On April 7th, Rich Harden made his first start as a member of the Texas Rangers. The mercurial Harden faced 19 batters during his outing, striking out eight, walking four, hitting one, and allowing a homerun.
That’s a strange game: as St. Louis Cardinal’s blogger Fungoes pointed out, 73.8% of the batters Harden faced did not put the ball into play. That’s a remarkable number. In Roger Clemens’ first 20-strikeout game, 21 out of 30 batters didn’t put the ball into play (70%). In his second 20-strikeout game, only 20 out of 32 batters didn’t put the ball in play (62.5%). Clemens needed his defense more than Harden did.
I’ve always been fascinated by Rich Harden. Okay…let me put it another way: every year I draft Harden on my fantasy baseball team. I always take a gamble on him. I’m always thinking Harden is going to break out and have that big year.
He hasn’t had it yet, and he hasn’t come particularly close. Over the last five seasons, Harden has averaged a little less than 100 innings pitched. That’s fine for a 1970’s closer, but it's a little low for an elite starter.
There is no question that Harden is extremely talented at striking out batters. As of right now he ranks sixth all-time among starting pitchers in strikeouts per 9 innings. Here’s the list:
Rk.
|
Name
|
K/9 IP
|
1
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.61
|
2
|
Mark Prior
|
10.37
|
3
|
Tim Lincecum
|
10.18
|
4
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10.04
|
5
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.55
|
6
|
Rich Harden
|
9.35
|
That’s good company. Unfortunately, Harden has a nasty habit of walking batters: he has a career mark of 3.97 walks per 9 innings pitched. Here’s where he ranks on that list:
Rk.
|
Name
|
BB/9 IP
|
125
|
Dick Fowler
|
3.99
|
126
|
Jim Parque
|
3.98
|
127
|
Paul Foytack
|
3.98
|
128
|
Rich Harden
|
3.97
|
129
|
Faus. Carmona
|
3.96
|
130
|
John Maine
|
3.96
|
131
|
Bob Weiland
|
3.96
|
It’s one thing to be on a list with Randy Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Pedro Martinez, and Nolan Ryan. But sharing company with Dick Fowler, Jim Parque, and Bob Weiland offsets Harden’s high ranking on the other list.
His high placement on both lists, coupled with his utter disdain for the concept of ‘letting the defense make the play’ had me wondering: where does Harden rank among the all-time leaders in eschewing defense?
Three True Outcomes
‘Three True Outcomes’ is a term coined by Rany Jazayerli, in an article published on the Baseball Prospectus website backin 2000. Under pressure from minions of the Rob Deer fan club, Jazayerli outlined a formula to measure a hitter’s TTO percentage:
(HR+BB+SO)/(AB+BB)
TTO% captures the pure events from a batter/pitcher confrontation: the three ‘true’ events where defense has no bearing on the results.
The hitting leaders in TTO% are predictable: Mark McGwire, Gorman Thomas and Sam Horn were all members of the club. Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Dunn are modern representative of the group.
Harden’s weird pitching gem on April 7th rates a TTO% of 73.6 by the formula:
(1 HR + 5 BB + 8 SO)/(14 AB + 5 BB)
Over his career, Harden has TTO% of 38.6. At this writing, 2780 players have notched at-bats against Harden, who has struck out 793, walked 337, and given up 72 homeruns.
(72 HR + 337 BB + 793 SO)/(2780 AB + 337 BB) = 38.6
Harden’s TTO% is lower than the percentages for guys like Mark Reynolds (49.7%) or the immortal Jack Cust (55.0%).
What if we phrase the numbers as ratios? Per homeruns, Harden allows 4.6 walks and gets 11.0 strikeouts. How does that compare to the hitters?
Harden 1 : 4.6 : 11.0
Cust 1 : 3.7 : 6.8
Reynolds 1 : 2.0 : 6.2
The big difference is strikeouts: Harden allows more walks than either Cust or Reynolds get, but Harden gets ‘em back by having almost twice as many strikeouts.
