Let me begin by acknowledging that we have had two straight weeks of very poor predictions, 6-7 each week, dropping us to 37-28 on the season.   I have nothing really to say about this, in that. . .you know, this is not about me.   It’s about the NFL.

            That aside, let me begin by putting on record all of the ratings that I figure in one big grisly chart:

            And then we’ll do comments game by game.  

Seattle at Arizona: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 17

          Arizona by my math is the weakest of the eight first-place teams (nine counting the tie in the AFC North.)    Seattle is not really a bad team.  Still, Arizona crushed the Seahawks in Seattle a few weeks ago.  

Atlanta at Carolina: Falcons 26, Panthers 17

Atlanta hasn’t played a game all year decided by less than 7 points.   They have lost decisively to three playoff teams (New England, New Orleans and Dallas) and have won all their other games by at least seven.  

Carolina is playing much better now than they were earlier in the season—their two best games are the last two--but honestly, New Orleans tried to give them the game last week and they wouldn’t take it.   To say that their game plans are unimaginative would be like saying that Warren Buffet is well set for retirement.    Some coaches would rather lose than do something unorthodox. 

Tampa Bay at Miami: Dolphins 37, Buck an Ears 16

            I’ve commented on it every week, but the strength of Miami’s schedule is just ridiculous.   Their season is basically gone, at 3-5, but they are in fact about the 8^th best team in the league, with a power rating of 106.9.   The average strength of their opponents is 108.3—66 points worse (tougher being worse) than the league average, and 38 points worse than any other team in the league.   Their schedule is a little bit soft the rest of the way, but nowhere near enough to bring them back to even, and anyway their season is gone.

            I keep trying to find a way to modify the “temperature” system so that it reflects wins and losses, rather than simply how well the team has played.   The Dolphins’ Game Output Scores have been above 100 (above average) every single game this year, so their “temperature” is high at 96 degrees.   But being a “hot team” is all about perception, rather than playing well, and when you lose, you’re not perceived as a hot team.    I keep looking for some way to modify the “temperature” system so that it reflects winning and losing, rather than just playing well, but so far I haven’t hit on the right process.  

Detroit at Minnesota: Vikings 38, Lions 16

            Minnesota has been the most consistent team in the league, their worst game being at Pittsburgh in Week 7 (lost 27-17, but Pittsburgh’s a good team and a 10-point loss on the road is hardly an embarrassment) and their best game being at Green Bay in Week 8 (won 38-26).   Playing at home for the first time in four weeks, coming off a bye week and facing the Lions, they figure to be in good shape, but you know, it is the Vikings and the Lions.  

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Steelers 19, Bengals 18

            Both teams are playing well now after starting the season looking kind of blah.    Cincinnati’s been a little better team, but Pittsburgh’s at home; my system sees it actually as 18-18, but Pittsburgh with the bigger 18. 

Tennessee at Buffalo: Bills 22, Titans 19

            One reason my prediction system has been screwy in recent weeks is that there are a lot of teams playing well now that didn’t play well early in the season.    Tennessee—starting out oh and six and taking a 59-0 pasting by New England—is the champion of that list; they’ve come off a bye week with two good wins.    But taking all eight games, we can’t reach the conclusion that they’re a good team, and Buffalo is the team coming off the bye week now. 

Denver at Washington: Bronchitis 20, Redskins 6

            The Redskins have played the league’s easiest schedule so far and haven’t done anything with it, and now the schedule turns against them.   They also appear to be playing a little better than they were early in the season, with game output scores in the 90s in three of the last four games after scores in the 80s the previous three weeks.

New Orleans at St. Louis: New Orleans 44, St. Louis 10

            The best team in the league against the worst.  The Saints remain the top-ranked team in the NFL and the top-ranked offense in the NFL by a ridiculous margin, but they clearly have not played at the same level the last couple of weeks that they had played previously.   Against Carolina they dug themselves an early grave and were very slow to crawl out of it.   It is fortunate that graves in New Orleans are above ground.  

Despite the upset of the mighty Lions a couple of weeks ago, the Rams appear to be still easily the worst team in the NFL, ranking at 79.9, or six points worse than Detroit.  Defensively there is not a huge difference between the two teams—New Orleans the league’s 16^th-best defense with a point contribution of 10.7, St. Louis the league’s 31^st best at 18.0—a seven-point differences between the defenses.   But offensively, New Orleans is the best team in the league, St. Louis the worst, and the difference between them is close to 30 points.  A win this week would definitively prove the league’s hoariest adage:  On any given Sunday. . … 

New York Jets at Jacksonville: Jets 28, Jags 7

            Jacksonville has been the least consistent team in the league, and the trend line is not good.   Their best game of the season was the season opener, a two-point loss at Indianapolis that scores at 110.2.   Their best three games were their first three games; they were 1-2 in those games, but they played three good teams (two on the road) and were outscored by 9 points.   Their worst three games have been their last three games.  They’re 2-1 in those three games, but it’s the Rams and Kansas City, and they barely beat both of them.  In Jacksonville. 

