This started as a preview of the AL East, and then I got a bit sidetracked making graphs on Microsoft Excel. A quick preview of the division appears further down the page…it’s brief. I’m sorry.
We’re starting today with a question: can the American League East, as it is currently structured, survive? More specifically, can certain teams within the AL East thrive and prosper?
Right now there are four five-team divisions in baseball: the AL East and Central, and the NL East and West. Let’s look at the payrolls for, say, the AL Central. Let’s take a broad view: team payroll over the last five years:
As you can see, the AL Central is fairly evenly distributed: the Royals, the team that has spent the least in the division, paid out 15% of the division’s payroll over the last half-decade.
With five teams, the best distribution would be 20%...the AL Central is close to that. The White Sox and Tigers spend more money than the Indians, Twins, and Royals, but they’re not blowing the other organizations out of the water.
Even given the small sample size of five seasons, it is obvious that divisions that have more equality in payroll are more competitive: you can root for the ‘have-not’ Twins and have some faith that your team will be competitive in their division.
Okay…AL East now:
As the AL East stands now, there are three contending teams (Rays, Yankees, Red Sox), and two non-contending teams (Blue Jays, Orioles). That’s the reality: neither Toronto nor Baltimore is in any position to challenge the two big dogs in the division.
In terms of payroll, however, the Red Sox and Yankees are swamping the Rays: the Yankees have spent about 4.5 times as much on payroll over the last five years as the Rays have. The Sox have spent three times as much as Tampa Bay.
The Rays have the talent to challenge the Red Sox and Yankees, but how long can they keep that talent? The Rays payroll was about $66 million last year, half that of the Red Sox and a third of what the Yankees paid out. Their revenue, as reported by Forbes, was $160 million last season, good for 26th in the majors. The Yankees and Red Sox were ranked #1 and #2, at $376 and $269 million. The Rays have Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano and Pat Burrell becoming free agents at the end of this year.
The Rays drew 1.8 million fans last year, good for 23rd in the major leagues. The Yankees and Red Sox were each over 3 million, and seats at Fenway or the new Stadium are considerably more expensive than tickets to the Trop.
The Rays have done a brilliant job of contending against two of the wealthiest teams in baseball. But the team is fighting a losing battle. The gap between the haves and have-nots in the AL East is widening.
One could argue that the cause isn’t hopeless for the Orioles, Rays, or Jays. After all, the distribution of wins over those five years isn’t nearly as dramatic as the distribution of salary:
AL East teams have won a total of 2076 games over the past five seasons: Boston and New York have had their lion’s share of those victories, but the Jays have won their share, and the Rays aren’t too far back. This is a pretty even distribution of wins.
Of course, just because the Jays have won an average of 82 games a year doesn’t mean they’ve had a realistic shot at the playoffs. They haven’t come close to making the playoffs over the last five years.
We’ve had weighted schedules since 2002: this has put an excessive burden on the franchises stuck in the AL East. Let’s look at the W-L records of those teams within the AL East. How are the teams playing against each other? 
The Yankees and Red Sox have been above .500 during each of the nine seasons that we’ve had a weighted system: they have feasted on their poorer brethren in the division. New York has averaged 16 wins above .500 since the weighted schedule began, while Boston has averaged +11. Neither team has come close to being under .500 within their division.
Two teams have broken through the Yankee/Red Sox dominance: the Jays finished with a better record than Boston in 2006, and the Rays topped both New York and Boston in 2008. The Orioles have been under .500 within the division every year of the weighted schedule.
Here are each team’s overall totals, and their nine-year averages:
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Yankees
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Red Sox
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Blue Jays
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Rays
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Orioles
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Total +/- .500, 2002-09
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141
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102
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-23
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-101
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-119
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Avg. Games +/- .500
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16
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11
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-3
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-11
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-13
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The Yankees and Red Sox are well above .500, while the Rays and Orioles are well below .500. The Jays are stuck in the middle, but they dropped to 24 games under .500 last year, worse than even the lowly Orioles. That suggests that the Jays are in for a stint in the cellar.
There are arguments to be made that the AL East can survive as it is currently structured: after all, the Rays are strong contenders this year, and they won the division in 2008.
Frankly, though, I don’t think I believe it. In nine years of the weighted schedule, the Yankees have seven 1st-place finishes and one 2nd-place finish: they have made the playoffs eight times in nine years. The Red Sox have one 1st-place finish and seven 2nd-place finishes: they have made the playoffs six times.
The Yankees have an 89% success rate at making the playoffs, while the Red Sox come in at 67%. Combined, that’s fourteen playoff appearances in eighteen years: a 78% success rate
The Rays, Orioles, and Jays, over the course of twenty-seven seasons, have made one playoff appearance. That’s a 4% success rate.
I’m a Red Sox fan: I’m lucky that my team is one of the ‘haves’ in the AL East. I’m fortunate to root for a team that has a good chance to make the playoffs every year. In seven years, the Red Sox will probably be contenders. In fifty years, they will still exist.
