Before we start, a couple of quick comments….
First, when I saw that Dave Fleming had posted an article on Jorge Posada, I muttered a brief "oh crap!", because I had some concerns that it might overlap with my article, which is also about a first-time Hall of Fame catcher candidate. As I read it, though, my fears were diminished, and even though there might be a couple of minor points that are common to both, they don’t really tackle the same topic, so I proceeded with finishing and posting my article.
Second, regarding Dave’s announcement regarding discontinuing the Bill James Online Hall of Fame voting….count me among the many who have expressed some sadness over that news. I always enjoyed participating in that annual vote, although of course I understand his decision to discontinue it.
Along those same lines, some of you who have been members for the last couple of years may remember another Hall of Fame-related project we did called "The Hall of Fame Tournament", which was essentially a mockup of an idea Bill wrote about a couple of years ago regarding an alternate Hall of Fame voting method. We performed several runs of it a couple of years ago, and last year we ran through another iteration of it, and we had over 100 members participate in the voting. However, it too has run its course, and I see no reason to keep perpetuating it, so, like Dave, I am discontinuing the "Hall of Fame Tournament" project as well.
On to our regularly scheduled article……
The Pudge Dilemma
You probably have seen the article/contest I posted the other day soliciting predictions for what % of the vote each player on the Hall of Fame ballot will receive. (By the way….the contest remains open through December 12 if you would like to submit an entry). I would say the player whose vote % I feel the least confident about is that of Ivan Rodriguez. I’m not quite sure how the voters will treat him in his debut on the ballot.
On the one hand, I think he’s one of the top 10 Major League catchers ever, and he might even be top 5, although with Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Mickey Cochrane, Carlton Fisk, Bill Dickey, Roy Campanella, Mike Piazza, Gabby Hartnett, and Gary Carter, the competition is pretty stiff at the top…..and it gets even tougher if you include the top consensus Negro League catchers such as Josh Gibson and Biz Mackey.
On face value, he seems to have a slam dunk case for the Hall of Fame. 14-time All-Star, 13 Gold Gloves, an MVP award, a World Series ring. His Hall of Fame Monitor score is a whopping 226, tied with Yogi Berra as the top score for a catcher.
However…..
Rodriguez does have that "cloud of suspicion" hanging around him….the Scarlet "S"…and that muddies the waters when it comes to predicting how much support he’ll receive.
I’m not sure how the voters will pigeonhole him. He’s not a "known" or "admitted" steroid user, as his primary connection to steroids seems to be that Jose Canseco claims to have injected Rodriguez while they were teammates. In addition, when he was asked later about whether or not his name was on the 2003 list of players who tested positive for steroids, he gave a rather weak, noncommittal response. He didn’t exactly seem to deny using them.
The Hall of Fame candidacy of Rodriguez is a little different than others who have had various degrees of connection to steroids. What’s different is that, aside from Roger Clemens, most of the other big names that have come up over the past 10 years with that cloud hanging over them (Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, etc.) have been power hitters, which undoubtedly fed into some level of feeling on the voters’ part that there was some degree of illegitimacy to their numbers.
Rodriguez, on the other hand, was not primarily known for his power (although he had decent pop)….he was known more as a very good offensive catcher and an outstanding defensive one. So, the question is, how will the voters treat him?
Will he tend to reside in the neighborhood of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, two of the all-time most accomplished players at their respective positions, who have been hovering in the 35-50% range?
Will they treat him like outcast sluggers Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, and Rafael Palmeiro, who have tended to get between 5 to 20% of the vote?
Or, will they treat him more along the lines of Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell? Piazza and Bagwell appear to be in a category where, despite some voters openly commenting that they have their "suspicions" about them, were still able to very quickly establish themselves with more than 50% of the vote, and then building from there.
