I wrote an article here recently, Your Typical Player, which looked at the issue of how the batting stats for the typical player have changed, and how they have remained about the same, over the last hundred years.   I was thinking about doing the same thing for pitchers, and now a couple of readers have requested that I should, so I will.  It fits the basic requirement of something worth writing about:  The reader knows something at the end of the paragraph that he didn’t know at the beginning of the paragraph.   It doesn’t have to be something fascinating; it doesn’t have to be something significant.   It’s better if it is fascinating or significant, but as long as I know something after doing the research that I didn’t know before I did the research, that’s enough.

            So anyway, this is what your typical starting pitcher did in a season in the 1870s:

            A typical starting pitcher in the 1870s made 45 starts in a season, completed 42 of them, pitched 400-plus innings and gave up 233 runs, most of which were un-earned.   Of course, there were only 36 pitchers in the group.   To qualify as a starting pitcher in this study a pitcher had to have

            a)  25 starts, or

            b)  a total of “starts + innings pitched” of 200 or more.

            Since the National League only started in 1876, since there was only one league that could by any extrapolation be considered a major league, and since teams mostly had only one starting pitcher each, the number of pitchers in the group was very small, but it gives us a kind of surveyor’s post to depart from.   The best starting pitchers of the 1870s, ranked by Season Scores, were:

            Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Monte Ward, 1879             47-19               239      36        2.19

            2.  George Bradley, 1876         45-19               103      38        1.23

            3.  Tommy Bond, 1879            43-19               155      24        1.96

            4.  Al Spalding, 1876                47-12                 39      26        1.75

            While the worst were:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Dory Dean, 1876                  4-26                 22      24        3.73

            2.  George Zettlein, 1876            4-20                 10        6        3.88                

            3.  Blondie Purcell, 1879            4-17                 31      21        3.78

            4.  Cherokee Fisher, 1876          4-20                 29        6        3.02

            Because most runs in this era are now scored as “un-earned” runs, no qualifying starting pitcher in this era is charged with an ERA as high as 4.00.   Dory Dean allowed more than one run per inning pitched, more than nine runs a game (268 runs in 263 innings), but most of them were un-earned, as we now count those things.

            George Zettlein pitched 234 innings in 1876, striking out only 10 batters and walking only 6.   It was a different game.   The number of qualifying pitchers increased from the 1870s into the second decade of the twentieth century, decreased then until 1960, and has expanded since expansion:

            After 1880, when major league baseball was financially successful, the “official” schedule expanded very rapidly, as

            a) The number of scheduled dates expanded, and

            b) League games replaced exhibition games.

            At first the teams tried to stay with one starting pitcher, but this tended to destroy pitchers, so teams began using two starting pitchers, then, by the end of the 1880s, three.  By the end of the 1890s some teams were using four.   The number of starting pitchers in the universe of starting pitchers peaked in the teens, when there was a third league for two years (1914-1915). 

            The number of starting pitchers per team started to decline in the mid-1920s, when teams began to use relievers.   As teams began to keep relievers around there was a normal rotation back and forth to the bullpen.  

            There is something else going on here, which is that beginning about 1920 teams had organized farm systems.   When a team allows a pitcher to go 4-26, as Dory Dean did in the 1870s, what does that tell you?  

They don’t have a lot of options.  We have gotten into the habit of regarding these 1870s teams as “major league” teams, but sometimes we lose track of the fact that these teams did not have many of the attributes that we now associate with major league status.   The Cincinnati team in 1876 kept running Dory Dean and then Cherokee Fisher out to the hill because, like a bad high school team in 2008, that was all they had.  They didn’t have a farm system, and they didn’t have money, and they didn’t have scouts, and they didn’t have a front office charged with identifying and developing talent.   This was what they had. 

            Gradually teams began to develop options, and, as they began to develop options, they became willing to switch more rapidly to some other option.  That’s why the number of “qualifying” starting pitchers began to decrease in the 1920s:  because teams had other options.  They had relievers; they had minor leaguers.  When a starting pitcher struggled, he dropped first into a relief role, and then out of the majors.   He didn’t hang around to go 4-26.

