The calendar has rolled over to November, and with the World Series decided, it is time to shift our thoughts to the end-of-season awards.
Today I’ll start by looking at what is surely the most contentious and fascinating award of 2010. For this particular award there are two candidates who deserve our attention, two candidates whose exceptional 2010 campaigns vaulted them ahead of a terrific pack. What is particularly interesting is that these two players appear in such stark contrast to one another. In choosing between them, we are not just trying to determine the better player, but are confronting our core beliefs about the very game of baseball.
Into the fray we go.
The Slugger or the Stinger?
Who would you take? Without any more information, would you rather have a sluggardly slugger or a stinging singler? Raw, brutish power, or patience, discipline and precision?
Player A in this debate is a sluggardly slugger. He led his league in homeruns. Actually, that doesn’t do him any justice: Player A obliterated the rest of the majors…he out-homered his opponents by a Ruthian order of magnitude. In addition to his homeruns, Player A led in that most lauded statistic, the RBI. His Isolated Power (Slugging Percentage – Batting Average) was a staggering sixty-five points higher than the next player on the list.
Player B did not hit an impressive number of homeruns. But Player B led the league in batting average, hits, singles, and doubles. Player B had the second-best contact rate in the league last year…he struck out half as often as Player A. Player B’s batting average was 110 points higher than Player A.
One hundred and ten points is the difference between Mario Mendoza and Ty Cobb.
So who would you take?
I haven’t mentioned their names yet, but I’m sure that you’ve guessed them by now. And I’m sure you’ve figured out the award we’re talking about, too.
So let’s go ahead and look at the raw numbers.
|
Name
|
AB
|
Hits
|
2B
|
HR
|
Runs
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
BA
|
|
D. Haren
|
55
|
20
|
6
|
1
|
8
|
7
|
1
|
9
|
.364
|
|
Gallardo
|
63
|
16
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
10
|
5
|
17
|
.254
|
Just looking at the more traditional numbers, Yovani Gallardo has an edge over Dan Haren. Gallardo led the league in homeruns…actually, he was the only pitcher in baseball who hit more than one dinger this year. He also led the league in RBI’s.
Looking at the more advanced metrics, Haren closes the gap:
|
Name
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
|
Haren
|
.364
|
.375
|
.528
|
.902
|
137
|
1.0
|
|
Gallardo
|
.254
|
.329
|
.508
|
.837
|
124
|
1.1
|
Even with Gallardo notching five walks to Haren’s one, Haren has the much higher on-base percentage. And: Haren has the higher slugging percentage…even though Gallardo out-homered him 4-to-1, Haren had the better slugging percentage, thanks to his edge in singles (13 to 8) and doubles (6 to 4).
The one squabble I have with Haren’s season is the astonishing luck that went into it: Dan Haren had a batting-average-on-balls-in-play (BABIP) of .422, which is really high. Basically, the defense took a break when Haren came up.
(Interestingly, Haren’s BABIP was the third-highest among pitchers. Mike Leake of Cincinnati had a staggering .485 BABIP….you could say that he found the leakes in opposing defenses. And Chris Naverson of the Brewers posted a .471 BABIP…Naverson? He was always on.)
So who should win the Pitchers’ Silver Slugger Award for 2010?
A Nod to Big-Z
Just a brief aside: Carlos Zambrano has won three of the last four Silver Slugger awards. Actually, he’s owned the Silver Slugger, averaging four homeruns per season in 2006-2009, including a monster 2006 seasons when he hit six homeruns, and a terrific 2008 when he posted a 133 OPS+.
Zambrano slumped at the plate in 2010, posting a .231/.255/.288 line with just one homerun. Actually, he slumped everywhere, but we won’t get into that. His down year left the door open for a new guy to take the award.
Gallardo or Haren?
I know it doesn’t really matter who wins the Pitchers’ Silver Slugger Award, but I’m interested in it. In trying to pick between Haren and Gallardo, one question I had was the importance of a pitcher making contact, versus the bonus of a pitch hitting homeruns. Gallardo’s homeruns are obviously extraordinarily helpful: they are ‘free runs’ in essence, runs that a team has no business expecting.
But Gallardo struck out seventeen times in 2010, while Haren struck out just nine times, in roughly the same number of at-bats. Haren got really lucky on those balls that he put in play, but he should get credit for putting more balls in play than Gallardo did. He was lucky, but he showed considerable skill, too. He had six doubles and a homerun…that’s one more than the Rangers shortstop had in 2010, and Elvis Andrus had ten times as many at-bats.
The Diamondbacks had a .364 hitter in the 9-spot of their lineup whenever Haren took the mound. And Haren is no fluke as a hitter: last year he hit just .247, but had five doubles and a homerun, along with 10 RBI’s.
Still…the four homeruns that Gallardo hit are three more than any other pitcher hit in 2010. Let’s look at each one:
Homerun #1
Date: May 1st
Opposing Pitcher: Mat Latos (2.92 ERA in 2010)
Game Situation: Gallardo’s solo shot in the third inning broke a scoreless game. Also: the homer was in San Diego, the toughest hitter’s park in baseball.
Result of Game: The Brewers won a nail-biter, 2-1. Gallardo went seven innings and struck out 11 Padres batters. He got the win.
Homerun #2
Date: June 2nd
Opposing Pitcher: Taylor Tankersley
Game Situation: Gallardo’s second homerun was a solo shot that deadlocked the game 2-2 in the seventh inning.
Result of Game: The Brewers won. Gallardo gave up just one earned run in seven innings, and got the W.
Homerun #3
Date: June 29th
Opposing Pitcher: Brett Meyers (3.14 ERA, 180 strikeouts in 2010)
Game Situation: Like his first homerun, #3 was a solo shot against a very good pitcher that broke open a scoreless game.
Result of Game: The Brewers won, 7-5. And Gallardo got another ‘W’.
Homerun #4
Date July 27th
Opposing Pitcher: Edinson Volquez (9.6 K’s/9 IP in 2010)
Game Situation: The Reds had a 5-1 lead on Gallardo, but this two-run homer got the Brewers back in it.
Result: Unfortunately, Gallardo’s pitching wasn’t as great as his hitting: Gallardo went just 2.2 innings, allowing six runs to score. The Brewers took the loss, 12-4.
Dan Haren had a remarkable 2010 season. But Yovani Gallardo hit four important homeruns. Three were against very good pitchers (Volquez, Latos, and Meyers), two broke a scoreless game, and one was hit in Petco Park.
Yovani Gallardo deserves the 2010 Silver Slugger.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.