A discussion of Alan Trammell’s qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

I am a Detroit Tigers fan who is very disappointed in the lack of Hall of Fame support given to Alan Trammell. This is especially considering a contemporary, Ozzie Smith, who was very close with Trammell in Win Shares, went in on the first ballot.  Omar Vizquel, who I feel was significantly inferior as a player to Trammell, projects in the Gold Mine at 80% likelihood.  Two questions: 1) Do you think his support will improve over time?  2)If he had won the MVP he deserved in 1987, would that have significantly changed the perception of him?

Brian Kennedy
 

            Let’s do an inventory of the issues involved there:

            1)  Was Alan Trammell as good (or substantially as good) as Ozzie Smith?

            2)  If so, why did Ozzie do better in Hall of Fame voting?

            3)  Was Alan Trammell, in fact, substantially better than Omar Vizquel?

            4)  If so, why I am saying that Vizquel is a likely Hall of Famer?

            5)  Did Alan Trammell actually deserve the MVP Award in 1987?

            6)  If he had won the Award, would that have made a big difference in MVP voting?

            7)  Will Trammell’s support improve over time? and

            8)  (The big one) is Trammell in fact a player of Hall of Fame stature?

            This is why I can’t listen to talk radio, by the way.   People say things, and, in seemingly simple and straightforward assertions, there are a dozen issues that could be analyzed.   The host will focus on one of those assertions to debate, making 25 more debatable statements in the process, and the next caller will focus on one of those, making sixteen more and throwing in some ridiculous crap about Prince Fielder having the greatest hot streak in National League history.   You can go from Alan Trammell to Jackie Robinson’s college football career to blood doping in greyhound races in three phone calls.  I am always trying to outline the debate in my mind and focus on the issues capable of resolution, and I just can’t keep up.  I feel like Stan Laurel with Ollie pulling up the carpet on him.  I get head over heels confused, and I get frustrated because I can’t keep up, so I just turn it off.  I write because it gives me an opportunity to organize the debate in my head. 

Anyway, I have been meaning to introduce into this site Win Shares and Loss Shares, so let’s take the opportunity to do that. Win Shares and Loss Shares, which are the successor to Win Shares, are a way of attempting to state each player’s contribution to his team as a won-lost record.  Let’s take on the issues above one by one:

 

1)  Was Alan Trammell substantially as good as Ozzie Smith? 

According to the Win Shares/Loss Shares method, he was.  We credit Ozzie with a career record of 325-231 (325 Wins, 231 Losses), a .585 percentage.   We have Trammell at 282-176, a .616 percentage.   By any kind of Value over Replacement Level analysis, those are comparable career records. 

I have Ozzie as a .486 player offensively, but .880 defensively, compared to Trammell below:

                              Batting               ​;        Fielding                          Total
              Ozzie               203-218    .486            123-17    .880              325-231   .585
              Trammell          214-142    .601              68-34    .667              282-176   .616

            

            2)  If so, why did Ozzie do better in Hall of Fame voting?

           

            I’ll offer two explanations.   One is that extreme excellence in one area is easy to explain to people.   Ozzie, beyond question, was a brilliant defensive shortstop—perhaps the best ever.   People get that.   Trammell was a less brilliant defender but a better hitter, roughly the same overall, but that’s harder to explain to people.

            The other answer is that either

            1)  many people overvalue defense, or

            2)  the Win Shares system undervalues defense. 

            Many people think playing defense is a shortstop’s job, period.   I think they’re exaggerating the value of shortstop defense, but it’s difficult to prove the issue one way or the other.

 

3)  Was Alan Trammell, in fact, substantially better than Omar Vizquel?

            According to Win Shares he was, yes.    Let’s add Vizquel to the Ozzie/Trammell comparison above:

                              Batting                       Fielding                          Total
            Ozzie               203-218    .486            123-17    .880              325-231   .585
            Trammell          214-142    .601              68-34    .667              282-176   .616
            Vizquel            180-241    .427              77-33     .704              257-273   .485

 

            Our system sees Vizquel as

            1.   A good defensive shortstop—a little better than Trammell, but

            2.   Not in Ozzie’s class as a defensive player, and

            3.  Weaker than Ozzie with the bat. 

            If we assume that Value Over Replacement Level begins at .400, we would have Ozzie at +103, Trammell at +99, Vizquel at +45.   If we assume that the replacement level is .333, we would have Ozzie at +140, Trammell at +129, Vizquel at +80.    Trammell is close to Ozzie and far better than Vizquel.

