Where Have They Gone?
Where have all the errors gone,
Long time passing?
Where have all the sac bunts gone,
Long time ago?
Where have the complete games gone?
Gone to bullpens, every one.
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?
My apologies to Pete Seeger for butchering his lyrics. And, while we’re at it, might as well apologize to Bob Seger, and Corey & Kyle Seager, too, just to be safe.
Before we leave the music part of the article, though, I thought I’d pass along a little something I stumbled across….
"Where Have all the Flowers Gone?" is certainly one of the most iconic folk songs ever recorded. It has been recorded by many famous artists, including The Kingston Trio, Peter Paul & Mary, Bobby Darin, Roy Orbison, Johnny Rivers, Richie Havens, and….Bernie Sanders
Yep, that Bernie Sanders.
In 1987, Sanders, who was the mayor of Burlington, Vermont at the time, recorded and released a folk/spoken word album called "We Shall Overcome". The album cover credits Sanders and "30 Vermont Artists". The tracks included such well-known songs as "Oh Freedom", "This Land is Your Land", "We Shall Overcome", and "Where Have all the Flowers Gone?"
The Wikipedia entry states that "Once word of the project spread among the Vermont music community, musicians began lining up to be part of it. The studio sessions were reminiscent of the Michael Jackson - Lionel Richie recording, We Are the World."
Say what?
Let’s see…….instead of Michael Jackson, Stevie Wonder, Bruce Springsteen, Tina Turner, Bob Dylan, and Ray Charles, Bernie was accompanied by the likes of Howard Mitchell, Ginny Peck, Emily Wadhams, David Weaver and Steve Rainville. I suppose those were big names in the Vermont music scene in the ‘80’s, but I think that’s getting a little loose with the term "reminiscent". Unless, of course, you’re the kind of person who considers Rosanne Barr’s version of "The Star Spangled Banner" to be "reminiscent" of Whitney Houston’s……
Moving on….
Extreme Seasons
As you are probably aware, in 2016 strikeouts established a new record, with the average team striking out just over 8 times a game (8.03). This broke the previous high of 7.71 in 2015, which in turn broke the mark set in 2014 (7.70), and so on. In fact, this was the 9th consecutive season we have seen a new high set for strikeouts per game. Strikeouts per game have been steadily increasing for the last few decades.
Average team strikeouts per game, by decade:
Decade
|
Team K’s per Game
|
1900's
|
3.55
|
1910's
|
3.65
|
1920's
|
2.81
|
1930's
|
3.32
|
1940's
|
3.55
|
1950's
|
4.40
|
1960's
|
5.70
|
1970's
|
5.15
|
1980's
|
5.34
|
1990's
|
6.14
|
2000's
|
6.56
|
2010's
|
7.52
|
As you can see, strikeouts, after dipping a bit in the ‘70’s, have been steadily increasing for the past 40 years.
In addition, you are probably also aware that, even though strikeouts are at an all-time high, 2016 also had a near-record # of home runs, just missing the mark set in 2000.
Seasons with the highest average # of home runs per team per game:
Year
|
HR
|
2000
|
1.17
|
2016
|
1.16
|
1999
|
1.14
|
2001
|
1.12
|
2004
|
1.12
|
2006
|
1.11
|
1996
|
1.09
|
2003
|
1.07
|
1987
|
1.06
|
2009
|
1.04
|
So, 2016 ended up as the 2nd highest HR/game season of all time. It’s received a fair amount of attention for that, but it seems different in many ways than some of the other seasons listed, in part because no individual player posted an unusually high total. The MLB HR leader was Mark Trumbo of Baltimore with 47, a good but hardly an overwhelming total. No 73 HR for Bonds, no 70 or 65 for McGwire, no 3 seasons of 60 for Sosa. Not even a single 50. So, in 2016, we saw a high # of HR’s in total, but with a lack of individuals who posted unusually high totals.
Here’s an interesting fact…..in 2016, there were 111 players hitting 20 or more HR’s, which is the highest figure ever. That seems to be one of the keys for this year….no ridiculously high totals for any individual hitter, but with a lot more batters achieving solid totals.
