Bad news for the Yankees on Monday: Jorge Posada has been put back on the disabled list for a sore right shoulder, the same injury that forced him to miss time earlier this year and has limited his innings behind the plate. The growing consensus is that Posada's shoulder needs surgery but the question remains when would be the best time for Posada to endure the six-month recovery and rehabilitation.
A few issues are clear: Posada can't throw, his power has been drained, and he isn't getting better. His numbers have been terrible since his first stint on the disabled list, theoretically making the surgery question easy to answer. The Yankees aren't going to get anything out of Posada this season, which means delaying his surgery puts the start of 2009 in jeopardy. As Posada himself said, he does not want to miss two seasons.
There's one slight problem. Putting Posada under the knife at this stage of the season is viewed as an admission that the season is over. Looking at Posada’s performance to date, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The Yankees have a sub .400 on-base percentage against left-handers, making Posada's switch-hitting bat that much more valuable, even below his career averages. His backup, Jose Molina, sports a .255 on-base percentage, although his catcher's earned run average is a full run lower than Posada's and he's thrown out about fifty percent of attempted base-stealers. Molina has also never played more than 78 games in a season and is currently at 61 for 2008. At thirty-three years of age, that could mean that Chad "Crash Davis" Moeller, the Yankees backup, could see significant time if Molina breaks down.
The simple fact is, whether Posada goes under the knife or not, his contribution this season is marginal at best. He won’t get significant time behind the plate, placing him at designated hitter or first base. By his own admission, his power is greatly diminished by the injury, while his average and on-base percentage have slipped below his norm. Giving up Jorge Posada right now isn’t robbing the team of a great offensive or defensive force.
The greater question lies in how the Yankees will respond with the trade deadline looming. It's doubtful they would give up anything of worth to get another catcher, especially after essentially wasting a spot on the 25 man roster with Chad Moeller for insurance the last few months. There is a glut of players at first base, with Giambi, Betemit, and now Sexson all waiting to get their reps. Sexson is a gamble that probably won't last too long, especially if Betemit starts hitting, although Betemit is terrible from the right side.
The Yankees would have to give up a decent prospect package to get a bat with any impact. With the infield crowded, the best they could hope for would be an outfielder that might drift between right and left fields, giving Damon the occasional day at DH. The gorilla in the room is Melky Cabrera, whose strikeouts have been rising while his on-base percentage has been shrinking. Melky turns just 24 years of age in August, but he is starting to prove that he has the skills of a fourth outfielder at best. Rookie Brett Gardner saw major playing time while Damon was on the disabled list, but he's a year older than Melky, doesn't stand to get much time with Damon back in the lineup, and doesn't hit for power.
With limited options in the offensive side, it might make sense for the Yankees to pursue pitching, but is seems those sweepstakes have already ended. There could be a fourth or fifth starter available, but what would be the sense in wasting prospects, when Ponson and Rasner have basically been filling that role?
The Yankees are seventh in the American League in runs allowed, one behind the Red Sox, and seventh in runs scored. They are dead on their expected record of 54 - 45. They've gotten to this point with Jeter, Abreu, Cano, and Posada having off years. A better second half from the healthy three could get the Yankees closer to a playoff spot. The challenge will be even higher this season, as they're looking up at the Red Sox AND the Rays, for once.
It's funny that there is even a debate about the Yankees approach to the trading deadline. Typically, if the Yankees are within striking distance and have glaring needs, they empty the farm for an impact player. This year doesn't feel much different as they've been fighting injuries all season, with Matsui trying to push off surgery himself, Damon missing significant time, ARod missing three weeks in the spring, and Chien-Ming Wang out of action until September. Last years second half record of 51 - 25 after an inconsistent first half must still be fresh in the players’ minds. They sit only five games back in the East and yet I can't see them making any major moves.
This team had a chance at Johan Santana in the off-season and it passed. It would have meant moving young prospects with high ceilings, but it would have made a major impact on this rotation right now. If this team was willing to let that deal pass, I can't see them moving major prospects for a player now.
Subtly, I believe the attitude of Yankee general manager Brian Cashman for the 2008 season was that of rebuilding. They had three pitchers who entered the season with innings limits. They have aging starters in Pettitte and Mussina who may return but don't fit Cashman's longterm plans.. They didn't make any significant improvements to a team that, by Brian Cashman's own admission, is filled with old "farts." The focus has been on developing youth, mostly in pitching, and not giving up talent through trades. From their minor league depth they've been able to cobble together a bullpen that has been incredibly effective of late, with even Kyle Farnsworth providing some consistency. The large collection of pitching at the lower levels has allowed Cashman to address pitching needs internally.
This approach might payoff in the next two seasons as their minor league pitchers develop. Or, it could all come crashing down and the Yankees will have to hear about Santana pitching at that new ballpark in Flushing. Either way, they've made too much of a commitment to youth to just throw it away on a two month rental.
Will the Yankees make the playoffs? I doubt it. I can't see the pitching holding up which means this lineup needs to discover consistency it hasn't had all year. Cano and Jeter are starting to hit, a necessity to make up for Posada and Matsui's absence and Cabrera's lack of ability.