            Looking at both players in their peak seasons, Vizquel’s peak was from 1995-1999, when we credit him with a won-lost contribution of 83-70.   Trammell’s peak was from 1983-1987, when we credit him with a won-lost contribution of 112-40.  

 

            4) If so, why I am saying that Vizquel is a likely Hall of Famer?

            It’s a perception of a perception.   It is my belief that Vizquel is widely perceived as a defensive genius on a par with Ozzie, and as a player who has had a career much like Ozzie’s.   I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but it is my belief that Omar is married in Ozzie in the minds of many sportswriters, and that this is likely to work in his favor when he becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame.

 

            5)  Did Alan Trammell actually deserve the MVP Award in 1987?

            I think so.  I thought that he did at the time, and, twenty years later with better methods of analysis and more data available, this is still what I think.  This is a Win Shares comparison of Trammell and George Bell, 1987:

                              Batting                       Fielding      ​                    Total
             Bell                    20-   5     .787                 4-  3   .604                24-    8   .749
             Trammell            23-   0     .985                 4-  2   .654                27-    2   .915

 

            6)  If he had won the Award, would that have made a big difference in MVP voting?

            Perhaps it would have, but there are a bunch of shortstops with MVP Awards and  marginal Hall of Fame credentials who didn’t exactly catch fire in Hall of Fame voting.   Dick Groat, NL MVP in 1960 (and runner-up in 1963) had a long career with many accomplishments, but never got above 2% (7 votes) in Hall of Fame balloting.  Maury Wills won the MVP Award in ’62 and was constantly referred to by the late, great Jim Murray as an obvious Hall of Famer, but never got above 41% in the voting.  Roger Peckinpaugh had a good career with an MVP Award in 1924, but never got above 1%.  Phil Rizzuto had a good career with an MVP Award in 1950, but never got above 38% in the actual voting, although he was elected by the Council of Elders in 1994. 

            One can make an argument that it was the MVP Award that legitimized the push for Rizzuto in the early 1990s, and ultimately got him enshrined.   That could be.   One can certainly argue that Lou Boudreau’s MVP season in 1948 made him a Hall of Famer.  But there are any number of similar players in the Hall without MVP Awards—Luis Aparicio, Pee Wee Reese and Travis Jackson—and there are any number of other players who got the benefit of organized bandwagons like Rizzuto—Enos Slaughter, Bill Mazeroski and Richie Ashburn—although they never won the MVP.

            I think the evidence is that the MVP Award is a factor in how players are perceived post-career, but it’s a very small factor, rather than a very large one.           Probably the best test case for this will be Barry Larkin.   Larkin’s career is a good deal like Trammell’s, but, for whatever reason, he did win the Award one year.   He’ll be on the ballot in two years, and we’ll see what kind of a difference that makes.  Although I think, in all candor, that Larkin’s credentials are a little better than Trammell’s.

 

7)  Will Trammell’s support improve over time?

History would suggest that it may, but honestly, I am skeptical about the relevance of this history.   I kind of think that, with the ballot as crowded as it is likely to be over the next twenty years, there will be little room for players to gather strength in the voting as many players historically have done.  SOME players will do this, certainly, but I think that, because of the larger number of players with longer careers, more players will be crowded out and blocked off.   I honestly don’t know the answer to your question, but I wouldn’t be optimistic.

 

8)  (The $64,000 question) is Trammell in fact a player of Hall of Fame stature?