Top 10 seasons with players hitting 20 or more HR’s:
Year
|
# Players with 20+ HR
|
2016
|
111
|
1999
|
103
|
2000
|
102
|
2004
|
93
|
2008
|
92
|
2006
|
91
|
2001
|
90
|
2009
|
87
|
2007
|
86
|
2003
|
86
|
So, in 2016, we had some exceptionally high figures in both K’s and HR’s. However, we also saw some exceptionally low results as well, as we had very low instances of sacrifice bunts, intentional walks, complete games, and errors. So, that got me to wondering about "extreme" seasons, seasons where we see categories on one end of the spectrum or the other.
Was 2016 an extreme season? Certainly in some categories, it was. But how could we measure that, and how does it compare to other seasons? What makes an "extreme" season? Does one or two extremes qualify…or does it need to be a season with numerous categories of extremes? I thought I’d take a crack at analyzing it.
Approach
I thought about going all the way to the first season for which we have stats, 1871. Talk about "extreme"….teams averaging 10.5 runs per game, teams averaging around 8 errors a game. Yeah, that’s certainly extreme. However, a lot of things were quite different then, so I decided not to go back that far.
The "Dead Ball Era" of the 1900's and the 1910's? Sure, those were extreme years as well. Few HR’s, lots of errors, lots of complete games, low batting averages, few runs scored. The game being played in the Dead Ball Era was certainly "extreme" compared to today, but none of us (well, very few, anyway) that are alive today personally witnessed those years.
Ultimately, I decided I was more interested in how some of the basic indicators of the game have changed in our lifetimes. My baseball experience dates back to the late 60’s, but I thought I’d go back a little further than that.
For a fan who’s 70 years old (born in 1946), I figure that that person’s earliest memories might be from the mid-1950’s. That seemed like a decent place to start. In addition, one of the categories I was interested in was Intentional Base on Balls (IBB), and that has been tracked since 1955. So, although I certainly could have gone back further, I decided to use 1955 as my beginning point, giving us 62 seasons to evaluate.
What I wanted to evaluate was how seasons have changed over time. I wanted to compare, at a basic level, what a game in the 50’s was like vs. what a game today is like in terms of how often you tend to see certain things occur. What did you see "a lot" in the 50’s when watching a ball game? What did you tend not to see? How about today? How have some of the basic events changed in their frequency? And, what seasons tended to be extreme, and which ones tended to be more in the middle?
I decided to take a look at several basic categories, measured in average occurrence per team per game (except for batting average and OBP). The ones I decided on were:
Runs
Doubles
Triples
Home Runs
Stolen Bases
Walks
Intentional Base on Balls
Strikeouts
Batting Average
On Base Percentage
Sacrifice Bunts
Complete Games
Errors
Double Plays
For every season between 1955 and 2016, I ranked each season in each of those 14 basic categories, from high to low. That gives us 62 figures for each category.
If a season had the "best" figure in a category, it was ranked as "1". The lowest, "62". "Best", for most of these categories, meant having the highest figure, with 2 exceptions: errors and intentional walks (IBB), since those are really both defensive-based categories. I considered the lowest error/game figure to be the best, so that would get a rank of "1". Same for IBB.
Although, really, in this approach, the direction being measured doesn’t matter a whole lot, because of the next step. I took each season’s distance from the midpoint as a measure of how extreme it was. In other words, finishing first or last in a category was equally extreme. For example, the highest HR/game figure in the time frame was 1.17 in 2000, while the lowest was .58 in 1976. In the context of the study, those were both considered to be equally "extreme"….they were just on different ends of the spectrum.
So, a rank of 1 and a rank of 62 were equally extreme. To get distance from the middle, I took the absolute value of 31.5 minus the rank. So, in this case, the year 2000 had a "score" of 30.5 (31.5 minus 1) for HR’s, and 1976 also had a score of 30.5 (absolute value of 31.5 minus 62). So, the 2 years were equally extreme in that category. The higher the "score", the more extreme.
