|
Name
|
2010 Vote %
|
Number of Votes
|
|
Roberto Alomar
|
93%
|
56
|
|
Barry Larkin
|
90%
|
54
|
|
Mark McGwire
|
85%
|
51
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
50%
|
30
|
|
Lee Smith
|
35%
|
21
|
|
Dale Murphy
|
27%
|
16
|
|
Andre Dawson
|
25%
|
15
|
|
Fred McGriff
|
18%
|
11
|
|
Dave Parker
|
15%
|
9
|
|
Don Mattingly
|
12%
|
7
|
|
Jack Morris
|
10%
|
6
|
|
Harold Baines
|
7%
|
4
|
|
Kevin Appier
|
3%
|
2
|
|
Andres Galarraga
|
3%
|
2
|
|
Robin Ventura
|
2%
|
1
|
|
Ellis Burks
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Pat Hentgen
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Mike Jackson
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Eric Karros
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Ray Lankford
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Shane Reynolds
|
0%
|
0
|
|
David Segui
|
0%
|
0
|
|
Todd Zeile
|
0%
|
0
|
Congratulations Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, and Mark McGwire: the readers of the Bill James Online consider you deserving candidates for the Hall of Fame.
The Results
Roberto Alomar – 93% - Alomar received the second highest total in the (brief) history of this little project, netting 93% percent of the vote. As we’ll get to a little later on, Alomar narrowly missed being elected by the BBWAA. There were sixty ballots cast, and Alomar was kept off just four of those ballots.
Barry Larkin – 90% - In the BBWAA ballot, Roberto Alomar received 73.7% of the vote, while Barry Larkin received just 51.6%. Apparently the real HOF voters picked up on a crucial difference between Alomar and Larkin, one that the BJOL Readers missed.
|
|
Games
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
Win Shares
|
|
Alomar
|
2379
|
.300
|
.371
|
.443
|
116
|
377
|
|
Larkin
|
2180
|
.295
|
.371
|
.444
|
116
|
347
|
Mark McGwire – 85% - Last year McGwire landed on 60% of the ballots cast….he jumped up to 85% this year, and has now crossed the 75% threshold. Congrats to the greatest homerun hitter in baseball history.
Edgar Martinez – 50% - Edgar appeared on half the ballots cast by BJOL readers, which is exciting because we’ll have a chance to discuss him again next year. For what it’s worth, Martinez finished ahead of Tim Raines on the BBWAA ballot, netting 36.2% of the votes. That’s a good total for one’s first year on the ballot…I was surprised by how well he did with the BBWAA.
Lee Smith – 35% - Smith moved from 14% last year to 35% this year, suggesting that BJOL are coming around on his candidacy for the Hall.
Dale Murphy – 27% - Up from 17% last year, the BJOL readers are now giving a higher percentage of votes to Murphy than the BBWAA. I’m glad about that: he’s a borderline candidate, but he deserves more love from the real voters, who give him about 11% of their votes every year.
Andre Dawson – 25% - Dawson is relatively unchanged from last year....21% to 25%.
Here’s an interesting aside: a big chunk of Dawson’s votes came on the last ballots that I counted. Sixty people voted overall, and fifteen of those sixty voted for Dawson. Oddly, six of the last ten ballots cast listed Dawson (60%), but only nine of the first fifty ballots cast (18%) voted for him. Apparently the fact that he is a Hall-of-Famer made the BJOL readers give him a second look.
Fred McGriff – 18% - The Crime Dog did about as well with BJOL voters as he did with the BBWAA.
Dave Parker – 15% - Parker went from 5% of the BJOL vote to 15%, a nice jump in the numbers. I meant to get an article out on the Cobra, but moving and the holidays got in the way. Sorry, Dave Parker…I’ll get to you next year.
Don Mattingly – 12% - Treading water…10%, 12%....no one has really made a case for Donnie Baseball. Next year.
Jack Morris – 10% - Morris received 52.3% of the BBWAA vote, but just 10% of the BJOL vote. It was nice to see Blyleven way out ahead of him.
Harold Baines – 7% - Baines stays on the ballot…same as last year.
