The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredible story. They went from 66 wins last year to 97 this year, winning the American League East title. They won playing the majority of their games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays, three very good teams. How good? According to their Pythagorean W-L record (the record the teams should have had based on their runs scored and runs allowed), the Red Sox were a 95-win team. The Blue Jays were a 93-win team. The Rays were a 92-win teams. The Yankees were an 87-win team. That is a really tough division.
The Rays won. In doing so, they literally turned their franchise around, going from 96 loses to 97 wins, improving their record by an astonishing 31 games.
Which got me wondering: are the 2008 Rays the greatest turn-around team of my lifetime? What is the mark of a turn-around team? What are the forgotten turn-around teams? Which team had the greatest turnaround?
I’ll start with a question: in the last twenty-five years (not counting the strike seasons), how many teams would you guess have improved their record by 20 games in a single season? How many teams went from 71 wins to 91 wins, or 80 wins to 100 wins, or 60 wins to 80 wins? Over the last twenty-five years.
I might have guessed eight. Or ten. I could name about that many.
In the last twenty-five years, there have been thirty-seven teams who improved their record by 20 or more wins.
Thirty-seven. In twenty-five season.
It’s actually a common occurrence: in any given year at least one team will pull it off. In 2001, four different teams pulled off the feat: the Mariners, Cubs, Phillies and Astros.
So who are the biggest turn-around teams? Let’s run ‘em down.
The +20’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
2004
|
Cardinals
|
105
|
85
|
20
|
|
2000
|
Cardinals
|
95
|
75
|
20
|
|
2000
|
White Sox
|
95
|
75
|
20
|
|
1990
|
Tigers
|
79
|
59
|
20
|
These teams are mostly remembered, but are generally not perceived as amazing turn-around teams. The 1999 White Sox and Cardinals weren’t great teams, but they weren’t horrible. The Cards slip in 2003 was a minor blip on the radar: they had been good before that and were good after that. As for the Tigers, well, they make a few more appearances on these lists.
The +21’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1991
|
Twins
|
95
|
74
|
21
|
|
1990
|
Pirates
|
95
|
74
|
21
|
|
2001
|
Astros
|
93
|
72
|
21
|
|
1986
|
Giants
|
83
|
62
|
21
|
|
2003
|
Royals
|
83
|
62
|
21
|
|
2003
|
Cubs
|
88
|
67
|
21
|
|
2001
|
Phillies
|
86
|
65
|
21
|
|
1988
|
Dodgers
|
94
|
73
|
21
|
|
1996
|
Padres
|
91
|
70
|
21
|
Some of these teams are memorable. The 2003 Royals, managed by Tony Pena, are particularly memorable, as the team had suffered a long stretch of futility before finally cobbling together a winning season. The 1991 Twins and 1988 Dodgers each won World Series Titles, and the Twins, at least, were a last-to-first team (though they didn’t have the worst record in the American League).
The 1986 Giants are interesting, if only as a contrast to the 1986 Indians in the American League. Both teams went from posting lousy records in 1985 to suddenly jumping into respectability in 1986. In 1987, Sports Illustrated jumped on the Cleveland bandwagon and picked the Indians to win the World Series, and the Indians, responding to the sudden optimism, lost 100 games. S.I. picked the wrong turn-around team: it was the Giants who maintained their ground, winning 90 games in 1987.
The +22’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1984
|
Mets
|
90
|
68
|
22
|
|
1998
|
Padres
|
98
|
76
|
22
|
|
1997
|
Giants
|
90
|
68
|
22
|
|
1998
|
Cubs
|
90
|
68
|
22
|
|
1992
|
Orioles
|
89
|
67
|
22
|
|
1996
|
Twins
|
78
|
56
|
22
|
The 1984 Mets, with Strawberry and Gooden, ushered in an era of remarkable prosperity for that franchise, and the 1998 Padres were a surprise team in 1998, but most of these teams are forgotten about.
The +23’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1988
|
A's
|
104
|
81
|
23
|
|
2004
|
Padres
|
87
|
64
|
23
|
|
2001
|
Cubs
|
88
|
65
|
23
|
|
2004
|
Tigers
|
72
|
49
|
23
|
Man, the recent Cubs teams have had a recent habit of having up and down years. The 1998, 2001, and 2003 Cubs teams all make this list, and the 2007 team (+19) just missed the cut. That’s remarkable, when you think about it: the recent Cubs teams might be the most roller-coaster team in baseball history. Which does not bode well for 2009.
The 1988 A’s marked the beginning of a small dynasty.
The +24’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
2006
|
Tigers
|
95
|
71
|
24
|
|
2002
|
Angels
|
99
|
75
|
24
|
The 2006 Tigers are a memorable surprise team. IN 2007 they added Sheffield and had a near-MVP season by Magglio Ordonez, and won only 88 games. In 2008 they added Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and won only 74 games. Subtraction by addition?
The +25’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1984
|
Cubs
|
96
|
71
|
25
|
|
2001
|
Mariners
|
116
|
91
|
25
|
|
1990
|
White Sox
|
94
|
69
|
25
|
|
1986
|
Rangers
|
87
|
62
|
25
|
With the exception of the 1986 Rangers, these teams were winners or at the least strong contenders. The 1984 Cubs are the obvious ‘turn-around’ team: a memorable club that crested at just the right time, snagging a very neutral National League.
