All About "Lefties"
I’m intrigued by lefties. I’m sure part of it is related to their relative scarceness. Only about 10% of the U.S. population is left-handed.
U.S. presidents have slightly exceeded that rate, as 6 of the 44 men (14%) who have held the highest office have been left-handed (I’m only counting Grover Cleveland once). We’ve had a run on them in recent years, as 5 of the last 8 (Obama, Clinton, Bush (the elder), Reagan, and Ford) were all left-handed (Truman was the other). It’s interesting that half the lefties have actually been "righties" on the political spectrum.
In baseball, lefties appear more frequently than they do in the general population. In 2018, about 25% of pitchers threw left handed. About 12% of non-pitchers threw left-handed, which, when you think about it, is actually a pretty decent percentage when you consider that 4 of the fielding positions (second base, shortstop, third base, and catcher), for all intents and purposes, don’t produce any left-handers.
Quick sidebar….who are the most recent left-handers to appear at those 4 positions in the Major Leagues? Here’s what I found:
· Catcher – Benny Distefano – 1989
· Second Base – Anthony Rizzo – 2018 (he also did it in 2017 and 2016)
· Third Base – Anthony Rizzo – 2017
· Shortstop – Nino Escalera – 1954
Now, of course, most of this is either pure quirkiness or represents token appearances for a variety of reasons. Rizzo has had several games where he gets counted as "playing" second base because of how he’s positioned on certain bunt plays. There’s a rule that states that, when he’s further away from first base than another player (in this case, the second baseman), he’s not allowed to wear his first baseman’s mitt, and he gets designated as the second baseman.
Other notable left-handers with ten or more games at these positions (not an exhaustive list, but just some of the more recognizable names)?
- Catcher – Fred Tenney, Jiggs Donahue, Jack Clements
- Second Base – Anthony Rizzo (again, due to the quirkiness of the rule), Hal Chase, Willie Keeler, Roger Connor
- Third Base – Mike Squires, Willie Keeler, Roger Connor
- Shortstop – Jimmy Ryan, George Van Haltren
As you might have guessed, it was a much more common occurrence in the early years of baseball than it has been in more recent decades.
Lefty as a Nickname
"Lefty" appears to be the most common nickname in baseball history. There’s a page on baseball-reference.com that lists players and nicknames, and I did a quick tally of the results. Here are the most common nicknames according to that source:
Nickname
|
Total
|
Lefty
|
126
|
Red
|
48
|
Dutch
|
32
|
Doc
|
27
|
Buck
|
19
|
Moose
|
17
|
Whitey
|
15
|
Big Bill
|
15
|
Big Ed
|
12
|
Sheriff
|
11
|
Pete
|
11
|
Jumbo
|
11
|
Jack
|
11
|
Chief
|
11
|
Bull
|
11
|
Wild Bill
|
10
|
However…..there’s a bit of a caveat to this. In looking at the results, I noticed that some of the more well-known "Lefty"s, such as Lefty Grove, Lefty Gomez, Lefty O’Doul, etc., are not included in those results because the site considers "Lefty" to be part of their baseball common names rather than designated as a "nickname". So, the actual count of "Lefty"s is much higher than 126. Of course, the same is true of the other names (for example, Red Ruffing, Red Rolfe, Red Faber, and Red Ames are not included in the "Red"s). So, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt.
I did a separate query on the site by specifically plugging in "Lefty" into the player name search, which pulls in both cases….those with "Lefty" in the player’s "baseball name", and also if it appears in the "nickname". The result? It’s actually a whopping 181 Major League players!
I was curious about how those names were distributed over time. Here they are, grouped by the decade of the last year that the player appeared in the Majors:
Decade
|
Total
|
1870s
|
1
|
1890s
|
6
|
1900s
|
8
|
1910s
|
26
|
1920s
|
47
|
1930s
|
37
|
1940s
|
36
|
1950s
|
16
|
1960s
|
2
|
1970s
|
1
|
1980s
|
1
|
Total
|
181
|
So, the nickname really started to catch on in the 1910’s, and was very common for about 40-50 years, and then basically started to fade away pretty quickly after that. The player from the 1980’s, by the way, was Steve Carlton. "Lefty" appears to have ended with him, and we haven’t had any "Lefty"s in the last 30 years.
