Utley’s Perfect Season
Chase Utley was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen base attempts this year, a fact that was unknown to me until the playoffs started this week.
So how common is it to have a perfect season as a base stealer? Who holds the record? Where does Utley’s stand among the best ‘perfect’ seasons?
Let’s get into it.
Perfect Seasons
I’ll start by mentioning that we have caught stealing totals in the American League from 1920 on. The data in the National League is even spottier: we have the caught-stealing totals for 1920-1925, and then there is a twenty-five year gap until 1951.
To eliminate extraneous data, let’s limit the perfect seasons to guys who collected at least ten steals in their perfect seasons. How many does that leave us?
|
AL - 1920-2009
|
Year
|
SB
|
NL - 1920-1925, 1951-2009
|
Year
|
SB
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
1994
|
20
|
Carlos Beltran
|
2004
|
28
|
|
Gary Thurman
|
1989
|
16
|
Chase Utley
|
2009
|
23
|
|
Carlos Beltran
|
2000
|
13
|
Kevin McReynolds
|
1988
|
21
|
|
Rex Hudler
|
1995
|
13
|
Terry Shumpert
|
1999
|
14
|
|
Tim Raines
|
1994
|
13
|
Sean Berry
|
1994
|
14
|
|
Lee Tinsley
|
1994
|
13
|
Desi Relaford
|
2000
|
13
|
|
Tom Tresh
|
1964
|
13
|
Miguel Dilone
|
1977
|
12
|
|
Leon Culberson
|
1943
|
13
|
Johnny Bench
|
1975
|
11
|
|
Johnny Damon
|
2009
|
12
|
Jim Eisenreich
|
1995
|
10
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
1995
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
Fred Lynn
|
1980
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
Alexi Castilla
|
2009
|
11
|
AL and NL, 1951-2009
|
Year
|
SB
|
|
Albert Belle
|
1996
|
11
|
Davey Lopes
|
1984
|
15
|
|
Joe Carter
|
1994
|
11
|
David DeLucci
|
2003
|
12
|
|
Tony Bernazard
|
1982
|
11
|
Jason Bay
|
2008
|
10
|
|
Jesse Hill
|
1936
|
11
|
|
|
|
|
Michael Young
|
2008
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Mark Teahen
|
2006
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Miguel Tejada
|
2003
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
John Jaha
|
1992
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Frank Duffy
|
1976
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Dan Myers
|
1976
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Red Wilson
|
1958
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
1940
|
10
|
|
|
|
As you can see, the American League has seen far more perfect seasons on the bases than the National League, twenty-four to nine. There are also three perfect seasons by players who split time between two leagues.
The dramatic difference can’t be explained entirely by the lack of caught-stealing data in the National League: between the years of 1926 and 1950, only two AL players (Charlie Gehringer and Jesse Hill) notched perfect seasons. If we start in 1951, the American Leaguers still has a 22-9 edge in perfect stolen base seasons over the Senior Circuit.
Why?
I’m not sure, frankly, and I’d love to hear a hypothesis. It could be a fluke in the numbers: not getting caught stealing is a fluke event, and the league split might not mean anything at all.
Best of the Best
What is clear is that Utley’s season is one of the best perfect seasons in baseball history:
|
Name
|
Year
|
SB
|
|
Carlos Beltran
|
2004
|
28
|
|
Chase Utley
|
2009
|
23
|
|
Kevin McReynolds
|
1988
|
21
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
1994
|
20
|
|
Gary Thurman
|
1989
|
16
|
|
Davey Lopes
|
1984
|
15
|
Only Carlos Beltran has stolen more bases in a single-season without getting caught than Chase Utley did this year. He is one of four players to have perfect seasons with twenty or more steals.
Having a perfect season on the bases is a fluke thing, sure. But it’s telling that three of the four best seasons were notched by Hall-of-Fame-level players. Molitor, of course, is in the Hall-of-Fame: there is a good chance that Utley and Beltran will get there as well. Or: they should get there: they’ve certainly played like Hall-of-Famers in recent years.
Utley has always been a high-percentage base stealer: he is 83-for-94 on his career, a success rate of 88%. Same holds for Carlos Beltran, who has had two perfect seasons: before all is said and done, Beltran might be the best percentage base stealer in baseball history.
