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2009-2010 Young Talent Inventory

February 1, 2010

            This is a revised article.   When this article was first posted a few days ago, I had a few players on the wrong teams.   Apparently, some major league teams have been signing and trading players without telling me.   These errors having been brought to my attention, I have corrected them and revised the lists. 

 

            Which major league team has the most young talent in their organization?

            Two years ago, in the 2008 Bill James Handbook, we introduced a method to study that issue.   We repeated the study in the 2009 Handbook, and then this year, to give us more time to study the issue and improve the methodology, we moved the study from the Handbook to the Gold Mine

 

            We begin by assigning to every player in major league baseball an “Inventory Value”, based on his age and major league performance.   The method that was used here, while essentially similar to the original method, has been revised and extended.   I’ll detail the entire process:

 

            1)  Figure the Season Score for every major league player for the 2007, 2008 and 2009 seasons.

 

            2)  A player’s Established Value is

 

                        One times his 2007 Season Score, plus

                        Two times his 2008 Season Score, plus

                        Three times his 2009 Season Score,

                        divided by six,

                        but not less than .750 times his 2009 Season Score.

 

            3)   Because the Season Scores of pitchers are not perfectly synchronized with the Season Scores of hitters, we multiplied the Established Values of pitchers by 1.40, in order to bring the “trade values” of the pitchers in line with those of the hitters.

 

            4)  We then created a “Youth value” for each player, which was:

 

                        35

                        Minus his age as of June 30, 2009,

                        Times 20.

 

            The “Youth Value” for a 20-year-old player would be 300, for a 25-year-old player 200, for a 30-year-old player 100.

 

            5)  We then created a “Youth/Performance” number which was the harmonic mean of these two numbers—the Youth Value and the Established Value.

 

            6)  This Youth/Performance number represented the “Trade Value” or “Inventory Value” for each player, except that, for players aged 28 or older, the Inventory Value could not be greater than the Established Value.   In other words, supposed that you have a 20-year-old player and a 30-year-old player who each have an Established Value of 70.   The “Inventory Value” of the 20-year-old player would be 113.5, which is the harmonic mean of 70 and 300.    The Inventory Value of the 30-year old player might have been 82.4, which is the harmonic mean of 70 and 100, but the Inventory Value of a 30-year-old player can’t be higher than his Established Value, which is 70, so his Inventory Value would be 70. 

 

            7)  In addition to this I took the MLB “Top 50 prospects” List released January 27, 2010, and gave value for those prospects in this way:

 

            51 minus the rank on the list,

             times 3

            plus 25

 

            Thus, the number one player on the prospect list, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward, had an Inventory Value of 175, while the number 50 player on the list had an inventory value of 28.

 

            I’ll retrace the steps of the process for Julio Lugo, Albert Pujols and Nolan Reimold, for purposes of illustration.

 

            1)  Julio Lugo had season scores for the last three seasons of 109, 36 and 82—an Established Value of 71.3.

            2)  Albert Pujols had season scores for the last three seasons of 395, 500 and 554, an Established Value of 509.5.

            3)  Nolan Reimold has had season scores for the last three seasons of 0, 0, and 143.77.  This would create an established value of 71.885, except for the rule that Established Value cannot be less than .75 times the value of the most recent season.   This makes his Established Value 107.8.

 

            We then create an “Youth Value” for each player.    For Julio Lugo, who was 33 years old in 2009, the Youth Value was 40. 

            For Pujols, who was 29, the Youth Value was 120.

            For Reimold, who was 25, the Youth Value was 200. 

 

            We then find the Harmonic Mean of these two numbers.   For Lugo, whose two numbers are 71.3 and 40, this creates an Inventory Value of 51.3. 

            For Pujols, whose two numbers are 509.5 and 120, this creates an Inventory Value of 194.3.

            For Reimold, whose two numbers were 107.8 and 200, this creates and Inventory Value of 138.5.

 

            In other words, Pujols is worth substantially more than Reimold, but Reimold is worth more than twice as much as Julio Lugo.   You knew this anyway, but we need a systematic method to state the value of each player, based on his youth and his major league performance.

 

            Coco Crisp is the same age as Albert Pujols, but Coco Crisp has an Established Value, after several years of injuries, of just 86.7.   His “age value” is 120, the same as Pujols, but if you seek the harmonic mean of 86.7 and 120 you get 100.6.  100.6 is higher than 86.7, and at that age, the “age value” consideration is not allowed to increase the Inventory Value (only decrease it), so Coco’s Inventory Value stays at 86.7.    He slots in between Reimold and Lugo:  Albert 194, Reimold 139, Crisp 87, Lugo 52. 

 

            Some players had two scores—a major league score and a prospect score.   In those cases, we used whichever was higher, which in almost all cases was the prospect score.

