
|
100
|
47
|
21
|
62
|
90
|
|
23
|
105
|
63
|
26
|
63
|
93
|
If you follow the Royals, you probably know that Butler collected his fiftieth double on the season, which takes out some of the names above. And, just as likely, you know that Butler is probably not closing in on Earl Webb’s single-season record. So, that guy with sixty-three doubles is out.
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
23
|
98
|
53
|
28
|
78
|
153
|
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
23
|
117
|
50
|
26
|
86
|
108
|
Still a tough call, so I’ll tell you: Billy Butler is the guy in the middle. At this writing, Butler has 106 singles, 51 doubles, 21 homeruns, 56 walks, and 98 strikeouts. What players had similar seasons, at a similar age?
The first list shows the ten players between the ages of 22 and 24, who had seasons of at least 45 doubles, 15 homeruns, 50 or more strikeouts, and 40-100 walks. It’s actually nine players: one guy shows up twice.
Same chart, with the names added:
|
Name
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
Cal Ripken
|
22
|
134
|
47
|
27
|
58
|
97
|
|
Grady Sizemore
|
23
|
98
|
53
|
28
|
78
|
153
|
|
Billy Butler
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
23
|
117
|
50
|
26
|
86
|
108
|
|
Hanley Ramirez
|
22
|
111
|
46
|
17
|
56
|
128
|
|
Hanley Ramirez
|
23
|
129
|
48
|
29
|
52
|
95
|
|
Nick Markakis
|
24
|
113
|
48
|
20
|
99
|
113
|
|
Dmitri Young
|
24
|
103
|
48
|
14
|
47
|
94
|
|
Fred Lynn
|
23
|
100
|
47
|
21
|
62
|
90
|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
23
|
105
|
63
|
26
|
63
|
93
|
It’s an impressive list: Ripken and Greenberg are Hall-of-Fame players, Fred Lynn was one of the fifteen best centerfielders in history, and Ramirez (who appears twice), Cabrera, Markakis, and Sizemore are four of the brightest stars in the game today. Dmitri Young is the worst player in the lot, by a wide margin, and Dmitri Young isn’t a bad ballplayer.
Let’s look at Billy Butler one-on-one with a few names on the list. Freddie Lynn and Butler:
|
Name
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
Billy Butler
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
Fred Lynn
|
23
|
100
|
47
|
21
|
62
|
90
|
As fielders and as base runners, there is a substantial difference. But as hitters, there is almost no difference between Lynn’s 1975 MVP season, and Butler’s 2009 campaign.
How about Butler and Hanley Ramirez, Age 23:
|
Name
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
Billy Butler
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
Hanley Ramirez
|
23
|
129
|
48
|
29
|
52
|
95
|
Again, as hitters they’re almost exactly the same. Ramirez has more singles, triples, and homeruns, but their strikeout and walk totals are equal. Butler’s strikeout and walk rate is actually superior to Hanley’s: Ramirez was a leadoff hitter that season, and had more at-bats.
Of course, Hanley is a shortstop, and a fast player, whereas Butler is a first baseman/DH, and a slow runner. Purely as hitters, though, they are similar.
One more:
|
Name
|
Age
|
1B
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB
|
K
|
|
Billy Butler
|
23
|
106
|
51
|
21
|
56
|
98
|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
23
|
105
|
63
|
26
|
63
|
93
|
Same position, same age, and nearly identical totals. Taking into account contexts, Greenberg’s 93 strikeouts were far more dramatic than Butler’s 98. In 1934 Greenberg finished second in the American League in strikeouts; Butler is currently ranked 38th in the Junior Circuit.
Youngin’s a Doublin’
How about those fifty doubles? What do we make of that?
Alex Rodriguez hit fifty doubles at the age of twenty. No player in history has hit fifty doubles at the age of twenty-one. Or twenty-two.
