August 13 Poll Report
Good afternoon. I did a poll yesterday and am not trying to do them every day anymore, but I will not be able to post polls for the next two days because of work commitments, so I decided to post this one today. John Hickenlooper overachieved at the expense of the dormant Howard Schultz in yesterday’s poll:
Scores
|
Hickenlooper
|
263
|
Schultz
|
163
|
Ryan
|
147
|
Weld
|
213
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Hickenlooper
|
33
|
Schultz
|
21
|
Ryan
|
19
|
Weld
|
27
|
Actual
|
Hickenlooper
|
39
|
Schultz
|
11
|
Ryan
|
22
|
Weld
|
27
|
If you’re color-blind and the blue highlighting causes trouble for you reading the chart, let me know and I won’t do that again. The four candidates listed above control 8% of the Support, and predictions for the poll were 81% accurate. Since yesterday’s report, John (Higgledy) Hickenlooper is up 12 points as a result of the poll, and Bernie Sanders is up 39 points as a result of the removal of an old poll, while Howard (Coffee Man) Schultz is down 14 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Cory Booker is down 24 as a result of an old poll.
Tim Ryan, although not marked in green and not up 10 points (1/10th of one percent) since yesterday, continues to crawl forward through the list. Since reaching a low of 80 (8/10th of one percent) on June 27, he has hit 82, 88, 96, 97, 98, 99, 102, 103, 105, 108, 117, 120, 124, 134, 136, 138, 139, 140, 148 and now, as of today, based on his slight overachievement in yesterday’s poll, 152. It looks like he won’t make the next debate, and it will be interesting to see whether that stops him or does not. I wouldn’t pre-judge the issue. It is likely that some candidates will drop out when they don’t make the next debate, and, based on what I have seen so far, people are not ready to embrace any of the leaders, so the support when someone else drops out could go to Ryan or Bullock or Gabbard or someone else who isn’t on the stage to make an ass of himself. Or herself.
As you may recall if you read these reports, I am now removing two old polls a day, gradually cutting down the number of relevant polls from 50 to 40. We’re now at 47. These are the current Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1881
|
2
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
976
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
966
|
4
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
773
|
5
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
500
|
6
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
489
|
7
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
461
|
8
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
424
|
9
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
421
|
10
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
375
|
11
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
350
|
12
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
275
|
13
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
269
|
14
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
258
|
15
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
229
|
16
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
226
|
17
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
217
|
18
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
152
|
19
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
149
|
20
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
144
|
21
|
John
|
Delaney
|
112
|
22
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
110
|
23
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
99
|
24
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
87
|
25
|
Tom
|
Steyer
|
56
|
While there are quite significant differences between my polling and the Old Fogey polls, there is a strong degree of agreement in one respect. At the moment there are nine Democrats who have qualified for the next round of debates, and these are the nine highest-rated candidates in my polling, with one exception. Beto O’Rourke has qualified for the next debate although, in my polls, he has fallen behind numerous other candidates; yesterday’s victory for John Hickenlooper puts Hickenlooper ahead of O’Rourke with my audience. Otherwise, though, the eight candidates who have qualified for the Debate Stage are the eight strongest Democrats, and the next man who is likely to qualify for the debate, Julian Castro, is the next-strongest candidate.
Thank you all for reading.