In addition, the site lists an additional 82 minor league "Leftys", plus another 12 from the Negro Leagues. Also, one manager (Lefty Phillips).
I did not attempt to tally by position, but just in eyeballing them, the overwhelming majority, as you might have guessed, were pitchers.
For those of you keeping track…..there have been zero players nicknamed "Righty".
Southpaw Starters
Sandy Koufax. Lefty Grove. Randy Johnson. Warren Spahn. Steve Carlton. "King Carl" Hubbell. Many of the top left-handed pitchers represent true baseball royalty.
In total, 15 left-handed hurlers are in the Hall of Fame (not counting players like Babe Ruth, George Sisler, and Jesse Burkett who were primarily elected as position players). Here are the 15, listed in descending order by rWAR:
Rk
|
Player
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
1
|
Lefty Grove
|
112.5
|
300
|
141
|
3.06
|
2
|
Randy Johnson
|
103.6
|
303
|
166
|
3.29
|
3
|
Warren Spahn
|
92.6
|
363
|
245
|
3.09
|
4
|
Eddie Plank
|
88.2
|
326
|
194
|
2.35
|
5
|
Steve Carlton
|
84.4
|
329
|
244
|
3.22
|
6
|
Tom Glavine
|
74.1
|
305
|
203
|
3.54
|
7
|
Carl Hubbell
|
68.7
|
253
|
154
|
2.98
|
8
|
Rube Waddell
|
60.8
|
193
|
143
|
2.16
|
9
|
Hal Newhouser
|
60.7
|
207
|
150
|
3.06
|
10
|
Eppa Rixey
|
56.8
|
266
|
251
|
3.15
|
11
|
Whitey Ford
|
53.5
|
236
|
106
|
2.75
|
12
|
Sandy Koufax
|
53.2
|
165
|
87
|
2.76
|
13
|
Herb Pennock
|
43.9
|
241
|
162
|
3.6
|
14
|
Lefty Gomez
|
43.1
|
189
|
102
|
3.34
|
15
|
Rube Marquard
|
34.4
|
201
|
177
|
3.08
|
One thing I find interesting is that the Hall of Fame lefties have been concentrated onto a few teams. The A’s have 3 of the 15 (Grove, Plank, Waddell), the Yankees have 3 (Ford, Pennock, Gomez), the Giants have 2 (Hubbell and Marquard), and the Braves have 2 (Spahn and Glavine). The remaining lefties are sprinkled among the Diamondbacks (Johnson, who I would consider more as a Diamondback than a Mariner even though he played more seasons with Seattle), Phillies (Carlton), Tigers (Newhouser), Reds (Rixey), and Dodgers (Koufax).
Among the leading candidates who might eventually go into the Hall, you see many of the same teams repeated: there is Clayton Kershaw (another Dodger), C.C. Sabathia (Yankees, although he’s pretty evenly split between New York and Cleveland), Andy Pettitte (Yankees) and Tommy John (who would probably go in as either a Yankee or a Dodger). Maybe Jim Kaat (mostly Twins) will go in at some point. I think Kershaw’s the best bet of this group to make the Hall, but I certainly wouldn’t be too surprised by any of the others.
What is one thing that all of the lefty Hall of Fame pitchers have in common? They were all starting pitchers. Well, to be more specific, they were all primarily starting pitchers. Grove and Hubbell, for example, each had over 100 games in relief, and each lead the league (retroactively) in saves once, as that was not an uncommon usage of star pitchers in that general era. In fact, both Grove and Hubbell had seasons in which they led the league in both ERA and saves, and Hubbell also led in complete games that same season. How many pitchers have been able to lead in all 3 of those in the same season? I’m not sure of the answer. I know Ed Walsh accomplished it once. I suspect there may be a few others.