Molitor was a fast player as a youngster, but he wasn’t a high-percentage runner as a young player. The Ignitor notched his back-to-back perfect seasons when he was thirty-seven and thirty-eight years old.
McReynolds is the odd man out. After four years in the majors, McReynolds was 17-for-30 in stolen base attempts, a success rate a few ticks over 50%. In 1987 he joined the Mets, where he was dropped from the third spot in the batting order to the fifth or sixth spot. He responded by going 14-for-15 on the base paths in 1987, and a perfect 21-for-21 in 1988, when he finished third in the NL MVP vote.
I showed the top six seasons because I wanted to mention Davey Lopes. Lopes, as many of you know, once held the record for most consecutive steals, with 38. He also had a stolen base success rate of 83%, one of the finest rates of all-time.
Most of you probably know that Lopes is the first-base coach for the Phillies, who have been the best base running team in baseball over the last three seasons. Phillies net gain on the base paths, according to our site:
|
Year
|
Net Gain
|
ML Rank
|
|
2007
|
+135
|
1st
|
|
2008
|
+114
|
1st
|
|
2009
|
+103
|
1st
|
Of course, the Phillies were a good base running team before Lopes arrived: they ranked second in the majors in Net Gain on the base paths in 2006, and fourth in 2005.
Gary Thurman deserves a few words. He is obviously the outlier in the group: a part-time outfielder who came up through the Royals organization in the mid-1980’s. After posting a .313 batting average in AAA-level ball in 1986, the Royals brought him up as a potential replacement for Willie Wilson. He had Wilson-like skills: Thurman was a fast player, and he had a good arm in the outfield. He was Wilson-like as a hitter: no power whatsoever, minimal walks, lots of contact.
Here’s a theory, based on nothing: how much did Vince Coleman affect decision-making in the late 1980’s?
Think about it: the Cardinals won the 1985 and 1987 pennants with Vince Coleman leading off, and Vince Coleman got a lot of credit for that success. Far more than he deserved, in fact: from the start, Coleman was treated like a superstar when he was a marginal major league player.
I don’t know if it’s right, but I’d hazard a guess that the Royals saw Gary Thurman and thought, “He’ll be our Vince Coleman.”
Fun theory, eh? Well, it doesn’t work, at least not for the Royals. Kansas City didn’t give Thurman anything close to a real shot in the majors: he averaged about 80 plate appearances in each of his first four seasons. All the speed in the world couldn’t make up for Thurman’s inability to hit.
By Decades
Perfect seasons are getting increasingly common. Between 1920 and 1970, there were only five perfect seasons recorded in the majors:
|
1920-1969
|
Year
|
SB
|
|
Jesse Hill
|
1936
|
11
|
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
1940
|
10
|
|
Leon Culberson
|
1943
|
13
|
|
Red Wilson
|
1958
|
10
|
|
Tom Tresh
|
1964
|
13
|
All those seasons were by American League players. The first perfect season in the National League was the first perfect season of the 1970’s, and it came from an unlikely player:
|
1970's
|
|
|
|
Johnny Bench
|
1975
|
11
|
|
Frank Duffy
|
1976
|
10
|
|
Dan Myers
|
1976
|
10
|
|
Miguel Dilone
|
1977
|
12
|
Prior to his perfect season, Bench was 29-for-55 as a base stealer, but he posted two terrific seasons on the base paths, going 11-for-11 in 1975, and 13-for-15 in 1976.
In the 1980’s, the number of players notching perfect seasons continued to rise: the decade of Henderson, Raines, and Coleman saw five perfect seasons:
|
1980's
|
|
|
|
Fred Lynn
|
1980
|
12
|
|
Tony Bernazard
|
1982
|
11
|
|
Davey Lopes
|
1984
|
15
|
|
Kevin McReynolds
|
1988
|
21
|
|
Gary Thurman
|
1989
|
16
|
Fred Lynn was 31-for-56 as a base runner before going 12-for-12 in 1980. Following his perfect season, Lynn was 31-for-62 through the rest of his career, an abysmal 50% success rate.
