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Undervaluing the DH Role

December 3, 2009

No, this isn't a rant trying to advocate Edgar Martinez for the Hall of Fame.

The scuttlebutt around the New York Yankees since the end of the season has focused squarely on the futures of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.  It's interesting, almost comical really, to think that there is any question about whether the Yankees should pay for the continued services of these aging players.  I, myself, was advocating the quick jettison of both of them previous to the 2008 season and, while Damon happily proved me wrong, Matsui suffered knee problems that limited him to 93 games.

The problem with both players is that they're old by baseball standards.  Both men will be aged 36 for the 2010 season, neither has the legs nor the arm to be effective in the outfield, and both carry the possibility of receiving multi-year offers from other teams.

At least, that's how it's been perceived in the past.  Last winter opened many eyes around baseball as players and teams alike tried to navigated the turbulent waters surrounding arbitration.  The Yankees were widely questioned for not offering Bobby Abreu arbitration, which would have given them another first round pick should he sign with another team.  As the market shook out and Abreu's value plummeted, the Yankees began to look smarter and smarter for not leaving Abreu open to a $15 million arbitration award when the market earned him just a one year contract at $5 million.

It shouldn't be that shocking, then, that the Yankees have repeated this approach, deciding not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte.  In Matsui's case, the decision was a no brainer: Matsui is neither a type A or B free agent, leaving the Yankees no compensation should he sign elsewhere.  The better gamble is to risk signing him under agreeable terms than to leave the dollars to a third party.

Andy Pettitte is just Andy Pettitte.  The pattern has been established that Pettitte will deliberate and waffle over whether he wants to play, claim it's not about the money, complain about the money, then sign for less guaranteed than he did the previous year.  Last winter, it worked out for everyone as Pettitte signed for a guaranteed $5 million after having arm problems down the stretch, but reach almost of his $5 million in incentives, reaching the $10 million price tag he asked for in the first place.

Damon, however, is a type A free agent coming off the best season of his career with a salary of $13 million.  A quick read of the market, even by Scott Boras, could determine that Damon stands little chance of matching $13 million next season and certainly not for multiple seasons.  An arbitration hearing could earn Damon a raise, possibly bringing him to $14 or $15 million which would be well above market value and even above his theoretical value for the 2009 season.

The question that remains is whether the Yankees should sign Matsui and/or Damon or none of the above.  The theory floated out there in September argued that the Yankees couldn't possibly carry both players again.  Matsui has no ability to t play the outfield anymore and Damon is such a bad outfielder that he probably shouldn't play the outfield anymore.  Essentially, they cancel each other out as being older, poor fielding players on the cusp of decline, exactly the kind of player you don't need two of on your roster.

This theory has only been bolstered by another concept: the designated hitter by committee.  As the Yankees start to get a bit older, especially in the case of catcher Jorge Posada and to a lesser degree Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the call has come for more rest.  To keep their bats in the lineup, one of the elders could get a half day off and DH rather than ride the bench.  Since the DH role would be filled mostly by position players, the theory goes, there would be little need for a player like Hideki Matsui.

This is a ridiculously flawed concept to me.  From a sheer strategical standpoint, it makes little sense to have Jorge Posada DH while the backup catcher is behind the plate, unless you carry a third catcher.  That seems like a waste of a roster spot for the small percentage of games that Posada would actually DH, assuming that he will have off days where he doesn't hit.

From a mathematical standpoint, the amount of needed days off by those players does not amount to a full-time designated hitter.

Alex Rodriguez missed the first 28 games last season and finished the year having played in 124 games.  That means outside of his time on the DL, ARod missed 10 games.  And remember, he missed ten games after having hip surgery that was supposed to require consistent rest throughout the season, rest he rarely took.  Assuming a healthier ARod for 2010, it's reasonable to think he will play in roughly 145-150 games.

Jorge Posada missed 22 games in May of 2009 with leg problems.  He went on to catch 96 games, which means he may have caught another 16 games had he stayed healthy.  Let's say Posada would have caught 112 games, leaving 50 to be accounted for.