Some of the other Hall of Fame lefties accumulated a significant number of relief appearances as well. However, any reasonable person would consider all 15 to be "starting pitchers". You just don’t see that many dominant, career lefty relievers.
Which brings us to the main segment of the article…..
Portsiders in the Pen
The only Hall of Fame pitchers classified primarily as relievers are Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Dennis Eckersley, and Trevor Hoffman, although Mariano Rivera is a lock to join their ranks next year. There are no left-handed relievers in the Hall.
The best lefty reliever candidate to date has been Billy Wagner, who has been on the ballot 3 times and has received 10-11% of the vote each time. He has a good case, but it’s difficult to see him gaining enough support to be elected by the writers.
Is Wagner the greatest lefty reliever of all time? Probably. Let’s examine the field.
I did a pull of left-handed pitchers from baseball-reference.com in which I only pulled in their stats while appearing as a reliever. I pulled in the top 300 based on relief games. So, for example, while Bruce Chen (who was #300 in the list) appeared in 400 games as a Major Leaguer, he only had 173 as a reliever, with the other 227 coming as a starting pitcher. Only his stats as a reliever in those 173 games are included in the analysis to follow.
Here are a few lefty leaders in different categories among those 300 pitchers (* indicates active):
Lefty Relief Games:
Player
|
G
|
Jesse Orosco
|
1,248
|
Mike Stanton
|
1,177
|
John Franco
|
1,119
|
Dan Plesac
|
1,050
|
Sparky Lyle
|
899
|
Paul Assenmacher
|
883
|
Eddie Guardado
|
883
|
Mike Myers
|
883
|
Alan Embree
|
878
|
Billy Wagner
|
853
|
Lefty Relief Innings Pitched:
Player
|
IP
|
Sparky Lyle
|
1,390
|
Tug McGraw
|
1,301
|
Jesse Orosco
|
1,277
|
Tom Burgmeier
|
1,248
|
John Franco
|
1,245
|
Ron Perranoski
|
1,170
|
Mike Stanton
|
1,110
|
Gary Lavelle
|
1,077
|
Darold Knowles
|
1,052
|
Paul Lindblad
|
1,045
|
Lefty Saves:
Player
|
Saves
|
John Franco
|
424
|
Billy Wagner
|
422
|
Randy Myers
|
347
|
Dave Righetti
|
252
|
Sparky Lyle
|
238
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
236
|
Brian Fuentes
|
204
|
Mitch Williams
|
192
|
Eddie Guardado
|
187
|
Tug McGraw
|
180
|
Note – Franco, Wagner, and Myers are in the top 12 on the all-time Saves list, but then you don’t see another lefty until Righetti at #36. In all, only 17 of the top 100 on the Saves list are left-handed.
ERA among lefty relievers
Player
|
ERA
|
IP as Reliever
|
Zach Britton*
|
1.79
|
291
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
2.24
|
478
|
Jonny Venters*
|
2.25
|
263
|
Billy Wagner
|
2.31
|
903
|
Andrew Miller*
|
2.56
|
400
|
Tony Watson*
|
2.67
|
519
|
Scott Downs
|
2.68
|
504
|
Wilbur Wood
|
2.71
|
565
|
Billy O'Dell
|
2.71
|
498
|
Joe Gibbon
|
2.73
|
412
|
There are several surprising names among the ERA leader group, for 2 basic reasons:
- Several pitchers are still active, and their ERAs are likely to fall by the time their careers end.
- Several of these pitchers’ career records include significant time as a starting pitcher, and they were much more effective in relief, and therefore their overall career records often mask how effective they were in relief.
Britton and Venters are examples of the first type, as they are active and have fewer than 300 innings pitched to date, so it may not be fair to include them.
Downs is a good example of the second type. As a reliever, his ERA was 2.68. As a starting pitcher, it was 5.35.
Miller is much the same way. Although he was a highly regarded prospect, he floundered for years as a starting pitcher with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.4 K/BB ratio. As a reliever, although he’s generally not filled a closer role, he found his groove, with a 2.56 ERA and a 3.9 K/BB ratio.
Gibbon and O’Dell didn’t have nearly as dramatic a split as Downs or Miller, but they were kind of similar to each other– they both were decent starting pitchers, generally mid-to-high 3.00 ERA’s, but posted much lower ERAs out of the pen.
If we were to continue down the ERA list, the next 4 names (all retired) would be:
Player
|
ERA
|
Don Mossi
|
2.77
|
Ron Perranoski
|
2.78
|
John Hiller
|
2.78
|
Jim Brewer
|
2.80
|
Yes! We have a Don Mossi sighting…..
Who has been particularly difficult to hit? Here are the hits/9 IP leaders among the 300 pitchers in the data set:
Player
|
H/9
|
IP
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
4.93
|
478
|
Andrew Miller*
|
5.76
|
400
|
Ryan Buchter*
|
5.89
|
168
|
Billy Wagner
|
5.99
|
903
|
Tom Hall
|
6.18
|
473
|
Sean Doolittle*
|
6.34
|
328
|
Hung-Chih Kuo
|
6.43
|
224
|
Zach Britton*
|
6.43
|
291
|
Brad Hand*
|
6.62
|
307
|
Charlie Furbush
|
6.62
|
201
|
Again, that list is dominated by both active pitchers and pitchers with relatively few innings pitched. If we set a minimum of 400 relief innings pitched, we’d get this list:
Player
|
H/9
|
IP
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
4.93
|
478
|
Andrew Miller*
|
5.76
|
400
|
Billy Wagner
|
5.99
|
903
|
Tom Hall
|
6.18
|
473
|
Mitch Williams
|
6.90
|
681
|
Pete Richert
|
7.00
|
405
|
B.J. Ryan
|
7.12
|
536
|
Tony Sipp*
|
7.20
|
482
|
Damaso Marte
|
7.24
|
503
|
Arthur Rhodes
|
7.25
|
865
|
Now, I know that these are relievers, and relief rate stats are typically more impressive than those of starters. However, it is worth noting that the stingiest pitcher (more than 1,000 innings) is Nolan Ryan, who allowed 6.56 hits per 9 innings. If you lower the threshold down to 400 innings, 2 active pitchers have allowed fewer than 5.0:
Craig Kimbrel – 4.82 in 532 innings
Aroldis Chapman – 4.93 in 478 innings
LOOGYs
As you probably know, LOOGY is an acronym for Left-handed One-Out GuY, indicating lefty pitchers that are primarily brought in to face one or two batters, often in the hopes of obtaining a short-term platoon advantage. While reviewing lefty relievers, I thought I’d take a crack at trying to identify who might be the best relievers that fit this description over the course of their careers.
I used a very simple ranking system across 4 categories that might be characteristic of such a pitcher. I decided to look for pitchers who faced relatively few batters per appearance, were typically not involved in either the decision or saving the game, and were seldom used to finish out a game.
I settled on the following categories:
- Batters faced per game (low batters faced per game = high rank)
- Innings pitched per game (similar to batters faced, but a slightly different metric)
- Wins, losses, plus saves (low sum total of these = high rank)
- % of games finished (low % of games finished = high rank)
I then added total relief games to give some weight to those that had longer careers.
I ranked each of the 300 pitchers across those categories, and then averaged the ranks. Here are the 10 pitchers that scored the "highest" using that system (minimum 300 IP), along with some of their key figures (remembering that we’re looking for pitchers that tended to have low figures in most of these categories).