The standard I am developing. . .not entirely sure whether I am going to stick with this. . .but the standard that seems to be evolving for me is that a Hall of Fame player should meet, at a minimum, one of these two standards:   300 Win Shares, or 100 more Win Shares than Loss Shares.   Trammell misses 300 Win Shares but is +106 in Wins over Losses, thus he is, in my view, at least minimally qualified for the Hall of Fame.  On the other hand, this standard isn’t meaningful at this point to anybody except me, and even when I’m talking to myself. . ..Buddy Bell is both over 300 and +100, and yet no one seems to think of him as a Hall of Fame player.

Trammell was certainly a better player than some shortstops now in the Hall of Fame, including Rizzuto, Sewell, Tinker and Travis Jackson.   If you want to argue for him, I’m certainly not arguing against him, but on the other hand, I don’t know that we want to carry forward that “Dave Bancroft Line”, as Stan Grosshandler used to call it, where the Hall of Fame ceases to be golden and becomes a little more brass.   I’ll stay out of it.   I’ll argue for Santo, Minnie Minoso and now Bert Blyleven, but otherwise I’m going to stay out of it.

 

Career Win Shares and Loss Shares for some of the players relevant to this discussion are given below.

 

Bill James

Brookline, Mass

March 25, 2008

 

Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Bell	George	1981	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	2	5	1	1	3	6	.330
Bell	George	1983	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	2	3	1	1	3	4	.414
Bell	George	1984	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	17	8	3	4	20	13	.610
Bell	George	1985	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	17	9	6	2	22	12	.658
Bell	George	1986	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	18	8	3	4	21	12	.630
Bell	George	1987	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	20	5	4	3	24	8	.749
Bell	George	1988	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	14	13	2	5	16	19	.460
Bell	George	1989	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	17	8	3	5	20	14	.599
Bell	George	1990	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	12	13	3	4	14	16	.467
Bell	George	1991	Chicago	Cubs	NL	13	10	2	5	15	15	.506
Bell	George	1992	Chicago	White Sox	AL	11	17	0	4	11	21	.346
Bell	George	1993	Chicago	White Sox	AL	4	15	0	3	4	18	.195
						146	115	28	41	173	157	.525
							.558		.401		.525
Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Jackson	Travis	1922	New York	Giants	NL	0	1	0	0	0	1	-.141
Jackson	Travis	1923	New York	Giants	NL	6	8	5	0	11	8	.565
Jackson	Travis	1924	New York	Giants	NL	15	10	5	5	20	16	.562
Jackson	Travis	1925	New York	Giants	NL	8	10	5	3	12	12	.497
Jackson	Travis	1926	New York	Giants	NL	11	5	5	2	16	7	.709
Jackson	Travis	1927	New York	Giants	NL	13	6	7	1	20	7	.733
Jackson	Travis	1928	New York	Giants	NL	12	13	10	0	22	13	.627
Jackson	Travis	1929	New York	Giants	NL	13	10	9	0	22	11	.671
Jackson	Travis	1930	New York	Giants	NL	11	6	4	2	16	9	.644
Jackson	Travis	1931	New York	Giants	NL	14	9	8	2	22	10	.681
Jackson	Travis	1932	New York	Giants	NL	4	5	1	2	5	7	.404
Jackson	Travis	1933	New York	Giants	NL	2	4	1	1	3	5	.356
Jackson	Travis	1934	New York	Giants	NL	11	12	7	3	18	14	.562
Jackson	Travis	1935	New York	Giants	NL	12	9	4	4	16	13	.546
Jackson	Travis	1936	New York	Giants	NL	4	17	5	4	8	21	.289
						135	124	76	29	211	154	.578
							.520		.721		.578

Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Larkin	Barry	1986	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	4	3	2	0	6	3	.662
Larkin	Barry	1987	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	7	13	5	1	12	13	.474
Larkin	Barry	1988	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	17	7	6	1	23	9	.733
Larkin	Barry	1989	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	10	3	4	-1	14	2	.865
Larkin	Barry	1990	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	16	10	8	0	24	9	.723
Larkin	Barry	1991	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	15	4	7	-1	22	3	.881
Larkin	Barry	1992	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	18	4	7	0	25	4	.855
Larkin	Barry	1993	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	12	4	3	2	15	6	.722
Larkin	Barry	1994	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	12	6	4	1	16	7	.692
Larkin	Barry	1995	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	18	2	4	2	22	4	.859
Larkin	Barry	1996	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	19	3	5	1	24	5	.837
Larkin	Barry	1997	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	8	1	2	0	10	1	.923
Larkin	Barry	1998	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	18	4	3	3	21	7	.764
Larkin	Barry	1999	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	15	9	5	1	20	10	.655
Larkin	Barry	2000	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	10	6	2	1	12	8	.609
Larkin	Barry	2001	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	3	3	0	2	4	5	.430
Larkin	Barry	2002	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	7	16	4	2	11	17	.390
Larkin	Barry	2003	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	5	5	1	2	5	7	.448
Larkin	Barry	2004	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	8	7	1	2	9	9	.501
						223	110	72	18	295	127	.698
							.670		.803		.698
Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Smith	Ozzie	1978	San Diego	Padres	NL	12	16	9	1	21	17	.551
Smith	Ozzie	1979	San Diego	Padres	NL	5	22	6	2	11	25	.317
Smith	Ozzie	1980	San Diego	Padres	NL	11	17	8	1	20	18	.514
Smith	Ozzie	1981	San Diego	Padres	NL	6	15	5	1	11	16	.409
Smith	Ozzie	1982	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	10	12	10	-2	20	10	.654
Smith	Ozzie	1983	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	11	14	7	2	18	15	.536
Smith	Ozzie	1984	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	10	9	7	0	17	8	.670
Smith	Ozzie	1985	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	15	9	10	-1	24	8	.742
Smith	Ozzie	1986	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	13	9	8	0	20	9	.695
Smith	Ozzie	1987	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	17	8	8	0	25	8	.760
Smith	Ozzie	1988	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	14	10	7	1	22	11	.655
Smith	Ozzie	1989	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	14	12	7	2	21	13	.620
Smith	Ozzie	1990	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	9	14	4	4	13	17	.434
Smith	Ozzie	1991	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	17	6	5	2	23	9	.720
Smith	Ozzie	1992	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	14	8	8	-1	22	7	.744
Smith	Ozzie	1993	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	12	12	6	1	18	13	.581
Smith	Ozzie	1994	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	7	10	3	2	10	11	.467
Smith	Ozzie	1995	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	1	7	2	0	3	7	.268
Smith	Ozzie	1996	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	5	5	2	0	7	5	.577
						203	214	123	17	325	231	.585
							.486		.880		.585
Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Trammell	Alan	1977	Detroit	Tigers	AL	0	2	0	1	0	3	-.037
Trammell	Alan	1978	Detroit	Tigers	AL	9	11	7	0	16	11	.588
Trammell	Alan	1979	Detroit	Tigers	AL	10	11	4	3	13	14	.487
Trammell	Alan	1980	Detroit	Tigers	AL	14	10	4	3	18	13	.592
Trammell	Alan	1981	Detroit	Tigers	AL	9	10	6	0	14	9	.605
Trammell	Alan	1982	Detroit	Tigers	AL	11	11	5	2	16	13	.555
Trammell	Alan	1983	Detroit	Tigers	AL	18	3	4	2	22	6	.796
Trammell	Alan	1984	Detroit	Tigers	AL	19	4	5	2	24	5	.823
Trammell	Alan	1985	Detroit	Tigers	AL	11	15	6	2	17	17	.497
Trammell	Alan	1986	Detroit	Tigers	AL	17	8	5	1	22	9	.707
Trammell	Alan	1987	Detroit	Tigers	AL	23	0	4	2	27	2	.915
Trammell	Alan	1988	Detroit	Tigers	AL	16	4	4	1	20	5	.799
Trammell	Alan	1989	Detroit	Tigers	AL	9	11	4	2	12	13	.488
Trammell	Alan	1990	Detroit	Tigers	AL	17	7	4	3	21	9	.684
Trammell	Alan	1991	Detroit	Tigers	AL	7	9	4	1	11	10	.510
Trammell	Alan	1992	Detroit	Tigers	AL	2	2	1	1	3	3	.505
Trammell	Alan	1993	Detroit	Tigers	AL	13	3	2	3	15	6	.709
Trammell	Alan	1994	Detroit	Tigers	AL	5	8	1	2	5	10	.347
Trammell	Alan	1995	Detroit	Tigers	AL	4	6	1	2	4	8	.349
Trammell	Alan	1996	Detroit	Tigers	AL	1	7	0	2	1	9	.125
						214	142	68	34	282	176	.616
							.601		.667		.616
Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Vizquel	Omar	1989	Seattle	Mariners	AL	4	15	4	2	7	17	.300
Vizquel	Omar	1990	Seattle	Mariners	AL	4	8	3	1	6	9	.416
Vizquel	Omar	1991	Seattle	Mariners	AL	6	13	6	-1	12	13	.491
Vizquel	Omar	1992	Seattle	Mariners	AL	9	12	4	2	13	14	.482
Vizquel	Omar	1993	Seattle	Mariners	AL	8	17	6	0	14	18	.450
Vizquel	Omar	1994	Cleveland	Indians	AL	4	9	2	1	6	10	.392
Vizquel	Omar	1995	Cleveland	Indians	AL	11	13	5	1	16	15	.531
Vizquel	Omar	1996	Cleveland	Indians	AL	12	12	5	2	17	13	.558
Vizquel	Omar	1997	Cleveland	Indians	AL	12	14	3	3	15	17	.473
Vizquel	Omar	1998	Cleveland	Indians	AL	11	14	5	1	17	15	.528
Vizquel	Omar	1999	Cleveland	Indians	AL	16	8	2	3	18	11	.626
Vizquel	Omar	2000	Cleveland	Indians	AL	13	13	3	3	16	16	.497
Vizquel	Omar	2001	Cleveland	Indians	AL	10	18	4	2	14	21	.403
Vizquel	Omar	2002	Cleveland	Indians	AL	13	12	5	2	18	14	.553
Vizquel	Omar	2003	Cleveland	Indians	AL	4	8	3	0	6	8	.450
Vizquel	Omar	2004	Cleveland	Indians	AL	12	12	2	3	15	15	.490
Vizquel	Omar	2005	San Francisco	Giants	NL	11	14	5	2	16	16	.505
Vizquel	Omar	2006	San Francisco	Giants	NL	13	12	4	3	17	15	.534
Vizquel	Omar	2007	San Francisco	Giants	NL	6	17	6	1	12	18	.408
						180	241	77	33	257	273	.485
							.427		.704		.485