I don’t want to overstate this last effect, because, after all, Piazza did get in last year (on his 4th try), and Bagwell was up to 71.6% last year (his 6th try), and is likely on the brink of entry, so the suspicion certainly hasn’t destroyed their chances….at worst, it may have just delayed them a little, and even that may be subject to debate.
In any case, those seem to be the 3 basic levels we’ve seen so far when it comes to how the voters have treated candidates with that particular "cloud". Honestly, I don’t know where Rodriguez will fall. My gut is that he will tend to follow more of the Piazza/Bagwell path, where he gets a pretty healthy dose of support out of the gate and gets in within a few years, but I really don’t know. That led to this article, and my thoughts on Ivan Rodriguez, and in particular his defensive prowess.
But before I dive into those thoughts, I was reminded of this George Carlin routine in which he prefaced an observation he was about to make regarding New York by first reviewing his personal New York "credentials":
*******
"I want to mention my New York credentials, and they are as follows: I was born on this island, Manhattan Island, therefore I was born in New York City, New York County, and New York State.
City…..county…..state.
And besides that, on top of that, I was born at New York Hospital on East 63rd Street. But here's the capper, something you don't know. You know where I was conceived? Rockaway Beach. Rockaway. That's right. In a hotel on Beach 116th Street called Curley's Hotel. 1936, so if you hear or see anything later from me about New York, you'll know my credentials are in good order."
*******
As I have mentioned numerous times (probably too many), I am a product of Southwest Ohio, deep in the heart of Reds Country. What’s more, my initial exposure to baseball as well the development of my love for this sport perfectly coincides with the emergence of the Big Red Machine. I lived and breathed the Reds.
When I started following baseball in the late 60’s, Johnny Bench had just arrived on the scene, and he famously was given a baseball personally signed by Ted Williams to Bench proclaiming Bench as "A future Hall of Famer". I attended my first game in 1970, the same year that Riverfront Stadium had opened, the same year that the team got off to a blistering 70-30 record after 100 games.
I was spoiled rotten. From 1970 to 1977, the Reds:
- Made the playoffs 5 times
- Reached the World Series 4 times
- Won 2 World Championships
- Took home 6 of the 8 NL MVP awards (Johnny Bench 2, Joe Morgan 2, Pete Rose and George Foster 1 each, and Tony Perez finished 3rd in 1970)
- Perhaps the greatest 8-man lineup in history, featuring 3 Hall of Fame players, the all-time hit king, 3 more players who weren’t too far short of Hall of Fame careers, and a 4-time Gold Glove center fielder
I wanted to play like them. I tried to emulate them….to flap my arm at the plate and to dominate on the basepaths like Joe Morgan, to drive in runs like Tony Perez, to skip a throw off the turf like Dave Concepcion (a trick that didn’t work nearly as well on the sandlot field as it did on Astroturf), to hustle and slide head-first like Pete Rose, to hit a screaming liner with a black bat like George Foster, to gallop after a fly ball and unleash cannon-like throws like Cesar Geronimo, and to slap a ball into the ground and beat out an infield hit like Ken Griffey.
Oh…..also, to try hold seven baseballs in my right hand and to catch like Johnny Bench. I only came up about 4 baseballs short.
So…..I’m telling you this to help establish that, when it comes to the Reds, and to Johnny Bench in particular, my credentials are in "good order". I followed the team, I fell asleep listening to games on the radio, I attended when I could, I watched them whenever they managed to be on TV.
From early on in his career, Johnny Bench established himself as the gold standard of receivers. He was quickly anointed as one of the best of all-time, and he ripped off 10 consecutive Gold Glove awards. There was no question in my area (and many other areas as well)….Johnny Bench was the greatest of all time, especially defensively.
Despite all of that, and despite how much I admired Johnny Bench, I believe in the following statement:
I think Ivan Rodriguez was a better defensive catcher than Johnny Bench.
