(This article is a companion piece to the article, “The Targeting Phenomenon”. The other article is the first in the sequence; this is the second, although actually I did the research for this one first, then expanded it to the areas covered in that article.)
Who was the unluckiest player in baseball history, in terms of just missing the kind of arbitrary standards we use to define excellence? Magglio Ordonez in 2003 had 99 RBI, 29 homers, 95 runs scored, 192 hits. Gil Hodges in 1957 hit .299 with 98 RBI, 94 runs scored. Dusty Miller in 1898 hit .299 with 99 runs scored. Darrin Erstad in 1997 did exactly the same thing--.299, 99 runs scored. Terry Pendleton in 1992 had 98 runs scored, 199 hits. Donn Clendenon in 1966 hit .299 with 28 homers, 98 RBI. I always notice those things, and I always wonder who missed the most by the least, so to speak.
I set up a system to measure this. I guess I am required to explain the details of the system, but the details are as arbitrary as the standards. I gave a player 20 points for hitting .299, for example, 17 points for hitting .298, 14 points for hitting .297, but to get those points you had to have 400 plate appearances; if you hit .299 in less than 400 plate appearances the points were pro-rated per plate appearance. 90 RBI was one point, 91 RBI two points, 92 RBI three points. . . 99 RBI was twenty points, same with 99 runs scored.
Altogether I gave points in the system for 39 types of near misses (or 38, since the MVP points are the same for hitters and pitchers.) The first twelve were for hitters in a season.
1) Just missing a .300 or .400 batting average.
2) Just missing 100 Runs Scored.
3) Just missing 100 RBI.
4) Doubles total ending in a “9” (three points if your doubles ended in a nine, no matter what the first digit was.)
5) Triples total ending in a “9” (same).
6) Home Run total ending in a “9” (five points).
7) Just missing 100 walks (maximum of five points).
8) Slugging percentage ending with a 99, 98 or 97 (3 points maximum).
9) Just missing the batting title. (20 points for just missing the batting title by one point or less, fewer points for missing the batting title by slightly wider margins. I arbitrarily gave Nap Lajoie 30 points in 1910 for just missing a batting title that subsequent research showed that he had actually won.)
10) Just missing the league home run championship (with a total of 20 or more. I ignored the guys who hit six home runs when the league leader had seven. Maximum of ten points.)
11) Just missing the league RBI lead (Maximum of ten points).
12) Just missing the MVP award. (20 points for finishing within 10% of the winner in the MVP vote.)
I gave points for CAREER batting “misses” in nine categories:
1) A career average of .290 to .299 (Up to 50 points for a career batting average of .299 in a substantial career.)
2) Just missing 3,000 career hits. (Sam Rice was given 96 points for retiring with 2,987 career hits—the largest point award in the system. Anything over 2700 hits earned a point in this category.)
3) Just missing 2,000 career hits (theoretical maximum of 50 points. Del Pratt got 49 points for having 1,996 career hits.)
4) Career home run total ending 90 to 99 (maximum of 20 points).
5) Career doubles total ending 90 to 99 (maximum of 10 points).
6) Career triples total ending 90 to 99 (maximum of 10 points).
7) Career stolen base total ending 90 to 99 (maximum of 10 points).
8) 900 to 999 or 1900 to 1999 career runs scored (theoretical maximum of 50 points, although no one was actually over 39).
9) 900 to 999 or 1900 to 1999 career RBI (same. . .actual maximum was again 39).
Career points were not awarded to active players, for obvious reasons. The maximums for career totals were larger than for season totals, but those are one-time awards. A player just misses 3,000 career hits, I figure that’s a really big miss. But 82% of the points awarded in the system were for season misses.
There were twelve “seasonal” standards for pitchers:
1) Just missing 20 wins or 30 wins (25 points for 19 or 29 wins, 5 points for 18 or 28 wins).
2) Just missing 10 wins (7 points for 9 wins).
3) Just missing 200 innings pitched (maximum of 10 points).
4) Just missing 200 or 300 strikeouts (maximum of 25 points for 199 or 299 strikeouts).
5) Saves ending in a “9” (6 points).
6) ERA just OVER a rung (maximum of 20 points for ending season with a 2.00 or 3.00 ERA, or any number such that getting out one or two more hitters would result in your ERA beginning with a different digit. Full points for ERA required 150 innings pitched or 70 game appearances, and no points were awarded to pitchers with an ERA over 6.00.)
7) Just missed leading the league in Wins (Maximum of 15 points).
8) Just missed leading the league in Strikeouts (Maximum of 10 points).
9) Just missed leading the league in ERA (Maximum of 15 points).
