A good week we had; a very good week.   In our predictions for last week we were 9-5—just one game better than the previous week, when we were 8-6—but it was a very good week because of what we were right about.

            Basically, last week I agreed with Las Vegas about all of the games except one, but I disagreed with the Vegas oddsmakers about four things:

            1)  I thought Denver would beat San Diego,

            2)  I didn’t see the New Orleans/Giants game as a close game.   I thought New Orleans would win; the bettors thought New Orleans would win, but most people saw it as a close game.   We didn’t; we had New Orleans winning easily.

            3)   The over/under on the Arizona/Seattle game was 47 points, which we thought was way too high.

            4)  The over/under on the Chicago/Atlanta game was 45.5 points, which we also thought was too high.

            And, on all four points where we separated from Vegas, we were absolutely right. . . in fact, in all four cases we should have gone further than we did.   We had Denver beating San Diego by 7; it was actually 11.   We had New Orleans beating the Giants by 15; it was actually 21.   We had the over/under on the Arizona/Seattle game at 41; it was actually 30.   We had the over/under on the Bears game at 41; it was actually 35.   

            As I’ve said repeatedly, I know nothing about football; that’s just what the numbers tell me.   These are our updated Power Ratings:

            The way the system works is, if Oakland moves up by 3 points, the team Oakland beats (Philadelphia) has to move down by 3 points. . .not EXACTLY, but generally.  The pull and push of a game is always equal, but there is also a constant re-evaluation of the games played before in the light of the new information, and those things also jiggle the rankings a little bit.  The biggest movers and shakers this week were the New England/Tennessee game, which moved New England up by 3.4 points and Tennessee down by 3.4, the Arizona/Seattle game (up 3.3 for Arizona, down 2.8 for Seattle), and the Philadelphia/Oakland game (up 1.9 for Oakland, down 2.3 for Philly.)  

            Current strength of schedule rankings:

            A remarkable thing about this week’s games.   There are 13 NFL games this week, of which we project that the road team will win 12:

            Obviously it is unlikely that the road teams will win all these games, but we didn’t forget to put in the Home Field Advantage; it’s just that the difference between the teams, in almost every case, is much larger than the Home Field Advantage.   

            Our system tends to see larger differences between teams than Las Vegas is willing to bet on.  I’m not suggesting Las Vegas is wrong; I’m just pointing out a systematic discrepancy.   We see lots of games in which one team is 20 points better than the other, sometimes 30.    If we see one team as being 20 points better than another, Las Vegas will make them a 10-point favorite.   If we see the game as being a 30-point difference, Las Vegas will see 14.  Our system is looking only at the games that have actually been played.   The voters—wisely and correctly, I suppose—factor in something else:  it’s a football game.   Once you kick the football, things happen.   If those things are random, it tends to balance the score.   The team that’s 30 points better going in sometimes loses. 

            Not saying Las Vegas is wrong, but. . .there’s that difference.    But last week we agreed with Las Vegas as to who would win 13 of the 14 games played.   This week is very different.   We get a different outcome from the oddsmakers for five games.   Let me repeat that;  We get a different outcome from the oddsmakers for five games this week.  Specifically: 

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San Francisco at Houston

            Las Vegas at this time has Houston as 3 or 3 and a half point favorite.   We have San Francisco as a five point favorite.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

            Las Vegas has Pittsburgh as a 4 point favorite.   We see Minnesota as winning it by 2.

Buffalo at Carolina

            Las Vegas has it Carolina by 7.   We have it Buffalo by 2.

Chicago at Cincinnati

            Las Vegas has it Cincinnati by 3.   We have it Chicago by 2.

Atlanta at Dallas

            Las Vegas has it Dallas by 3.   We have it Atlanta by 8. 

            This one is interesting.    We have Dallas as the most consistent team in the NFL this year, with output scores for their five games all between 99.7 and 102.6.  The thing is, we see them as being very consistent, but just not terribly good.   Basically, they’ve played like a .500 team every week.

            As we see it, the bettors are clinging to an illusion that Dallas is still a strong team, for which there is really no evidence in this season’s performance.   Atlanta, on the other hand, is a very good team; we have output scores for them ranging from 103.6 (for a narrow victory over Carolina) up to 126.0 (for a 45-10 pounding of San Francisco.)   As we see it, Atlanta has outplayed Dallas every week of this season, so why shouldn’t we expect them to this week?

            On the other hand, the bettors know that Dallas is coming off a bye week, and we don’t yet know what to do about that.    I’ve set up my data file to track how teams do coming off a bye week, but I don’t have enough data yet to draw any conclusion. . .let’s see what we have:

            So far, the eight teams coming off a bye week have outperformed their norms by an average of 2.25 points, although 5 of the 8 have actually under performed coming off the bye week.  The other three have over performed by enough to make up the difference.

            Well. . .two points doesn’t make Dallas equal to Atlanta in our book.   We’ll see.

            There are also five games this week on which we don’t see eye-to-eye with the moneyed men on the number of points to be scored.    San Diego at KC, Vegas sees 43 or 44 points; we see 48.    Indianapolis at St. Louis,  Las Vegas has 46 points being scored; we see only 39.    Chicago at Cincinnati, Las Vegas has 42 or 43 points being scored; we have only 38.  Atlanta at Dallas, the oddsmakers have 47 or 48 points being scored; we’re at 43.  

            So. . .if I was comparing myself to Las Vegas, which I’m not trying to do TOO much of, this would be a make-or-break week for me.    I doubt that there will be another week where I see five games and five scores significantly different from the experts.   Current temperatures for the teams: