1)    Predictions from last week

            We were 11-5 with last week’s predictions, making us 135-74-1 on the season. 

The games we were wrong about were:

            Miami over the Jets

            Houston over the Bears

            Oakland over the Buckin’ Ears

            Carolina over the Saints

            Indianapolis over the Titans

            We were close on two scores; we had it Arizona 30, Seattle 21; it was actually 34-21.  We had Minnesota edging by the Giants 24-23; it was actually 20-19. 

            We had predicted 707 points scored last week; it was actually 705, but that’s nothing, because you could do that just by predicting an average week.     This is the chart summarizing the point predictions:

                                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;               Predicted            Actual

                                            ​                         ​              Points              Points

            Predicted points 50 or more      Five Games     52.6                59.6

            Predicted points 40 to 49          Seven Games   44.0                 36.7

            Predicted points 30 to 39          Four Games     34.0                 40.0

2)  Updated Rankings

            Pittsburgh is back in the top slot. 

3)   Brief Observation

            The Lions are locked in history as the first 0-16 team, but they were really not that bad.     By my math, they’re not actually even the worst team in the league this year. . .last year.  2008.  

            Oh and sixteen, you’d think this would be a team that was getting blown out—but they really didn’t get blown out very much, and they actually hung with the playoff teams most of the year.   They lost to Minnesota, a playoff team, 12-10 and 20-16.    They lost to Atlanta 34-21, lost to Indianapolis 31-21.     They played a very tough schedule—39 points better than average, cumulative—and they were outscored by 249 points.   That’s bad, but it’s really not 0-16 bad; it’s more like 3-13 bad.    The Cardinals were outscored 2-to-1 on the season; the Lions weren’t.  

4)  Indianapolis at San Diego

            San Diego by 1, 24-23

            The popular wisdom is that Indianapolis is peaking at the right time, coming in hot, etc.    I don’t buy it.

            Look, you have to be impressed, to some extent, by Indianapolis coming in with nine straight wins.   I’m not saying that’s not an accomplishment; it is.

            But in all honesty, the Colts have not played all that well; they’ve just scraped out wins in close games.   The first five of those wins were 3 points, 4 points, 6 points, 3 points, and 4 points, the first four against solid opponents, the last against Cleveland.   They blew out Cincinnati, then beat Detroit 31-21 and Jacksonville 31-24.   Who’s impressed by that?   

            I’m glad to see San Diego in the playoffs, because they’re a lot better team than Denver, and they were a lot better team than Denver even when they were 4-8.  The Chargers have played their best two games of the season the last two weeks, scoring at 113.4 each week.    

I’m not saying this game is San Diego all the way; it isn’t.   San Diego has been up and down, and it’s not all injuries and bad officiating; they just haven’t played well in close games.  

            But the people who are saying that Indianpolis is going to the Super Bowl. . ..I just don’t see it.    Indianapolis has played better, on the whole, than San Diego has, and this game is a tossup.  But this week or next week, Indianapolis is going home.  

5)  Baltimore at Miami

            Baltimore 23, Miami 16

            Baltimore is a far better team—ten points better.   Baltimore’s performance averages were 107.1 (seven points above average) for the first eight games, 112.6 (thirteen points above average) for the second half the schedule.   Miami’s averages were 100.7 for the first eight games and 98.2 for the second eight.   It’s a football game and you never know, but. . .Baltimore should win fairly easily. 

6)  Atlanta at Arizona

            Atlanta 29, Arizona 23

            Do you realize that in this week’s games, the better team is on the road in all four games?   How does that happen?

            Arizona is a below-average team, and their performance scores were 101.4 for the first eight weeks, 94.9 the second half.    If Atlanta has a good week they’ll blow them out. 

7)  Philadelphia at Minnesota

            Philadelphia 23, Minnesota 20

            Philadelphia is certainly capable of losing this game, but I’m betting on them not to.   Andy Reid is always dangerous in a close game.