So Harden doesn’t quite rank with the Jack Custs of the world. How does he do against other pitchers? Who are the all-time leaders in pitcher TTO%?
TTO% - Relief Pitchers
To keep things simple, I’ll start with the relief pitchers. Here are the relief pitchers with the highest Three True Outcome Percentages (minimum 600 IP).
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
1
|
Brad Lidge
|
1950
|
714
|
239
|
51
|
45.9
|
2
|
Armd. Benitez
|
2788
|
946
|
403
|
95
|
45.3
|
3
|
Billy Wagner
|
2993
|
1098
|
278
|
78
|
44.5
|
4
|
Octavio Dotel
|
2839
|
943
|
348
|
100
|
43.6
|
5
|
Ugueth Urbina
|
2567
|
814
|
307
|
86
|
42.0
|
6
|
Troy Percival
|
2550
|
781
|
306
|
85
|
41.0
|
7
|
Mark Clear
|
2950
|
804
|
554
|
60
|
40.5
|
8
|
Jeff Nelson
|
2832
|
829
|
428
|
55
|
40.2
|
9
|
Dick Radatz
|
2507
|
745
|
296
|
65
|
39.5
|
10
|
Eric Gagne
|
2366
|
718
|
226
|
76
|
39.4
|
In all, eight closer surpass the 40% mark in TTO, lead by the (sometimes) great Brad Lidge.
These are good relievers: nine of the ten players listed above made All-Star teams as relief pitchers. Gagne won a Cy Young, Lidge had a perfect season, and Dick Radatz had three monster years as a closer in Boston. Octavio Dotel is the only non-All-Star: Dotel has averaged 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings pitched over a long career.
The next ten relievers are Joe Nathan, Tom Heinke, Eric Plunk, Robb Nen, Mike Remlinger, Kyle Farnsworth, Francisco Cordero, Randy Myers, Arthur Rhodes, and Duane Ward. I assume that you know a few of those guys, too.
Lidge has the highest career TTO of any pitcher. I thought that his dreadful 2009 season would’ve contributed mightily to that career mark, but Lidge’s 2009 TTO% was just 38.9, about six percentage points below his career average. Interestingly, Lidge posted a TTO% of 44.9 in 2009, when he went a perfect 41-for-41 in save chances.
Let’s get to the starters.
TTO% - Starting Pitchers
Here are starters #20 thru #11 in career TTO%:
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
20
|
A.J. Burnett
|
5930
|
1479
|
669
|
148
|
34.8
|
19
|
Darren Dreifort
|
3292
|
802
|
389
|
90
|
34.8
|
18
|
Erik Bedard
|
3125
|
801
|
325
|
75
|
34.8
|
17
|
Johan Santana
|
6403
|
1741
|
478
|
188
|
35.0
|
16
|
Jake Peavy
|
5117
|
1373
|
446
|
138
|
35.2
|
15
|
Sid Fernandez
|
6793
|
1743
|
715
|
191
|
35.3
|
14
|
J.R. Richard
|
5788
|
1493
|
770
|
73
|
35.6
|
13
|
Sandy Koufax
|
8546
|
2396
|
817
|
204
|
36.5
|
12
|
Hideo Nomo
|
7370
|
1918
|
908
|
251
|
37.2
|
11
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10355
|
3154
|
760
|
239
|
37.4
|
Again, we have some fine pitchers on the list. Pedro Martinez, Sandy Koufax, and Johan Santana all won multiple Cy Young Awards. Peavy is a Cy Young winner, and Hideo Nomo was a Rookie-of-the Year. J.R. Richard had two 300-strikeout seasons. Darren Dreifort….he timed his walk-year well.
We’ll do a countdown of the rest:
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
10
|
Scott Kazmir
|
3289
|
900
|
392
|
88
|
37.5
|
Kazmir ranks tenth on the all-time list: his strikeout rate has declined in each of the last three seasons, while his walk rate has remained steady at around 3.8 per 9 innings pitched. For Kazmir to remain an effective pitcher, he’ll need to cut that walk rate. If he does that, there’s a chance he’ll drop out of the top-ten on the TTO% list.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
9
|
Sam McDowell
|
9059
|
2453
|
1312
|
164
|
37.9
|
The character of Sam Malone on ‘Cheers’ was loosely based on Sam McDowell…I didn’t know that until just now.
Like Bob Feller before him and Nolan Ryan after, Sudden Sam McDowell was uncompromising on the mound: per nine innings pitched he averaged 4.7 walks and 8.9 strikeouts, in an era when strikeouts were hard to come by.
A pitcher who walks a lot of batters pitches on a tightrope of sorts: among pitchers with over 2000 career innings, McDowell ranks 3rd in BB/9 IP. Nolan Ryan ranks 4th, and Bob Feller ranks 9th.
And you know what? All of those guys pitched in contexts that helped ‘em get away with the walks. Feller walked a ton of guys…but he also whiffed a ton of guys. He dominated the league….when Feller struck out 348 hitters in 1946, only one other pitcher in the league had half that total.
Same thing with Ryan: he walked a ton of guys, but he struck out a ton of guys. And Ryan was helped in Anaheim, which was a pitcher’s park, and he was helped a lot in the Astrodome, where it was just about impossible for anyone to hit a homerun.
McDowell was helped by pitching in a low-offense era: he could get away with leading the league in walks for five years because nobody was doing much with the bats.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
8
|
Rich Harden
|
2780
|
793
|
337
|
72
|
38.6
|
Here’s Rich Harden: he has a chance to rank a little higher on this list, depending on how the rest of his career plays out.
There’s a chance that Harden puts it together. He’s only twenty-eight years old; Randy Johnson didn’t figure things out until he was 29. Johnson, when he was 28, posted a strikeout rate of 10.3 per 9 innings pitched, but a walk rate of 6.1. A year later he cut the walk rate to 3.5 and came in second in the AL Cy Young race.
Harden’s throw 767 innings in the major leagues…Koufax needed that many before he figured things out. Nolan Ryan threw 500 major league innings before he learned to control his stuff enough to be an effective pitcher. It’s not impossible that Harden comes around.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
7
|
Tim Lincecum
|
2228
|
693
|
218
|
34
|
38.6
|
And here’s why I always draft Rich Harden: I keep waiting for him to turn into Tim Lincecum.
Lincecum and Harden have the same TTO%, and they have nearly the same strikeout and walk rates (Lincecum has averaged 10.2 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per 9 innings pitched, while Harden has averaged 9.4/4.0). The most sizeable difference in rate stats between Harden and Lincecum in the number of homeruns allowed: Lincecum is at 0.5 HR per 9 IP, while Harden has allowed almost twice that rate (0.9 per 9 IP).
The differences are small: 0.8 strikeouts, 0.8 walks, and 0.4 homeruns per nine innings pitched. Taking into consideration that Lincecum pitches in the NL, the rate stats between Harden and Lincecum are even closer than they appear. Yet Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young winner on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory, while Rich Harden has been a bust.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
6
|
Mark Prior
|
2475
|
757
|
223
|
77
|
39.2
|
We’ll get to him in a second…
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
5
|
Nolan Ryan
|
19265
|
5714
|
2795
|
321
|
40.0
|
Most pitchers with a high TTO% have short careers: only three starters out of the top-twenty have 10,000+ at-bats against them (Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson being the other two). Ryan laps the competition….