Derek Jeter played 153 games in 2009.  He played 150 in 2008 and 156 in 2007.  In fact, he's averaged 151 games a season since becoming a full-time player.  If Derek Jeter is healthy in 2010, I'd be willing to bet he's going to play at least 150 games again.

Between these three players, we've found about 79 games that we can reasonably expect them not to be playing the field and possibly slot into the designated hitter's role.  That leaves 83 games to account for, just over half a season.

Filling those 83 games at DH requires one of two solutions: drop a bench player into the DH slot or put that bench player in the field and put a position player at DH.  The Yankees bench in 2009, not including Hideki Matsui, had a .305 on-base percentage.  They had a .364 slugging percentage.

Hideki Matsui had a .367 on-base percentage and a .509 slugging percentage.  Despite being a left-hander, Matsui posted great numbers against lefties:

Split G PA H 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP BAbip sOPS+
vs RHP as LH 126 378 88 16 1 15 .271 .370 .465 .835 151 3 .281 115
vs LHP as LH 75 148 37 5 0 13 .282 .358 .618 .976 81 1 .253 173

It may seem unreasonable to expect Matsui to hit as well against lefties in 2010 but considering his low BAbip, there is every reason to think he will not suffer a big drop off.  There is the outside possibility he could hit even better.

The difference in offense between Hideki Matsui and the Yankee bench in 2009 is considerable.  If the Yankees do not re-sign Matsui for 2010, where do they pick up that offense?  Where are the Yankees going to find a power hitting backup catcher or infielder that can replicate the type of offense that Matsui has provided?

Obviously, they're not because any player providing that type of offense at those positions won't be riding the pines while making backup wages.

Given the caliber of the Yankees lineup, residing in the American League where pinch hitting has less need, the Yankees shouldn't be wasting a position devoted solely to hitting on backup players.  By not re-signing Matsui, the Yankees would be conceding at least one spot in their lineup each game, whether it be to rest ARod and play a Jerry Hairston, Jr. type or their everyday lineup which likely wouldn't have a league average or above bat at designated hitter.

These leads to the inevitable question about who should be re-signed, Matsui or Damon.  In my mind, I think there is room for both given short term contracts.  I wouldn't want to sign either player for more than two years, preferably a year with an option if possible.  The Yankees could live with Damon's defense in left for another season rather than go out and overpay for a guy like Matt Holliday.  Holliday is good, but I think he will be overpaid with too many years for a guy turning 30.  The Yankees have Austin Jackson possibly coming up by 2011, which could solidify centerfield and possibly move Melky to right.  I don't think Melky is the long-term option there, but it would give the Yankees another season to pinpoint how they can buildup their outfield.

Committing short term to two players who should perform about their career average for the next season makes sense given that there are few outfielders available that are both good at the plate and with the glove.

 
 

COMMENTS (19 Comments, most recent shown first)

ScottHam
Hey ventboys,
Thanks for reading.

Posada's arm looked terrible in the spring but looked like it improved by the end of the year. He's never been a great defensive catcher and once his arm is dead, he had no defensive value as you suggested. I'm not sure it's dead yet. I also can't blame the Yankees for trying to deposit as much offense at the position as possible. They've dealt with his defense this long so another season probably won't kill them, albeit in less games.
11:20 PM Dec 8th
 
ventboys
Interesting discussion. I just have a couple of things....

Bay is actually a pretty good fielder, who had a terrific year in the field this year. Holliday, despite the embarrasing drop in the playoffs, is also a good fielder.

I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Holliday if I am Boston. He hits righthanded pitching well, he hits ground ball pitchers well, and he hits the ball to all fields about equally while being absolutely devastating when he pulls the ball (.496 with a .748 slugging percentage in 2009). He turns 30 next month and he is roughly a .310-.390-.520 hitter in neutral parks.