For example, here’s how the year 2000 looks in table form, with the raw data being expressed in #/team/game (except for batting average and OBP, which are just their normal expressions):
Category
|
Raw Data (#/Game)
|
Rank
|
Extreme Score (distance from middle)
|
R
|
5.14
|
1
|
30.5
|
2B
|
1.83
|
5
|
26.5
|
3B
|
0.20
|
36
|
4.5
|
HR
|
1.17
|
1
|
30.5
|
SB
|
0.60
|
32
|
0.5
|
BB
|
3.75
|
1
|
30.5
|
IBB (Fewest)
|
0.25
|
9
|
22.5
|
K
|
6.45
|
18
|
13.5
|
BA
|
.270
|
2
|
29.5
|
OBP
|
.345
|
1
|
30.5
|
SH
|
0.34
|
44
|
12.5
|
CG
|
0.05
|
45
|
13.5
|
E (Fewest)
|
0.71
|
17
|
14.5
|
DP
|
0.97
|
9
|
22.5
|
So, 2000 was very extreme in terms of runs, home runs, walks, batting average, and OBP. On the flip side, it was middle of the road in stolen bases (ranked 32 out of 62, just about right in the middle), and triples.
If you average the 14 figures, it comes out to a figure of 20.14. Among seasons since 1955, it’s a pretty extreme season….but not the most extreme. It is among the top 10, however.
Results
Hopefully, that approach makes sense. It treats all 14 categories equally, and tries to measure each season by how far from the middle it is across that spectrum of categories.
OK….enough talking. let’s cut to the chase. Here is the list of seasons sorted from most extreme to the least extreme since 1955:
Year
|
"Extreme Season Number" (XSN)
|
1968
|
22.86
|
1967
|
22.00
|
2014
|
21.93
|
1999
|
21.00
|
1955
|
20.93
|
1956
|
20.86
|
2016
|
20.64
|
2015
|
20.57
|
2013
|
20.29
|
2000
|
20.14
|
1963
|
19.86
|
2007
|
19.29
|
1972
|
18.86
|
1976
|
18.57
|
1966
|
18.14
|
1965
|
18.14
|
2012
|
18.07
|
1971
|
17.93
|
1996
|
17.86
|
2008
|
17.64
|
1961
|
17.64
|
2006
|
17.36
|
2004
|
17.14
|
1998
|
16.93
|
1997
|
16.86
|
2005
|
16.64
|
1975
|
16.57
|
1964
|
16.43
|
2011
|
16.36
|
2009
|
16.07
|
1980
|
16.07
|
2001
|
15.93
|
1974
|
15.79
|
2003
|
15.29
|
1995
|
15.21
|
1981
|
15.14
|
1969
|
15.00
|
1960
|
14.86
|
1962
|
14.71
|
1994
|
14.29
|
1978
|
14.29
|
1958
|
14.21
|
2010
|
13.93
|
1957
|
13.93
|
1979
|
13.86
|
1959
|
13.64
|
1973
|
13.07
|
2002
|
12.86
|
1970
|
12.14
|
1988
|
12.14
|
1987
|
11.36
|
1989
|
11.29
|
1983
|
10.86
|
1977
|
10.57
|
1992
|
9.57
|
1984
|
8.86
|
1993
|
8.43
|
1990
|
8.21
|
1982
|
7.93
|
1991
|
7.79
|
1985
|
6.93
|
1986
|
6.57
|
Now, I realize those numbers by themselves don’t mean a whole lot without digging in. So, let’s look a couple up close:
1968 – "The Year of the Pitcher"
Here’s 1968 in table form:
Category
|
Raw Data
|
Rank
|
Extreme Score
|
R
|
3.42
|
62
|
30.5
|
2B
|
1.19
|
62
|
30.5
|
3B
|
0.21
|
29
|
2.5
|
HR
|
0.61
|
61
|
29.5
|
SB
|
0.47
|
48
|
16.5
|
BB
|
2.82
|
62
|
30.5
|
IBB (Fewest)
|
0.38
|
60
|
28.5
|
K
|
5.89
|
28
|
3.5
|
BA
|
.237
|
62
|
30.5
|
OBP
|
.299
|
62
|
30.5
|
SH
|
0.46
|
7
|
24.5
|
CG
|
0.28
|
6
|
25.5
|
E (Fewest)
|
0.85
|
40
|
8.5
|
DP
|
0.87
|
60
|
28.5
|
Total Score
|
|
|
22.86
|
In a result that may not surprise many of you, 1968 ranks by this method as the most extreme season since 1955. It is, after all, still known as "The Year of the Pitcher" (although some people also tried to hang that same label on 2010).
