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Broken: The Prospect

December 30, 2008

 

Questions Too Big For My Head

Where does your life go? Are you happy? Do you consider yourself a success? Often, we are at the mercy of timing. Often, we put ourselves in the hands of fate.

I think every person has to figure out for themselves what makes them happy. It's different for everyone. Some people want to get married, and raise a family. That's their life's goal. Some folks dedicate themselves to a cause – like ending racism, or saving the planet – in order to try and make the world a better place. A lot of people want to make a good living, to earn a good wage. From my own experiences, I know that my mom loved being a doctor because she wanted to heal people who were sick. A lot of my friends became teachers because they wanted to reach out and make a difference to young people who needed guidance and instruction. We are all guided by different voices, different callings.

And how do we measure these lives? How do we judge them? I guess, what I'm trying to get at here is, What is success? It's a big question. And I'm not going to answer it. I'm going to talk about Andy Marte instead. That's a topic more my speed. That's a subject I think I can handle.

One List Too Many

Andy Marte played in the Major Leagues last year. He didn't have a particularly notable season. It wasn't all that good. He played in 80 games for the Cleveland Indians, batting .221, with 3 homers and 17 RBI's. His OBP was .268, and he slugged .315. You want more offense than that from your starting corner infielder. That's not going to get it done. Those are journeyman numbers, stats that tend to fly under the radar. Most of time, I wouldn't notice a player like that. But I keep track of Andy Marte, to see how he's doing. To see whether we are headed towards a happy ending or not. Me, I'm rooting for the happy ending. I really am.

Andy Marte came to my attention when he made history three years ago. Baseball America named him the top prospect in two different organizations, in the same year. These weren't struggling, middling organizations, mind you, they were development machines. On November 7, 2005 Marte was named the best prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization at a time when they had touted players like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yunel Escobar, Chuck James, and Joey Devine in their Top Ten Prospects list. Baseball America's scouting report on Marte was glowing:

Marte’s stroke has a natural slight uppercut that generates plenty of loft power. The ball jumps off his bat, and he drives the ball to all fields and is capable of hitting tape-measure shots. He’s an aggressive hitter who makes pitchers pay for their mistakes, though he also can hit for a solid average and has patience at the plate. His walk rate increased substantially in 2005. In addition to being the quintessential power hitter at the hot corner, Marte continues to improve upon his above-average skills with his glove. Managers rated him the best defensive third baseman in the International League—the fourth consecutive year he earned that honor in his league. He possesses excellent lateral movement and a strong, accurate arm. The Braves also love Marte’s maturity and even-keeled approach to the game, both of which should lead to a seamless move to the majors once an opening arises.”

Hits for tape-measure power. Hits for average. Has patience at the plate. Named the best defensive third baseman in the league four years in a row. Good maturity and an even-keeled approach. That's a pretty decent scouting profile for a player. In trying to predict Marte's future, Baseball America concluded: “The Braves have little question that Marte will be an impact player in the major leagues.”

Marte was then traded to Boston. And when Baseball America published the Top Ten Prospects list for the Red Sox on January 6, 2006 – less than two months after the Braves write-up – Marte assumed the top position for that franchise as well. It needs to be pointed out that he rose above some pretty tough competition. Seriously, you have no idea. The number ten prospect in the Red Sox system was Clay Buchholz. Number nine was Jed Lowrie. Eight was Manny Delcarmen. Seven was Kelly Shoppach. Six was Jacoby Ellsbury. Five was Dustin Pedroia. Four was Craig Hansen. The number three prospect was Jonathan Papelbon. And the number two prospect for the Red Sox that year was Jon Lester. That's... ridiculous. That's a loaded list. Loaded. All of those guys have gone on to play in the Major Leagues and experience some success. Looking at those names, you see All-Stars, an AL MVP, and two guys who've thrown no-hitters in the Majors. And Andy Marte? He was at the head of the class. He was ranked above them all.

Andy Marte was a great prospect. It's hard to remember that these days, but he really was. Here was a kid better than anyone in the Braves system. Here was a kid better than anyone in the Red Sox system. Here was a kid better than Saltalamacchia and Escobar and Lester and Papelbon and Pedroia. No player had ever been named as the Number One Prospect for two different organizations in the same season. But it's been a difficult, rocky journey for him so far. He hasn't proven he can hit Major League pitching. Yet. He still has a shot, are people are still waiting for him, but the clock is ticking and I would guess that patience is wearing thin.

My Beautiful Reward

I remember my first job out of college. I was hired to work in a publishing house in New York. I think we all tend to remember our “Firsts”, don't we? Our first car. The first kiss. The first broken heart. Well, this was my first real job, and my first steady paycheck. A big step for me.