Also, Posada really can't throw anymore. It might make more sense to find a catcher that can play defense and maybe hit some as a lefty bat, use Posada instead of resigning Matsui for those games where they need a DH, and give him a couple of games a week behind the plate.
11:41 PM Dec 7th
 
ScottHam
Evan,
One other thought regarding the Yankees injuries in 2009:

Losing Wang was definitely not good, but he was an area where the Yankees had depth. Wang was out for the year, pitched horribly for a month, and they still won 103 games. If ARod was down for the year rather than a month, or any of their position players outside of Nady or Melky/Gardner went down, they would have had issues.

Wang's injury was bad, but because he was a pitcher they were able to deal with it better. I still think Hughes was mismanaged a bit and should have been kept ready for the rotation but it's hard to argue when everyone is fawning over the setup guy. He would have been preferable in the rotation to Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin. And even then, like I said, they won 103 games. Hard to complain.

I'm out of town for four days. I'll be checking in but it was good talking with you and Richie about all of this. I'm working on a followup which will hopefully be up towards the end of next week.

Thanks for taking the time to read and write.
10:38 PM Dec 4th
 
ScottHam
With a guy like Martinez, and most players including Holliday, it's about the years. A team like the Red Sox can deal with a bad contract for a season. A bad contract for five seasons can be a noose. Martinez at the right terms would be fine to keep around. I don't know if he's the every day catcher they would like, but his flexibility helps.

I think Bay will go cheaper than people believe and, even with his bad defense, may not be bad for three seasons. I wouldn't overpay for him. Ditto Holliday.

I think Poppi, Lowell, and Varitek are on their last legs. I was shocked the Sox gave Varitek and option year. Shocked. He was smart to pick it up, too.

I think Phillie has to lock up Lee. He's only really had two good to great seasons and will probably be overpaid but what choice do they have? When Pedro Martinez is pitching in the World Series for you after being with the club for two months, you need all the pitching you can get.

My minimal understanding of the Rays farm system is that more pitching is coming, which is why they were so willing to save money and dump Kazmir. I think Crawford is important for the franchise in keeping their identity in tact. He's a good hitter who has benefited defensively by going to left field. The only thing Upton has on him is that he plays a good centerfield. I hear a lot of complaints about Upton's makeup but I have no idea if they're true.

If I'm the Dodgers, I tread lightly with Manny. Despite a "down" year, Manny was still pretty effective. He'll probably make the decision for them and follow the dollar. If the Dodgers can get Halladay, they should. I don't know if they have the pieces, though.

Figgins is supposedly going to the Mariners. I think the bloom will come of that rose sooner than later. I think four years is too much but $9 mill three years from now may not be so bad.

Not sure why the Angels aren't trying that hard to bring Lackey back but that should probably be a sign to anyone else thinking about him. They know him best, after all. I think Fuentes will rebound a bit. Coming off of K-Rod he didn't look that great but then I think K-Rod's record year was a little overblown.
9:57 PM Dec 4th
 
evanecurb
Agree 100%. They are interesting to ponder for not only the Yankees but for the other contending teams as well. Some of the questions looming for contenders other than the Yankees:

Boston: Do you commit to Victor Martinez for the long term? What do you do with Big Papi? (dump him like a hot potato) Assuming Jason Bay is actually gone for good (and who knows?), how do your replace that production in the lineup? (Holliday probably ain't the answer).
Is it finally time to let Lowell and Varitek go their merry way? (depends on what price/roles they will accept) How do you REALLY feel about your starting rotation after Lester and Beckett? (probably not great unless Dice K is a lot healthier than I suspect)

Philadelphia: Pitching, pitching, pitching -- Hamels, Lidge, Myers - question marksa all. What are the long term consequences of signing Lee to a long term deal? You probably feel like you have to do it, right? But will you regret it two years from now?

Tampa: Carl Crawford's value is at an all time high based on his 2009 production. Upton's may be at an all time low. What do you do? (Trade Crawford; hope Upton has a good start then trade him midseason). What in the world happened to all those pitchers and what to do about it? (Keep the pitchers and get a new pitching coach)

LAD: How do you feel about Manny in 2010, and what can you really do if the answer is "Not great" Do we need to get into the Halladay sweepstakes? (he sure would help in the postseason) Can we afford to? (no)

LAA: How much is Figgins really worth to us? (probably less than he thinks he is but worth more to you than anyone else) What's the deal with Brian Fuentes? (He may start to stink pretty badly this year; just a hunch). Do we enter the Halladay sweepstakes? (yes)
3:58 PM Dec 4th
 
ScottHam
Evan,
Thanks for putting a little perspective on the subject. I don't think the Yankees draw much sympathy for how to effectively manage a DH and bench players, as you said. I feel as well, though, that it does tap into the greater topics of roster management and how to handle the elderly.

