Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas were both born on May 27, 1968. They both won MVP awards in 1994. And based on Similarity Scores, Bagwell’s most-similar player is Thomas, and Thomas’ most-similar player is Bagwell. You can make the argument that Bagwell is better than Thomas or Thomas is better than Bagwell, but you can’t escape the fact that they’re very close.

Yet the other day, on this website, Sean Kates asserted without equivocation, “Thomas is a much better player than Bagwell.”

Uh, really? Much better? Let’s see…

Bagwell’s career line is .297/.408/.540. Thomas’ is .302/.420/.557.

Bagwell had 1,788 runs created. Thomas has an even 2,000. That’s 8.1 runs created per game for Bagwell, 8.8 for Thomas.

Bagwell’s offensive winning percentage is .721; Thomas’ is .734. Put in terms of a 162-game season, that’s a 117-45 record for Bagwell and a 119-43 record for Thomas.

Any way you slice it, Thomas was better, as a hitter. He hit for a higher average, drew more walks, and had more power. But he’s not that much better. Oddly, it’s Bagwell who had the higher highs – Bagwell’s career highs in batting average, doubles, triples, homers, walks, runs scored, and slugging are all better than Thomas’ highs.

Of course, as great a hitter as he’s been, Thomas is pretty much exclusively a hitter. Bagwell has significant advantages in baserunning and defense. He stole 202 bases in his career, at a respectable 72% rate. He also won a Gold Glove and had a very good defensive reputation. Thomas has never been a threat on the basepaths (32 career steals), and he’s always been a lousy defensive player. Bagwell played first based in over 98% of his career games. Thomas was at first in only 42% of his games, and was his team’s primary first baseman in just six seasons.

Bagwell had 387 career Win Shares. At the moment, Thomas is at 405.

Bagwell had 146 Win Shares Above Average (WSAA). Thomas has 157, give or take a couple.

In his five best seasons, Bagwell had Win Share totals of 41, 37, 32, 30, and 30 (172 total).

In his five best seasons, Thomas had Win Share totals of 39, 34, 34, 33, and 32 (170 total).

Bagwell’s five best WSAA seasons: 23, 18, 18, 13, 12 (84 total).

Thomas’ five best WSAA seasons: 23, 16, 16, 15, 15 (85 total). 

Bottom line, Thomas beats Bagwell in hitting by a slim margin. Bagwell beats Thomas in everything else by a wide margin. Given that the bulk of their value is on offense, as an overall player, Thomas might – might – have a slight advantage. But Bagwell was nearly as great, and was a much more well-rounded player. If I had to choose between the two in 1990, knowing full well what they’d do in their careers, I’d probably take Bagwell.

The notion that Frank Thomas is a “much better player” than Jeff Bagwell is patently absurd, akin to saying that Mays was “much better” than Mantle. Thomas and Bagwell are about as close as two all-time greats can be. They both belong in the Hall of Fame.