 

            By our method, the 20 “most valuable properties” in the majors at this moment are:

 

First

Last

Team

2009 Age

IV

1

Felix

Hernandez

Mariners

23

267

2

Prince

Fielder

Brewers

25

267

3

Hanley

Ramirez

Marlins

25

265

4

Ryan

Braun

Brewers

25

261

5

Pablo

Sandoval

Giants

22

255

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

Tim

Lincecum

Giants

25

252

7

Evan

Longoria

Rays

23

249

8

Justin

Upton

Diamondbacks

21

248

9

Miguel

Cabrera

Tigers

26

241

10

Nick

Markakis

Orioles

25

239

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

Matt

Kemp

Dodgers

24

238

12

Dustin

Pedroia

Red Sox

25

238

13

Zack

Greinke

Royals

25

238

14

Ryan

Zimmerman

Nationals

24

238

15

David

Wright

Mets

26

234

 

 

 

 

 

 

16

Joe

Mauer

Twins

26

232

17

Troy

Tulowitzki

Rockies

24

232

18

Adam

Lind

Blue Jays

25

232

19

Jair

Jurrjens

Braves

23

227

20

Mark

Reynolds

Diamondbacks

25

226

 

            Probably you do not exactly agree with all of those listings, and you may be inclined to write to me and argue that the top twenty list should have included Adrian Gonzalez, or Jonathon Broxton, or Aaron Hill, or Adam Jones, or Curtis Granderson, or some other slacker.   If you are determined to write me such a letter, then it is my sad duty to inform you at this time that you are a moron, and in the future you should refrain from engaging in public discourse, out of consideration for others.

 

            No, I’m joking, of course.   I have no doubt that your list of the top 20 young players in baseball right now would be every bit as good as mine; indeed, I have no doubt that it would be better than mine.   But here’s my point:  We don’t really know.   There is no right answer.  What we are talking about here is who is going to be a good ballplayer in the future.   We don’t know; I don’t know, you don’t know.   We’re guessing.    We should make the best guess that we can make, but we could spend the next 90 days debating who should be where and refining our method, and we would still be wrong.

 

            We would still be wrong, and we would never get to the question of which teams have the most young talent.   This is not an article about whether Felix Hernandez is a more valuable young player than Tim Lincecum or vice versa.    This is an article about whether Seattle has more young talent than San Francisco.   In order to get to the doorway of that question, we have to close off debate about this one.   So.  . .I don’t want to hear about it.   If you have objections to my list, keep them to yourself; it’s not helpful. 

 

            OK, next we eliminated from the list players whose Inventory Value was less than 25.   Less than 25 is less than one-half the value of Julio Lugo.    Players with Inventory Value of 25 are routinely non-tendered, not offered contracts, and there are a billion of them, so . .we’re not interested in them; we’re interested in the good young players.    There were 737 major league players and prospects in 2009 with inventory value of at least 25 points.

 

            However, I didn’t count all of those players in the inventory totals.   I counted:

 

            1)  All players with an Inventory Value of 70 or more, and

            2)  At least 15 players on each team.

 

            70 points is not a lot of inventory value; that’s Jody Gerut, Manny Parra, Kyle McClellan or Torii Hunter.    But only 8 of the 30 major league teams have more than 15 players of that value.   For those 8 teams, I counted everybody with a value of 70 or greater.   For the other 22 teams, I counted their top 15 players.

 

            You want to debate the decision to drop players below the top 15?    At some level, everybody kind of looks alike.   Players with an Inventory Value of 50 or less are players you can pick up cheap as a free agent, a late January or early February free agent.    The possession of such players does not shape the futures of organizations.     One team has about as many of those players as the next—and if they don’t, it doesn’t matter, because if you have too many of them, you just have to release one of them and play the other.    When you ask the question, “which teams have the most young talent”, you’re not talking about who has more Brayan Penas and Ross Gloads.

 

            OK, let’s get to the list.   The major league team with the most young talent—as it was when first did this two years ago--is the Tampa Bay Rays.   This chart summarizes the totals of the 30 major league teams:

 

Rank

Team

Count

Hitting

Pitching

Prospects

Total

1

Rays

21

1446

894

523

2864

2

Rockies

18

1476

944

109

2529

3

Twins

18

1445

904

91

2441

4

Diamondbacks

16

1599

671

115

2385

5

Red Sox

16

1070

1049

191

2310

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

Giants

18

1012

958

314

2284

7

Yankees

17

1025

1050

121

2197

8

Rangers

17

1215

474

432

2121

9

White Sox

16

1041

1064

0

2106

10

Marlins

15

1052

782

272

2106

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

Dodgers

15

890

1132

70

2092

12

Phillies

15

1077

823

136

2036

13

Braves

15

1262

522

251

2035

14

Angels

15

1005

1028

0

2033

15

Royals

15

1116

694

161

1971

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16

Mets

15

1210

729

0

1939

17

Cubs

17

934

853

112

1898

18

Mariners

15

965

787

133

1885

19

Brewers

15

1109

476

242

1827

20

Orioles

15

1215

439

163

1817

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21

A's

16

1076

640

73

1789

22

Blue Jays

15

1038

461

257

1756

23

Nationals

15

1208

305

230

1743

24

Cardinals

15

1064

663

0

1727

25

Pirates

15

1002

507

154

1662

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26

Indians

15

1020

496

145

1661

27

Reds

15

883

608

88

1579

28

Tigers

15

683

813

64

1559

29

Padres

15

950

528

0

1478

30

Astros

15

610

639

85

1334

 

            The Rays rank 3rd in Young Position Players, 1st in Prospects, and 9th in Young Pitching.    The last-place Astros rank last in Position Players, 22nd in Prospects, and  20th in Young Pitching. 