LOOGY Rank
|
Player
|
G
|
IP
|
Batters Faced (BF)
|
BF/G
|
W
|
L
|
W+L+Sv
|
W+L+ Sv % of Games
|
Games Finished (GF)
|
GF/G
|
1
|
Randy Choate
|
672
|
408
|
1,750
|
2.60
|
16
|
14
|
37
|
5.5%
|
102
|
15%
|
2
|
Javier Lopez
|
839
|
533
|
2,273
|
2.71
|
30
|
17
|
61
|
7.3%
|
163
|
19%
|
3
|
Ray King
|
593
|
411
|
1,747
|
2.95
|
20
|
23
|
45
|
7.6%
|
97
|
16%
|
4
|
Marc Rzepczynski
|
483
|
310
|
1,349
|
2.79
|
8
|
19
|
29
|
6.0%
|
68
|
14%
|
5
|
Mike Myers
|
883
|
541
|
2,385
|
2.70
|
25
|
24
|
63
|
7.1%
|
195
|
22%
|
6
|
Boone Logan
|
635
|
442
|
1,970
|
3.10
|
30
|
23
|
56
|
8.8%
|
104
|
16%
|
7
|
Trever Miller
|
689
|
504
|
2,226
|
3.23
|
18
|
14
|
43
|
6.2%
|
133
|
19%
|
8
|
Tim Byrdak
|
479
|
339
|
1,525
|
3.18
|
13
|
13
|
30
|
6.3%
|
56
|
12%
|
9
|
Luis Avilan
|
399
|
308
|
1,284
|
3.22
|
19
|
10
|
31
|
7.8%
|
48
|
12%
|
10
|
Dennys Reyes
|
633
|
521
|
2,301
|
3.64
|
25
|
18
|
47
|
7.4%
|
120
|
19%
|
I’m pretty happy with those results. In terms of identifying pitchers that would qualify as a LOOGY, I think it’s a pretty good list. I searched for LOOGY references and articles on the internet, and the names that tended to emerge pretty well match the list above, with the possible exception of Jesse Orosco. He’s a bit of a special case…..he was a closer-type early in his career, but became a prominent LOOGY in his later years. John Candelaria would be another example of someone who transformed from another role (in his case, a solid starting pitcher) into a LOOGY-type late in his career.
Cream of the Lefty Crop
OK. So who would be the best career lefty relievers? I came up with another ranking system, this time spanning 10 categories. I tried to have a variety of categories covering a spectrum of potential excellence. Some were compiler-type categories (games, innings pitched), while others were rate categories (K/9, HR % allowed, etc.). Some (like K/9) really favor more recent pitchers as strikeouts have been rising. Others (like IP/G) tend to favor older relievers who tended to stay in the game longer. I was hoping for a decent representation across several decades.
Here are the categories I used:
- Saves
- Innings Pitched
- Innings Pitched per Game
- Strikeouts per 9 innings
- Relief Games
- ERA
- WHIP
- Strikeouts-to-Walk Ratio
- % of Games Finished
- HR Allowed % (HR allowed divided by batters faced)
I ranked each pitcher in each category, and then averaged the rankings. Here are the top 20 lefty relievers using this system, with the numbers in the column indicating where the pitcher ranked among the 300 pitchers in each category (a lower number indicating a higher rank). A lower "average rank" number implies a better/higher rank.
