It took a little while, but his 2009 MVP award suggests that the mainstream media is finally starting to appreciate Joe Mauer. It was quite a year: as most of you know, Mauer won his third batting title in four years. Most strikingly, he found the fences at an astonishing rate, going from a hitting a homerun every 46.7 at-bats over the first five years of his career to hitting a homerun once every 18.7 at-bats in 2009.
So, in honor of his first MVP, let’s tackle a few questions about Joe Mauer.
Was Mauer’s 2009 season the greatest ever by a catcher?
The top twenty seasons by catchers, according to Win Shares:
|
Name
|
Year
|
Off WS
|
Def. WS
|
Total WS
|
|
Piazza
|
1997
|
32.3
|
6.4
|
38.6
|
|
Bench
|
1972
|
29
|
7.7
|
36.8
|
|
Freehan
|
1968
|
24.6
|
10.4
|
35.1
|
|
Berra
|
1954
|
26.1
|
8.3
|
34.4
|
|
Bench
|
1974
|
25.7
|
8.4
|
34
|
|
Bench
|
1970
|
23.9
|
9.9
|
33.7
|
|
Dickey
|
1937
|
23.6
|
9.8
|
33.4
|
|
Carter
|
1985
|
22.1
|
11.1
|
33.3
|
|
Campanella
|
1953
|
24.6
|
8.5
|
33.1
|
|
Fisk
|
1972
|
26.3
|
6.8
|
33.1
|
|
Campanella
|
1951
|
24.7
|
8.3
|
33
|
|
Piazza
|
1996
|
28.2
|
4.7
|
32.9
|
|
Mauer
|
2009
|
27.32
|
5.04
|
32.36
|
|
Berra
|
1950
|
24.2
|
7.7
|
31.9
|
|
Howard
|
1964
|
21.3
|
10.5
|
31.8
|
|
Tenace
|
1975
|
25.4
|
6.2
|
31.6
|
|
Carter
|
1982
|
20.7
|
10.6
|
31.3
|
|
Berra
|
1956
|
23.4
|
7.4
|
30.8
|
|
Daulton
|
1992
|
27.1
|
3.7
|
30.8
|
|
Martinez
|
2007
|
21.9
|
8.9
|
30.8
|
Strictly in terms of offensive output, Mauer’s 2009 season ranks behind Bench’s 1972 season and two years by Mike Piazza as the best ever by a catcher. But defensively, Mauer didn’t tally nearly as many Win Shares as he did in 2006. This was mostly due to Mauer making only 105 starts as a catcher.
It was a great year, but it wasn’t the greatest season by a catcher.
Is Mauer keeping pace with the All-Time Greats?
The 2009 season was Mauer’s Age-26 season.
With apologies to Josh Gibson, the nine best catchers to play in the majors were Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, and Ivan Rodriguez. At this point in his career, how is Mauer doing against those nine?
|
|
Bench
|
Mauer
|
Rodriguez
|
Carter
|
Berra
|
|
Age 19
|
1.6
|
|
6.1
|
|
|
|
Age 20
|
23.7
|
|
13.5
|
2.2
|
|
|
Age 21
|
28.3
|
5.8
|
15.2
|
18.2
|
1.7
|
|
Age 22
|
33.7
|
22.2
|
15.5
|
5.7
|
10.8
|
|
Age 23
|
18.7
|
29.66
|
16.4
|
25.3
|
18
|
|
Age 24
|
36.8
|
20.96
|
22.6
|
22.4
|
21
|
|
Age 25
|
25.8
|
29.54
|
26.4
|
27.4
|
31.9
|
|
Age 26
|
34
|
32.36
|
26.6
|
30
|
30.6
|
|
Total WS
|
202.6
|
140.52
|
142.3
|
131.2
|
114
|
|
|
Cochrane
|
Dickey
|
Piazza
|
Fisk
|
Campanella
|
|
Age 21
|
|
0.1
|
|
|
|
|
Age 22
|
16.2
|
17.9
|
|
|
|
|
Age 23
|
13.6
|
14.5
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
|
|
Age 24
|
23.2
|
19.9
|
30.5
|
33.1
|
|
|
Age 25
|
21.5
|
18.4
|
21.1
|
16.6
|
|
|
Age 26
|
27.3
|
25.2
|
27
|
11.1
|
12.3
|
|
Total WS
|
101.8
|
96
|
79.9
|
63.1
|
12.3
|
According to Win Shares, Mauer is still well short of Johnny Bench, but he is ahead of the rest of the pack.