It would be a bit more cut and dry if Jeter and ARod would simply deteriorate like they're supposed to. We'd all feel a lot smarter and the rest of the league will probably be happier when not inundated by Jeterian hyperbole.

I don't expect any sympathy for the Yankees issues. I just think they're interesting.
3:40 PM Dec 4th
 
evanecurb
To Richie - I have been waiting for Rivera, Jeter, and Posada to get old and for their production to drop for several years now. I think I may have forgotten that possibility. Thanks for reminding me that it is going to happen, someday. At least Pettitte has finally starterd to show some signs of his age....

I don't think the Yankees had a particularly lucky season in terms of injuries in 2009. I just think it looked great compared to their unlucky 2008. In 2009, was A Rod out for the first month and Wang was either out or too injured to be effective for the entire season. Matsui and Damon both seemed to be limping around a lot, even though they both played well. I might expect a few more injuries in an average season, but losing Wang for essentially the whole year is a pretty big deal.

I was becoming engaged in this discussion, because it actually is pretty interesting. Then I started thinking about some of the questions that my team, the Orioles, are dealing with this offseason, and all of a sudden I became very very jealous (again) of the Yankees and their fans. The Orioles two big questions (each of which has about ten follow up questions) are:

1. How do we plug the gaping holes in our everyday lineup (third base and first base)?
2. How do we find SOMEBODY who can pitch at the major league level?

Once we have answers to those two, we can start working on things like how many DH at bats to give to starters on their day of rest, how to strengthen the bench, and how to upgrade the starting lineup to be competitive with the two teams in our division we have to play 36 times a year (combined) and against whom we are something like 20-88 the last three years. (Remember, the Orioles' schedule is much tougher than that of either the Yankees or Red Sox - The O's have zero games against Baltimore; the Yankees have zero games against themselves. It's like the difference between an NCAA football team playing USC instead of UC Santa Cruz).

But the Matsui DH stuff is interesting as a hypothetical exercise in how to manage resources.

Good thing I'm not bitter about any of this.

Remember Earl Weaver? Now that was a team.......


3:07 PM Dec 4th
 
ScottHam
Richie,
I don't think it's just a matter of plugging OPS numbers into a slot, but the fact is that there is a great disparity between what Hideki Matsui can provide and what a role player could provide. Even if you devoted 100 games to regulars playing in the DH spot, you would still have 60 games where you field a much poorer hitter than you would have to.

My thinking is that you can use the DH role to keep those guys in the lineup on offdays but still try and maximize the position the rest of the time. There's no reason you can't do both while still rotating two outfield positions between Melky, Gardner, and Swisher and getting the backup infielders some innings.

Example A is the 2009 season. Matsui started 142 games at DH. Another year in age for the entire team could mean they'll need Matsui to start 100 games at DH and give those games to other players.

As you stated, we're talking about the Yankees here so obviously money is less of a consideration. Most teams probably wouldn't shell out possibly $8 or $10 million for a DH that they don't anticipate 145 games from. That's a luxury the Yankees and only a few other teams have.

Regarding your previous thought that no one is following Bill James' premise for players these ages, he has projected Damon to play 6 more games at 149 in 2010, ARod to play 145, Jeter 156, Matsui 139, and five more for Posada at 116. He figures a drop in runs created between the five of 9.9, which accounts for 21 more games and better slash stats from ARod.

Bill's projections call for a decline in four of the five players, with Damon and Jeter taking the biggest hits because of their career seasons in 2009. I think given the numbers Bill projected, it's reasonable to think that Matsui could work in that lineup without having a negative impact on the players around him.
1:52 PM Dec 4th
 
Richie
If you want to rest your regulars more and play your bench players more, an open DH slot helps you do that. Especially especially for Posada, but for all of them.