I suspect that if you were to poll experts, Bench would probably be named the top defensive catcher of all time. There are plenty of worthy candidates….Yogi Berra, Gary Carter, Bob Boone, Jim Hegan, Roy Campanella, Jim Sundberg, Ray Schalk. Steve Yeager, from my neck of the woods (Dayton, OH) was an exceptional defensive catcher, who would have played more if he had been a better hitter. Charles Johnson was a terrific catcher. Yadier Molina is still active, but has already made his case for inclusion in that group. But, I think Bench would win such a vote.
However…..
I think, defensively, Rodriguez was even better than Bench. A lot of this is the "eye test", and certainly subjective on my part. I absolutely loved watching Rodriguez play catcher. As good as Bench was, I think Rodriguez was quicker, and his arm was just as good. I don’t think he’s much better defensively….I think it’s a fine line between them. But, if forced to choose, taking everything into consideration, I’d go with Pudge.
I’m not just saying this to be contrary. To even suggest that someone was better than Bench defensively is fightin’ words in these parts. It would be like badmouthing Skyline Chili, Montgomery Inn ribs, or Graeter’s ice cream, and I’m sure I’ll get kicked out of some local Reds fan clubs for even suggesting it, but I happen to believe it.
Is there any other evidence to support that notion? Let’s look at a few things, no one of which is overwhelming in isolation, but just to look at what’s out there:
Rodriguez was exclusively a catcher
In order to keep his bat in the lineup, Bench played a fair amount of other positions – 1B, 3B, OF. He ended up with about 80% of his 2,193 career games at catcher, roughly 20% at other positions. I wouldn’t have guessed that…..I would have guessed 90% catcher, 10% other positions.
Rodriguez almost never played another position. He played 2,436 games, 2,427 of which were as a catcher (he played 8 at 1B, 1 at 2B). In essence, he was exclusively a catcher. It’s hard to conceive of him playing anywhere else.
To me, that has some meaning when we’re talking about key defensive positions. Luis Aparicio played 100% of his time at SS. They didn’t move him elsewhere when he got older….he just became an old shortstop. Ozzie Smith was the same way…..no shifting to 2B….he played 100% at SS.
Same with Bill Mazeroski, and Brooks Robinson. Well, Maz did play about 10 games at 3B in his last couple of seasons, but that’s pretty minor. These defensive standouts didn’t move as they aged….they got old, but they stayed at their position.
Now, I know they moved Bench around some to keep his bat in the lineup….that’s certainly part of it. And, of course, it was a loony idea to try and make him the regular 3B late in his career. But I think there is some significance to Rodriguez never being moved around. They kept him at catcher.
OK…so that’s the kind of thinking that could just as easily be wrong. What else?
What do the Metrics Imply?
I should mention, before going further, that defensive metrics aren’t always the most persuasive tool in the toolbox. Relatively speaking, a lot of them are still in their infancy, and met with a high degree of skepticism. I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise.
However, I thought it might be interesting to look at catchers across a spectrum of defensive metrics, no one of which is the ultimate arbiter. Still, sometimes looking across various metrics can provide some sense of who tends to do well, and maybe even offer some opportunities for a degree of consensus.
Defensive Games at Catcher
Source: Baserball-reference.com
Admittedly, this one’s pretty "basic". But, a long career at catcher seems consistent with possessing a certain amount of defensive proficiency, doesn’t it? Who has been entrusted with catching the most games?
Player
|
Defensive
Games as C
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
2,427
|
Carlton Fisk
|
2,226
|
Bob Boone
|
2,225
|
Gary Carter
|
2,056
|
Jason Kendall
|
2,025
|
Tony Pena
|
1,950
|
Brad Ausmus
|
1,938
|
A.J. Pierzynski
|
1,936
|
Jim Sundberg
|
1,927
|
Al Lopez
|
1,918
|
I remember Al Lopez famously held the record for many years, but several more recent catchers have surpassed it, with Rodriguez sitting at the top. Generally speaking, I would say that there are some catchers with pretty good defensive reputations on that list, with the possible exception of Kendall and Pierzynski. (Of course, a skeptic might point out that, if Rodriguez were guilty of steroid use, that that could certainly help in this category).