            In the 1880s, however, a pitcher could lose a very large number of games before he was replaced:

            The “average” winning percentage of a starting pitcher in the 1870s was .497, but that’s a small-data-sample fluke, to which we will pay no attention.  Since 1880 the typical starting pitcher has always had a winning record, for the reason we were just talking about:  if you don’t win, you get replaced before you get to 25 starts.   This was beginning to happen in the 1880s.   The best starting pitchers of the 1880s were:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Old Hoss Radbourn, 1884   59-12               441      98        1.38

            2.  Guy Hecker, 1884               52-20               385      56        1.80

            3.  Charlie Buffinton, 1884        48-16               417      76        2.15

            4.  John Clarkson, 1885           53-16               308      97        1.85

            While the worst were:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  John Ewing, 1889                  6-30               155     147      4.87    

            2.  Jack Neagle, 1883                5-23                  63       66      5.94

3.  Mike Morrison, 1887          12-25               158     205      4.92

            4.  Billy Crowell, 1887              14-31                 72      138      4.88

            Morrison and Crowell were teammates, by the way, the team finishing a regrettable 39-92.   They would do much worse later on. 

            These were the last of the 50-game winners.   In 1888 Old Hoss Radbourn was 7-16, Guy Hecker 8-18.   The teams began to substitute sober judgment for the romantic notion of the invincible, indefatigable hero.  In the 1890s the workload of the typical pitcher shrank considerably:

            That was a big-hitting decade, the biggest-hitting decade in baseball history, although a third of the runs were still un-earned.   Strikeouts were down, walks were up.  As the winning percentage is always a little bit better than .500, the ERA of the average starting pitcher is always a little bit better than the average “league” ERA for the same pitchers:

The best and worst of the 1890s:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Bill Hutchinson, 1891           44-19               261      178      2.81

            2.  Scott Stratton, 1890            34-14               207        61      2.36

            3.  Cy Young, 1892                  36-12               168      119      1.93

            4.  Kid Gleason, 1890              38-17               227      163      2.63

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Bill Hart, 1897                       9-27                 67      148      6.26

            2.  Red Donahue, 1897            10-35                 64      106      6.13

3.  Jim Hughey, 1899                  4-30                 54        88      5.41

            4.  George Keefe, 1890              6-16                 55      138      6.52

            Actually, Bill Hutchinson has two seasons among the top three, but I decided a pitcher should only be eligible for one spot in the decade’s starting rotation.

            In the 1890s a foul ball was not a strike.  Some players got to be very good at fouling off pitches, which led to some ridiculously long at bats.   The rule stating that a foul ball counted as a strike except for strike three was adopted just after the turn of the century, causing strikeouts to go up, walks to go down, and ERAs to drop sharply:

            In the 1870s, when even catchers did not wear gloves, the average pitcher threw 22 Wild Pitches per season, granting he was pitching 400+ innings.   By 1910 this figure had dropped to 5 or 6 per pitcher per season, where it still is today:

            The best and worst of the Honus Wagner decade:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Ed Walsh, 1908                  40-15               269        56      1.42

            2.  Christy Mathewson, 1908    37-11               259        42      1.43

            3.  Jack Chesbro, 1904            41-12               239        88      1.82

            4.  Joe McGinnity, 1904           35- 8                144        86      1.61

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Kaiser Wilhelm, 1905            3-23                 76        75      4.54

            2.  Mal Eason, 1905                   5-21                 64        72      4.30

3.  George Ferguson, 1909         5-23                 87        83      3.73

            4.  Gus Dorner, 1906                 8-26               109      107      3.74

            In broad numbers the typical pitcher of the 1910s looks almost the same as the typical pitcher of the 1900s:

            But there is a change there, you see?   Pitchers had started relieving one another.   There were still no relievers in this era, really, but a typical starting pitcher worked in relief nine times a season (39 minus 30) as opposed to four times the previous decade (35 minus 31), while the average number of complete games dropped from 25 to 18.   The number of “Saves” for a typical starting pitcher reached an all-time peak in this decade:

            Starting pitchers in the teens through the 1940s, even the 1960s, worked not infrequently in relief, and sometimes earned Saves.   This rarely happens anymore.  