 

            This chart gives a complete summary of the players who are included in this accounting, and the values assigned to them:

 

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

Kendry

Morales

Angels

26

209

 

Adam

Lind

Blue Jays

25

232

Jered

Weaver

Angels

26

194

 

Aaron

Hill

Blue Jays

27

188

Scott

Kazmir

Angels

25

169

 

Edwin

Encarnacion

Blue Jays

26

150

Joe

Saunders

Angels

28

166

 

Brett

Wallace

Blue Jays

22

130

Howie

Kendrick

Angels

25

161

 

Kyle

Drabek

Blue Jays

21

127

Mike

Napoli

Angels

27

154

 

Vernon

Wells

Blue Jays

30

126

Erick

Aybar

Angels

25

154

 

Ricky

Romero

Blue Jays

24

119

Ervin

Santana

Angels

26

151

 

Jesse

Litsch

Blue Jays

24

105

Maicer

Izturis

Angels

28

135

 

Jose

Bautista

Blue Jays

28

104

Juan

Rivera

Angels

30

123

 

Lyle

Overbay

Blue Jays

32

88

Joel

Pineiro

Angels

30

120

 

Jason

Frasor

Blue Jays

31

85

Jose

Arredondo

Angels

25

90

 

Brandon

Morrow

Blue Jays

24

84

Matt

Palmer

Angels

30

76

 

Travis

Snider

Blue Jays

21

84

Torii

Hunter

Angels

33

69

 

Jeremy

Accardo

Blue Jays

27

68

Brian

Fuentes

Angels

33

63

 

John

Buck

Blue Jays

28

67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andrew

Bailey

A's

25

168

 

Jair

Jurrjens

Braves

23

227

Kurt

Suzuki

A's

25

162

 

Brian

McCann

Braves

25

217

Kevin

Kouzmanoff

A's

27

156

 

Nate

McLouth

Braves

27

190

Ryan

Sweeney

A's

24

145

 

Yunel

Escobar

Braves

26

180

Brett

Anderson

A's

21

132

 

Jason

Heyward

Braves

19

175

Rajai

Davis

A's

28

124

 

Martin

Prado

Braves

25

158

Jack

Cust

A's

30

107

 

Melky

Cabrera

Braves

24

154

Brad

Ziegler

A's

29

101

 

Tommy

Hanson

Braves

22

152

Daric

Barton

A's

23

101

 

Matt

Diaz

Braves

31

102

Mike

Wuertz

A's

30

99

 

Omar

Infante

Braves

27

98

Dallas

Braden

A's

25

92

 

Eric

Hinske

Braves

31

85

Jake

Fox

A's

26

91

 

Peter

Moylan

Braves

30

82

Coco

Crisp

A's

29

87

 

Troy

Glaus

Braves

32

78

Mark

Ellis

A's

32

79

 

Julio

Teheran

Braves

18

76

Michael

Taylor

A's

23

73

 

Tim

Hudson

Braves

33

61

Josh

Outman

A's

24

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hunter

Pence

Astros

26

192

 

Prince

Fielder

Brewers

25

267

Michael

Bourn

Astros

26

156

 

Ryan

Braun

Brewers

25

261

Wandy

Rodriguez

Astros

30

130

 

Corey

Hart

Brewers

27

170

Roy

Oswalt

Astros

31

116

 

Yovani

Gallardo

Brewers

23

167

Brandon

Lyon

Astros

29

102

 

Casey

McGehee

Brewers

26

155

Jason

Castro

Astros

22

85

 

Alcides

Escobar

Brewers

22

142

Brett

Myers

Astros

28

72

 

Rickie

Weeks

Brewers

26

138

Lance

Berkman

Astros

33

71

 

Brett

Lawrie

Brewers

19

100

Carlos

Lee

Astros

33

70

 

Jody

Gerut

Brewers

31

71

Chris

Sampson

Astros

31

64

 

Manny

Parra

Brewers

26

70

Jeff

Keppinger

Astros

29

63

 

Carlos

Villanueva

Brewers

25

64

Bud

Norris

Astros

24

60

 

Todd

Coffey

Brewers

28

61

Kaz

Matsui

Astros

33

58

 

Claudio

Vargas

Brewers

31

61

Alberto

Arias

Astros

25

52

 

Mitch

Stetter

Brewers

28

53

Jeff

Fulchino

Astros

29

43

 

Mat

Gamel

Brewers

23

48

 

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

Adam

Wainwright

Cardinals

27

208

 

Matt

Kemp

Dodgers

24

238

Albert

Pujols

Cardinals

29

194

 

Chad

Billingsley

Dodgers

24

215

Matt

Holliday

Cardinals

29

183

 