In 1968, runs/game ranked last in the study, doubles were at the bottom, as were walks, batting average and OBP. HR/game were the 2nd-lowest, DP/game were at the 3rd-lowest, and even IBB were extreme (since I measured IBB as "fewest", the rank of 60 actually meant that they were the 3rd "highest" in the study. In other words, even though walks were low, there were a lot of intentional walks being issued that year).
So, most of those ranks were extremely low. On the high side, there were a lot of sac bunts (ranked 7th among the seasons) and complete games (ranked 6th). Basically, 10 of the 14 categories registered as fairly extreme. The only categories that were relatively ordinary were triples, strikeouts, and errors.
Again, not a surprise. I suspect that many of you, if you had to think of an extreme season off the top of your head, might very well select 1968. It was quite a year.
1968 was, in many ways, the polar opposite of 2000, which we looked at earlier. Compare the two years side-by-side. For the most part, where 2000 was high, 1968 was low:
Category
|
2000 Figure
|
2000
Rank
|
|
1968 Figure
|
1968
Rank
|
R
|
5.14
|
1
|
|
3.42
|
62
|
2B
|
1.83
|
5
|
|
1.19
|
62
|
3B
|
0.20
|
36
|
|
0.21
|
29
|
HR
|
1.17
|
1
|
|
0.61
|
61
|
SB
|
0.60
|
32
|
|
0.47
|
48
|
BB
|
3.75
|
1
|
|
2.82
|
62
|
IBB (Fewest)
|
0.25
|
9
|
|
0.38
|
60
|
K
|
6.45
|
18
|
|
5.89
|
28
|
BA
|
.270
|
2
|
|
.237
|
62
|
OBP
|
.345
|
1
|
|
.299
|
62
|
SH
|
0.34
|
44
|
|
0.46
|
7
|
CG
|
0.05
|
45
|
|
0.28
|
6
|
E (Fewest)
|
0.71
|
17
|
|
0.85
|
40
|
DP
|
0.97
|
9
|
|
0.87
|
60
|
The only categories that were at least somewhat close to each other on the scales were triples, strikeouts, and stolen bases. In most other categories, they were on opposite ends of the spectrum.
1986
If 1968 was the most extreme of the last 6 decades, what about the least extreme? Invert the 6 and the 8, and you get 1986:
Category
|
Raw Data
|
Rank
|
Extreme Score
|
R
|
4.41
|
26
|
5.5
|
2B
|
1.55
|
27
|
4.5
|
3B
|
0.20
|
36
|
4.5
|
HR
|
0.91
|
27
|
4.5
|
SB
|
0.79
|
2
|
29.5
|
BB
|
3.38
|
16
|
15.5
|
IBB (Fewest)
|
0.31
|
34
|
2.5
|
K
|
5.87
|
29
|
2.5
|
BA
|
.258
|
26
|
5.5
|
OBP
|
.326
|
25
|
6.5
|
SH
|
0.36
|
39
|
7.5
|
CG
|
0.14
|
33
|
1.5
|
E (Fewest)
|
0.82
|
33
|
1.5
|
DP
|
0.93
|
31
|
0.5
|
Total Score
|
|
|
6.57
|
1986 really didn’t have any "signature" category, other than stolen bases, which were the 2nd highest in the data (1986 had Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson, Eric Davis, and Tim Raines all stealing between 70 and 107 bases) . Basically everything else was middle-of-the-pack, with virtually all categories ranked in the 20’s and 30’s.
It wasn’t alone, either. Of the bottom 10 seasons on the "extreme" list, 5 were in the 1980’s, and 4 were in the 1990’s. That result did make me wonder if perhaps there was a bias in the data, in that some categories have had consistent directional trends over this time span, and the 1980’s and 1990’s, which would be essentially in the middle of the time spectrum I looked at, would naturally end up in the middle. That led to this next section.