|
Rank in Each Category
|
Player
|
Avg. Rank
|
Saves
|
IP
|
IP/G
|
K/9
|
Games
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
K/W
|
GF%
|
HR %
|
Billy Wagner
|
40.4
|
2
|
15
|
149
|
3
|
10
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
215
|
Aroldis Chapman*
|
41.5
|
6
|
100
|
177
|
1
|
83
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
30
|
Tug McGraw
|
45.6
|
10
|
2
|
33
|
169
|
14
|
19
|
42
|
116
|
11
|
40
|
Jim Brewer
|
54.2
|
18
|
19
|
45
|
128
|
60
|
14
|
19
|
68
|
15
|
156
|
Randy Myers
|
55.1
|
3
|
25
|
130
|
37
|
24
|
61
|
84
|
62
|
3
|
122
|
Sparky Lyle
|
57.3
|
5
|
1
|
50
|
223
|
5
|
21
|
70
|
140
|
9
|
49
|
John Hiller
|
59.3
|
21
|
14
|
17
|
93
|
79
|
12
|
74
|
125
|
8
|
150
|
John Franco
|
61.9
|
1
|
5
|
135
|
149
|
3
|
24
|
118
|
116
|
10
|
58
|
Terry Forster
|
62.6
|
19
|
16
|
53
|
169
|
49
|
24
|
93
|
156
|
39
|
8
|
Gary Lavelle
|
64.4
|
17
|
8
|
65
|
185
|
18
|
19
|
112
|
161
|
43
|
16
|
Zach Britton*
|
65.6
|
16
|
215
|
161
|
53
|
173
|
1
|
5
|
19
|
2
|
11
|
Al Holland
|
67.1
|
38
|
55
|
47
|
119
|
125
|
21
|
22
|
75
|
30
|
139
|
Joe Sambito
|
67.7
|
34
|
52
|
99
|
144
|
98
|
36
|
27
|
43
|
24
|
120
|
Steve Hamilton
|
67.8
|
66
|
65
|
82
|
106
|
111
|
30
|
11
|
39
|
76
|
92
|
Willie Hernandez
|
68.0
|
13
|
12
|
86
|
156
|
21
|
68
|
34
|
63
|
34
|
193
|
Ron Perranoski
|
70.8
|
11
|
6
|
41
|
245
|
20
|
12
|
116
|
231
|
19
|
7
|
Jesse Orosco
|
73.3
|
14
|
3
|
159
|
75
|
1
|
52
|
55
|
104
|
99
|
171
|
Don Mossi
|
74.4
|
60
|
110
|
49
|
191
|
164
|
11
|
13
|
32
|
54
|
60
|
Steve Howe
|
74.8
|
31
|
51
|
117
|
263
|
80
|
38
|
26
|
61
|
50
|
31
|
Dave LaRoche
|
76.1
|
20
|
13
|
52
|
144
|
34
|
83
|
87
|
152
|
23
|
153
|
I think that’s a fair representation of the top lefty relievers of all time. Subjectively, I would probably have included Dave Righetti somewhere in the top 20 (he just missed, at #22), and I would probably have Franco ranked closer to the top, but overall I’m pretty happy.
Others that finished just outside the top 20 include B.J. Ryan, Bill Henry, Andrew Miller, Al Hrabosky, and Dan Plesac.
Some of the lefties that didn’t do real well by this method but who could be considered top 20 material include Brian Fuentes, Mitch Williams, Eddie Guardado, Joe Hoerner, and Darold Knowles. In Fuentes’ case, I don’t think I did enough to compensate for the fact that he pitched most of his career in Colorado. In doing my data pull, I didn’t see a way to bring in ERA+ as part of the "reliever-only" stats, which would have helped him.
Top Lefty Relievers of the Non-Closer Type
One other group I was interested in identifying was the top lefty relievers who were not primarily used in a closer capacity. They had bigger roles than the LOOGYs, but weren’t typically considered the "closer". I used the same categories as above, but limited to pitchers who had saves in fewer than 20% of their relief appearances, and who had fewer than 100 total career saves. 2 of the above group (Hamilton and Mossi) appeared in this group.