At Age 26, Mauer has posted three seasons of 30+ Win Shares, three MVP-caliber seasons.
Where Does This Peak Rank Among Other Catchers?
Let’s take Mauer’s five-year stretch of 2004-2009. How does that compare to the peak five-year stretches of the other catchers mentioned above?
|
Berra
|
Piazza
|
Bench
|
Cochrane
|
Carter
|
|
1950-54
|
1996-00
|
1970-74
|
1929-33
|
1982-86
|
|
31.9
|
32.9
|
33.7
|
27.3
|
31.3
|
|
30.6
|
38.6
|
18.7
|
30.6
|
24.3
|
|
29.3
|
33
|
36.8
|
28
|
30.2
|
|
28.2
|
21.2
|
25.8
|
30
|
33.3
|
|
34.4
|
27.5
|
34
|
25.9
|
22.6
|
|
154.4
|
153.2
|
149
|
141.8
|
141.7
|
|
Mauer
|
Campy
|
Dickey
|
I-Rod
|
Fisk
|
|
2005-09
|
1949-53
|
1935-39
|
1996-00
|
1974-78
|
|
22.20
|
23.9
|
19.8
|
22.6
|
11.1
|
|
29.66
|
21.6
|
25
|
26.4
|
15.3
|
|
20.96
|
33
|
33.4
|
26.6
|
19.2
|
|
29.54
|
21.5
|
26.9
|
27.6
|
29.7
|
|
32.36
|
33.1
|
27.4
|
19
|
30.5
|
|
134.72
|
133.1
|
132.5
|
122.2
|
105.8
|
His 134.72 Win Shares rank sixth among the catchers listed, but even another season of 30 Win Shares would only push him past Carter and Cochrane. In terms of peak ability, Mauer’s last five seasons have been terrific, but they’re not quite on par with the best years of Berra, Bench, Piazza, Cochrane, or Carter.
A quick aside….there have been thirty-six seasons of catchers notching 30 or more Win Shares. Thirty-six seasons, collected by eighteen catchers:
|
No. of 30+
WS Seasons
|
Name
|
|
4
|
Bench, Berra, Carter
|
|
3
|
Fisk, Piazza, Mauer
|
|
2
|
Campanella, Cochrane, Freehan
|
|
1
|
Daulton, Dickey, Howard, Lopez, Martinez,
|
|
|
McCann, Porter, Simmons, Tenace
|
Mauer, with three 30-Win Share seasons under his belt, is just south of Berra, Bench, and Carter.
Will the Twins keep him?
I think they will, yes.
Let’s ask that question in a different way: is there any precedent for the Twins not keeping him?
Joe Mauer is a truly great player. Along with Pujols and Hanley Ramirez and a few others, Mauer is one of the very best players in the game right now. He has a chance to go down in history as one of the top 5-10 players to ever play his position.
So here’s an exercise: write down a list of ten great players. Any ten, just off the top of your head. Here’s mine: Ruth, Gehrig, Ted Williams, Koufax, Aaron, Clemente, Mays, Hornsby, Yastrzemski, and Schmidt.
Now: go through your list and ask how many of them were traded around a lot, and how many stuck to one team for most of their careers.
From my list, Gehrig, Williams, Koufax, Clemente, Schmidt, and Yaz were all lifers, spending their entire big league careers with one organization. Mays and Aaron moved late in their careers, but they played their best years for one team.
That leaves Ruth and Hornsby. Ruth was moved from Boston because everyone was being moved from Boston…had Frazee cared a lick about winning games, he would’ve kept Ruth. Hornsby moved around because he forced his way out.