Who is the hitting equivalent of Ryan? In terms of TTO% hitters, it’s probably Adam Dunn: I don’t know that any hitter has been as successful at keeping baseballs away from the defense for as long as Adam Dunn has.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
4
|
Oliver Perez
|
4001
|
1095
|
590
|
158
|
40.1
|
When Oliver Perez was 22 years old, he posted a 2.98 ERA in 196 innings, striking out 239 batters. That’s a good year for a 22-year old pitcher to have. Through that point in his career, Perez has pitched 412 major league innings, and had struck out an incredible 474 batters. He hasn’t been as effective since.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
3
|
Randy Johnson
|
15159
|
4875
|
1497
|
411
|
40.7
|
There are four clear Hall-of-Famers on the list: Koufax, Ryan, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson. We can add Johan Santana to that list, as he’ll almost certainly be elected. And Tim Lincecum has a good start towards the Hall. Jake Peavy still has a puncher’s chance, I suppose.
Seven out of twenty. Not too bad. There are sixteen Cy Young Awards among the top-twenty pitchers in TTO%.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
2
|
Herb Score
|
3057
|
837
|
573
|
79
|
41
|
Who would’ve had the better career, Herb Score or Mark Prior?
I suppose that question deserves a column of its own, but we’ll give it a brief shot here.
Herb Score, as all of you know, was a brilliant young lefty for the Cleveland Indians, who was nearly killed by a Gil McDougald line drive. A few folks believethat the line drive ended his career, because it makes sense that it would end his career. But Score’s career was actually finished by an arm injury suffered two years later, in 1959.
Mark Prior, the #2 pick in the 2001 draft, has a slightly more complicated injury history, which I won’t get into here. It is possible that his arm troubles started during his collision with Marcus Giles in 2003, or from his overuse during the 2003 regular and postseason.
Here are Score’s first two seasons in the big leagues:
Year
|
Age
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
K
|
ERA+
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
1955
|
22
|
16-10
|
2.85
|
227.1
|
245
|
141
|
6.1
|
9.7
|
1956
|
23
|
20-9
|
2.53
|
249.1
|
263
|
166
|
4.7
|
9.5
|
As you can see, Score dominated the league, leading the AL in strikeouts both years and posting an ERA well under 3.00. He also walked a ton of batters: as a rookie he averaged 6.1 walks per 9 innings, a rate he lowered to 4.7 during his second year.
Here’s Prior:
Year
|
Age
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
K
|
ERA+
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
2002
|
21
|
6-6
|
3.32
|
116.2
|
147
|
122
|
2.9
|
11.3
|
2003
|
22
|
18-6
|
2.43
|
211.1
|
245
|
179
|
2.1
|
10.4
|
Prior didn’t lead the league in any category, but Prior showed far better control during his first two years in the majors.
Who would’ve had the better career? I think Prior was probably the better pitcher, but contexts would have given an edge to Score. Baseball was heading towards an era of historically low offensive output when Score was injured: had he avoided injury, the bulk of Score’s career would have been during that era. In contrast, Prior’s career would have overlapped a high-offense era, and he would’ve spent at least a portion of that career in homer-friendly Wrigley. The walks wouldn’t have hurt Score too much (after all, he was able to post sub-3.00 ERA in 1955 and 1956 while walking a batter every other inning). The offense and the park might’ve hurt Prior. Plus Score had a few 200-inning seasons under his belt…push come to shove, I think Score would’ve had the better career.
Rk.
|
Name
|
AB
|
K
|
BB
|
HR
|
TTO %
|
1
|
Kerry Wood
|
4612
|
1470
|
605
|
138
|
42.4
|
Wood has 1116.2 innings as a starter, 157.2 as a relief pitcher, so he belongs with the starters for now. He made 178 starts, 156 relief appearances, so another year and there’ll be room for debate. Right now, Kerry is #1.
And just to come full circle: in Wood’s 20-strikeout game, 21 out of 29 batters failed to put the ball into play (20 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch). That is a TTO% of 72.4...that’s still below the 73.8 TTO% of Rich Harden’s first outing.
So there’s time for Harden to catch up.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago, IL. He welcomes comments, questions, and logarithms proving the clutchiness Darnell McDonald here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com