Andre

Ethier

Dodgers

27

202

Ryan

Ludwick

Cardinals

30

142

 

Jonathan

Broxton

Dodgers

25

201

Colby

Rasmus

Cardinals

22

131

 

James

Loney

Dodgers

25

195

Skip

Schumaker

Cardinals

29

130

 

Clayton

Kershaw

Dodgers

21

171

Yadier

Molina

Cardinals

26

128

 

Russell

Martin

Dodgers

26

160

Kyle

Lohse

Cardinals

30

105

 

Ramon

Troncoso

Dodgers

26

100

Brendan

Ryan

Cardinals

27

105

 

Vicente

Padilla

Dodgers

31

96

Brad

Penny

Cardinals

31

89

 

Rafael

Furcal

Dodgers

31

96

Blake

Hawksworth

Cardinals

26

71

 

Hong-Chih

Kuo

Dodgers

27

93

Kyle

McClellan

Cardinals

25

69

 

Randy

Wolf

Dodgers

32

91

Todd

Wellemeyer

Cardinals

30

68

 

George

Sherrill

Dodgers

32

85

Brad

Thompson

Cardinals

27

53

 

Ronald

Belisario

Dodgers

26

79

Julio

Lugo

Cardinals

33

51

 

Dee

Gordon

Dodgers

21

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carlos

Zambrano

Cubs

28

161

 

Pablo

Sandoval

Giants

22

255

Rich

Harden

Cubs

27

156

 

Tim

Lincecum

Giants

25

252

Geovany

Soto

Cubs

26

142

 

Matt

Cain

Giants

24

215

Carlos

Marmol

Cubs

26

138

 

Brian

Wilson

Giants

27

166

Randy

Wells

Cubs

26

128

 

Buster

Posey

Giants

22

166

Ryan

Theriot

Cubs

29

122

 

Madison

Bumgarner

Giants

19

148

Aramis

Ramirez

Cubs

31

121

 

Juan

Uribe

Giants

30

109

Marlon

Byrd

Cubs

31

115

 

Aaron

Rowand

Giants

31

109

Starlin

Castro

Cubs

19

112

 

Fred

Lewis

Giants

28

106

Xavier

Nady

Cubs

30

111

 

Freddy

Sanchez

Giants

31

98

Ryan

Dempster

Cubs

32

94

 

Aubrey

Huff

Giants

32

93

John

Grabow

Cubs

30

93

 

Travis

Ishikawa

Giants

25

90

Mike

Fontenot

Cubs

29

89

 

Jonathan

Sanchez

Giants

26

87

Tom

Gorzelanny

Cubs

26

83

 

Sergio

Romo

Giants

26

86

Kosuke

Fukudome

Cubs

32

82

 

Barry

Zito

Giants

31

80

Jeff

Baker

Cubs

28

80

 

Eugenio

Velez

Giants

27

78

Derrek

Lee

Cubs

33

71

 

Nate

Schierholtz

Giants

25

74

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeremy

Affeldt

Giants

30

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Justin

Upton

Diamondbacks

21

248

 

Grady

Sizemore

Indians

26

207

Mark

Reynolds

Diamondbacks

25

226

 

Shin-Soo

Choo

Indians

26

204

Dan

Haren

Diamondbacks

28

191

 

Asdrubal

Cabrera

Indians

23

196

Stephen

Drew

Diamondbacks

26

180

 

Jhonny

Peralta

Indians

27

166

Edwin

Jackson

Diamondbacks

25

172

 

Carlos

Santana

Indians

23

145

Miguel

Montero

Diamondbacks

25

161

 

Luis

Valbuena

Indians

23

94

Adam

LaRoche

Diamondbacks

29

158

 

Kerry

Wood

Indians

32

81

Kelly

Johnson

Diamondbacks

27

150

 

Travis

Hafner

Indians

32

78

Chris

Young

Diamondbacks

25

141

 

Joe

Smith

Indians

25

78

Gerardo

Parra

Diamondbacks

22

131

 

Aaron

Laffey

Indians

24

76

Conor

Jackson

Diamondbacks

27

129

 

Matt

LaPorta

Indians

24

74

Brandon

Webb

Diamondbacks

30

127

 

Justin

Masterson

Indians

24

73

Jarrod

Parker

Diamondbacks

20

115

 

Chris

Perez

Indians

23

65

Chad

Qualls

Diamondbacks

30

106

 

Rafael

Perez

Indians

27

63

Juan

Gutierrez

Diamondbacks

25

75

 

David

Huff

Indians

24

60

Chris

Snyder

Diamondbacks

28

75

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

 

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

Felix

Hernandez

Mariners

23

267

 

Ryan

Zimmerman

Nationals

24

238

 

Jose

Lopez

Mariners

25

190

 

Adam

Dunn

Nationals

29

173

 

Franklin

Gutierrez

Mariners

26

157

 

Stephen

Strasberg

Nationals

20

172

 

David

Aardsma

Mariners

27

148

 

Josh

Willingham

Nationals

30

131

 

Cliff

Lee

Mariners

30

148

 