Kevin Appier – 3% - A few people made some interesting comments about Appier: for those who did vote for him, could you please explain the rest of us as to why you voted for him? I don’t mean that as a criticism: I’m assuming that there’s something about Appier that most of us missed.
Andres Galarraga – 3% - Sorry to see him drop off the ballot. A few people made some passionate arguments for the Cat.
Robin Ventura – 2% - Very sorry to see him drop off the ballot….he’s an interesting candidate.
Ellis Burks, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, and Todd Zeile – 0%. Sorry guys.
BJOL VS. BBWAA
Our results, next to their results….
|
|
BBWAA %
|
BJOL %
|
|
Andre Dawson
|
78%
|
25%
|
|
Roberto Alomar
|
74%
|
93%
|
|
Jack Morris
|
52%
|
10%
|
|
Barry Larkin
|
52%
|
90%
|
|
Lee Smith
|
47%
|
35%
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
36%
|
50%
|
|
Mark McGwire
|
24%
|
85%
|
|
Fred McGriff
|
22%
|
18%
|
|
Don Mattingly
|
16%
|
12%
|
|
Dave Parker
|
15%
|
15%
|
|
Dale Murphy
|
12%
|
27%
|
|
Harold Baines
|
6%
|
7%
|
|
Andres Galarraga
|
4%
|
3%
|
|
Robin Ventura
|
1%
|
2%
|
|
Ellis Burks
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Eric Karros
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Kevin Appier
|
0%
|
3%
|
|
Pat Hentgen
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
David Segui
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Mike Jackson
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Ray Lankford
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Shane Reynolds
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Todd Zeile
|
0%
|
0%
|
There’s a lot of agreement: the BBWAA and the BJOL readers have similar voting percentages in regards to McGriff, Mattingly, Parker, Baines, Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Segui, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, and Zeile.
However, eight players had a considerable gap in percentages between the two voting groups. Let’s look at those guys.
Conventional Crankers (Players favored by the BBWAA Vote)
|
Name
|
BBWAA%
|
BJOL%
|
Difference
|
|
Andre Dawson
|
78
|
25
|
53
|
|
Jack Morris
|
52
|
10
|
42
|
|
Lee Smith
|
47
|
35
|
12
|
Andre Dawson, baseball’s newest Hall-of-Famer, tops the list of players favored by the BBWAA. Dawson is actually a more interesting player than Jim Rice: one of the best players of the early 1980’s, the Hawk was a fine defensive outfielder and a terrific base runner for those old Expo teams. That said, he had a terrible on-base percentage, was one of the worst MVP selections ever, and padded his numbers by playing in Wrigley, a terrific hitter's park.
As for Morris…well, Morris has always been one of the guys who represent the divide between conventional wisdoms and newer, more objective approaches to understanding baseball. It’s not surprising he’s listed here.
Is it just me, or is Mike Mussina a little bit like Jack Morris? Think about it: both Morris and Mussina established themselves as the workhorse aces for decent teams, before moving around to contenders in their later years. Both pitchers posted impressive career numbers, but neither pitcher was ever believed to be the best in their league. Neither pitcher won a Cy Young. Both pitchers would win around 15-18 games a year, rarely toping twenty, and neither of them reached 300 wins. Both of them are white guys with classic American first-names and M-last names.
Here’s the weird thing, though: conventional guys love Morris, but my perception is that they’re generally ambivalent about Mussina. To me, Moose seems a slam-dunk Hall-of-Famer: he is way above the bar, wherever you choose set it, and head-and-shoulders above Jack Morris. He really doesn’t compare to Morris, my previous paragraph aside. But amid the conventional thinkers, Mussina is talked about in exactly the same way Morris is.
It’s the sabermetricians who are on the Mussina bandwagon; who recognize Mussina’ career for what it was: a Hall-of-Fame career.
Anyway…got sidetracked there.
Lee Smith: I think those of us who read and contribute to the BJOL community had an innate skepticism about closers. And I think that’s just fine. He’ll get into the Hall before we elect him, but I think he’ll get there with us, too.
Now to the players we appreciate.
