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Batting Average and the Light Bulb

July 24, 2008

Murray Chass has left the New York Times.  This is neither timely nor earth shattering news in the grand scheme of things, but it does mark the end of a long and colorful writing career.  At least, in print.

Mr. Chass has ditched paper for kilobites, starting his own website where he and possibly other retired writers will post articles dealing with the more human element of the game. 

Don't call it a comeback.  Don't call it a blog, either.  Blog is a term and phenomenon that Mr. Chass has openly criticized and shown disdain towards.  I can understand his perspective, him being a newspaperman with forty plus years under his belt.  Anyone with an email address can start a blog, but it takes a wonderful talent for writing to sustain a career for such a long period of time.

That doesn't make these bloggers opinions any less relevant than Mr. Chass' or yours or mine.  What I write here on this site isn't a blog, but it is opened up to comments and conversation.  I wouldn't have it any other way.  My opinion is no more important than yours and if my writing stinks, I expect to hear about it.

There is another area Mr. Chass and I disagree and that is statistics.  Chass' articles have always told the story of the people who play the game, which is a great perspective behind what we see on TV.  Humanizing players is what highlights the differences between Mickey Mantle and Ty Cobb; both were great ballplayers with human flaws, but ultimately it's their personalities that make one more endearing than the other.

This is an important aspect of the game and one that shouldn't be ignored.  However, Mr. Chass dismisses the developments in statistics over the last thirty years as an attempt to strip the human element from the game and turn the players into the simple numbers on their backs.

I won't use this space as a forum to criticize Mr. Chass' point of view.  It's been done many times over by much funnier people and I don't believe it's necessary or appropriate.  He is not alone in his opinions, and, like everyone else (bloggers included), he is entitled to them.

Whenever I read this type of criticism of sabermetrics and newer baseball statistics, I am always baffled by the resentment shown by those who disregard the importance of such developments.  Most of the time, it seems like a disinterest in taking the time to understand what new statistics have been developed, and rather than express curiosity, they express disdain.

I've run into this dozens of times in my travels across the world wide internet and the argument always comes down to one essential question: why do I need all of these statistics when the game is played by unpredictable human beings?

That question touches directly on the misconceptions surrounding statistics. I'm no sabermetric maven, certainly not compared to the host of this site.  I've dabbled and played with some things and I certainly use numbers besides batting average to determine a hitters worth.  The reason I sought out those numbers was because of my enjoyment of the game.  I wasn't looking for a statistical project to pass the time, an excuse to take a non-descript dataset and distill it down to two or three values.  Instead, I wanted to understand another perspective on my favorite sport, an ability to appreciate it on a level I couldn't before.

Studying players, understanding trends, and using precedent to try and predict the future doesn't dehumanize the sport.  It helps us recognize the variations from the norm.  It highlights when a player is unique and draws attention to them in a way that basic wins and loses aren't able to do.  We know generally at what age a hitter peaks, when a typical drop-off may occur, how numbers can translate from the minors to majors.  When a player deviates from those general trends, it is cause for attention, not scorn.

A good example is a pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang.  Wang pitched very well his first couple of seasons with the Yankees despite a low average of strikeouts per nine innings.  It is generally accepted that a low strikeout ratio means less command, more balls in play, and therefore a higher earned run average.

Wang was the anomaly.  He's a sinkerball pitcher who gets a decent amount of ground balls.  Even with the Yankee defense behind him, he was having success by putting the ball in play.

That's the type of insight we wouldn't have had on a pitcher like Wang way back when.  He would have been just another pitcher with a bunch of wins to his credit.  Having this extra insight makes us appreciate what Wang is doing because he is unique, the very definition of the human element.

Another argument has been made that these newer statistics aren’t practical.  What is a Win Share?  What does VORP mean and how do I calculate a replacement player?  The sport has survived for years on the basis that hitters are judged by batting average, home runs, and runs batted in.  What does batting average mean?  In theory, it’s the percentage of hits a batter will get over a given number of at-bats.  But that’s misleading because at-bats doesn’t include walks or sacrifices.  So, if Joe Baseball has a .300 batting average, he may get three hits for every ten at-bats, but he won’t get three hits per ten plate appearances.