10) Just missed leading the league in Saves (Maximum of 10 points. These points, like “Just missed leading league in home runs”, required a minimum of 20 saves. I didn’t give anyone points for having two saves in a season when the league leader had three.)
11) Just missed the MVP Award (same as for hitters.)
12) Just missed the Cy Young Award (same again).
And there were six categories of awards to pitchers for just missing career totals:
1) Just missing 300 wins (theoretical maximum of 100, but the highest total actually awarded was 60, to Tommy John.)
2) Just missing 200 wins (maximum of 40 points).
3) Just missing 100 wins (maximum of 10 points).
4) Career Saves total ending 90 to 99 (maximum of 10 points).
5) Career ERA ending .00 to .20 (maximum of 20 points).
6) Career strikeout total ending 900 to 999 (maximum of 20 points).
Altogether 143,373 points were awarded through 2006:
65,527 to hitters for just missing season targets,
17,612 to hitters for just missing career targets,
51,490 to pitchers for just missing season targets,
8,744 to pitchers for just missing career targets.
And the Winner Is
Actually, on a certain level it is kind of a dud. What I was looking for was the guys who just missed the numbers that mean glory in baseball. What I found was. . .well, I found those guys, too, but they’re further down the list. At the top of the list of players who just miss the standards of excellence, it turns out, are players who also very regularly hit the standards of excellence and blow right past them. The pitchers who win 19 games most often are the pitchers for whom winning 19 games is no big whoop. Starting with:
1. Greg Maddux (327)
And it’s a no-doubter. It’s a successful study in a sense, I guess, because we learn something that (a) nobody knew until we did the study, and (b) is unquestionably true once you look at it. The arbitrariness of my system is not a problem with regard to the top spot, because Maddux is so far ahead that no matter how you set the standards, within reason, Maddux would win. Greg Maddux has:
Five seasons of 19 wins, plus two seasons if 18 wins, good for a total of 135 points.
One season of 199.1 innings pitched, good for 10 points.
Seasons of 199 strikeouts, 198 strikeouts, 197 strikeouts—in three consecutive years, no less--and another season of 190 strikeouts, good for a total of 76 points.
Seasons with ERAs of 3.00, 3.05 and 4.02, good for a total of 46 points.
Four seasons in which he missed leading the league in Wins by one, good for another 60 points.
Altogether, 327 points—by far the highest total in baseball history. He has no points for just missing Awards, and he has no points yet for career numbers, since he is still active. But, as fantastic as his career has been, he has only two 20-win seasons—but seven near misses in that category. Nobody in history can match that. No other pitcher is within 100 points of his near-miss total.
2. Frank Robinson (279)
Robby retired with 2,943 career hits and a .294 batting average, so he has a total of 106 points for career misses. That’s the third-highest total ever for career misses—and he also has the second-highest total of season misses, 173 points worth.
Robinson had six seasons with home runs ending in a 9. He hit 49 homers, 39, 29 (twice), 19, and 9. He had a .290 average as a rookie in 1956 (1 point), 97 runs scored, 197 hits, 29 doubles and 29 homers in his second season in 1957 (a total of 38 points—one of the highest ever). He hit .297 in 1960. He drove in 91 runs in ’63, 96 runs in ’64. He hit .296 in ’65. He drove in 94 runs in ’67, 99 runs in ’71, and 97 runs in ’73. Lots of players did some of this, but only one hitter—Henry Aaron—did more of it.
Robby’s home run numbers can be summarized this way: He had four seasons in which he averaged more than 40 home runs—but he had only one season in which he actually hit 40 (49, 39, 38 and 37—an average of 40.75). He had “only” six seasons in which he actually drove in 100 runs, but he had 15 seasons in which he averaged more than a hundred.
But while it is unquestionably true that Robinson did miss an unusual number of standards by an unusually thin margin, it is also true of Robinson, as it is of Maddux, that nobody much cared, because everybody knew he was a great player anyway. He doesn’t really represent what I was trying to find.
3. Wally Pipp (228)
This is the guy I was trying to find. You all know what Wally Pipp is famous for, right? It fits perfectly, doesn’t it? He’s the guy on the other side of the story—the guy who got pushed aside, the guy who just missed the standards. He hit .300 a few times, but he hit .296, .295, .291—all of those in seasons of close to 600 at bats. He drove in 93 runs, 97 runs, 90 runs, 99 runs. He scored 96 runs, and, to prove it wasn’t a fluke, did it again the next year. He hit ten or more homers only twice—but nine homers three times. He hit 9 triples—and 19 triples. He wound up his career with
996 RBI
974 runs scored
1941 hits
and 90 home runs.
4. Sam Rice (226)
A lot of that on the career hit total.
5. Randy Johnson (223)
Greg Maddux’ rival for years as the number one pitcher in the National League—and the number two pitcher, behind Maddux, in terms of career near misses. Since he is still active at this writing, he gets no little units for career numbers. If he were to be forced into retirement just short of 300 career wins—which frankly seems likely at this writing—he might vault into second place all-time, ahead of Frank Robinson. But I don’t think he could catch Maddux.
6. Gee Walker (210)
I wish I knew more about Gee Walker. I know that, as a rookie, the Tigers platooned him with his own brother, Hub Walker, making it pretty clear that one of them was going to win the job and the other was going back to the minors. I know that in 1934 he was benched for not hustling, and that by that he missed out on being a regular on the American League championship teams in ’34 and ’35. I know that he was very fast, of course—one of the fastest players of his time—and I know that he is always described in contemporary accounts as a “colorful” player, although I don’t really have a clue why. I know that he was a huge fan favorite in Detroit, like Dixie Walker was in Brooklyn, but again, I don’t really know why, and of course I know that he put up big numbers in ’36 and ’37--.353 and .335 averages, 194 hits and 213, 55 doubles in ’36, 18 homers and 113 RBI in ’37.
But what I hadn’t realized before is that Gee Walker is The Guy that I was looking for—probably even more than Wally Pipp. He had a few markers in the season totals—96 RBI, 95 runs, .290+ averages, etc.—but look at those career numbers. He had:
954 career runs scored
1991 career hits
399 doubles
997 RBI
and a .294 career batting average
He also had 599 extra base hits, although I didn’t give him any credit for that (600 extra base hits is not a recognized standard of excellence, I don’t think.) He made 4,998 career outs, although obviously I didn’t give him any points for that.
If he’d played another week, he could have had 2,000 hits, 400 doubles, 1000 RBI. This really is the guy I was looking for.
7. Henry Aaron (208)
Had even more near-misses in season totals than Robby—a player to whom he was often compared while active.
8. Bert Blyleven (201)
Bert Blyleven is probably the best example of a player who missed the Hall of Fame—or anyway has missed it so far--by falling just short of the arbitrary numbers that people like to make a big deal out of.
9. Jake Beckley (201)
Cut loose by the Cardinals in 1907 with 2,930 career hits—a fact which probably nobody knew at the time, since at that time there was no organized system whatsoever for tracking player career totals.
10. Stan Musial (196)
11. Robin Roberts (196)
12. Al Kaline (195)
Al Kaline never hit 30 homers—but he hit 27 to 29 six times. He just missed the MVP Award in ’55, just missed leading the league in RBI in ’56, and was within ten points of the batting title in ’63. In his career he had 498 doubles, 399 home runs—but, of course, he did hang in there to get his 3,000 career hits.
13. Phil Cavaretta (193)
Cavaretta is the third guy with nines-gone-wild in his career batting line, like Wally Pipp and Gee Walker. He is second behind Walker in career Cigar Points, with
990 runs scored
1977 hits
99 triples
95 homers
920 RBI
and a .293 career average
good for a total of 130 career cigar points, plus 63 for near misses in specific seasons.
14. Rogers Hornsby (193)
15. Mel Ott (193)
16. Harold Baines (192)
The Bert Blyleven of outfielders, he also could be left out of the Hall of Fame by his long string of near-misses, including:
99 RBI in 1983
29 homers, 94 RBI in 1984
198 hits in 1985
a .296 average in 1986
a .293 average and 93 RBI in 1987
a .294 average in 1994
a .299 average in 1995
95 RBI in 1996
17. Al Simmons (188)
18. Sam Crawford (186)
20. Ty Cobb (183)
21. Carl Furillo (181)
Furillo, of coursed, missed a career batting average of .300 by only one hit. This fact is well known, and I actually thought about calling these “Furillo points”. He also had a bunch of seasons of hitting in the .290s (.295, .297, .295, .294, .290, .290) and driving in and scoring 90+ runs (95, 99, and 93 runs scored in consecutive years, with RBI counts including 91, 92, 96 and 95.)
22. Ed Delahanty (180)
23. Mickey Mantle (178)
24. Dante Bichette (177)
I never could stand Dante Bichette, honestly. He hit .340 in 1995 with 40 homers, 128 RBI—but a strikeout/walk ratio of 96 to 22, and they’re Rocky Mountain numbers. It used to drive me crazy to hear people talk about what a great player he was. But he did wind up with a .299 career average, .499 slugging, 934 runs, 1906 hits.