Gold Glove Awards at Catcher
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Another "basic" category, and granted this one contains a high degree of subjectivity and is prone to being awarded more by reputation than anything else. Plus, it only goes back about 60 years. Still, it gives us some insight as to the perception of defensive prowess by those observing the game at a point in time.
Here are the catchers who have won 4 or more. Once again, Rodriguez is at the top with 13, the first 10 of which were consecutive. Bench, of course, also famously won 10 in a row. Molina won his 8 in a row, his string broken by Buster Posey in 2016. Perez has won the last 4 AL Gold Gloves, and at 26 could be in line for a few more before he’s through.
Player
|
Gold Gloves
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
13
|
Johnny Bench
|
10
|
Yadier Molina
|
8
|
Bob Boone
|
7
|
Jim Sundberg
|
6
|
Bill Freehan
|
5
|
Del Crandall
|
4
|
Charles Johnson
|
4
|
Mike Matheny
|
4
|
Tony Pena
|
4
|
Salvador Perez
|
4
|
Fielding Wins Above Replacement
Source: Seamheads.com
This metric is the same as dWAR that you would find on Baseball-reference.com, but with the "positional adjustment" removed, so if you’re comparing those figures, that will explain the difference.
Players
|
Fielding Wins above Replacement
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
14.5
|
Gary Carter
|
14.3
|
Jim Sundberg
|
12.1
|
Charlie Bennett
|
12.0
|
Yadier Molina
|
11.9
|
Bob Boone
|
11.4
|
Johnny Bench
|
9.8
|
Steve Yeager
|
8.4
|
Brad Ausmus
|
7.9
|
Rick Dempsey
|
7.6
|
Once again, Rodriguez tops the list, edging out Carter.
A pretty good list….certainly contains several names you’d expect to see at the top, including that favorite of the "old-timey" crowd, Charlie Bennett. Every catcher on the list won multiple Gold Gloves except for Bennett (who last played about 60 years before they started the award), Yeager, and Dempsey, but they were all outstanding defensive catchers by reputation.
The next 10 on that list includes defensive standouts such as Charles Johnson, Del Crandall, Ron Karkovice, Randy Hundley, and Tony Pena.
Fielding Win Shares
Source: Seamheads.com
Players
|
Fielding Win Shares
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
150.1
|
Gary Carter
|
127.0
|
Bob Boone
|
117.4
|
Jim Sundberg
|
111.9
|
Johnny Bench
|
109.5
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
109.1
|
Brad Ausmus
|
106.2
|
Yogi Berra
|
105.7
|
Carlton Fisk
|
104.9
|
Tony Pena
|
103.8
|
There are several of the same names that appeared on the prior lists, and also includes others like Berra and Hartnett, both of whom had stellar defensive reputations as well .
The next 10 names on that list includes catchers with stellar defensive reputations such as Lance Parrish, Yadier Molina, Ray Schalk, Bill Dickey, Al Lopez, Del Crandall, and Jim Hegan.
Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average
Source: Baseball-reference.com as provided by BaseballProjection.com
Defined as "the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made."
Note – this has to be taken with a grain of salt, as it tends to exclude pre-1950’s catchers, so it’s more relevant for catchers over the past 60 years or so. Still, it contains a lot of the familiar names you’d expect to find:
Player
|
Total Zone Runs as C
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
167
|
Yadier Molina
|
130
|
Jim Sundberg
|
114
|
Bob Boone
|
107
|
Gary Carter
|
106
|
Brad Ausmus
|
99
|
Johnny Bench
|
97
|
Del Crandall
|
72
|
Charles Johnson
|
71
|
Rick Dempsey
|
70
|
Steve Yeager
|
70
|
Again, several players are common to the previous lists. The next 10 on the list includes such names as Clay Dalrymple, Ron Karkovice, Mike Matheny, and Tom Pagnozzi.