Trends
I thought it would be interesting to see how the various categories have been trending over the past 62 years. I decided to look by decade, as well as looking at high and low marks during this time frame.
Runs/Game
Runs have meandered a bit this time frame, dipping in the ‘60’s, increasing over the next 4 decades, but then taking a step back in the current decade.
High: 2000 – 5.14
Low: 1968 - 3.42
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
4.38
|
1960's
|
4.05
|
1970's
|
4.15
|
1980's
|
4.29
|
1990's
|
4.67
|
2000's
|
4.76
|
2010's
|
4.28
|
Overall
|
4.37
|
Doubles
Double have had a similar pattern as runs since the ‘50’s – a dip in the ‘60’s, then increasing over the next 4 decades, then dipping back down again, although they remain relatively high.
High: 2007 – 1.89
Low: 1968 - 1.19
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
1.36
|
1960's
|
1.30
|
1970's
|
1.38
|
1980's
|
1.52
|
1990's
|
1.69
|
2000's
|
1.83
|
2010's
|
1.71
|
Overall
|
1.55
|
Triples
Triples have been steadily becoming more and more rare.
High: 1956 – 0.29
Low: 2013 - 0.16
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.27
|
1960's
|
0.24
|
1970's
|
0.23
|
1980's
|
0.23
|
1990's
|
0.20
|
2000's
|
0.19
|
2010's
|
0.18
|
Overall
|
0.22
|
Home Runs
Home runs dipped for 2 decades after the 50’s, then started increasing over the next 3 decades before coming back down some again, but they remain relatively high.
High: 2000 – 1.17
Low: 1976 - 0.58
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.91
|
1960's
|
0.82
|
1970's
|
0.75
|
1980's
|
0.80
|
1990's
|
0.95
|
2000's
|
1.07
|
2010's
|
0.99
|
Overall
|
0.89
|
Stolen Bases
Stolen bases were quite low in the 50’s, but climbed steadily over the next 4 decades before coming back down some over the last 20 years.
High: 1987 – 0.85
Low: 1955 - 0.28
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.30
|
1960's
|
0.42
|
1970's
|
0.62
|
1980's
|
0.77
|
1990's
|
0.73
|
2000's
|
0.58
|
2010's
|
0.59
|
Overall
|
0.59
|
Walks
Walks have meandered a bit over this time frame…down, up, down, up, down, down, and at the moment they’re relatively low.
High: 2000 – 3.75
Low: 1968 - 2.82
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
3.44
|
1960's
|
3.14
|
1970's
|
3.30
|
1980's
|
3.22
|
1990's
|
3.43
|
2000's
|
3.34
|
2010's
|
3.04
|
Overall
|
3.27
|
Intentional Base on Balls
The use of the intentional walk became more popular over the first couple of decades it was tracked. Since the 1970’s, however, it’s been on the decline, and with each passing year is getting used a little bit less. In 2016, the intentional walk was used less frequently than it ever has been since it they started tracking its usage.
High: 1967 – 0.40
Low: 2016 - 0.19
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.29
|
1960's
|
0.32
|
1970's
|
0.34
|
1980's
|
0.32
|
1990's
|
0.29
|
2000's
|
0.27
|
2010's
|
0.22
|
Overall
|
0.30
|
Strikeouts
As mentioned before, strikeouts have generally been on the increase over the past several decades, and 2016 marked the 9th consecutive season that a new high mark was realized. In 2016, strikeouts per game was 83% higher than it was in 1955.
High: 2016 – 8.03
Low: 1955 - 4.39
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
4.78
|
1960's
|
5.70
|
1970's
|
5.15
|
1980's
|
5.34
|
1990's
|
6.14
|
2000's
|
6.56
|
2010's
|
7.52
|
Overall
|
5.89
|
Batting Average
Batting average has seen a couple of different trends over this time span. It dipped in the ‘60’s, then increased over the next 4 decades, but has since retreated to its lowest figure since the ‘60’s.