Last	First	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	B WS	B LS	F WS	F LS	T WS	T LS	W Pct
Yount	Robin	1974	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	5	10	4	2	9	12	.417
Yount	Robin	1975	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	10	14	2	5	12	20	.382
Yount	Robin	1976	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	10	19	6	3	16	22	.415
Yount	Robin	1977	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	13	12	3	5	17	17	.496
Yount	Robin	1978	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	13	9	6	2	19	11	.635
Yount	Robin	1979	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	10	16	7	2	16	18	.476
Yount	Robin	1980	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	19	7	6	3	24	10	.719
Yount	Robin	1981	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	10	6	6	-1	17	5	.777
Yount	Robin	1982	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	26	0	5	3	31	3	.917
Yount	Robin	1983	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	22	1	5	3	27	4	.863
Yount	Robin	1984	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	19	7	4	3	24	10	.701
Yount	Robin	1985	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	11	9	2	4	13	12	.522
Yount	Robin	1986	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	16	5	3	3	19	8	.695
Yount	Robin	1987	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	19	7	3	4	21	12	.643
Yount	Robin	1988	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	19	7	7	2	25	9	.736
Yount	Robin	1989	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	24	0	4	4	28	5	.853
Yount	Robin	1990	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	15	11	3	6	17	17	.496
Yount	Robin	1991	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	10	12	3	3	13	15	.453
Yount	Robin	1992	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	14	10	5	3	19	13	.603
Yount	Robin	1993	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	9	11	3	3	12	14	.452
						293	175	86	62	378	237	.615
							.626		.579		.615