Caught Stealing %
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Here’s one you may not have seen before – the # of times a catcher led his league in Caught Stealing %.
Player
|
Times Led League in Caught Stealing %
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
9
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
6
|
Roy Campanella
|
5
|
Yadier Molina
|
4
|
Bill Dickey
|
3
|
Bob Boone
|
3
|
Buddy Rosar
|
3
|
Gary Carter
|
3
|
Hank Gowdy
|
3
|
Jim Hegan
|
3
|
Johnny Bench
|
3
|
Lou Criger
|
3
|
Ray Schalk
|
3
|
Ron Karkovice
|
3
|
Granted, caught stealing data is a little erratic over the full span of history, and for some seasons the data is incomplete.
For what it’s worth, Rodriguez kind of dominates the field here in terms of how often he was the league leader. His "bold ink" in this category is impressive, as are Gabby Hartnett’s and Roy Campanella’s.
It’s also interesting to look at career caught stealing %’s vs. league norms. I compiled this table of some of the top catchers in history (not just the defensive standouts) and came up with CS% "Plus", which is sort of like ERA+ or OPS+, in that it indexes/normalizes the figure in context.
In this case, I took the catcher’s caught stealing % and indexed it against the league average for the years of his career (according to baseball-reference.com). If the catcher’s CS % is the same as the league average, CS%+ would be 100, as it is in Ted Simmons’ case. The "+/-" in the final column is just the difference in percentage points between the catcher’s figure and the league average. In other words, Rodriguez’s 46% CS% figure is 15 percentage points better than the league average during his career of 31%.
In this list, Rodriguez has one of the more impressive "relative" figures, behind only Molina (who’s still active). Yes, others surpassed his 46% figure, but he did so in an era where the norm was 31%. Campanella’s was an impressive 57%, but league CS norms were higher in his era (42%), which (at least looking at it in this way) makes Rodriguez’s figure a little more impressive. Campanella and Hartnett do rate very high even by this measure, though.
As you probably know, caught stealing %’s have been on the decline for quite a while. They were around 45% or so for much of the early part of the 1900’s, then by the 1960’s they started dropping into the mid-to-high 30%’s, and in the past decade they’ve been mostly in the 25-30% range.
The less said about Piazza’s figure the better……
Player
|
CS %
|
League Avg
|
CS% +
|
+/- vs. Lg
|
Yadier Molina
|
42%
|
28%
|
150
|
14
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
46%
|
31%
|
148
|
15
|
Roy Campanella
|
57%
|
42%
|
136
|
15
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
56%
|
44%
|
127
|
12
|
Charles Johnson
|
39%
|
31%
|
126
|
8
|
Salvador Perez
|
35%
|
28%
|
125
|
7
|
Johnny Bench
|
43%
|
35%
|
123
|
8
|
Joe Mauer
|
33%
|
27%
|
122
|
6
|
Bob Boone
|
40%
|
33%
|
121
|
7
|
Al Lopez
|
54%
|
45%
|
120
|
9
|
Lance Parrish
|
39%
|
33%
|
118
|
6
|
Jim Sundberg
|
41%
|
35%
|
117
|
6
|
Brad Ausmus
|
35%
|
30%
|
117
|
5
|
Ray Schalk
|
51%
|
44%
|
116
|
7
|
Thurman Munson
|
44%
|
38%
|
116
|
6
|
Steve Yeager
|
38%
|
33%
|
115
|
5
|
Del Crandall
|
46%
|
40%
|
115
|
6
|
Bill Dickey
|
47%
|
41%
|
115
|
6
|
Rick Dempsey
|
40%
|
35%
|
114
|
5
|
Gary Carter
|
35%
|
32%
|
109
|
3
|
Tony Pena
|
35%
|
32%
|
109
|
3
|
Yogi Berra
|
49%
|
45%
|
109
|
4
|
Jim Hegan
|