High: 1999 – .271
Low: 1968 - .237
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
.258
|
1960's
|
.249
|
1970's
|
.256
|
1980's
|
.259
|
1990's
|
.265
|
2000's
|
.265
|
2010's
|
.254
|
Overall
|
.258
|
On Base Percentage
OBP reflects the same pattern as batting average, and in the current decade is down to its lowest levels since the ‘60’s.
High: 1999 – .345
Low: 1968 - .299
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
.327
|
1960's
|
.315
|
1970's
|
.323
|
1980's
|
.324
|
1990's
|
.334
|
2000's
|
.335
|
2010's
|
.319
|
Overall
|
.325
|
Sacrifice Bunts
Sacrifice bunts have steadily been on the decline, and reached a new low in 2016. From 1956 to 2016, we have seen a 60% decrease.
High: 1956 – 0.51
Low: 2016 - 0.21
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.46
|
1960's
|
0.45
|
1970's
|
0.45
|
1980's
|
0.39
|
1990's
|
0.37
|
2000's
|
0.33
|
2010's
|
0.28
|
Overall
|
0.39
|
Complete Games
Complete games have gone the way of the dodo.
- In 1956, an average major league team had nearly 50 complete games. Robin Roberts led with 22.
- In 2016, an average major league team had 3 complete games, with no team having more than 10 (San Francisco).
High: 1956 – 0.31
Low: 2016 - 0.02
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.30
|
1960's
|
0.25
|
1970's
|
0.26
|
1980's
|
0.16
|
1990's
|
0.08
|
2000's
|
0.04
|
2010's
|
0.03
|
Overall
|
0.15
|
Errors
Errors held pretty steady through the ‘70’s, but have been dropping ever since.
High: 1975 – 0.96
Low: 2013 - 0.56
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
0.88
|
1960's
|
0.88
|
1970's
|
0.88
|
1980's
|
0.82
|
1990's
|
0.73
|
2000's
|
0.64
|
2010's
|
0.60
|
Overall
|
0.78
|
Double Plays
Double plays fell off from their 1950’s level, and stayed pretty steady from the ‘70’s through the 2000’s, but have dropped off some in the current decade.
High: 1958 – 1.05
Low: 2014 - 0.87
Decade
|
Average
|
1950's
|
1.01
|
1960's
|
0.92
|
1970's
|
0.95
|
1980's
|
0.94
|
1990's
|
0.93
|
2000's
|
0.94
|
2010's
|
0.89
|
Overall
|
0.94
|
Wrapping it Up
In conclusion, 2016 does rate as a fairly extreme season, the 7th most extreme since 1955 by this method. Here’s 2016 in table form:
Category
|
Raw Data
|
Rank
|
Extreme Score
|
R
|
4.49
|
20
|
11.5
|
2B
|
1.70
|
19
|
12.5
|
3B
|
0.18
|
54
|
22.5
|
HR
|
1.16
|
2
|
29.5
|
SB
|
0.52
|
42
|
10.5
|
BB
|
3.11
|
50
|
18.5
|
IBB (Fewest)
|
0.19
|
1
|
30.5
|
K
|
8.03
|
1
|
30.5
|
BA
|
.256
|
40
|
8.5
|
OBP
|
.322
|
43
|
11.5
|
SH
|
0.21
|
62
|
30.5
|
CG
|
0.02
|
59
|
27.5
|
E (Fewest)
|
0.59
|
3
|
28.5
|
DP
|
0.90
|
48
|
16.5
|
|
|
|
20.64
|
Some of it was attributable to the dramatic increase in HR’s that we saw this year, and some of it was attributable to the ongoing trends of increasing strikeouts as well as generally decreasing numbers of complete games, errors, sacrifice bunts, and intentional walks that have been in motion for many years. On the other hand, in terms of runs, batting average, OBP, doubles, and steals, 2016 was kind of middle-of-the road.
So, regarding the experience of watching a typical game in 2016? You’re bound to see lots of strikeouts and lots of home runs. However, since walks and OBP are relatively low, the high number of home runs doesn’t necessarily translate into a lot of runs. Strategies such as sac bunts and intentional walks are being used less often than ever before. And if you’re hoping to see a complete game pitched by your favorite team….well, good luck!
Thanks for reading,
Dan