I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about the Pittsburgh Pirates recently.  Too much time, to be honest.  But they fascinate me. 

As a franchise, they have currently tied the professional sports record for most consecutive losing seasons in a row.  No other franchise in the history of MLB, the NFL, the NBA, or the NHL has had more losing seasons in a row.  Not the pathetic Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the seventies, or the hapless Los Angeles Clippers basketball teams of the eighties, or the comical expansion New York Mets of the sixties, or…  well, any other team you can think of, really.  Right now, they have tied the MLB record set by the Philadelphia Phillies, with sixteen consecutive losing seasons.  Next year, if they finish below .500 again, they can hold the all-time, all-sports record all by themselves.  That’s really not the kind of honor you want to lock down. 

They ended the year 2008 with a 67-95 record, finishing a mere 30.5 games back of the Cubs in the division.  In 2007, they were 68-94.  In 2006, they were 67-95.  In 2005, they were 67-95.  Perhaps you sense a trend there.  To make things worse, they traded a group of their best players last year.  Damaso Marte got traded.  Xavier Nady got traded.  Jason Bay got traded.  As the icing on the cake, their farm system looks pretty bleak.  Ummm…  Not looking good.

At this point, here is how the Pirates are shaping up for 2009, with their 2008 season Win Shares listed in the far right column:

117 Win Shares translates to about 39 total team victories.  Quite frankly, that doesn’t look like the team that’s going to break the streak.  No.  Instead, that looks like a team that might smash the record for consecutive losing seasons and put it out of reach at DiMaggio-like levels for generations to come.  That team looks like it might be on the short end of the stick for years and years to come.

But all is not lost.  There is hope.  There is opportunity.  I have a proposal on how to salvage the pride and legacy of the struggling Pirates franchise.  As proposals go, it’s a pretty simple strategic plan.  It consists of only one step.  Are you ready?  Here it comes:

Step One:

Spend some money, go out and sign some free agents.

And…  That’s it. 

That’s all there is to it.

Uh, yeah.  I told you it was a simple plan.

Here’s why it’s a good idea: due to the recent national economic upheaval, it’s a depressed market.  As a league-wide phenomenon, teams are cutting back on their budgets, cutting back on their spending, and they are reluctant to shell out for big, guaranteed, long-term, free agent contracts.  In today’s economic climate, there’s an opportunity for bargains.  Don’t forget, the primary lesson of the Moneyball era is not that you want to have a high OBP team – the primary lesson is that you want to take advantage of market inefficiencies.

In addition, if you sign free agents, you don’t have to trade away any of the precious few prospects in the system needed in order to revive the franchise in the short-term future.  You can create immediate results, without mortgaging the future of the franchise.

Signing quality, big-name free agents is the quickest way to reverse the fortunes of a team.  And when you have spent sixteen consecutive seasons clawing frantically to stay out of the division cellar, I think it becomes obvious that something radical needs to be done.

Here’s one possible scenario.  Let’s say, for example, that the Pirates go out and sign Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, and Brandon Lyon.  Take a look at how that team would shape up:

I feel like these changes would help improve the team and give them a chance to be competitive.  The pitching in particular looks really good, and even if Burnett and Sheets experience some of the health problems that have plagued them in the past, the rotation has enough depth, and the bullpen is strong enough to cover up any short-term adversity.  Plus, adding players like Furcal, Hudson, and Teixeira would really shore up the infield defense, giving the staff the confidence to throw more strikes and put more balls in play.

Let’s compare those two possible 2009 Pirates teams side by side:

Even at a quick glance, you can tell that the new roster seems decidedly stronger.  The team has better balance, superior hitting, and excellent pitching in both the rotation and out of the pen.  Even though there isn’t any improvement at catcher or center field, I don’t see any realistic way to upgrade at those positions in this year’s free agent market so it seems sensible to let the incumbents, Doumit and McLouth, keep their spots.  In all fairness, they were pretty decent contributors last year (plus McLouth did win a Gold Glove in 2008.)  Taking a look at the numbers, there’s a difference of 183 Win Shares between the two squads, which translates to +61 team victories.  Last year, Pittsburgh won 67 games.  If they improve by +61 wins, they would project to 128 wins in the regular season.  This would comfortably insure a .500 record, and help snap their record-breaking losing slide.

Finally, another positive development from signing guys like Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood is that they would deprive the Cubs of their services, giving the Pirates an opportunity to improve while also damaging the prospects of the current divisional kingpins.

If you have any thoughts you want to share, I would love to hear from you.  I can be contacted at roeltorres@post.harvard.edu.  Thank you.