Seven players have hit 50 or more doubles at the age of 23. You might recognize a few of them:
|
|
Year
|
2B
|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
1934
|
63
|
|
Enos Slaughter
|
1939
|
52
|
|
Stan Musial
|
1944
|
51
|
|
Albert Pujols
|
2003
|
51
|
|
Grady Sizemore
|
2006
|
53
|
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
2006
|
50
|
|
Billy Butler
|
2009
|
51
|
One would think that a player who hits a lot of doubles at a young age might turn a few of those doubles into homeruns the next year. Of the six players listed above, five of them did hit more homeruns the next season:
|
|
Year
|
2B
|
HR
|
Year
|
2B
|
HR
|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
1934
|
63
|
26
|
1935
|
46
|
36
|
|
Enos Slaughter
|
1939
|
52
|
12
|
1940
|
25
|
17
|
|
Stan Musial
|
1944
|
51
|
12
|
1945
|
50
|
16
|
|
Albert Pujols
|
2003
|
51
|
43
|
2004
|
51
|
46
|
|
Grady Sizemore
|
2006
|
53
|
28
|
2007
|
34
|
24
|
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
2006
|
50
|
26
|
2007
|
38
|
34
|
|
Billy Butler
|
2009
|
51
|
21
|
2010
|
?
|
?
|
For the most part, those spikes in homeruns weren’t dramatic a year later: Greenberg is the most improved, hitting ten more homeruns in 1935 than he did in 1934. That said, most of these players became excellent power hitters:
|
|
Single-Season HR Peak
|
Career HR
|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
58 (1934)
|
331
|
|
Enos Slaughter
|
18 (1946)
|
169
|
|
Stan Musial
|
39 (1948)
|
475
|
|
Albert Pujols
|
47 (2009)
|
366
|
|
Grady Sizemore
|
33 (2008)
|
129
|
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
37 (2008)
|
208
|
Only Slaughter never topped 30 home runs, but he made up for that by hitting over .300 nine times, with a high of .336. As far as batting average goes, only Sizemore hasn’t hit over .320, but it’s safe to say that his other offensive and defensive skills make up for his low batting average. Bottom line: hitting fifty doubles at a young age hints at real talent.
Splits
Here are Billy Butler’s first- and second-half splits on the season:
|
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
First Half
|
.290
|
.340
|
.449
|
.789
|
|
Second Half
|
.321
|
.391
|
.561
|
.952
|
If you play in a fantasy league, this is good information to have: Butler is trending upward as a hitter. And for what it’s worth, Butler’s batting average on balls-in-play has been steady over both halves: .329 in the first-half, .339 in the second.
What can we make of this split?
|
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Home
|
.362
|
.415
|
.612
|
.1027
|
|
Road
|
.243
|
.309
|
.382
|
.691
|
Butler has hit very well in Kansas City, a neutral park, but has been terrible on the road. Frankly, I don’t know what to make of it.
Looking Ahead
Who will be the best first baseman of the coming decade?
Some of the best first basemen in baseball are nearing their decline years. Pujols, Howard, and Teixeira are 29. Morneau is 28. Youkilis is 30, and Carlos Pena is 31. Lance Berkman is 33. They are the best in the game right now, but it is unlikely that they will be MVP candidates in 2015.
The best young first basemen in baseball are Prince Fielder (25), Miguel Cabrera (26), Joey Votto (25), Adrian Gonzalez (27). James Looney is 25. Chris Davis, who is splitting time between first and third, is twenty-three, the same age as Butler.
|
Age-23 Seasons
|
G
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
|
Billy Butler
|
155
|
51
|
21
|
.304
|
.364
|
.500
|
127
|
|
Prince Fielder
|
158
|
35
|
50
|
.288
|
.395
|
.618
|
156
|
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
158
|
50
|
26
|
.339
|
.430
|
.568
|
159
|
|
Joey Votto
|
24
|
7
|
4
|
.321
|
.360
|
.548
|
127
|
|
Adrian Gonzalez
|
43
|
7
|
6
|
.227
|
.272
|
.407
|
73
|
|
James Looney
|
91
|
18
|
15
|
.331
|
.381
|
.538
|
131
|
|
Chris Davis
|
109
|
14
|
20
|
.227
|
.276
|
.430
|
82
|
At twenty-three, Butler is a better player than most of those players were.
Votto and Gonzalez were both trying to break into the majors at twenty-three: Joey had a lot of success in his brief call-up; Adrian struggled and was traded to San Diego.
Looney had a terrific half-season at age 23, but he’s struggled to match those numbers in two seasons since. Chris Davis, who is Butler’s age, spent much of 2009 bouncing between AAA and the majors, and has been a below-average hitter this year.
Fielder and Cabrera were established stars at twenty-three: you can’t say that about Butler. But Butler holds his own against the other guys.
So good news, Royals fans: Billy Butler has a chance to be one of the best first basemen of the coming decade.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, IA. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.