50%
|
46%
|
109
|
4
|
Rick Ferrell
|
44%
|
41%
|
107
|
3
|
Ernie Lombardi
|
48%
|
45%
|
107
|
3
|
Wally Schang
|
46%
|
44%
|
105
|
2
|
Gene Tenace
|
36%
|
35%
|
103
|
1
|
Ted Simmons
|
34%
|
34%
|
100
|
0
|
Roger Bresnahan
|
44%
|
45%
|
98
|
-1
|
Bill Freehan
|
37%
|
38%
|
97
|
-1
|
Carlton Fisk
|
34%
|
35%
|
97
|
-1
|
Jason Kendall
|
29%
|
30%
|
97
|
-1
|
Jorge Posada
|
28%
|
30%
|
93
|
-2
|
Mickey Cochrane
|
39%
|
42%
|
93
|
-3
|
Mike Piazza
|
23%
|
31%
|
74
|
-8
|
Fangraphs DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average)
Source: Fangraphs.com
Name
|
Def
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
317.1
|
Bob Boone
|
232.2
|
Jim Sundberg
|
223.7
|
Gary Carter
|
222.1
|
Yadier Molina
|
193.6
|
Brad Ausmus
|
178.7
|
Charlie Bennett
|
168.7
|
Johnny Bench
|
161.4
|
Tony Pena
|
155.1
|
Rick Dempsey
|
154.5
|
This one’s pretty consistent with a couple of the other lists, repeating many of the same, familiar names.
Wrapping it Up
The point of all of this was not to overwhelm anyone with defensive statistics, or to even argue the merit or validity of them. I think defensive metrics are still very much evolving very rapidly, and I’m sure they have a ways to go before they acquire the power of language. We don’t have the same level of confidence in them that we do with offensive metrics, especially the further back we go in history.
So, this wasn’t a statement on anything like that. Bill once made a comment along the lines of how we tend to evaluate hitters by results. We don’t evaluate hitters by how pretty their swing is. But, we tend to evaluate fielders by how good they look doing their job. I think there’s still a lot of truth to that, even as defensive metrics progress in their development.
The point of reviewing this spectrum of metrics and awards was merely to observe that:
a) It sure seems like the same catchers tend to do well across a spectrum of these categories
b) The catchers that seem to do well also seem to be ones that have good defensive reputations
c) Ivan Rodriguez is consistently at or near the top of them.
So, Rodriguez appealed to the "eye test" side of me, and the metrics, such as they are at this point, certainly seem consistent with his reputation as a superior catcher.
So, take this for what you wish. In my opinion, the top defensive catchers of all time are: Ivan Rodriguez, Johnny Bench, Roy Campanella, Bob Boone, and Jim Hegan. By reputation, Biz Mackey should probably be in there somewhere too. Gary Carter, Jim Sundberg, Gabby Hartnett, Yogi Berra, Ray Schalk, and Buck Ewing probably all merit honorable mention as well for their prowess and reputations earned in their various eras, and Yadier Molina might force his way into the upper echelon by the time he’s done.
For my money, though, this diehard Reds fan picks Ivan Rodriguez as the #1 defensive catcher that I’ve ever seen. I’ll still take Bench overall, if we’re including both offense and defense. But, if we’re strictly talking defense, I’m giving the nod to Rodriguez.
Put in the simplest of terms….he checks all the boxes for me. He’s got the awards. He has the metrics. But, most of all, as a fan, I thoroughly enjoyed watching him behind the plate.
To paraphrase a quote….Rodriguez didn’t make you forget Bench….he made you remember him. And then some.
That’s my opinion, and I’m sticking to it. I’m looking forward to see how the voters evaluate him.
Thanks for reading,
Dan