I had graduated from Harvard in three years, with Honors. When I was accepted to the school, my mom had requested that I complete my studies in three. I told her that I would. We had an agreement. She would take care of the financial end, pay my tuition, and she made sure that I never had to worry about bills. For my part, I had to take care of the academic end, study hard, and graduate a year ahead of schedule. That was the deal. It was a deal made out of necessity. I knew that. My brother and I are a year apart, and we were both going to be in college at the same time. As a family, we couldn't afford that fourth year. No chance. As it was, my mom and my older sisters spent too much time sitting in the dark, waiting in the cold, because they could not afford to pay the electric and heating bills some months, and the utilities would be shut off.

(I didn't know that at the time. They didn't tell me while I was still in school. I only found out about it years after I had graduated. In three years, as promised.)

After graduation, I was spending time with my girlfriend, Kristen, at her mom's house. Kristen and I were talking about living together, moving to New York. I was applying for jobs in the publishing industry at the time, and would go on to land one of those entry-level positions working for Viking and Penguin Books a couple of months later.

Kristen's mom asked me, “What's the starting salary for those jobs in New York?”

I said, “About $18,000 a year.”

She couldn't believe it. Without hesitating, she asked me, “Is that all they're paying Harvard grads these days?” Um... I didn't know how to answer that. Well, I suppose the answer was, “Yes.” Or, more accurately, “That's what they pay entry-level positions in the book publishing industry.” I was a little embarrassed. I knew people expected more of me. I knew I was supposed to take my degree and make more out of it. Sure.

When I took that job as a publicity assistant for Viking/Penguin, in many ways, I was living out my dream. I was living in NYC, working with great authors and fiction and novels and literature. The decision made sense to me. It seemed like a noble calling. It was what I wanted to do. I thought it was a good job.

But I couldn't escape the facts: Harvard Grad. Eighteen grand a year. And I realized that sometimes the choices we make for ourselves, the decisions we make to pursue our personal happiness, lead other people to conclude that we aren't succeeding. Or, to put it less kindly, that we are failing. That we are failing at life.

I don't know if you've ever felt that kind of judgment, but it's not a good feeling. I wouldn't recommend it. Not at all.

Weird Facts

(Weird Fact Number One: The funny thing about Andy Marte's distinction as the only player to be named the Top Prospect for two different organizations in the same year is that it is completely attributable to a quirk in publishing deadlines. Baseball America doesn't publish their organizational lists simultaneously. They release them one at time, staggering them, starting with each team from one league in November, taking a break through the holidays, then moving on to the other league in January.

In odd-numbered years, like 2005 and 2007, Baseball America starts in the American League then moves to the National. In even-numbered years, they reverse things. It's an arbitrary choice, and the schedule could just as easily be arranged the other way around. But if Baseball America had been scheduled to start with the American League in 2006, Marte would not have ended up at the top of two lists. No. Instead, he would have appeared on none. He would have been a member of the Braves when the Red Sox prospects were named, so he wouldn't have appeared there. And he would have been a member of the Red Sox when the Atlanta list was released, so he would have missed that window of opportunity as well.

Even-numbered years or odd ones. Starting with the National League or the American. It was the difference between Marte making two lists, instead of none. How would that have changed things for him? I don't know. I guess he would have been the same exact player, with the same exact abilities – but with a whole different set of expectations.)

(Weird Fact Number Two: In the same off-season that Marte was traded from the Braves to the Red Sox, he was traded one more time. Boston sent him to the Cleveland Indians, in exchange for centerfielder Coco Crisp. And, when that happened, the editors of Baseball America noted that he was considered the Top Prospect in the Indians' system.

But he didn't make the Cleveland list – because it had already been published only four days earlier.

What if the timing was different? What if those four days disappeared? What if Baseball America had named Andy Marte the Top Prospect for three different organizations in the same year? How would that have changed things for him? I'm not sure. He would have been the same exact player, with the same exact abilities – but I suppose it's possible that the notoriety and the expectations would be even greater for him than they are today...)

(Weird Fact Number Three: When I was in College, I lived in the same House as Matt Damon, Lowell House. He was just a young, unknown actor at the time, hustling for parts. In the years after I graduated, when I was making between $18 to $22,000 a year, he wrote, starred in, and won an Oscar for the movie “Good Will Hunting.” For a long time, I could not bring myself to watch any Matt Damon movies. They made me feel resentful. They made me feel inadequate. They made me feel ashamed. And I know that this is going to sound absolutely crazy, but I realized I had made an emotional breakthrough in my life once I could start watching Matt Damon movies without feeling waves of existential angst washing over me. True story.)