Sabermetric Studs (Players favored by the BJOL Vote)
|
Name
|
BBWAA%
|
BJOL%
|
Difference
|
|
Mark McGwire
|
24
|
85
|
61
|
|
Barry Larkin
|
52
|
90
|
38
|
|
Roberto Alomar
|
74
|
93
|
19
|
|
Dale Murphy
|
12
|
27
|
15
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
36
|
50
|
14
|
McGwire again has much more support among BJOL readers than among BBWAA voters. I think that the BJOL readers are ahead of the curve on this one: McGwire’s recent confession will go a long way towards getting him into the Hall.
Larkin and Alomar are the new answers to the question “Who is the best eligible shortstop or second baseman not in the Hall of Fame?” They’ll get in, as they obviously should.
Dale Murphy moved from 17% of the BJOL vote last year to 27% this year, which is nice to see. Lastly, the BJOL readers are a little more willing to give Edgar Martinez his due consideration than the BBWAA.
Trends From Last Year to This Year
Who is getting more votes? Who is getting less?
|
Name
|
2009 BJOL
|
2010 BJOL
|
Trend
|
|
Mark McGwire
|
64%
|
85%
|
+21
|
|
Lee Smith
|
14%
|
35%
|
+21
|
|
Dale Murphy
|
17%
|
27%
|
+10
|
|
Dave Parker
|
5%
|
15%
|
+10
|
|
Andre Dawson
|
21%
|
25%
|
+4
|
|
Don Mattingly
|
10%
|
12%
|
+2
|
|
Harold Baines
|
5%
|
7%
|
+2
|
|
Jack Morris
|
10%
|
10%
|
-
|
Amazing, no player who appeared on last year’s ballot lost ground. McGwire and Lee Smith gained the most ground, with each player jumping 21 percentage points. Dale Murphy and Dave Parker also took a double-digit jump, while Dawson, Mattingly, and Baines had negligible gains. Jack Morris stayed right where he was.
The Future
What’s the purpose of all of this? Where are we going with it?
Well, first and foremost, I think it’s fun to talk about the Hall of Fame. I enjoy debating about Dale Murphy and Andre Dawson. And I enjoy voting: I take a fair bit of time thinking about my fake ballot. I hope you enjoy the discussions, too. I hope you liked voting.
Second, I think it’s nice to have something that represents the thinking of our community of baseball fans. The BJOL readers would put Tim Raines in the Hall of Fame. We’d put Mark McGwire in, too. Same goes for Bert Blyleven, Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar. This process gives us some degree of identity: we like Larkin and Bert Blyleven. We’re not so keen on Jack Morris or Andre Dawson.
Third: our collective opinion might someday do a small bit to change the overall conversation: that BJOL readers think Tim Raines is a Hall-of-Famer might someday help his candidacy for the actual Hall of Fame. Maybe. Someday.
So where are we going?
A few folks asked why Blyleven wasn’t again on the table. Or Trammell. Or Raines.
I thought about it, but I figured that this is a more interesting project if we split from the BBWAA’s decisions. To be frank, I don’t know what is gained by debating Bert Blyleven’s candidacy every year until he gets elected by the real Hall of Fame: he’s a Hall-of-Famer in most of our books. I’d rather spend time on Edgar Martinez.
So we’ll continue to echo the BBWAA ballot, but we’re going to follow our own decisions….if a player gets more than 75% of our vote, he is in our Hall. If a player gets less than 5% in our vote, he falls off the ballot. If a player gets 5% on our poll and falls off the Hall ballot, well, he’s still going to be on our ballot.
(Incidentally, this means that Jim Rice will be making an appearance on next year’s ballot, as he received something like 6% of the vote last year, which keeps him on our ballot. Mea culpa, Jim Ed.)
Lastly, I need to do a better part getting out the vote: I’d love to get the voting up over 100, or over 200: I think 60 voters isn’t a terrific total: I want more. I’ll work on that.
Alright…I’ve gone on long enough. Your BJOL Hall-of-Fame classes so far:
|
2009
|
2010
|
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Roberto Alomar
|
|
Tim Raines
|
Barry Larkin
|
|
Bert Blyleven
|
Mark McGwire
|
|
Alan Trammell
|
|
Congrats to those seven players. We’ll do it all again next year.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.