Were I Yankee GM, yes I would resign Damon or Matsui. And if it wound up being Matsui, yeah, then I'd have an everyday DH. One of the tradeoffs of which would be getting fewer ABs from Rodriguez/Jeter/Posada/any other regular who gets banged up some. And/or more fatigued games from those guys. It's not just a matter of plugging OPS numbers into a slot, then pretending there are no spinoff effects from that.

An open DH slot is good for the bench, also for those regulars with a good enough bat to slide into there on occasion. Where money is no option, I'd usually spend for a DH bat, too. But it's not just a matter of comparing OPSs as if this is a game played off of the back of baseball cards.
12:10 PM Dec 4th
 
ScottHam
Richie,
I certainly expect some decline from most if not all of the five players in question. I thought Matsui and Damon were going to fall off a cliff two years ago. I wrote an article for Peter Abraham last winter warning about the sink hole that will be Derek Jeter's next contract. I don't expect everyone to have career years next season. Quite the opposite.

But that's part of the reason why it makes little sense to me to just let a bat like Matsui go. There isn't much available to replace his production, even with his age. He certainly runs the risk of injury at his age as he experienced in 2008, but he seemed to benefit greatly from not playing the field this year and I think he is a risk worth taking on a year to year basis.

The alternative is to guarantee less production from the DH spot for a good number of games. There's little chance of coming close to Matsui's production if he is not replaced with a player capable of doing it.

That isn't to say that the other players shouldn't be rested more regularly or that bench players shouldn't be kept fresh. However, one of my gripes with Joe Girardi was his unwillingness to give ARod the doctor recommended rest he was supposed to receive last season. The Yankee brass convened with ARod and without Girardi in order to address the issue. Girardi has shown that he will play his starters as much as he can. I would prefer Cashman step in and adjust that philosophy rather than let Joe run amok, but given that, I would prefer that a stronger bat be in the DH role.

There will be decline. There will be injuries and really, the 2009 Yankees had a perfect storm of career years and general good health despite ARod missing April. That is unlikely to happen again.

All the more reason to keep as many good bats as you can.

The other question is, if not Matsui and Damon, then who? I don't want the Yankees to get Holliday because I think he'll be overpaid and really, enough is enough with the big contracts. Who are they going to bring that's going to come close to their production? If they're going to bring in veterans on one or two year deals, I'd rather they stick with who they have.
11:05 PM Dec 3rd
 
Richie
Given all the $$$ the Yankees have, I myself would support re-signing Matsui or Damon (not both, tho'). But I feel some of the analysis is pretty shoddy here. First, expecting a similar level of health and production from 5 pretty old ballplayers. Second, seeing no value in semi-resting those older players and no harm from letting your bench players' bats rot.
10:40 PM Dec 3rd
 
Richie
The whole point about leaving the DH spot open is so that the geezers CAN stay healthy and give you as many ABs as last year, or close to. Regarding Posada particularly, yes, running the bases twice a game is nada zilch zero cero nothing compared to catching 8-9 innings.

It's interesting. You guys are all familiar with BillJ's work. Here we have 5 ballplayers well into their 30s, two of them injury-prone, 4 of the 5 who played far better last year than they had the year or two or three before. And it sounds like you're expecting them to pretty much do next year what they did this one. All BillJ's earliest research from way back suggests that they, as a group, are likely to fall off big-time.

I don't know what the value is of using the DH spot to give a bench guy some ABs so as to stay sharper, or give Posada a major rest, or Jeter or Rodgiguez a still-significant one. You guys appear to argue that it's value is negligible. Why do you think so? If not, what value do you put on it, and why?
10:34 PM Dec 3rd
 
ScottHam
J. and Evan,
Agreed about short contracts and relative need.

Evan, Abreu re-signed with Anaheim for two years $19 million.
10:04 PM Dec 3rd
 
evanecurb
The fact that Posada, A Rod and Jeter are all getting older and more susceptible to injury would seem to argue in favor of signing Matsui and Damon. They'll need the offense.