            Beginning in 1920 the spitball was outlawed, and efforts were made to keep clean, fresh balls in play.   This caused the average pitcher’s ERA to jump by a full run in the 1920s:

            An even more dramatic increase was in home runs allowed.   The changes in home runs allowed by pitchers, of course, mirror the changes in home runs by hitters:

            I didn’t get a chance to give you the best and worst pitchers of the teens:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Walter Johnson, 1913          36-7                 243        38      1.14

            2.  Joe Wood, 1912                 34-5                 258        82      1.91

            3.  Pete Alexander, 1915          31-10               241        64      1.22

            4.  Jack Coombs, 1910            31-9                 224      115      1.30

            The previous decade was the last decade of 40-game winners, and the teens, really, were the last decade of 30-game winners.   There were seven 30-win seasons in this decade—two by Walter, three by Pete, one each by Wood and Coombs.   There have been four 30-win seasons since—in 1920, 1931, 1934 and 1968.   These were their opposite numbers:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Jack Nabors, 1916                1-20                 74        95      3.47

            2.  Cliff Curtis, 1910                   6-24                 75      124      3.55

3.  Roy Golden, 1911                 4-9                   81      129      5.01

            4.  Bill Bailey, 1910                    3-18                 90        97      3.28

            While these pitchers played those roles in the 1920s:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Dazzy Vance, 1924             28-6                 262        77      2.16

            2.  Pete Alexander, 1920          27-14               173        69      1.91

3.  Dolf Luque, 1923                27-8                 151        88      1.93

            4.  Lefty Grove, 1928               24-8                 183        64      2.58

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Jimmy Ring, 1928                  4-17                 72      103      6.40

            2.  Roy Wilkinson, 1921             4-20                 50        78      5.14

            3.  Joe Oeschger, 1922              6-21                 51        81      5.05

            4.  George Smith, 1921              4-20                 45        52      4.76

            Strikeouts bottomed out in the 1920s.  In the 1880s a typical pitcher had struck out 153 batters per season, but this had dropped by the 1920s to about half of that.  Strikeouts began to work their way back up in the 1930s:

            Three great pitchers actually accounted for the eight best pitching seasons of the 1930s:

            But since we don’t allow duplicates, our starting rotation is this:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Lefty Grove, 1931               31-4                 175        62      2.06

            2.  Dizzy Dean, 1934                30-7                 195        75      2.65

3.  Carl Hubbell, 1933              23-12               156        47      1.66

            4.  Paul Derringer, 1939           25-7                 128        35      2.93

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Vern Kennedy, 1939             9-20                 64      124      5.79

            2.  Pat Caraway, 1931             10-24                 55      101      6.22

            3.  Milt Gaston, 1934                 6-19                 48        84      5.85

            4.  Ben Cantwell, 1935               4-25                 34        44      4.61

            As the 1940s were a pitcher’s decade for the hitters, so they must have been for the pitchers:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Hal Newhouser, 1946         26-9                 275        98      1.94

            2.  Bob Feller, 1946                 26-15               348      153      2.18

3.  Dizzy Trout, 1944                27-14               144        83      2.12

            4.  Mort Cooper, 1942             22-7                 152        68      1.77

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Sid Hudson, 1948                 4-16                 53      107      5.88

            2.  Early Wynn, 1948                 8-19                 49        94      5.82

            3.  Bill Wight, 1948                    9-20                 68      153      4.80

            4.  Ken Chase, 1941                  6-18                 98      115      5.07

Early Wynn being the only Hall of Famer to turn up on the “worst of the decade” lists.  Actually I have a count of the number of Hall of Famers in starting rotations, by decade:

            In this accounting a pitcher counts for each “season” he is in the rotation, so that the three starting pitchers from the 1990s who are already in the Hall of Fame are Nolan Ryan, 1990, Nolan Ryan, 1991, and Nolan Ryan, 1992.   Eleven to fourteen percent of starting pitchers have been Hall of Famers more or less throughout baseball history, except that this number surged in the 1900-1909 era and in the 1920s, due to defects in the selection system, and dropped in the 1940s.  

