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The Shaq Problem

July 28, 2008

            Shaquille O’Neal is roundly considered one of the greatest professional basketball players to ever lace up canvas, or whatever his Li Ning Dunkmans are made out of. He was placed on the NBA’s 50th Anniversary team in only his 4th season, and most basketball experts not named Kobe have placed him squarely in the top 10 in the endless lists they make, update and argue over. Still, one wonders where the consensus would be if he could shoot a 15 foot shot, unguarded, facing the basket straight-on. In his career, Shaq has managed to hit 5,441 free throws; he has clanged, glanced or entirely missed 4,935 other attempts. At 52.4%, Shaw is actually 10 percentage points clear of the worst free-throw shooter of all time (Ben Wallace, currently playing one of the guys who stands around watching LeBron drive to the basket with 5 seconds left on the shot clock). He’s also 20% in the other direction from being even a slightly below-average shooter. Like Wilt Chamberlain before him, Shaq’s sheer volume of bad misses, and concomitant wasted opportunities for his high-scoring teams, decreases not only his team’s chances of winning, but his chances to be viewed as the greatest player to ever live.

            For a brief period during the 2000-2001 season, the Lakers employed a free-throw specialist to teach Shaq. Whether through small sample size or actual improvement, Shaq shot 68% from the line during the final 15 games: still terrible, but a clear improvement rewarding him and the team with 1-2 extra points a game. In the ever rigged close NBA, 1-2 points matter deeply. Apparently, the Big Aristotle reasoned that he was cured, and he ceased working with the specialist. Needless to say, he has reverted to form, and has even gotten progressively worse over the years. The Spurs put the Suns out of the playoffs this year, using the “Hack-a-Shaq” method to perfection in Game 5 of the series. The Suns were limited in the number of three-pointers they could take, as the Spurs fouled O’Neal whenever he touched the ball. He sank only 9 of the 20 attempts he was given, and the Spurs won by 5.

            This is all a longish introduction to suggest that Shaquille presents to us a lesson, presuming that he is but one of the more obvious of his type. How many very good players, or even great players, would rise to that next level with even a league average proficiency in their weakest area? What would Dwyane Wade or LeBron look like with even average long-range shooting? What if Tiger Woods hit an average number of fairways off the tee? What if O.J. had found the real killers? Some of these are fixable, some are not.

            The same pattern emerges in baseball, with specific individuals at the top of the game just one average skill in an otherwise-stocked toolbox away from possible immortality. Before the inevitable listing, keep in mind that some of these are perception-based, in both directions. Thus, David Ortiz being able to field makes the list, while Derek Jeter being able to field does not. Most people believe the former matters in how Papi is rated (it probably should not), and most disagree with the basic premise of the latter (mostly while watching another slow hit ball go through the middle of the Yankee infield). The point of the exercise is to see whose reputation would improve with just one tiny upgrade in skill.

 

Ortiz, Fielding

            It might have cost him an MVP award in 2006 (though both Morneau’s and Jeter’s teams won their divisions with the Red Sox finishing 3rd in the East behind the Jays), but mostly this rears its head when he is discussed as one of the best players in the game. Despite the Red Sox fielding two top-of-the-line defensive players at the corners, traditionalists still blame Ortiz for being born into the DH era. His statistics speak for themselves (from 2003-2007, his adjusted OPS ranks 10th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, and 3rd respectively), but his late start combined with the general perception of one-sidedness will likely keep him from any serious Hall of Fame consideration.

 

Hanley Ramirez, Fielding

            This might be a little early on a couple of levels. Everything suggests that he is already one of the top players in the game, and everything suggests that he is not much of a shortstop. Still, it’s possible that he will not continue his insane production, and it’s theoretically possible he will improve dramatically on defense. Neither seems particularly likely. Split the difference and you get an awesomely productive CF. Fix the defense, you probably get A-Rod Redux. If the offense fails, well, I guess at least attendance in Miami cannot fall much farther…

 

Rich Harden, Health:

            He K’s ‘em just like Gooden; (yes, he does)

            And he slays ‘em just like Gooden; (yes, he does)

            And he’s great just like Gooden;

            But he breaks just like a little girl. 

 

Barry Bonds, Assishness:

            Barry Bonds is one of the top three players of all time. Right now, most people wouldn’t slow down if he was in the crosswalk in front of their car (dangerous given the sheer mass of his head…it’d be like hitting a deer). There are a lot of moving parts we may never understand here (*cough* steroids *cough* race *cough*), but being an extremely talented boor only works so long as people cannot create myths about your true level of talent. In some ways, it’s a shame. In other, more accurate ways, it’s life. And so it goes.