Here are the top relievers using this approach:
Player
|
G
|
IP
|
H/9
|
K/9
|
K/BB
|
SV
|
ERA
|
Steve Hamilton
|
404
|
553
|
7.26
|
7.6
|
2.5
|
42
|
2.93
|
Don Mossi
|
295
|
458
|
7.92
|
6.3
|
2.6
|
50
|
2.77
|
Andrew Miller
|
418
|
400
|
5.76
|
13.4
|
3.9
|
53
|
2.56
|
Wilbur Wood
|
354
|
565
|
8.00
|
5.1
|
1.9
|
57
|
2.71
|
Woodie Fryman
|
303
|
451
|
7.36
|
6.3
|
1.8
|
58
|
2.89
|
Bobby Shantz
|
366
|
705
|
7.58
|
6.0
|
1.7
|
48
|
3.20
|
Billy O'Dell
|
280
|
498
|
7.82
|
6.3
|
1.9
|
50
|
2.71
|
Paul Assenmacher
|
883
|
854
|
8.57
|
8.5
|
2.6
|
56
|
3.50
|
Gary Lucas
|
391
|
559
|
8.21
|
5.7
|
1.8
|
63
|
2.89
|
Paul Lindblad
|
623
|
1,045
|
8.22
|
5.0
|
1.8
|
64
|
3.10
|
The Cuban Missle
Billy Wagner comes out as the #1 lefty reliever by the method I used, and I do think that clearly he’s been the best lefty reliever in history. The question now becomes, then, can Aroldis Chapman surpass him?
I think he can.
Here’s how they compare through age 30 (Chapman’s current baseball age):
Players
|
IP
|
ERA
|
G
|
SV
|
H
|
ER
|
BB
|
K
|
WAR
|
K/9
|
K/BB
|
Aroldis Chapman
|
478.2
|
2.24
|
490
|
238
|
262
|
119
|
223
|
798
|
16.0
|
15.0
|
3.6
|
Billy Wagner
|
418.1
|
2.69
|
386
|
181
|
281
|
125
|
168
|
589
|
12.6
|
12.7
|
3.5
|
Chapman’s K/9 advantage is, in part, due to the nature of today’s game. Wagner through age 30 struck out 12.7 per 9 in a game where the average over that time span was about 6.6, while Chapman has been striking out 15.0 per 9 where the average over that time has been about 7.8. If you normalize both of their figures vs. the average for the time frame, they’re nearly identical (about 1.9 times the average). They’re both very impressive figures.
Chapman is about 50 saves ahead of Wagner at the same age, and he should have a lot of baseball ahead of him. Chapman has a pretty good ERA advantage through age 30, but that’s a little misleading as Wagner actually brought his career figure down significantly after age 30, as he ended up with a 2.31 career mark. In his years after turning 30, Wagner had a sparkling 1.99 ERA.
Nevertheless, I think Chapman has a decent shot at surpassing Wagner’s career performance. Chapman has been very consistent. If he continues to average around 35 saves a season, he’s a little over 5 years away from catching both Wagner and Franco in the saves department. Whether he has enough left to get to, say, 500 career saves (which would put him #3 all-time behind Rivera and Hoffman) is questionable.
Will he be able to become the first lefty to get elected to the Hall of Fame? My guess is, probably not. Relievers are one of the trickier positions to evaluate when it comes to Hall of Fame consideration. We had a run of them a while back, but after Rivera is elected, it could be a while before we see any others. Craig Kimbrel probably has the best shot of the active closers. Perhaps Kenley Jansen, too. Closers don’t seem to have the cache that they did a while back. The increasing reliance on metrics such as WAR I think tend to work against relievers, as it’s difficult to post impressive career figures when you pitch as few innings as modern closers do.
Chapman does have a leg up over Wagner in that he does have a championship ring with the Cubs in 2016, and he has generally pitched well in the postseason. Wagner, on the other hand, has a rather disastrous postseason record, which is one of the knocks frequently brought up against him.
Chapman just doesn’t strike me as being on a Hall of Fame track at this point. He’s notorious for the speed of his fastball, of course, and his K/9 rate is amazing, but others like Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are posting similar marks during this strikeout-happy era, which takes a little bit of the luster away.
He’s been very consistent, always seems to be in the mid-to-high 30’s in saves. He’s been outstanding, but I’d have to say Kimbrel has had more "eye-catching" seasons, and that could end up hurting Chapman. Also, there could be some lingering "character" questions related to the incident that led to his suspension a couple of years ago, and I suspect some voters would have some issues with that.
I do think he has an excellent shot at being recognized as the greatest lefty reliever ever. But, ultimately, I’m skeptical about his chances for the Hall.
Thanks for reading,
Dan