            In the 1950s the average starting pitcher’s strikeout total went back over 100:

            The pervasive trends of history all continued:  fewer relief appearances by starting pitchers, fewer complete games, more strikeouts, essentially the same level of effectiveness, edging very slowly upward relative to .500.   The best and worst:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Robin Roberts, 1952           28-7                 148        45      2.59

            2.  Don Newcombe, 1956        27-7                 139        46      3.06

3.  Bobby Shantz, 1952            24-7                 152        63      2.48

            4.  Warren Spahn, 1953           23-7                 148        70      2.10

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Don Larsen, 1954                 3-21                 80        89      4.37

            2.  Alex Kellner, 1950                8-20                 85      112      5.48

            3.  Johnny Lindell, 1953              6-17               118      139      4.66

            4.  Herm Wehmeier, 1950        10-18               121      135      5.67

            I was three years old when Hank Sauer won the MVP Award over Robin Roberts in 1952, but I’m still complaining about it. 

            The 1960s, of course, were the decade of the power pitcher:

            The number of pitchers per team had decreased from 1920 to 1960, but began to go up after 1960.  This is probably not best seen as a “trend” but as a result of three separate factors:

            1)  The expansion of the schedule from 154 games to 162 games (1961-1962) pushed a few pitchers over the qualifying line.

            2)  The switch from four-man to five-man rotations added pitchers.

            3)  The practice gradually ended of swapping pitchers between the starting rotation and bullpen.  

In the 1950s teams would take a reliever who was pitching well and fling him headfirst into the starting rotation, moving one of the starters to the bullpen.   We don’t do that anymore.   We’re more committed to the roles, which means more pitchers who are true starters, more who are true relievers:

            Innings pitched edged upward for the first time in history—and then edged upward a little more in the 1970s:

            After which they continued to push downward.  

            More players now reach the standards that represent excellence than did at any other time in baseball history.  I had a disagreement with a reader here a few months ago about the role of expansion vs. the longer schedule in causing this to happen.  I don’t want to re-start the argument, but you see my point?   The reader was arguing that more players reach these standards now because they play more games.   In fact, the modern players don’t play more games or pitch more innings or have more at bats, not really.   There are simply a lot more of them playing the same number of games, and there are a lot more of them because there are more teams.  

            Four-man starting rotations lasted into the mid- to late 1970s, and pitch counts as an instrument of fan torture didn’t really begin until the mid-1980s.   Koufax and Gibson were balanced by Dan (Mr.) Pfister and Don (Too Tall) Schwall:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Sandy Koufax, 1965           26-8                 382        71      2.04

            2.  Denny McLain, 1968           31-6                 280        63      1.96

3.  Juan Marichal, 1966            25-6                 222        36      2.23

            4.  Bob Gibson, 1968               22-9                 268        62      1.12

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Don Schwall, 1962                9-15                 89      121      4.95

            2.  Dan Pfister, 1962                  4-14               123      106      4.55

            3.  Don Nottebart, 1965             4-15                 77        55      4.67

            4.  Jim Bouton, 1965                  4-15                 97        60      4.83

            Pfister was a rookie in ’62, while Schwall had been Rookie of the Year in 1961.  

In the 1870s, when the league started and everybody was arguably a rookie, I guess, two “rookie” veteran pitchers (George Bradley and Al Spalding) were among the best pitchers in the decade.   Since 1876, not a single rookie pitcher has pitched well enough to show up on the best-of-the decade list, although many have found a spot on the bottom-of-the-ladder list.  In general, the number of rookie pitchers in the starting rotation for their team has decreased over the course of baseball history:

            We can look ahead to the time when there will be no complete games in the major leagues, but can we also look ahead to the time when there will be no rookie starting pitchers?  