I don’t know if the same is true for the Orioles, Jays, or Rays. The Rays are the shining hope for parity in the AL East, but let’s consider their chances of contending with the Sox and Yankees for much longer: they have a payroll that wouldn’t cover two players on the Yankees. They have a fan-base that is small (though it’s building), a stadium that is depressing, and they play in a state where it isn’t clear that baseball can survive. The Rays have a ton of talent: they are going to lose a lot of that talent very quickly, and they will lose some of that talent to their rivals to the north.
The Blue Jays: I think if the Jays stay in the AL East, then baseball is doomed in Canada. Were they an AL Central team, they’d be able to survive this rebuilding stage because they would’ve been strong contenders in 2002, 2006, and 2008. In the AL East, the period of rebuilding that is ahead might kill the franchise. When the Jays lose 90 games three or four years in a row, are people going to keep coming to the Sky Dome? They might not. I love the Jays and I love Canada, but I’m not optimistic.
The Orioles have a great park, and a deep fan base. They have more money than the Rays, and they have a bit of young talent. But they’ve already endured the longest losing streak in the history of the franchise, and I don’t know that they have the talent to contend anytime soon.
A Modest Proposal
Is there a solution?
I think there is. Realign the divisions based on salary. Do it every five years.
Right now that would make the divisions look like this:
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Division 1
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Division 2
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Division 3
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Yankees
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Angels
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Braves
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Mets
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Phillies
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White Sox
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Cubs
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Astros
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Cardinals
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Red Sox
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Dodgers
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Giants
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Tigers
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Mariners
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Indians
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Division 4
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Division 5
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Division 6
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Blue Jays
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Royals
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A's
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Brewers
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Rangers
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Nationals
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Rockies
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Orioles
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Pirates
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Diamondbacks
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Twins
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Padres
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Reds
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Rays
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Marlins
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Okay…the first division isn’t looking any easier: the Red Sox and Yankees will still destroy those other guys. But at least the other teams are spending close to the same amount to compete.
Division Two looks fun: about the only non-contender is the Astros. Division Three would have the Cardinals as the favorites, but every other team would have a shot. Okay…the Indians are still not going to contend.
Division Four is wide open: the two NL West teams would be prohibitive favorites. All of those teams could contend. Division Five has some talent: the Rangers and Twins would have to battle mightily to beat the Rays…I think Baltimore is a heckuva lot closer to competing against Texas than they are to Boston or the Yankees.
Division Six would be a race between the A’s and the Marlins…and you’d have to say that the Nationals, Pirates, and Padres are more realistic contenders in that division then they are in the current structure.
Look: these are major league teams, with fans who pay good money to watch them play. Should we put more effort into insuring that the playing field is level? Isn’t it a tad unfair that the Jays have been locked out of the playoffs for the last decade, when they were quiet possibly the third-best team in the league?
Is it a perfect solution? Nah….there are probably a dozen reasons why this couldn’t work.
But I think it’s equally absurd to have three teams who will never be able to compete financially with Boston and New York, stuck for perpetuity in a division with them. Call me a Socialist, but I think we ought to level the playing field a bit more than we already have. I’m a Red Sox fan, and I think it’s silly that my team gets to beat up on the poorer teams in the East year after year after year. Let’s create some parity.
Quick and Dirty AL East Preview
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The Orioles have four young and talented hitters: three outfielders (Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold) and catcher Matt Weiters. But the team’s pitching is reliant on young arms with little-to-no major league experience. It’s not that I’m not bullish on the futures of Brian Matusz or Brad Bergesen or Chris Tillman…it’s just difficult to think that they’ll outpitch the likes of Buchholz and Lester and Lackey and Beckett in Boston, or Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez, and Hughes in New York. Not anytime soon, at least.
The Orioles lost 98 games last year: I think they’ll improve on that, and rise out of the cellar. But they’re a long way from the top, and the climb is pretty damned steep.
Prediction: Fourth place.
BOSTON RED SOX
Well, we’ll have a good chance to see how effective John Dewan’s metrics are this season….
I have a lot of friends and relatives in Boston who spent the good part of the winter griping to me about the offseason: I told them that it was a great offseason for Boston.
Let’s look at the three major positional changes: Beltre replaces Lowell at third, Cameron replaces Bay in the outfield, and Scutaro replaces Green/Alex Gonzalez at shortstop.
Strictly in terms of offense, it looks like the Sox treaded water: Scutaro is a significant upgrade at short, but Beltre could do worse at the plate than Mike Lowell and Mike Cameron is almost certain to hit worse than Jason Bay.
The buzz among writers is that the Red Sox looked at defense this offseason: I suspect that’s only partially true: I think the Red Sox are trying to see players in as broad a view as possible: they are considering all of the variables - offense and defense and speed and age and cost and various contexts – and are making decisions based on those variables.
We have a stat called “Total Runs” on this website: let’s look at Boston’s moves through that lens:
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Runs Created
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SB Runs
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Def. Runs Saved
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Pos. Avg.
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Total Runs
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Beltre
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47
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-1
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21
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17
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84
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Lowell
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63
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1
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-18
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16
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62
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Lowell created more runs with the bat than Beltre did in 2009….and Lowell gave all of ‘em away with the glove. Beltre was a stellar fielder: he has routinely been one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. Last year he saved his team 21 runs. The year before Beltre saved 24 runs on defense. Lowell gave up 18 runs…so strictly in terms of defense, Beltre is an improvement of nearly forty runs on Mike Lowell.