Batting average was created in the late 1800’s at a time when walks and sacrifices were treated differently.  Over a hundred years later, it’s still a prominent statistic, used every day in newspapers and telecasts across the country.  I think about this and wonder how many inventions from the 1800’s are still used in their native form now.  The light bulb came about through various inventions through the 1800’s but has undergone some reworking.  The telephone went through a similar path, as did the steam engine.  All of these inventions have been augmented and improved upon.

Why not baseball statistics?  Is it reasonable to assume that al of the knowledge needed to analyze a baseball player was developed over a hundred years ago?  I wouldn’t use medicinal practices from the 1800’s.  Why should batting average and earned run average be my main source of information?

 
 

COMMENTS (11 Comments, most recent shown first)

bearsketball
Some sportscasters have begun using OBP more often. This is a step in the right direction; hopefully more will follow suit.
11:29 AM Aug 18th
 
nettles9
Oh, ok, good. Whew! I was worried for a moment. There will always be questions and then answers, then more questions and answers.... sounds good to me.
7:17 AM Jul 26th
 
Richie
Short, simple, accurate answer: No.
9:17 PM Jul 25th
 
nettles9
What would happen, or will happen, if or when the day arrives that the answers are found for all the baseball questions that exist? Will this day ever come? For example, will there be a day when it is figured out the exact type of lineup and players a team should have in order to win? And if there is a day when everything is figured out, what then? Studies are continuously being done on so many different aspect of baseball-- is it possible for the day to come when all the questions are answered? Could there be a day that, with all the knowledge accumulated, that every team will play the same way, using the same knowledge? Or will it work out that, as long as human beings are playing this game, baseball will never become repetitive, or all will never be known because of the human element?

There's probably a short, simple answer to this but I decided to write it, anyway. What the heck.


8:49 PM Jul 25th
 
ScottHam
Agreed. I think it is very generational and I wouldn't blame him for feeling some resentment towards a medium that has essentially destroyed print.
5:17 PM Jul 25th
 
Richie
Bear in mind that the internet, while probably not professionally affecting Murray in any career-altering way, has likely driven however many of his younger newspaper buddies to the unemployment line. I imagine he hates it (never mind now being on it; what you can't beat, join), hates its bloggers, hates all that math stuff you find on it. Probably also a generational thing in there somewhere.
4:12 PM Jul 25th
 
ScottHam
I agree with you regarding what his perspective should be, given the point of view he was writing from. Chass seems to have taken bloggers and statistically-minded folk to heart, though.

In the "About" section on his website where he basically writes his mission statement:

"Otherwise, this site will most likely appeal primarily to older fans whose interest in good old baseball is largely ignored in this day of young bloggers who know it all, and new- fangled statistics (VORP, for one excuse-me example), which are drowning the game in numbers and making people forget that human beings, not numbers, play the games."

Now again, I don't deny Mr. Chass his right to his opinion. This type of "new" thinking isn't for everyone. But placing a statement like that in your websites mission statement is a bit curious for someone who shouldn't have to care about such things. To be flippantly critical about a subject is one thing; to make your disdain for it a focal point of your website is a bit more extreme.

I didn't use Chass in the article as an attempt to rail against him. I have no issues with his opinion. It was more of a launching pad for the old way of approaching baseball versus the new. The argument that sabermetrics is focused on dehumanizing the game is completely misguided. Chass is just a high profile writer who's been vocal enough in that belief that he made a good example for what I wanted to say.
12:08 PM Jul 25th
 
Richie
Part of churning out enough words for "a long and colorful writing career" is commenting upon anything about which you can conjure up some expressible, hopefully-entertaining thoughts. As a journalist - and basically a celebrity columnist, to boot - I imagine Murray spent his entire career never having to count past the number 10. Of course he disliked anything quantitative.
11:22 AM Jul 25th
 
ScottHam
They bothered him enough to be openly critical about them on many occasions. I didn't say that he should care. I said that I disagreed with his view on it.
7:54 AM Jul 25th
 
ScottHam
They bothered him enough to be openly critical about them on many occasions. I didn't say that he should care. I said that I disagreed with his view on it.
7:25 AM Jul 25th
 
Richie
Statistics had nothing to do with what Murray did for a living, basically writing about celebrities. Why should he care about statistics?
11:45 PM Jul 24th
 
 
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