John

Lannan

Nationals

24

126

 

Casey

Kotchman

Mariners

26

140

 

Elijah

Dukes

Nationals

25

124

 

Ryan

Garko

Mariners

28

138

 

Lastings

Milledge

Nationals

24

108

 

Dustin

Ackley

Mariners

22

133

 

Nyjer

Morgan

Nationals

28

104

 

Ryan

Rowland-Smith

Mariners

26

119

 

Cristian

Guzman

Nationals

31

99

 

Milton

Bradley

Mariners

31

110

 

Kevin

Gregg

Nationals

31

97

 

Chone

Figgins

Mariners

31

110

 

Willie

Harris

Nationals

31

87

 

Ian

Snell

Mariners

27

68

 

Jesus

Flores

Nationals

24

84

 

Jack

Wilson

Mariners

31

60

 

Tyler

Clippard

Nationals

24

82

 

Eric

Byrnes

Mariners

33

53

 

Chris

Duncan

Nationals

28

61

 

Shawn

Kelley

Mariners

25

45

 

Drew

Storen

Nationals

21

58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hanley

Ramirez

Marlins

25

265

 

Nick

Markakis

Orioles

25

239

 

Josh

Johnson

Marlins

25

198

 

Adam

Jones

Orioles

23

180

 

Chris

Coghlan

Marlins

24

188

 

Brian

Matusz

Orioles

22

163

 

Jorge

Cantu

Marlins

27

179

 

Matt

Wieters

Orioles

23

140

 

Mike

Stanton

Marlins

19

169

 

Nolan

Reimold

Orioles

25

132

 

Ricky

Nolasco

Marlins

26

169

 

Brian

Roberts

Orioles

31

124

 

Cody

Ross

Marlins

28

163

 

Luke

Scott

Orioles

31

112

 

Dan

Uggla

Marlins

29

162

 

Matt

Wieters

Orioles

23

106

 

Leo

Nunez

Marlins

25

120

 

Brad

Bergesen

Orioles

23

101

 

Logan

Morrison

Marlins

21

103

 

Ty

Wigginton

Orioles

31

94

 

John

Baker

Marlins

28

95

 

Jeremy

Guthrie

Orioles

30

91

 

Chris

Volstad

Marlins

22

85

 

Jim

Johnson

Orioles

26

88

 

Renyel

Pinto

Marlins

26

78

 

Felix

Pie

Orioles

24

86

 

Burke

Badenhop

Marlins

26

73

 

Mike

Gonzalez

Orioles

31

83

 

Sean

West

Marlins

23

60

 

Cla

Meredith

Orioles

26

75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David

Wright

Mets

26

234

 

Adrian

Gonzalez

Padres

27

216

 

Francisco

Rodriguez

Mets

27

188

 

Chase

Headley

Padres

25

135

 

Jose

Reyes

Mets

26

174

 

Jon

Garland

Padres

29

122

 

Jeff

Francoeur

Mets

25

171

 

Scott

Hairston

Padres

29

119

 

Jason

Bay

Mets

30

153

 

Heath

Bell

Padres

31

114

 

Johan

Santana

Mets

30

147

 

Everth

Cabrera

Padres

22

103

 

Daniel

Murphy

Mets

24

143

 

Will

Venable

Padres

26

99

 

Angel

Pagan

Mets

27

128

 

Kyle

Blanks

Padres

22

86

 

Mike

Pelfrey

Mets

25

123

 

Clayton

Richard

Padres

25

84

 

John

Maine

Mets

28

108

 

Kevin

Correia

Padres

28

83

 

Carlos

Beltran

Mets

32

98

 

Tony Jr.

Gwynn

Padres

26

69

 

Oliver

Perez

Mets

27

98

 

Chris

Young

Padres

30

68

 

Pedro

Feliciano

Mets

32

64

 

Nick

Hundley

Padres

25

66

 

Luis

Castillo

Mets

33

57

 

Jerry Jr.

Hairston

Padres

33

56

 

Anderson

Hernandez

Mets

26

52

 

Adam

Russell

Padres

26

56

 

                               

 

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

Cole

Hamels

Phillies

25

205

 

Evan

Longoria

Rays

23

249

Ryan

Howard

Phillies

29

183

 

B.J.

Upton

Rays

24

193

Shane

Victorino

Phillies

28

174

 

Carl

Crawford

Rays

27

187

Chase

Utley

Phillies

30

157

 

Ben

Zobrist

Rays

28

179

J.A.

Happ

Phillies

26

155

 

James

Shields

Rays

27

176

Joe

Blanton

Phillies

28

149

 

Desmond

Jennings

Rays

22

160

Jayson

Werth

Phillies

30

143

 

Matt

Garza

Rays

25

157

Jimmy

Rollins

Phillies

30

141

 

J.P.

