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Alomar and Biggio

January 19, 2009

Alomar and Biggio. Biggio and Alomar. Exact contemporaries, both among the greatest second basemen of all time. Which one was better?

For most of their careers, your average fan would have said Alomar. He probably would have laughed at you, too, that you would have to even ask such a silly question. Fans voted Alomar the All Star Game starter nine times; Biggio was chosen only four times. Altogether, Alomar had 12 All Star appearances, Biggio seven. Alomar did almost twice as well as Biggio in MVP voting, 1.91 award shares to 1.02. And while both were viewed as good fielders, Alomar was the more highly-regarded of the two, with 10 Gold Gloves to Biggio’s four.

As far as statistics... well, it depended on what stats you preferred. If you liked batting average, Alomar was your man: through 2001, he had a .306 career average, while Biggio was at .291. Alomar also had a few more homers, and 200 more RBI. He hit way more triples, and he stole more bases at a higher success rate. Here, take a look:

Player

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

Alomar

2034

7796

1341

2389

446

72

190

1018

446

106

902

949

.306

Biggio

1955

7383

1305

2149

437

46

180

811

365

110

913

1146

.291

Then again, Biggio did have his advantages. He was hit by way more pitches (197 to 45) and grounded into far fewer double plays (93 to 173). He also played in the National League, while Alomar’s best years were in the AL – a run in Biggio’s league meant more than a run in Alomar’s. As for defense, Alomar was good, but he wasn’t really any better than Biggio, as the Gold Gloves seemed to indicate. Defensively, it was pretty darned close to a wash.

Put it all together, and through 2001, it was a dead heat:

Player

OBP

SLG

OPS+

RC/27

WS

WSAA

Alomar

.378

.455

121

6.7

345

115

Biggio

.381

.436

121

6.6

342

119

Most people preferred Alomar. The sabermetric crowd liked Biggio. In some ways, this was a sort of litmus test: if you were a Biggio man, you were a thinking man. Because, to appreciate Biggio, you had to appreciate subtleties.

Going forward, Alomar looked like the better player. In the previous three years, he had been at the top of his game, hitting .323/.405/.515. Biggio, on the other hand, hand begun his decline, putting up a more modest .287/.385/.442 line. Plus, Alomar was only 33, and Biggio was 35. Alomar seemed like a sure thing for 3000 hits; Biggio, two years older and 240 hits behind, had only an outside shot.

What happened next surprised everyone: Alomar collapsed, and Biggio kept going for another six years. Alomar finished with 2724 hits; Biggio cleared 3000. Alomar, who becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame next year, is hardly assured of election. Biggio will cruise in on the first ballot.

Here’s how the pair performed after 2001:

Player

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

Alomar

345

1277

167

335

58

8

20

116

28

8

130

191

.262

Biggio

895

3493

539

911

231

9

111

364

49

14

247

607

.261

 

Player

OBP

SLG

OPS+

RC/27

WS

WSAA

Alomar

.331

.367

84

4.4

32

-7

Biggio

.324

.427

92

5.0

76

-11

Alomar and Biggio were dead-even through 2001. Does Biggio’s mediocre (but high-quantity) performance after 2001 outweigh Alomar’s poor, brief end? Does it put him on top? Here are their final career statistics:

Player

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

Alomar

2379

9073

1508

2724

504

80

210

1134

474

114

1032

1140

.300

Biggio

2850

10876

1844

3060

668

55

291

1175

414

124

1160

1753

.281

 

Player

OBP

SLG

OPS+

RC/27

WS

WSAA

Alomar

.371

.443

116

6.1

377

108

Biggio

.363

.433

111

5.9

428

108

But wait – we’ve left out two important (quantifiable) factors: peak and postseason. Their career totals are close, but how do they compare at their peaks? Conveniently, both players had 14 above-average seasons (based on WSAA). Here they are:

Alomar

Biggio

19

19

17

16

17

13

14

13

13

13

9

12

7

12

6

8

5

7

2

4

2

4

2

2

1

2

1

2

Alomar’s top five seasons edge Biggio’s, 80-74. But Biggio had more good years: his 6th-11th best seasons are all better than Alomar’s. Looking at each player’s top 10 seasons, Biggio leads, 117-109. In all 14 above-average seasons, Biggio has a 127-115 edge. In the end, Alomar’s only real peak advantage is that his third-best year is clearly superior to Biggio’s third-best. Biggio is essentially equal or better every other year.