The +26’s
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
2005
|
D'Backs
|
77
|
51
|
26
|
|
1986
|
Indians
|
86
|
60
|
26
|
|
1997
|
Tigers
|
79
|
53
|
26
|
It’s more likely for a bad team to improve dramatically than a decent team. There are nine 100-loss teams on the list, and only three teams that finished above .500. Why?
It’s the regression to the center principle in effect, I think. All teams are pulled to the center, so if you are an 81-win club, you’re going against the current with every additional win. If you’re a 60-win team, you’re going with the current for those first 21 wins.
(Which makes a compelling case that the 2001 Mariners might be the most remarkable team on this list. I mean, they won 91 games in 2000, which is very good. To win twenty-six more games against that current is damned remarkable. Especially with the loss of A-Rod, Randy Johnson, and Ken Griffey, Jr.)
Anyway, the +26’s are mostly bad teams that rode the current to neutrality. The D’Backs and Tigers improved dramatically, but they were still losers. The 1996 Indians were a little better, but then they got a whole lot worse in 1987.
That’s thirty-two teams, which leaves us five contenders for the Greatest Turn-Around Teams of the last twenty-five years.
The +27-+35: The Great Turn-Arounds
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1993
|
Phillies
|
97
|
70
|
27
|
|
1991
|
Braves
|
94
|
65
|
29
|
|
2008
|
Rays
|
97
|
66
|
31
|
|
1993
|
Giants
|
103
|
72
|
31
|
|
1999
|
D'Backs
|
100
|
65
|
35
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
These are all memorable teams, all teams a casual baseball fan is acquainted with.
Let’s look at the entrants from 1993 first. The Phillies are certainly one of the most memorable out-of-the-blue teams in my lifetime, with Dykstra and Kruk and Daulton. The 1993 Giants are one of two teams on this list who were turned around by Barry Bonds (the other being the 1990 Pirates).
But both teams won 70+ games the year before, which isn’t great, but it isn’t terrible, either. And neither team was the worst in the NL that year. Finally, doesn’t the fact that two lousy teams were able to turn themselves around speak to a general parity to the league?
We’re trying to determine the Greatest Turn-Around Team of the last twenty-five years. It’s tough competition. The 2003 Phillies and Giants are out.
That leaves us three teams, all of whom went from being the worst teams in their leagues to winning their division.
The Final Three
|
Year
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Wins (Prev. Year)
|
Wins (+)
|
|
1991
|
Braves
|
94
|
65
|
29
|
|
2008
|
Rays
|
97
|
66
|
31
|
|
1999
|
D'Backs
|
100
|
65
|
35
|
What changed for these teams? How did they go from worst to first? Who were the emergent players?
1991 Braves: The Braves hit pay-dirt with three fine rookie pitchers: Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery. They had an MVP year from newly acquired Terry Pendelton, and a terrific year from Charlie Leibrandt. Mostly it was home-grown pitchers.
1999 Diamondbacks: They opened up the check book and their bats got way more potent. The best hitters on the 1998 team (Matt Williams and Jay Bell) had way better years in 1999. Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley arrived. And Randy Johnson signed a huge free agent deal.
2008 Rays: Evan Longoria and Dioner Navarro had great breakout years. Their young pitchers got better. And free agent Troy Perceval was a decent closer for most of the year.
How about league factors? What was their opposition like? Were they in a tough division, or an easy one? Did they cruise to the title or have to battle down the stretch? And once the playoffs started, how did they do? Deer in the headlights, or playing with a vengeance?
1991 Braves: Well, the Braves had six teams to contend with, so that merits an edge. And they certainly had the Dodgers, who finished a game behind them, breathing down their necks. Pretty tough division.
1999 Diamondbacks: A lightweight division. Only the Giants finished with a record above .500. And the D’Backs were destroyed by the Wild Card Mets in the NLDS.
2008 Rays: As I said before, this was a really tough division. The AL East had four pennant-quality teams, four teams capable of 88-95 wins. And with the weighted schedule, the Rays were at a disadvantage.
The Greatest Turn-Around Team of My Life
The Diamondbacks are the most improved, based on wins. That said, they played in a weak division, and benefited from a weighted schedule. They also benefited from some huge off-season acquisitions: they spent their way to a better record. On this basis, they’re out.
It comes down to the Braves and Rays. These teams are rather similar: both have great young pitching staffs, complimented by good young hitters.
I loved those Braves teams, but the Rays have had a steeper climb. They play in a harder division, a division where they are outspent 4-to-1 by their opponents. Their most significant free agent signing during the off-season was Eric Hinske. Yet they won three more games than the Braves did, improving their record by 31 games.
I don’t think it’s even close: the 2008 Rays are the Greatest Turn-Around Team of the last twenty-five years.
(Dave Fleming is working on an epic poem about Jason Varitek, tentatively titled, “He Might Have Dropped The Ball, But He Still Has A Hold On My Heart.” He welcomes comments, suggestions, and angry rule clarifications from Angels fans at dfleming1986@yahoo.com)