            Not really.   The number of rookies in the starting rotation is decreasing by only about 10% per decade, or 1% per year.   The virtual disappearance of the rookie pitcher, at that pace, would take another hundred-plus years to accomplish.   I don’t think we can project that any trend will stay in motion for that length of time.   The best and worst of the 1970s:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Steve Carlton, 1972            27-10               310        87      1.97

            2.  Ron Guidry, 1978                25-3                 248        72      1.74

3.  Vida Blue, 1971                  24-8                 301        88      1.82

            4.  Fergie Jenkins, 1971            24-13               263        37      2.77

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Matt Keough, 1979               2-17                 95        78      5.04

            2.  Phil Huffman, 1979                6-18                 56        68      5.77

3.  Claude Osteen, 1975             7-16                 63        92      4.37

            4.  Bill Butler, 1960                    4-12                 75        87      3.77

            In the 1960s the average starting pitcher was very young—27.1 years of age.    The youngest average of the Lively Ball Era.  

            This probably resulted primarily from a kind of fluke event of history.   In 1960 the Baltimore Orioles, managed by Paul Richards, put together a starting rotation of Milt Pappas (aged 21), Steve Barber (21), Chuck Estrada (22), Jack Fisher (21) and Jerry Walker (21).   Incredibly, they led the league in ERA.   This broke down the normal resistance to putting untested, unproven pitchers in the majors at a very young age, and pitching very young pitchers became fairly common for years after that.   This event has gradually washed out of the memory of the game, and we’re back now to the norms that were common before that happened. 

            In the 1920s the average major league starting pitcher pitched 238.2 innings; in the 1970s, 229 innings.   Innings pitched by starting pitchers were declining in that era, but not really; for a half-century there was very little change there.   Then came the five-man rotation, and pitch counts:

            In the last three decades innings pitched by starting pitchers have nose-dived, and complete games have almost vanished.    The strikeout/walk ratio has improved for pitchers—as it has generally throughout history—and yet ERAs have gone up, due to increases in power.  

            From the 1880s through the 1970s, rotation starting pitchers always struck out more hitters per inning than the other pitchers on the staff.   Since 1980 this has not been true, as strikeouts have moved to the bullpen:

            I’ll discuss this phenomenon a little more when I do Your Typical Reliever.  The best and worst starting pitchers of the last three decades:

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Dwight Gooden, 1985         24-4                 268        69      1.53

            2.  Steve Carlton, 1980            24-9                 286        90      2.34

3.  Roger Clemens, 1986          24-4                 238        67      2.48

            4.  Bret Saberhagen, 1989        23-6                 193        43      2.16

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Jim Beattie, 1980                   5-15                 67        98      4.85

            2.  Rick Honeycutt, 1982            5-17                 64        54      5.27

3.  Jose DeLeon, 1985               2-19               149        89      4.70

            4.  Matt Keough, 1982             11-18                 75      101      5.72

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Pedro Martinez, 1999          23-4                 313        37      2.07

            2.  Roger Clemens, 1997          21-7                 292        68      2.05

3.  John Smoltz, 1996               24-8                 276        55      2.94

            4.  Randy Johnson, 1999          17-9                 364        70      2.48

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Mike Moore, 1995                5-15                 64        68      7.53

            2.  Jeff Fassero, 1999                 5-14               114        83      7.20

3.  Jason Bere, 1995                  8-15               110      106      7.19

            4.  Rich Robertson, 1996            7-17               114      116      5.12

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Randy Johnson, 2002          24-5                 334        71      2.32

            2.  Curt Schilling, 2002             23-7                 316        33      3.23

3.  Pedro Martinez, 2000          18-6                 284        32      1.74

            4.  Johan Santana, 2004           20-6                 265        54      2.61

Pitcher, Year                          W-L                  SO     BB       ERA   

            1.  Omar Daal, 2000                  4-19                 96        72      6.14

            2.  Jose Lima, 2005                    5-16                 80        61      6.99

3.  Mike Hampton, 2002            7-15                 74        91      6.15

            4.  David Cone, 2000                 4-14               120        82      6.91

            Actually the four best pitchers of the current decade, by the Season Scores method, were 1. Randy Johnson, 2002, 2. Randy Johnson, 2001, 3. Curt Schilling, 2002, and 4. Curt Schilling, 2001.   What an amazing thing that was, to have two pitchers on one team pitching at that level.  

