1)  Predictions from last week

            Our predictions for Week Fourteen were 12-4, making us 105-56-1 on the season.   That’s 162 decisions, a familiar number for those of you who might be baseball fans.   We came pretty close on some of the scores.   Baltimore over Washington, which we had predicted at 23-9 Baltimore, was actually 24-10 Baltimore.   New England at Seattle, which we had predicted at 24-20, came in just one point off at 24-21.    We had predicted New Orleans nipping Baltimore 28-26; it was actually 29-25.   We had Pittsburgh over Dallas 24-14; it was actually 20-13.   We had Atlanta over St. Louis 37-16; it was actually 34-10.   We had Tennessee over Cleveland 24-10; it was actually 28-9.  

2)  Predictions for this week

             As mentioned here several times, in past years the Home Field Advantage has historically been larger in December than prior to December.   This was the first week of December games, and the home teams outscored the invaders by a whopping nine points a game, so I’m going to ahead and nudge the home field edge, in this week’s predictions, from 3 points to 4.  

3)  Updated Rankings        

            Our current rankings are as follows:

              Game of the Week:  Seattle (2-11) at St. Louis (2-11).  May the best team survive. 

4)  Team Scoring and Allowing Tendencies 

            These are the current S&A numbers for the 32 NFL teams:

             In all candor we’re not doing great with predicting points scored.   In week fourteen there were six games that we predicted would have 50 or more points scored—average 53.4.   The actual points scored in those games averaged 43.0.   Let me summarize that in a chart:

             The point averages in the last two weeks have run markedly lower than predicted, which is what one would intuitively expect when the weather gets colder, so I modified the prediction system this week to reduce expected points scored in each game by 10%.    When I get some time I can research historic patterns of how point totals vary within the season, and perhaps by home town—presumably Green Bay is different from San Diego.    Anyway, New Orleans has an S&A tendency of 7.95 and Chicago of 6.70, so we would expect 53 points to be scored in the game (7.95 * 6.70).   But we reduced it to 48, because points are running low.   Because of this we have no games predicted in the 50s, nine in the 40s, five in the 30s, and two games predicted to be in the twenties.  

6)  NFL Team Temperatures

            Baltimore is still the hottest team in the NFL; St. Louis remains the coldest.   Current NFL Temperatures are:

             That’s all I’ve got time to get to this week. . .sorry.    Appreciate your patience.