These Parallels Lines

Last year, Andy Marte played in 80 games for the Cleveland Indians, batting .221, with 3 homers and 17 RBI's. His OBP was .268, and he slugged .315. You want more offense than that from your starting corner infielder. That's not going to get it done. You expect more from the first man to be named the Number One Prospect of two different organizations in the same season.

After graduating college, I worked as a publicity assistant for Viking/Penguin Books. My salary was $18,000. It was a big step for me, my first time living on my own, my first job, my first steady paycheck. But I knew what most people thought – That's not going to get it done. They expected more from a kid who graduated from Harvard in three years, with Honors. The world expected more out of me.

Society can create labels. Expectations can come from external sources, sources that you can't control. We can't control how people judge us. It's out of our hands.

What makes you a success?

Damned if I know. No idea. It's a question too big for me. I can't possibly begin to answer it. I'm just here to talk about Andy Marte.

The Season Ahead

I look at Andy Marte and I wonder what's going to happen. In many ways, he is living out his dream. Born in the Dominican Republic, he is a 25 year-old athlete, playing in the Major Leagues. At the moment, he seems to be at the top of the Indians' depth chart. He has an opportunity to be their starting third baseman at the beginning of next season. And yes, I'm going to keep track of him, to see how he's doing. To see whether we are headed towards a happy ending or not.

Me, I'm rooting for the happy ending.

I really am.

 

 

 

 

If you have any thoughts you want to share, I would love to hear from you. I can be contacted at roeltorres@post.harvard.edu. Thank you.

 
 

COMMENTS (16 Comments, most recent shown first)

RoelTorres
I'm not sure what Marte's MLEs were, but I suspect that Park/League factors were not that influential in Marte's assessment because Baseball America's rankings tend to be based on Scouting Reports as opposed to statistical analysis. His scores on a 20-80 scouting scale would be more important than his actual numbers.

When I wrote my essay, the main point I wanted to communicate is the external nature of people's expectations and how they judge a person's level of success. Now that I am engaged in the reader posts, I wonder if I should have made that more explicit in my original piece. Something to consider for the future.
6:22 PM Jan 22nd
 
evanecurb
Your point about expectations is well made and well said. The Herschel Walker - Terrell Davis comparison is very interesting and a good example of how expectations color our perceptions of performance. I guess Walker was actually an all star who was criticized for not being a Hall of Famer and was not really that comparable to Sampson at all. But in my mind, he and Sampson were equivalent, which reinforces your point about expectations. With all of the hype in the sports world the past fifteen years or so, it seems to be difficult for elite athletes to live up to the expectations that are set forth in the media. I can think of a few examples of athletes who have lived up to their expecations: Tiger Woods, A Rod, Ken Griffey, Jr., Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Shaq....I guess this makes it harder for those who don't live up to the hype.
11:52 PM Jan 19th
 
evanecurb
What were Marte's MLEs during the period where he was ranked so highly? Is it possible there is a park or league effect at work here?
11:43 PM Jan 19th
 
RoelTorres
Hi Evan/Bruce,

You're absolutely right, trying to predict the growth curve of young athletes is an unreliable business, and one that is often full of blunders and misjudgments. Taylor, Sampson, and Walker are three names that we can invoke out of thousands and thousands of possible athletes. It's hard to tell who will be great, and who will come up short.

I guess part of what I want to touch on in the essay is the external nature of expectations. Many, many players come up short of greatness, but in some cases it's considered a disappointment. People can look at Terrell Davis and say that he played hard, he maximized his opportunities, and that exceeded expectations. People can look at Herschel Walker and say that he was a failure, he never achieved what he was capable of, and that he fell short of expectations. Yet, Walker played in the NFL longer, had more career rushing yards, and had more TDs than Davis despite playing behind inferior offensive lines (and that doesn't even include his stats playing for the New Jersey Generals in the USFL.) What is considered a remarkable set of accomplishments for one man, is seen as squandered natural talent for another.

I think that sometimes public judgment is influenced by external factors outside of actual performance. Andy Marte's performance is statistically defined, objective, concrete, and indisputable. What is harder to pin down for him is what people expect out of his game. He became noteworthy and historic when Baseball America named him the top prospect in two organizations in the same season. What if he was named the top prospect in three organizations? In only one organization? No organizations? I'm not sure. It's all theoretical. But it does make me wonder.

It's true that Marte may have peaked early. It certainly does happen in some cases. But when I look at his scouting report (power, average, patience, defense, maturity) and the players he was rated above (Pedroia, Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, etc.) I can't help but hope that there is more to come from Marte.