I was ready to conclude here that Biggio was, in fact, the superior player. But take a look at both players in the postseason:

Player

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

Alomar

58

230

32

72

17

1

4

33

20

2

27

32

.313

.381

.448

Biggio

40

167

23

39

9

0

2

11

2

1

13

30

.234

.297

.323

Yes, the sample size is relatively small, but it’s not tiny. Biggio played a quarter-season’s worth of games in October, and he was awful. Alomar had more than a third of a season in the playoffs and World Series, and he was excellent. Biggio has no World Series rings; Alomar has two, plus an ALCS MVP award 

This discrepancy prompted me to check the clutch stats for both players. And there, too, we find a significant difference:

High-Leverage Situations (according to Baseball-Reference.com)

Alomar: .313/.379/.450

Biggio: .275/.359/.407

 

“Late and Close”

Alomar: .297/.378/.419

Biggio: .256/.349/.393

 

Bases Loaded

Alomar: .386/.385/.620

Biggio: .213/.273/.365

 

Extra Innings

Alomar: .329/.416/.435

Biggio: .281/.396/.395

 

They’re closer in other permutations of “clutch,” but Biggio is always at least a little bit behind Alomar. All in all, Alomar was better in the clutch.

The verdict? Really, it’s too close to call. However, I’m going with Biggio. He had seven “big years” (10+ WSAA) to Alomar’s five. And while the two players were basically even through 2001, Biggio added a few more years as a contributing player, if not a star. The difference between the two is razor-thin, and they both, without question, belong in the Hall of Fame. Today, I think Biggio comes out slightly ahead. But ask me tomorrow, and I’ll probably pick Alomar.

 
 

COMMENTS (12 Comments, most recent shown first)

DaveFleming
Great article. It's worth throwing Barry Larkin into the discussion, too, as his numbers are pretty close to Alomar's, though at a more valuable defensive position:

Alomar: .301/.371/.443, 2379 games
Larkin: .295/.378/,444, 2180 games
6:16 PM Feb 4th
 
Steven Goldleaf
Here, I'm going to forget I ever heard of Sabremetrics and react purely as a fan, a fan who only watched one of these guys and that for a few years, Alomar's Mets seasons, and report how fervently I hope he doesn't get a first-ballot nod. Few players have ever been detested by their hometown fans the way Alomar was detested by Mets fans, and with good reason. He didn't play well, he didn't play smart, he didn't play in any way that persuaded anyone watching closely that he cared just a bit about the outcome of the games. On a team with young hot dogs, he supposedly insisted on sliding headfirst into first base, which Art Howe was trying to persuade his younger hotshots (like Rey Ordonez) to quit doing, but it was obviously not a message they were going to hear while a veteran was doing it. Likewise, bunting in bizarre situations (like 2 out, man on second, while he was batting in the #3 hole), and playing safety-first on the DP. I believe (but can't begin to demonstrate, of course) that he wasn't liked by his teammates much more than by the fans, and he was the essense of a moody, difficult player the whole time his career was imploding. I don't know what his problem was when he played in NYC, but I was rooting for the Mets to deal him off almost all the time he spent here. He was horrible, and though that horror wasn't there in his other stops (my Blue Jays friends describe him as Dr. Jekyll to my Mr. Hyde) I hope the HoF voters recognize his stay at Shea at least enough to deny him a first-ballot entry. I hope caring counts for just a little bit in voters' minds, at least when it's as clear as it was here that he hated playing ball for the Mets.
11:06 AM Feb 1st
 
monahan
A quick note about the postseason stats:
Biggio was abysmal early in his postseason career, but put up solid numbers in '04 & '05 (the two postseasons that account for 26 of his 40 games). Meanwhile, all but 10 of Alomar's postseason games happened during his pre-age 29 peak phase.