Any chance they'll sign Abreu? Or did he already re-sign with LAA?
9:02 PM Dec 3rd
 
elricsi
Also, it seems to be that being able to hit as a DH is a skill that not all players have. Check Reggie Jackson, Jason Giabmi and Frank Thomas' lifetime splits. If you have a player who has proven he can handle hitting and sitting, then that is what you need. Sign Matsui to a one year deal. Offer Damon a 2 year deal and if Boras find some sucker to give him more years, then so long.
6:27 PM Dec 3rd
 
ScottHam
Word is that Cashman is trying to lower payroll a bit. I'll believe it when I see it, but they actually were a bit lower in 2009 than in 2008.

I with Matsui and Damon, the only way either gets signed is for short term and less dollars. I don't think Cashman would give Matsui more than a year and probably would want some incentives a la Pettitte's deal last year.

Damon could probably get two years but not at $13 million per. Abreu's 2 year $19 mill would probably be the benchmark with the Yankees adding the extra million to make it 20. And obviously, Cashman would go less if he could.

Those two players would be good short term solutions for possibly $8 million less than last year. Replace Molina with Cervelli and they've knocked about $10 million off.

I don't think Cashman will use that extra money to make a big deal. I don't think Halladay is coming to the Yankees. It goes against everything Cashman has been trying to build and would set their system back two years at least. Plus, I think if he planned on spending that much more on pitching, he would have gone seriously after Santana even with CC in the future.

So yes, the Yankees obviously have operated way above the rest of the league and that's not about to change anytime soon. I think you will see them start to play the bargain game with older veterans and not over-commit unless it's a homegrown hero like Jeter or Posada.
6:24 PM Dec 3rd
 
Trailbzr
Any team but the Yankees would start with this question "Can we compete for one more championship with this talent base; or is it time to trade/unsign these stars for rebuilding blocks?" If the former, you'd pay what you must; if not, let them all go.

The signing of Rodriquez in 2004 sent me the message that the sport had returned to the economics of the 30-50s when the rich teams would sign all the good talent and stash it in the minors just to keep the other teams from getting it. Now, a sufficiently good player can command a salary only the Yankees can pay long-term, even if they have to play a guy out of position to do it.

The Yankees ability to pay $5 million for each marginal win above replacement value distorts the whole sport.

5:52 PM Dec 3rd
 
ScottHam
Posada could catch 112 games. He very well could not. I would think 100 - 112 would be within his range. The question is, if he shouldn't be catching 112 games, should he be running the bases on his days off? If he's that brittle, maybe DHing isn't the greatest of off day routines.

If Jeter and ARod aren't healthy, having a strong bat at DH will be that much more important. If one of them goes down for a period of time and Ramiro Pena or Jerry Hairston are in the lineup every day, they'll need whatever production they can get to makeup that difference.

I don't expect everyone to stay healthy, but I do think ARod and Jeter are a good bet for 145 - 150 games. They can still take days at DH if needed but there's no reason to waste the games when they don't on Brett Gardner or a backup infielder when Hideki Matsui is available. If the games needed shifts, so be it, but I don't see any reason to not fill that DH position with a good player when you have a chance.

BTW - did you cite age to me as a factor than suggest 41 year old Matt Stairs? ;-)
3:35 PM Dec 3rd
 
Richie
You really think Posada will catch 112 games?

IF Jeter is healthy. ASSUMING a healthier Rodriguez.

Oh, and then assuming Matsui and/or Damon hit so well again.

Scott, you're betting on 5 old ballplayers all to stay healthy (3 of them playing the field on a regular basis; 4, if Damon is in left) and productive. This is very bad mathematics.

Sign a left-handed platoon hitter - a Matt Stairs, or someone like that - then when a lefty starts, toss Posada, Jeter or Rodriguez into the DH slot.

Of course, the Yankee$ can try it however they want, then fix it with $$$ come July if it doesn't work.
3:09 PM Dec 3rd
 
 
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