Offensively, Beltre created just 47 runs last year. That was actually uncharacteristic of Beltre: in previous seasons he’s created 81, 87, and 90 runs at the plate. He had an off-year, but there is a good chance he will bounce back in friendly Fenway: Lowell was worth 62 runs last year: there is a good chance that Beltre’s offense and defense will tally to around 100 runs this year: that’s an upgrade of thirty- to forty-runs.
Moving on…
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Runs Created
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SB Runs
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Def. Runs Saved
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Pos. Avg.
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Total Runs
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Cameron
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83
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-2
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3
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26
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110
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Bay
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109
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2
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-2
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17
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126
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Of course Mike Cameron isn’t as good as Jason Bay.
But he’s closer than anyone thinks. He’s about fifteen to twenty runs short of Bay. Bay, of course, is costing the Mets $66 million dollars over the next four years. Cameron is costing Boston $15 million over two seasons.
Plus…having Cameron allows Boston to move Jacoby Ellsbury (-9 Defensive Runs Saved last year) to left: the defense in the outfield gets stronger.
Finally:
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Runs Created
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SB Runs
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Def. Runs Saved
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Pos. Avg.
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Total Runs
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Scutaro
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92
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-1
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13
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31
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135
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Green/Gonz.
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45
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2
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-8
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31
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70
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Alright, so most of us should be wary about any ‘fix’ at shortstop (I half-think that the one-day signing of Nomar Garciaparra was an effort to lift the organization’s curse at that position). Still, the upgrade of Scutaro over Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez is staggering… it is possible that 2009 was a career year for Scutaro: even so, if he is worth even 100 Total Runs in 2010, that’s a big improvement over 2009.
In terms of pitching, the Red Sox again have a plethora of arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Lester, Beckett, and Lackey are all reliably great pitchers. Dice-K remains enigmatic, but Clay Buchholz was impressive last year. Tim Wakefield is just 18 wins short of becoming the team’s all-time leader in wins, and Boof Bonser can be relied on to make starts if any of the others go down with injuries. In the pen, the Red Sox have four pitchers who could close for other major league teams: Papelbon, Bard, Ramon Ramirez, and Okajima.
Prediction: First place.
NEW YORK YANKEES
The Yankee team is old.
Ah, but we’ve been saying that for years now, and nothing’s come of it.
On offense, the Yankees are old at catcher (Posada turns 38), shortstop (Jeter turns 36), third (A-Rod is 34). Nick Johnson is 31…let’s call that middle aged. Teixeira turns the big 3-0 in April. Granderson and Nick Swisher both turn 29 this year. Those guys might surprise and have the best year of their careers, but they might not. Cano is 27: he’s in the prime of his career. Brett Gardner is 26.
Sabathia is twenty-nine: he should be effective. Pettitte is 38; Vazquez and Burnett are each 34. I am certain their best years are behind them. Phil Hughes is twenty-four: if they give him the job he should do very well, but that’s a big ‘if’ for the Yankees: they don’t have a great track record sticking with young starters.
Mariano Rivera is forty, and you wouldn’t know it. Had he pitched during the 1980’s, when the major awards went to relief pitchers by default, he would’ve won a lot of hardware. He’ll settle for the rings, I suppose.
I’ve always thought age would catch up to the Yankees, but the Bronx Bombers did a good job of shedding some of their older players (Damon, Matsui). They resigned Pettitte, but they acquired the uber-reliable Javier Vazquez in case age catches up to Andy.
The Yankees could repeat, but I’m sticking with the younger clubs: I’m not sold on Granderson as a great player, and having a thirty-six year old shortstop batting leadoff seems like a bad plan. Then again, I love the signings of Johnson and Vazquez (or: I would love those moves, if I liked the Yankees), and all reports suggest that Hughes is getting a shot: they could win. Of course.
Prediction: Third place.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
I want the Rays to win the AL East.
Looking at the team’s offense as a lineup, the Rays have the most logical one in the East. They have two high on-base guys (Bartlett, Zobrist), two boppers (Pena, Longoria) and two speed/power types in Carl Crawford and BJ Upton. It’s a diverse lineup: they can put runs on the board in all sorts of ways.
There are two scenarios for the Rays this year: they go for a title, or they start selling off parts. Certainly, they have the talent to win the AL East, but if they fall out of contention early, they will be quick to move Crawford and Pena. As someone who roots for the have-nots of the world, I hope the first scenario plays out in 2010.
Prediction: Second, Wild Card.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Blue Jays scored 798 runs last year. They allowed 771 runs to score. That translates to an expected W-L record of 84-78. They were nine games below that: they finished the season75-87.
So they’re not that bad. Still, the Jays lost two of their most valuable players last year (Halladay and Scutaro). It will be tough for Toronto to contend in 2010. Sorry, Jays fans.
Prediction: 5th place.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago, IL. He welcomes comments, questions, and Boof Bonser game-worn jerseys here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.