 

Adrian Gonzalez, Neutral Home Park:

            He could probably also use a razor, judging from his profile pictures on the major sites. Still, he’s an All-Star lost in Petco’s caverns. I bet he wakes up every day and yearns to be hitting in Arlington between Hamilton and Bradley. Of course, I’m pretty sure that the Rangers would also like to redo the whole Adam Eaton for Gonzalez and Chris Young fiasco, but that’s another story.

 

There are probably at least a dozen more Shaqites, and I welcome you to discuss them below. However, I wonder if these glaring errors aren’t just another thing to appreciate in the game. Do I need to see another A-Rod? Wouldn’t I rather see how the Marlins or the Red Sox strategize around the (perceived) weaknesses? Isn’t Bonds story more interesting when he’s a gruff bastard? Do Harden’s DL stints make the 5-10 starts in between that much better?  Perfection is somewhat overrated in this regard, and I sort of hope that no one fixes a thing about these guys.

 
 

COMMENTS (9 Comments, most recent shown first)

demedici
cunegonde - I actually chose Harden over Wood for a couple of reasons. First, I think Harden is probably a far better pitcher than Wood is. Both are extremely exciting to watch, and Wood still owns the highest Game Score in history, but Harden is a better pitcher game-to-game and was more impressive in a better league. I have no doubts that, if healthy for any sustained period, Harden would be a top 3 pitcher. I think we have seen the best of Wood (even if healthy), and while he can strike people out better than almost anyone else in history, he isn't a great pitcher. He's Nolan Ryan to Harden's Pedro. Second, I think Harden's constant cycle of "injury, DL stint, pitch 5 games, injury, repeat" is more crushing to both how he's viewed and what he's able to accomplish. Part of the reason you might have an argument that Wood should be the player featured is that he has actually been able to complete seasons (nearly three in a row at some point). Harden has exactly one year of even 150 innings, and that was when he was 22.
9:11 AM Jul 30th
 
jollydodger
Imagine Mike Piazza with average defense....how God-like he'd be obsessed over.
9:57 PM Jul 29th
 
MattGoodrich
Why doesn't Shaq try shooting underhanded? Somebody should make him do it. I've had two occasions (a kid's home game and at a carnival) where I said "screw appearances" and I shot underhanded around a bunch of macho teenage guys and I crushed them all.
8:27 PM Jul 29th
 
cunegonde
Interesting that Rich Harden was picked as the poster child for injuries to an otherwise great pitcher. I'd think that over the course of their careers Harden's new teammate, Kerry Wood, is more deserving of that "honor." Ironically, Wood went down just when Harden got to the Cubs; his absence is why Harden didn't win his first start. I agree that Harden bears more resemblance on the mound to Doc than Wood does. Or, for that matter, than anyone else I've seen.
10:15 AM Jul 29th
 
Richie
In Shaq's defense, shooting free throws in the middle of an NBA game is like us shooting free throws during a session of lifting weights. 2 Sets of benches, then 2 free throws, a sprint around the jogging track followed by 2 more, some curls along with sit ups on the big ball then another free throw, and so on. And you don't know exactly when you'll be trying them. Nor how many. Much harder than when you and I practice draining them in the local gym.

Doesn't account for why Shaq is so much worse than other NBA players. But it's mich harder than it looks.
10:27 PM Jul 28th
 
Trailbzr
But Ortiz would have to raise his defense to average for a MLB player.

When talking about Shaq's FT, he isn't even average compared to a fit mid-30s guy off the street, who practiced an hour a day for a week.
9:25 PM Jul 28th
 
demedici
OOOO....Nolan Ryan's control. That is a perfect example of why I think it might be better that certain things don't get fixed. First, it allows us to argue about how good Ryan really was, instead of ensuring that he is remembered as one of the greatest players ever. Second, and more importantly, it made him a disaster to bat against, fun to watch as a fan, and led to at least one occasion of an MLB-sponsored noogie fest.
5:59 PM Jul 28th
 
evanecurb
Ken Singleton's speed
Nolan Ryan's control
Albert Belle's Albert Bellishness


5:04 PM Jul 28th
 
Richie
Gotta like that Bonds joke! I intend to steal it first chance I get. :-)
3:34 PM Jul 28th
 
 
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