Howell

Rays

26

154

Ben

Francisco

Phillies

27

136

 

Jason

Bartlett

Rays

29

152

Dominick

Brown

Phillies

21

136

 

Wade

Davis

Rays

23

139

Ryan

Madson

Phillies

28

108

 

Jeff

Niemann

Rays

26

133

Kyle

Kendrick

Phillies

24

103

 

Carlos

Pena

Rays

31

126

Roy

Halladay

Phillies

32

103

 

Jeremy

Hellickson

Rays

22

118

Carlos

Ruiz

Phillies

30

74

 

Tim

Beckham

Rays

19

106

Greg

Dobbs

Phillies

30

69

 

Kelly

Shoppach

Rays

29

106

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rafael

Soriano

Rays

29

102

 

 

 

 

 

 

David

Price

Rays

23

95

 

 

 

 

 

 

Willy

Aybar

Rays

26

94

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pat

Burrell

Rays

32

88

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grant

Balfour

Rays

31

79

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dioner

Navarro

Rays

25

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andrew

McCutchen

Pirates

22

193

 

Dustin

Pedroia

Red Sox

25

238

Pedro

Alvarez

Pirates

22

154

 

Jon

Lester

Red Sox

25

224

Garrett

Jones

Pirates

28

135

 

Jacoby

Ellsbury

Red Sox

25

195

Paul

Maholm

Pirates

27

133

 

Jonathan

Papelbon

Red Sox

28

186

Andy

LaRoche

Pirates

25

132

 

Josh

Beckett

Red Sox

29

164

Ryan

Doumit

Pirates

28

123

 

Kevin

Youkilis

Red Sox

30

155

Matt

Capps

Pirates

25

117

 

Jeremy

Hermida

Red Sox

25

154

Ryan

Church

Pirates

30

108

 

Daisuke

Matsuzaka

Red Sox

28

141

Akinori

Iwamura

Pirates

30

102

 

Victor

Martinez

Red Sox

30

138

Ross

Ohlendorf

Pirates

26

97

 

John

Lackey

Red Sox

30

136

Zach

Duke

Pirates

26

85

 

Adrian

Beltre

Red Sox

30

121

Delwyn

Young

Pirates

27

84

 

Ramon

Ramirez

Red Sox

27

111

Joel

Hanrahan

Pirates

27

74

 

Ryan

Westmoreland

Red Sox

19

97

Brandon

Moss

Pirates

25

74

 

Casey

Kelly

Red Sox

20

94

Bobby

Crosby

Pirates

29

49

 

Manny

Delcarmen

Red Sox

27

87

 

 

 

 

 

 

David

Ortiz

Red Sox

33

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ian

Kinsler

Rangers

27

202

 

Joey

Votto

Reds

25

225

Josh

Hamilton

Rangers

28

167

 

Brandon

Phillips

Reds

28

170

Neftali

Feliz

Rangers

21

157

 

Edinson

Volquez

Reds

25

157

Nelson

Cruz

Rangers

28

155

 

Jay

Bruce

Reds

22

142

Justin

Smoak

Rangers

22

152

 

Johnny

Cueto

Reds

23

115

David

Murphy

Rangers

27

151

 

Nick

Masset

Reds

27

107

Chris

Davis

Rangers

23

147

 

Bronson

Arroyo

Reds

32

88

Scott

Feldman

Rangers

26

143

 

Yonder

Alonso

Reds

22

88

Elvis

Andrus

Rangers

20

135

 

Chris

Dickerson

Reds

27

80

Martin

Perez

Rangers

18

124

 

Aaron

Harang

Reds

31

80

Michael

Young

Rangers

32

96

 

Laynce

Nix

Reds

28

79

C.J.

Wilson

Rangers

28

92

 

Willy

Taveras

Reds

27

66

Julio

Borbon

Rangers

23

88

 

Drew

Stubbs

Reds

24

66

Frank

Francisco

Rangers

29

86

 

Jared

Burton

Reds

28

61

Darren

O'Day

Rangers

26

81

 

Wladimir

Balentien

Reds

24

56

Brandon

McCarthy

Rangers

25

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jarrod

Saltalamacchia

Rangers

24

71

 

 

 

 

 

 

                           

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

First

Last

Team

Age

Value

 

Troy

Tulowitzki

Rockies

24

232

 

Joe

Mauer

Twins

26

232

 

Huston

Street

Rockies

25

195

 

Jason

Kubel

Twins

27

192

 

Ubaldo

Jimenez

Rockies

25

190

 

Justin

Morneau

Twins

28

191

 

Brad

Hawpe

Rockies

29

167

 

Denard

Span

Twins

25

184

 

Seth

Smith

Rockies

26

159

 

Scott

Baker

Twins

27

177

 

Ian

Stewart

Rockies

24

157

 

Delmon

Young

Twins

23

175

 

Carlos

Gonzalez

Rockies

23

149

 

J.J.