In the 1990’s, baseball saw a spike in perfect seasons:
|
1990's
|
|
|
|
John Jaha
|
1992
|
10
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
1994
|
20
|
|
Sean Berry
|
1994
|
14
|
|
Tim Raines
|
1994
|
13
|
|
Lee Tinsley
|
1994
|
13
|
|
Joe Carter
|
1994
|
11
|
|
Rex Hudler
|
1995
|
13
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
1995
|
12
|
|
Jim Eisenreich
|
1995
|
10
|
|
Albert Belle
|
1996
|
11
|
|
Terry Shumpert
|
1999
|
14
|
1994 was the season for perfect stolen base seasons: five players (Molitor, Sean Berry, Tim Raines, Lee Tinsley, and Joe Carter) posted perfect season. Of course, 1994 was a shortened season. It’s same to say that had the season been completed, a few players would have lost their perfect seasons.
It’s easy to forget that Joe Carter was an excellent base runner, but Carter stole 231 bases in 297 attempts, an excellent 78% success rate. He and Molitor were perfect teammates in 1994, stealing a combined 31 bases without getting caught for the Blue jays.
We’ve seen eleven perfect seasons in the Aught’s decade, including two by the great Carlos Beltran. The two best perfect seasons were posted by National Leaguers: Beltran’s 28 steals in 2004, and Utley’s 23 steals in 2009.
|
2000's
|
|
|
|
Carlos Beltran
|
2000
|
13
|
|
Desi Relaford
|
2000
|
13
|
|
Miguel Tejada
|
2003
|
10
|
|
David DeLucci
|
2003
|
12
|
|
Carlos Beltran
|
2004
|
28
|
|
Mark Teahen
|
2006
|
10
|
|
Michael Young
|
2008
|
10
|
|
Jason Bay
|
2008
|
10
|
|
Chase Utley
|
2009
|
23
|
|
Johnny Damon
|
2009
|
12
|
|
Alexi Castilla
|
2009
|
11
|
Jason Bay, who is not known as a fast runner, has posted a fine record in stolen base attempts. In his career he is 66-for-80, a remarkable 83% success rate. In 2005, he stole twenty-one bases for the Pirates, and was caught stealing just once. What’s worse, that caught-stealing happened on September 30th, the third-to-last day of the season. Bay didn’t just flirt with perfection in 2005: he came close to historic perfection.
Perfect Seasons
Thirty-four players have posted seasons of ten or more steals without getting thrown out. Some of those players have had perfect seasons amidst less-than-perfect careers: Johnny Bench and Kevin McReynolds weren’t elite base runners: they just had seasons that don’t quite fit with their career totals.
That said, what is surprising is how many of those thirty-four players did have terrific careers.
|
All-Stars
|
Non-All-Stars
|
|
Paul Molitor
|
Gary Thurman
|
|
Johnny Bench
|
Rex Hudler
|
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
Lee Tinsley
|
|
Tim Raines
|
Tom Tresh
|
|
Carlos Beltran
|
Leon Culberson
|
|
Fred Lynn
|
Alexi Castilla
|
|
Chase Utley
|
Tony Bernazard
|
|
Johnny Damon
|
Jesse Hill
|
|
Joe Carter
|
Mark Teahen
|
|
Michael Young
|
David DeLucci
|
|
Albert Belle
|
John Jaha
|
|
Miguel Tejada
|
Frank Duffy
|
|
Davey Lopes
|
Dan Myers
|
|
Jason Bay
|
Red Wilson
|
|
Kevin McReynolds
|
Terry Shumpert
|
|
|
Sean Berry
|
|
|
Desi Relaford
|
|
|
Miguel Dilone
|
|
|
Jim Eisenreich
|
Fifteen of the thirty-four players who posted perfect seasons on the base paths have played on All-Star teams, and most of those fifteen played in multiple All-Star games. Molitor, Bench, and Gehringer are Hall-of-Famers, and Raines and Freddie Lynn both have strong cases for the Hall. Beltran, Utley, and Damon are putting together near-HOF careers, while Albert Belle, Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, Jason Bay, and Davey Lopes all had terrific seasons.
Anyway, congratulation to Chase Utley on his 23-for-23 mark. He probably won’t win the National League Most Valuable Player award, but he put together a perfect 2009 season.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, IA. He welcomes questions, comments, and suggestions on how to get better umpires to call the ALDS here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.