Not sure my point, but found it interesting.
4:01 AM Jan 21st
 
Richie
I doubt that Alomar will be a 1st-ballot guy. None of the magic statistical markers. Not saying he shouldn't be, tho' if your definition of such is 'one of the absolute best of all time', I'd say he falls a bit short there. But all-around skill seems to get recognized a bit more slowly by the Hall voters.
11:41 PM Jan 20th
 
lar
Thanks for interesting article. I'm a fan of both guys, though I loved Alomar when he was playing (I was an O's fan), and I love Biggio now for his quite excellence. For some reason, I never really thought to put the two together, even though they were two contemporary Hall of Fame caliber second-baseman. Maybe it's because it took so long for people to recognize just how good Biggio was (Alomar's flash and multiple rings probably helped too).

Personally, I think they're both first ballot guys, and they probably won't have too many problems at all. Maybe people will hold the spitting incident against Alomar, but somehow I doubt it. I know it was a big deal at the time, but I don't think it's what people will remember about him (his flash was too much). Maybe my opinion is colored by the fact that I was a fan of his, though.

I actually just wrote something about Biggio (http://wezen-ball.blogspot.com/2009/01/through-years-craig-biggio.html), and now I think you've just inspired me to write about Alomar too. It'll be nice to see Biggio on the ballot in 2013; he should definitely be the positive foil to all the steroid stories we're bound to hear about Bonds and Clemens that year.
11:22 PM Jan 20th
 
rangerforlife
I beg to differ, mainly because I'm using different standards. I think Alomar's fairly comfortably in the lead. Checking BBPro's advanced metrics, Alomar was worth more wins (WARP3) over his career, 132-123. He also had more high-impact seasons; Biggio had the best season between them (13.5 WARP3), but Alomar had the next five best (all between 11 and 12 WARP3). Alomar rates as a slightly above-average fielder, Biggio somewhat below-average. They do both without question exceed HoF standards.

I wonder how (if at all) Alomar's spitting incident will affect his support.
3:27 PM Jan 20th
 
Richie
On this forum with these contributors, MVP, ASG and GG votes have no value as 'numbers' per se. They don't count up event results, but tabulate the subjective opinions of voters many of whom were innumerate. They're not what people on this site mean or are referring to when talking about 'numbers'.

Which is not to say such votes have no evidentiary value. Tho' I do give them less the closer to today those votes have been. If the voters of the 40s thought DiMaggio was a better player than Williams, they may have known stuff about the two that 60 years later I can't know. But I was here for Alomar and Biggio. Still possible those writers knew important stuff about them I never saw reported. But much less likely. So I'm more inclined to figure those writers saw so-and-so as a 'winner' (had better teammates), or 'sure looked great on defense' (hotdogged alot).
11:06 AM Jan 20th
 
ksclacktc
Oh really Richie! Of no value. As Bill James once said "it is the burden of the evidence". It is not just about the numbers.
8:30 AM Jan 20th
 
evanecurb
Matthew: excellent work, again. I read somewhere (Bill James' 2008 Goldmine?) that Biggio's regular season stats show a dramatic split between his performance against different quality pitchers, much greater than the split that would be expected by random chance. This was cited in the article as consistent with his poor postseason performance. Biggio was one of those guys who did a lot of things well; Alomar looked like an all time great. I enjoyed watching both players and I hope both make it on the first ballot.
11:29 PM Jan 19th
 
Richie
On this forum the MVP, ASG and (especially) GG numbers are suspect such as to have no value.

BillJ has an article somewhere on this site about Biggio, where he speculates that his poor postseason numbers did reflect an overachiever. So laudable, but truly of low value come crunch time. Assuming that's true, I'll then go with Alomar.
11:27 PM Jan 19th
 
ksclacktc
So the numbers are a wash? What about the fact Alomar had the edge in MVP shares 1.91 to 1.02, ASG 12 to 7 and GG 10 to 4. The eyeball test is tilted heavily to Alomar.I watched the two of them play for years and Alomar was more talented. This is supported by the awards voting, and it will in the HOF voting. If this statement is true, "hardly assured of election",there is something wrong.
9:31 PM Jan 19th
 
PeteDecour
very good analysis. very fair, thorough, and good job of ferreting out the playoffs and high-leverage stuff on alomar.

thanks
6:06 PM Jan 19th
 
 
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