Hardy

Twins

26

155

 

Chris

Iannetta

Rockies

26

146

 

Kevin

Slowey

Twins

25

153

 

Dexter

Fowler

Rockies

23

146

 

Michael

Cuddyer

Twins

30

137

 

Jorge

de la Rosa

Rockies

28

129

 

Nick

Blackburn

Twins

27

133

 

Aaron

Cook

Rockies

30

126

 

Jon

Rauch

Twins

30

102

 

Jason

Marquis

Rockies

30

120

 

Glen

Perkins

Twins

26

96

 

Jason

Hammel

Rockies

26

109

 

Aaron

Hicks

Twins

19

91

 

Ryan

Spilborghs

Rockies

29

109

 

Brendan

Harris

Twins

28

90

 

Christian

Friedrich

Rockies

21

109

 

Carlos

Gomez

Twins

23

89

 

Clint

Barmes

Rockies

30

107

 

Matt

Guerrier

Twins

30

88

 

Miguel

Olivo

Rockies

30

104

 

Jesse

Crain

Twins

27

81

 

Manny

Corpas

Rockies

26

75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zack

Greinke

Royals

25

238

 

John

Danks

White Sox

24

191

 

Billy

Butler

Royals

23

225

 

Carlos

Quentin

White Sox

26

179

 

Joakim

Soria

Royals

25

219

 

Jake

Peavy

White Sox

28

167

 

Alberto

Callaspo

Royals

26

176

 

Gavin

Floyd

White Sox

26

165

 

David

DeJesus

Royals

29

144

1001

Gordon

Beckham

White Sox

22

165

 

Alex

Gordon

Royals

25

135

 

Alex

Rios

White Sox

28

165

 

Mike

Jacobs

Royals

28

134

 

Bobby

Jenks

White Sox

28

156

 

Rick

Ankiel

Royals

29

112

 

Mark

Teahen

White Sox

27

147

 

Yuniesky

Betancourt

Royals

27

101

 

Alexei

Ramirez

White Sox

27

141

 

Gil

Meche

Royals

30

98

 

Mark

Buehrle

White Sox

30

133

 

Chris

Getz

Royals

25

90

 

Tony

Pena

White Sox

27

99

 

Mike

Moustakas

Royals

20

82

 

Juan

Pierre

White Sox

31

88

 

Will

Myers

Royals

20

79

 

A.J.

Pierzynski

White Sox

32

81

 

Kyle

Davies

Royals

25

71

 

Matt

Thornton

White Sox

32

79

 

Robinson

Tejeda

Royals

27

68

 

Jayson

Nix

White Sox

26

76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

J.J.

Putz

White Sox

32

74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miguel

Cabrera

Tigers

26

241

 

Robinson

Cano

Yankees

26

208

 

Justin

Verlander

Tigers

26

205

 

C.C.

Sabathia

Yankees

28

200

 

Rick

Porcello

Tigers

20

140

 

Mark

Teixeira

Yankees

29

184

 

Jose

Valverde

Tigers

31

119

 

Curtis

Granderson

Yankees

28

181

 

Zach

Miner

Tigers

27

108

 

Nick

Swisher

Yankees

28

169

 

Ryan

Raburn

Tigers

28

103

 

Joba

Chamberlain

Yankees

23

144

 

Armando

Galarraga

Tigers

27

93

 

Alfredo

Aceves

Yankees

26

128

 

Clete

Thomas

Tigers

25

92

 

Jesus

Montero

Yankees

19

121

 

Max

Scherzer

Tigers

24

91

 

Phil

Hughes

Yankees

23

117

 

Brandon

Inge

Tigers

32

75

 

Nick

Johnson

Yankees

30

117

 

Austin

Jackson

Tigers

22

64

 

Chad

Gaudin

Yankees

26

101

 

Carlos

Guillen

Tigers

33

63

 

Brian

Bruney

Yankees

27

99

 

Bobby

Seay

Tigers

31

58

 

Javier

Vazquez

Yankees

32

96

 

Alex

Avila

Tigers

22

56

 

Brett

Gardner

Yankees

25

95

 

Gerald

Laird

Tigers

29

54

 

A.J.

Burnett

Yankees

32

93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David

Robertson

Yankees

24

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alex

Rodriguez

Yankees

33

72

                                       

 

            In this study, the age spectrum of the value analyzed is as follows:

 

Age

Percent of Total

18

0.3%

19

2.0%

20

1.4%

21

2.3%

22

5.1%

23

6.2%

24

6.8%

25

16.1%

26

14.3%

27

11.2%

28

9.7%

29

6.0%

30

8.6%

31

5.1%

32

3.3%

33

1.6%

34

0.0%

 

            With this method, players aged 35 or older have zero value by definition.   34-year-old players DO have value, but no player aged 34 had enough value to be listed on his team’s roster of the 15 most valuable properties.

 

            The methodology I have used to study this issue at this time is better than the method that was used in previous years, but it still needs some work.   The two biggest issues are these:

 

1)   That more minor league players should be included in the study.   In the past, we ignored minor leaguers.   In this study we included them, but they account for only 8% of the value.   It would be better if 25 to 30% of the value in the study was the minor leaguers. 

 

2)  That there is a problem with players making a minors-to-majors transition.  Clay Buchholz, Cameron Maybin and Luke Gregorson, for example, fail to make their teams’ lists of the most valuable young players.   They are too far advanced to be regarded by MLB as “prospects”, but what they have accomplished so far in the majors is not enough to establish significant major league performance value.   This is not optimal; players like that should be included, and should make the lists.