            Our “consistency rating” is simply 20 minus the standard deviation of your Game Output Scores.    The standard deviation of Jacksonville’s Game Output Scores is 9.6—hence, a consistency of 10.4.    

            Our system gives equal weight to each game; it doesn’t penalize the Jaguars for playing poorly lately.   But our system has reached the conclusion that the Jags, despite a 4-4 record, are a pretty bad team.   They’ve played a weak schedule (33 points below average) and have been outscored by 41 points.     

Kansas City at Oakland: Chiefs 16, Raiders 17

            The Chiefs will be trying to avenge the Raiders’ week-two win at Kansas City which turned the Chiefs’ season sour.    Even that early, it was apparent that the Chiefs were terrible, but that Oakland was living in some sort of reality TV show with broken cameras.    The Chiefs dominated the week-two game but then gave it away in the closing moments.  

            I have watched almost every Chiefs game, and I want to tell you:  They stink.   They’re dreadful.    And yet, my very careful analysis insists that they are not AS bad as Oakland; Oakland only should win it because of the home field, and the home field is a lame advantage when people stop caring about the team.   

            The Kansas City public is already growing impatient with Todd Haley and Scott Pioli, although everybody was cheered up a little to see them finally axe Larry Johnson.    Haley’s play calling—and I understand perfectly well that things are not as simple as they seem when you don’t know much about them—but Haley is one of those guys who will NOT stretch the defense until the game is virtually lost.    What seems obvious when you don’t actually know very much about it is that to open up the running game you have to make the linebackers honest, and to keep the linebackers honest you have to burn them at 25 to 30 yards early in the game.   But Haley is one of those annoying coaches who just INSISTS that he is going to establish the run first, so he burns up about four drives watching his running game get stuffed and throwing little dart passes on third and seven.   Then when he gets down about 24-3, he realizes he HAS to throw, and then you realize that they actually CAN throw.   Some of it’s an illusion of the score.   Late in the game, against the nickel and dime packages, they can protect the quarterback long enough to get off a heave; early in the game they can’t do that.   I guess.   They haven’t actually tried yet, but the coach obviously BELIEVES they can’t do it, so he refuses to try.

            At least they finally cut Larry Johnson, who was a great running back for a couple of years, years ago, and who has spent the last five years mouthing off and spitting on women in nightclubs, but who hasn’t broken a tackle since about the time Richard Gere last made a good movie.

Philadelphia at San Diego: Chargers 28, Eagles 27

            Both teams are 5-3, but Philadelphia has played a tougher schedule and has outscored their opponents by 66 points, vs. 27 for the Chargers.    The going line is that San Diego is playing better now, but that’s actually not true; they’ve just played two of the worst teams in the league, then pulled out a one-point win against an imploding Giants team.   All of that sounds like I’m going to pick Philadelphia, but the Eagles have their own issues.    They haven’t won a close game all year, with the arguable exception of the Monday night game in Washington; they either win by 25 or lose, and the last time they flew to the warm coast, they lost to Oakland.  

New England at Indianapolis: Patriots 21, Colts 18

            New England, having won their last three games by a combined score of 121 to 24, now ranks as the hottest team in the league and the best team in the AFC, having taken those rankings away from New Orleans and Indianapolis, respectively.   Indianapolis doesn’t bear ANY resemblance to a team that would go 16-0, and they’ll have to play a lot better than they have the last two weeks to avoid their first loss. 

Chicago at San Francisco: 49ers 25, Bears 21

            A matchup of two teams of similar quality, both of which have been up and down all year.   The Bears in their last two weeks have had a blowout win and a blowout loss.    San Francisco looked like a good team early in the season, but then lost three straight games to good teams and took one on the chin from Tampa Bay.   Basically, I have no idea what will happen in this game, wouldn’t be surprised if either team won by 30, and the prediction just really comes down to the home field advantage.  

Baltimore at Cleveland: Ravens 29, Browns 10

            Why exactly is this game on Monday night?   I still like the Ravens, but at this point it’s going to take the Ghost of Pete Rozelle to get them into the playoffs. 

Dallas at Green Bay: Cheerleaders 27, Cheeseheads 23

            Dallas has a better offense and a better defense.   Green Bay has Lambeau.