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Errata

January 26, 2009
- On December 9th, I wrote an article entitled “Fast Starts” about the three-headed monster of teams atop the NBA, as well as the San Jose Sharks. Predictably, all three basketball teams fell off their pace, and none have a credible shot at the overall record. Unpredictably, a fourth team has joined the group, and is playing exceptional basketball, putting this year well in range of a different sort of record.
Even having lost two games in a row, Orlando sits at 33-10, a .767 winning percentage that currently ranks 3rd in their conference…and would be the 29th best winning percentage of all-time. If we remove teams that didn’t play 82 game schedules (presuming it’s harder to win a high percentage of your games over longer periods of time), Orlando’s projected record of 63-19 would be tied for 17th all-time with 8 other teams. And they are WAAAAAYYYY behind their league mates.
Just using current win rates, the Lakers, Cavaliers and Celtics would place as the 11th, 12th and 15th best teams of all time (pushing Orlando into 32nd place), at least according to winning percentage. This concentration of teams with great records in one season is unprecedented, and its not particularly close.
The only other seasons to have even TWO teams in the top 32 by winning percentage are 1995-1996 (record-setting Bulls and the hilariously ill-timed Seattle team that had Kemp, Payton, Schrempf, Hawkins, Perkins and McMillan), 1971-1972 (record-setting Lakers and the KobeShaqs of the early 70s, the Milwaukee Bucks of Kareem and Oscar Robertson), 1996-1997 (the middle child of the Bulls’ second three-peat and the Pickin’ and Rollin’ and Foulin’ and Scrappin’ Utah Jazz) and 2005-2006 (when both the West-leading Spurs and East-leading Pistons failed to make the Finals, instead giving us Dwyane Wade’s coming-out party…he looked soooo good standing on the line making foul shot after foul shot….the NBA, where me being unbelievably bored happens).
It gets even better, as the four teams have combined for 35 losses. Of those 35, seven have come against teams in the quartet.* The four teams have an astounding 132-28 record (.825 winning percentage) against the other 26 teams in the league. All four are averaging at least 7.75 more points per game than their opponents, and each team is at least seven games clear of the second-place team in its division.

Something else to keep your eye on while watching these four: Cleveland is currently 20-0 at home. The all-time record is 40-1, by the 1985-1986 Celtics. If Cleveland keeps playing this way, mark Sunday, April 2nd on your calendar. It’s Cleveland’s penultimate home game, and it’ll be against Boston, a team that lives to protect their organization’s honour.

 

- The Sharks, by the way, have 73 points after 45 games, a pace for 133 points in 82 games. The all-time record for points in a season is still the Montreal Canadiens of 1976-1977, who played only 80 games on their way to 132 points. The Bruins are on pace for 127 points, so a small hot streak could also put them in rarefied air as well.

On a more balanced schedule front, the Sharks are on pace to win 61.955555 games. The 1995-1996 Red Wings won 62. In case you were wondering….

 

- Finally, I don’t very much like college basketball, and I don’t very much like women’s basketball, but I occasionally get sucked in for ACC women’s hoops game, because it happens to be something my alma mater is good at, unlike its male equivalent. ** One reason that Maryland went from also-ran to national title contender in women’s hoops was the addition of Deborah Yow as athletic director. She brought her own experience with the women’s game, added an exceptional coach and recruiter in Brenda Frese and rallied the student body from outright animosity to mere lethargy concerning the attending of games.
The Yow family women are steeped in basketball, and the most successful sister died on Saturday, after a decades-long battle with breast cancer. Kay Yow was an excellent coach and a better person. She was an activist for breast cancer awareness for over two decades before her death, and while the coaches that were inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame with her in 2002 (Larry Brown and Lute Olson) have found ways to sully their reputation in the following years, she has only become more esteemed.
The game lost a great woman, and my condolences go out to the Yow family, the NC State team and everyone else who had reason to miss her.      
 
* Obviously, this means that 7 of the combined 139 wins have come against the quartet as well.

**85-44. Embarrassing.

 
 

COMMENTS (4 Comments, most recent shown first)

SeanKates
I think it's the nature of the sports. No baseball team is going .700-.750 either, which happens nearly every year in basketball. Almost all baseball teams are between .400 and .600 and the worst teams in the league routinely take 1/3 or 2/3 from the best teams in the league. However, there isn't as much movement up and down the ladder.

In basketball, bad teams get great players who can contribute right away. The baseball draft is a longer term process and the number of players important to the team spreads that issue out even further. That is, it's much easier to go from a 15 win basketball team of 1 good player and 4 mediocre players to a 40 win playoff team (in the East) with 2 good players and 3 mediocre players in one or two years, than it is to go from a 70 win team with 2 good players and 23 mediocre or worse players to a 90 win team in even a few years.

The year-to-year variance in basketball team performance is much higher, and the "goal" to reach the playoffs much lower. Just as an example, the Royals, Nats and Pirates probably can't expect to make the playoffs anytime in the next 5-8 years. All five of the worst NBA teams this year would be better than 50% picks to make the playoffs in the next 5 years, easily.
11:02 AM Feb 6th
 
3for3
What bugs me is we hear the talk about the bad teams can't compete every year in baseball, but there are few teams worse than 400, and almost none worse than 350. Why no hue and cry in hoops?
9:41 PM Feb 5th
 
SeanKates
Stealing an idea for my next bulleted article...you will pay!!!!

But seriously, I do want to take a look at that, because when you have that many teams at either end, it tends NOT to even out. That is, because the three Eastern teams are fighting for the #1 seed, they can't rest their players at the end of the year like teams with high winning percentages have in the past. When there are a lot of teams at the bottom of the league, tanking becomes an even more enticing strategy (even with the basketball lottery system). ESPECIALLY in a year where almost all scouts admit there are maybe 2-3 game-changing players and then a lot of guys who might max out as NBA regulars, if that.
11:03 AM Feb 4th
 
3for3
How about the other end? 5 teams are .255 or worse, and of course many of their wins come against each other....
11:02 AM Feb 3rd
 
 
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