As a rule, teams lucky enough to have a Great Player don’t let those players go.
There are, I think, two exceptions to that rule; two reasons why a team would let go of a Great Player.
The first exception relates to an ability to contend, which is tied somewhat to finances: if a team can’t contend even with a Mantle or a Mays, that team might cut the player loose. Connie Mack used to do this a lot: he’d move Foxx or Grove because he knew he didn’t have a chance to contend anyway, so why not turn a profit? Alex Rodriguez is a great player, but that didn’t matter much in Texas.
The second relates to a conflict of personality: sometimes having a Great Player isn’t worth the headache. This is why Hornsby was moved so often, and why Dick Allen was traded from Philly. Tom Seaver falls into this category: Seaver got embroiled in a spat with the Mets GM that made it impossible for him to remain in New York.
There is probably a third exception, one that covers Frank Robinson and Roger Clemens…‘the end is (not) nigh’ exception?
Even whenthose conditions do apply, a team is more apt hold on to their Great Players than let them go. Ty Cobb was a jerk, but the Tigers held onto him because he was too good to let go. The Cubs couldn’t contend with Banks, but they sure didn’t want anyone else trying to, either. The Orioles were in the doldrums in the late 1980’s, but they didn’t move Ripken. The Brewers never moved Yount. The Royals never moved Brett. The Cardinals never moved Ozzie. The Padres kept Gwynn and the Twins kept Kirby. You get the idea.
None of the above exceptions apply to Mauer. The Twins, who will be moving into a nice new stadium in 2010, are coming off a division title year: they will have the requisite finances to afford Mauer and they should remain contenders in the AL Central. As for the second exception, Mauer is about as far away from having a conflict of personality as anyone in baseball.
Say the Twins do move Mauer. What is the precedent?
Colavito in 1959. That bad.
People think that the Ruth sale was tough, but the Red Sox were 66-71 in 1919, good for just 6th place in the AL. Ruth was the best player in baseball even then, but it didn’t matter a hill of beans to the Red Sox: they were a sinking ship before Ruth was sold. If anything, Ruth's sale was the last nail in the coffin.
But Colavito…that was ugly. Colavito was the most popular Cleveland since Lajoie, and the fans were irate that he was swapped for Harvey Kuenn. Cleveland finished second in 1959, five games back of the Go-Go Sox. They moved Colavito in the off-season and immediately fell off the table…they had a long stretch of years under .500, starting in 1960. That wasn’t all to do with Colavito, but the Cleveland fans sure thought it did. Meanwhile Harvey Kuenn, whose only mistake was winning a batting title in 1959, was moved after the season
Colavito wasn’t a great player, but he was incredibly popular. Mauer is a great player, and if anything he is morepopular in Minnesota than Colavito was in Cleveland.
Should the Twins sign Mauer?
Again, I thinkthe Twins will sign Mauer. But there might be a few reasons not to sign Mauer.
First, he’s a catcher. He has caught 607 games in the major leagues, and if he plays the entirety of 2010 we can give him credit for at least one hundred more games, putting him up over 700 major league games behind the plate, plus however many game he caught in the minors.
Catching takes its toll on a player, and Mauer’s worth is tired directly to his catching. He is a $20-million-a-year catcher, but it is less certain that he is a $20-million-a-year first baseman or designated hitter. Should Mauer move off the plate, he would almost certainly be over-paid.
What am I saying? Only that signing Mauer is a risk. To keep him, the Twins will have to allocate about 20% of their team payroll to Mauer: should he get injured, or should he experience the same rapid decline that most catchers experience, the Twins will suffer.
A team like the Yankees or Red Sox can afford a risk like Mauer. Indeed, teams in divisions where wins are most costly need totake such risks. But the Twins, who languish in the AL Central, might be better served moving Mauer for a broader swath of cost-controlled talent.
All that said, I hope the Twins hold on to him. He’s the best player they’ve ever had.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.