            For many years now, I have ridiculed people who suggested that _____________ would be the last pitcher ever to win 300 games.   We will still have 300 games winners, I have argued, as long as the top pitchers in the league win 17 to 19 games a season.   When we start seeing pitchers leading the league in wins with 16, then it becomes an open issue whether a young pitcher today could win 300 games. 

            I have always ridiculed people who wrote that and I have always been proven right, but the math is starting to turn on us now.   Let’s say that a pitcher, to win 300 games, has to win 17.5 games a season for 17.5 seasons, more or less.

            In the 1970s the average number of wins for a starting pitcher was 13.7 and the standard deviation was 4.4, so 17.5 wins was less than one standard deviation above the norm.  It is difficult to sustain performance at that level, but it can be done.

            In the 1980s the norms changed to 12.7 and 3.9, so the performance level needed—17.5 wins per season—was more than one standard deviation above the norm.

            In the 1990s the norms were 12.2 and 3.8.

            In our current decade the norms have been 12.2 and 3.7.   17.5 wins per season is now 1.4 standard deviations above the norm.   That’s very, very different than .8 standard deviations above the norm.   35% of pitchers will be .8 standard deviations above the norm.  Less than half that number will be 1.5 standard deviations up. 

            We are starting now to see pitchers leading the league with 16 wins.   There were no twenty-game winners in 2006; there was one in 2007.   The math is turning on us; the foundation of a 300-win career is turning to sand.   We’re not done yet, but if we get to 2020 and the norm for wins by a starting pitcher is 11.8 and the standard deviation is 3.6. .. it’s over.    If that point is reached, it will be the end of the 300-game winners, unless history starts to reverse itself in a very significant way.

In the 1940s 200 strikeouts by a pitcher was 2.9 standard deviations above the norm for a starting pitcher.   Since then:

            1940s               2.9

            1950s               2.4

            1960s               1.1

            1970s               1.4

            1980s               1.7

            1990s               1.5

            2000s               1.5

            I looked at that because I realized, after posting the article on the Typical Hitter, that I should have analyzed the data to estimate the chance of a .400 hitter in each decade.   This data really belongs in that article, but. ..you’ve all read that article if you’re going to, so I’ll put it here.

            In the era 1910-1919, a .400 batting average was 3.9 standard deviations above the norm, meaning that something like one player in a thousand might be expected to hit .400.   Since then this data has been:

                                    Norm               StDev        Distance

            1910s               .2741               .0321               3.9

            1920s               .3039               .0340               2.8

            1930s               .2973               .0317               3.2

            1940s               .2782               .0294               4.1

            1950s               .2787               .0286               4.2

            1960s               .2691               .0275               4.8

            1970s               .2723               .0279               4.6

            1980s               .2721               .0273               4.7

            1990s               .2802               .0282               4.2

            2000s               .2803               .0269               4.5

            The gradually constricting standard deviation of batting average is, in essence, pushing the .400 batting average gradually further out of reach.   The early 1940s, before World War II, were really an extension of the 1930s, when a .400 batting average was less than four standard deviations above the norm, and if the target is less than four standard deviations above the norm, you’re going to get somebody hitting the target once in awhile. ..one player in a thousand.  

            When the target gets to be more than four standard deviations above the norm, it becomes very unlikely that anybody would hit the target.   The odds against each player become so many thousands to one that, even though there are a couple of thousand  player/seasons in a decade, the odds are still against it.    It is not impossible for a player to hit .400 in modern baseball.  But if we reach a point where a .400 batting average is 5.5 or 6 standard deviations above the norm, then one could say that it is virtually impossible for a player to hit .400—until something changes to make it possible.