25. Babe Ruth (176)
Most Notable SEASONS
For Cigar Points
Cigar Points, of course, are for “Close, but no cigar”. . .I think I explained that in the companion article, but couldn’t find a way to wedge it in up front here.
Anyway, here again I don’t much like my own answer. But my answer is Derek Jeter, 2006. Jeter gets:
20 points for just missing the MVP Award
14 points for driving in 97 runs
11 points for just missing the batting title
and 3 points for hitting 39 doubles
a total of 48 points.
That’s the number one season by the system I set up, but if I was just making an arbitrary choice, I might be more attracted to Carl Yastrzemski, 1963 (99 runs scored, 191 hits, 19 homers, 94 RBI and a .296 average), or Magglio Ordonez, 2003 (outlined in the opening), or Rod Carew, 1976 (97 runs, 9 homers, 90 RBI, 49 stolen bases, just missed the batting title on the last day of the season). I’ll give you the top 25 near-miss batting seasons:
|
Rank
|
|
Player
|
YEAR
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
Derek Jeter
|
2006
|
|
|
|
2
|
|
Carl Yastrzemski
|
1962
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
Magglio Ordonez
|
2003
|
|
|
|
4
|
|
Rod Carew
|
1976
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
Gil Hodges
|
1957
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
Lou Brock
|
1969
|
|
97 runs, 195 hits, .298 average.
|
|
7
|
|
Jim Bottomley
|
1926
|
|
.299 average, 98 runs scored.
|
|
8
|
|
Jim Ray Hart
|
1967
|
|
98 runs scored, 29 homers, 99 RBI.
|
|
9
|
|
Sal Bando
|
1973
|
|
97 runs cored, 29 homers, 98 RBI.
|
|
10
|
|
Keith Hernandez
|
1980
|
|
99 RBI, 39 doubles, 191 hits, Just missed the batting title.
|
|
11
|
|
Terry Pendleton
|
1992
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
Dusty Miller
|
1898
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
Barry Bonds
|
1991
|
|
95 runs, .292 average, Just Missed leading the league in RBI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
and just missed the MVP Award.
|
|
14
|
|
Heinie Manush
|
1928
|
|
Just missed the batting title AND the MVP Award.
|
|
15
|
|
Willie Stargell
|
1973
|
|
.299 average, just missed the MVP Award.
|
|
16
|
|
Darin Erstad
|
1997
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
Steve Finley
|
1996
|
|
.298 average, 95 RBI, 195 hits.
|
|
18
|
|
Herman Long
|
1898
|
|
99 Runs Scored AND 99 RBI.
|
|
19
|
|
Raul Mondesi
|
1999
|
|
99 RBI, 98 runs scored.
|
|
20
|
|
Mike Sweeney
|
2001
|
|
99 RBI, 97 runs scored, 29 homers.
|
|
21
|
|
Rich Rollins
|
1962
|
|
96 runs scored, 96 RBI, .298 average.
|
|
22
|
|
Wally Pipp
|
1921
|
|
|
|
23
|
|
Luke Appling
|
1940
|
|
96 runs scored, 197 hits, close to the batting title.
|
|
24
|
|
Frank Robinson
|
1957
|
|
|
|
25
|
|
Yogi Berra
|
1952
|
|
97 runs scored, 98 RBI, missed by two of
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
leading league in home runs.
|
The most notable seasons for pitchers are all 19-win seasons. Mark Langston in 1991 had 19 wins, missed by one of leading the league in wins, and had a 3.00 ERA. . .one more out would have made it 2.99. Bert Blyleven in ’84 had 19 wins, missed by one of leading the league in wins, and also just missed leading the league in ERA. Bob Gibson in ’64, Greg Maddux in 2000, Fernando Valenzuela in ’82, Dutch Leonard in 1914. .. all basically the same sort of near-miss seasons.
And, on the other hand
The players who had the longest careers without earning ANY cigar points were:
1. Tim Foli
2. Ted Sizemore
3. Horace Clarke
4. Chico Carrasquel
5. Mike Heath
6. Lee Tannehill
7. Todd Hundley
8. Larry Brown
9. Dal Maxvill
10. Frank Bowerman
In general, these players didn’t earn any cigar points because they generally weren’t close to any standards of excellence as a hitter. But obviously, they could have had 19 doubles in a season or 9 homers or 9 triples or 9 stolen bases. It just happened that they never did. And, on the pitcher’s side:
1. Cy Falkenberg
2. Toad Ramsey
3. Marty Pattin
4. Dave Foutz
5. Charles Nagy
6. Randy Jones
7. Alex Kellner
8. Jersey Bakely
9. Duke Esper
10. Bobby Bolin
And Barry Zito has no cigar points heading into this season.
Bill James