 
 

COMMENTS (11 Comments, most recent shown first)

jake
my bad on part of my above comment - I should read everything in detail first. :)
8:13 PM Feb 10th
 
jake
Bill, the Pirates staff has added Donnely and Dotel, Capps is gone, and Crosby and Church have been added to the position side.
3:00 PM Feb 10th
 
BringBackTriandos
Matt Weiters is listed twice. He's that good?
10:10 AM Feb 10th
 
jollydodger
This is a beatufiul post. Tons of players with a single integer attached brings me joy.
Might we call this a "Going Forward" list, instead of "Young Talent"? We have 30+ year-old players who are strong and will contribute going forward over the next 3-4 years, but aren't young. Just a thought.
5:28 PM Feb 8th
 
hotstatrat
Along the lines of ventboys suggestion - using a combination of Minor League translations and something like "highest prospect rating" would solve both issues. You need MLE to account for how well a player is actually succeeding even if it is in the minors leagues. Just because a player is in the minors, doesn't mean he is less than many players who are in the Majors. It is often the case of his team preferring to get him regular playing time or keeping him away from arbitration/free agency rather than simply merit. The prospect rating is necessary to indicate how much potential that player really has to become an effective Major Leaguer. Some MLEs will look statistically at which players generally adapt best to the Majors and adjust them accordingly, though, I think that the scouting element more directly inherent in the top prospect lists is still a better inidcator of future Major League ability - epsecially when it comes to pitchers.

By the way, ventboys, how would you use this for your fantasy league? (I tried to make this posting earlier, but it seems I was logged out - sorry if this was posted twice.)
10:14 AM Feb 8th
 
jwilt
I think the two flaws mentioned at the end of the article are very significant. They lead to some conclusions that are frankly ridiculous, and probably influence the overall standings significantly. In the Orioles' listings Matt Wieters, who was probably the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago, is less valuable than 30-something platoon DH Luke Scott, or Garrett Atkins in the midst of a multi-year freefall. Felix Pie, who may actually be a league-average CFer is rated equal with Cla Meredith, who is about a half-inch above replacement level.

Until these flaws can be addressed I think you have to take the results with a giant grain of salt.
11:52 AM Feb 3rd
 
OBM
I think you should have separated the prospects from the major league players. The Giants are shown as having the third best compilation of young talent, but over 500 points of that is comprised of minor league prospects, and most of that is pitching talent, which you know has a much lower chance of making it in the majors. Remove that 500 points (which is the highest of any team) and the Giants show up where they really are, bottom third of the league.
4:48 PM Feb 2nd
 
MWeddell
The Tigers would be even worse if one subtracts Edwin Jackson, Lyon, and Rodney and adds in Max Scherzer.
3:22 PM Feb 2nd
 
cderosa
Average team:
2000 AL
1949 NL

2162 NL West
2146 AL East
2043 NL East
1922 AL West
1916 AL Central
1692 NL Central

I was prepared for the conclusion that the NL West might have the best young talent in the game, as Steve Treder wrote a persuasive piece in the latest Hardball Times Annual arguing just that.

The rising talent of the NL East is more of a surprise to me, and maybe augurs a more competitive NL in the near future.

The lack of young talent in the NL Central is uniform: they have the lowest-scoring first-place team (Cubs), the lowest-scoring 2nd-place team (Mil), lowest 3rd-placers (StL), and missed by a total of one and two points respectively having the lowest 4th and 5th place teams, before you even get to the last-place Astros.

Pity the Orioles. Here is a team ostensibly committed to a youth movement (Tejada notwithstanding) and they still have the least young talent in their division.


9:35 AM Feb 2nd
 
rpriske
Desmond Jennings is a Blue Jay?

Did I miss something?
8:35 AM Feb 2nd
 
ventboys
This works just fine for what it is meant to do, and I am going to use it for my fantasy drafts. Thanks, Bill, I appreciate that you are doing this in the middle of the crunch to publishing for the Gold Mine.

What I have to add isn't very important. Just a couple of suggestions and one observation:

With young position players especially, defensive potential probably matters. It's one thing to have offensive potential, but another thing to be able to put that bat at a key defensive position. Is there a way to weight this for the current spot on the defensive spectrum? As you said specific cases don't matter in the long run, but it might matter if one team is loaded but at the back end of the spectrum while another is loaded with talent up the middle.

Your (1) might be addressed by using your well established minor to major transition numbers for players in AA and maybe even in high A leagues. It will increase the chaos factor, but it might catch some of the prospects that are missing from the study.

Your (2) might be fixed by setting some kind of "past prospect" number that gets watered down by repeated failure at the major league level.

This isn't germaine to the study, just an observation, but I was surprised at the relatively low numbers for the Tampa pitching staff and prospects. They just spit out Wade Davis, Jeff Neimann and David Price. Garza was 25 last year, Shields 27. McGee will be back and there are others. I am not making any quibbles at all. I was simply a bit surprised.
1:46 AM Feb 2nd
 
 
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