Thanks for your thoughts. Good to hear from you. Happy New Year!
5:17 PM Jan 3rd
 
evanecurb
Projecting performance from youth to maturity remains a tricky business. A lot of progress has been made in the area of player projections, but there will always be some Brad Komminsks out there. Whether Marte becomes another Brad Komminsk or not will be interesting to see. There could be some missing elements here: Did Marte have a nagging injury this year? Did Baseball America's evaluation miss some key element such as park factors or plate discipline that would have revealed a weankness, or is this an inexplicable occurrence? Whenever I think about prospects, I remember three phenomenal athletes from sports other than baseball who came into prominence in the 1980s. When I was 19, my family moved to Williamsburg, VA. Lawrence Taylor was a senior defensive end that fall on the local high school football team. He was a good high school player, named to the all regional team. But he wasn't all state. He wasn't a high school All American. What happened? Well, when he went to UNC, he apparently became much bigger, faster, and more aggressive, improving at a rate that far exceeeded the rate of improvement of any other college players. He graduated in 1981 as a consensus first team All American, Outland Trophy winner (Or maybe Hugh Green won it that year, not sure) and a top NFL draft pick. He continued to improve in the pros and the rest is history.

In 1980-83, Ralph Sampson was the consensus pick as the best college basketball player in the nation, winning the award as top player three years in a row. This was an era when many future NBA Hall of Famers were in college, including Jordan, Ewing, Worthy, Olajuwon, Drexler, and Isaiah Thomas. Ralph was not successful in the pros. He may have had some minor injuries (not sure) but I think the real issue is that he didn't continue to improve and may have actually regressed after graduation from UVa.
Hershel Walker is very similar to Sampson, really. The best player in college football his freshman year at Georgia, I don't think he ever really became any better after that. So it looks like athletes peak at different ages. For Walker and Sampson, this age was very early. For Taylor and others, improvement continued into their mid to late 20s, then they were able to sustain a peak after that. I suspect the reasons are a combination of physical traits, work habits, coaching, and mental/emotional makeup.
In short, it could be that Andy Marte peaked early.
10:37 AM Jan 3rd
 
RoelTorres
Hi Clay,

It's not shocking that Cleveland isn't going to hand everything over to Marte. With his scuffling track record, it makes sense that contingency plans are in place. We'll just have to see how it plays out.
12:54 PM Jan 1st
 
clayyearsley
Uh-oh. Just read that Cleveland traded for Mark DeRosa, so he can play 3rd. Marte's got some competition. If he plays well, the Tribe can use DeRosa in the utility role he's become so adept at.
12:25 PM Jan 1st
 
RoelTorres
Hi Clay,

Good to hear from you. I appreciate the compliment.

As I got older, it got easier for me to separate my life from the expectations of others. I suppose it's nice when people expect you to go on and do great things. But what happens if you fall short of those expectations? Whose fault is that (if anyone's)?

I agree that defining success for yourself -- as an internal, personal process -- is critical to finding happiness. But some people don't always reach that conclusion. It's not always easy to disregard the popular opinion of society at large.

Happy birthday to your daughter! And a Happy New Year to you as well!
1:44 AM Jan 1st
 
clayyearsley
Roel - Another excellent piece. You're a big success here. The great thing about personal success is it's self-defined. If you consider yourself a success, then anyone who disagrees just doesn't understand the definition.
You also made me think about how we're all into immediate gratification. Geez, you graduated last week, dude, and you're only banking 18K. What a failure.
My youngest daughter is celebrating her 18th birthday tonight (actually her birthday was Christmas - sometime when I wasn't paying attention, the New Year's Eve Birthday Bash became a permanent fixture at my house). She's got what seems like a million friends here - 20 is probably a more correct estimate. They'll be graduating high school soon. I sure hope we give them a chance to find their way before deeming them failures at 19 or 22 or 40. One good thing about not being a professional athlete is that we usually aren't deemed failures by age 25. Marte's not a failure. Yet. But the clock's certainly ticking.
10:53 PM Dec 31st
 
RoelTorres
Hi David,

Cheers. I'm sure my rockin' quotient is open to debate. Happy New Year to you as well.
6:18 PM Dec 31st
 
cunegonde
Roel,

You rock. Happy New Year.

David
4:49 PM Dec 31st
 
RoelTorres
Hi JohnG,

Thanks for the support. I'm sure Marte appeared on a lot of people's radar screens due to Baseball America's Prospect Lists. It would be nice if he can follow through. Next season is certainly pivotal for his career.
2:36 PM Dec 31st
 
JOHNGARCIA
Great article Roel. Marte has always caught my interest as well. I hope he finds his stroke soon.
1:44 PM Dec 31st
 
RoelTorres
Hi Jeremy,
Hi Tom,

Thanks, guys. I appreciate the nice words. Hope you have a Happy New Year.


1:39 PM Dec 31st
 
tangotiger
Yes, excellent.
1:32 PM Dec 31st
 
Jeremy
Roel, great column. Thanks for sharing.
1:03 PM Dec 31st
 
 
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